Outlier separability analysis with a multiple alternative hypotheses test   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ling Yang  Jinling Wang  Nathan L. Knight  Yunzhong Shen 《Journal of Geodesy》2013,87(6):591-604

Outlier separability analysis is a fundamental component of modern geodetic measurement analysis, positioning, navigation, and many other applications. The current theory of outlier separability is based on using two alternative hypotheses—an assumption that may not necessarily be valid. In this paper, the current theory of outlier separability is statistically analysed and then extended to the general case, where there are multiple alternative hypotheses. Taking into consideration the complexity of the critical region and the probability density function of the outlier test, the bounds of the associated statistical decision probabilities are then developed. With this theory, the probabilities of committing type I, II, and III errors can be controlled so that the probability of successful identification of an outlier can be guaranteed when performing data snooping. The theoretical findings are then demonstrated using a simulated GPS point positioning example. Detailed analysis shows that the larger the correlation coefficient, between the outlier statistics, the smaller the probability of committing a type II error and the greater the probability of committing a type III error. When the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.8, there is a far greater chance of committing a type III error than committing a type II error. In addition, to guarantee successful identification of an outlier with a set probability, the minimal detectable size of the outlier (often called the Minimal Detectable Bias or MDB) should dramatically increase with the correlation coefficient.  相似文献   

Origin of glacial ridges (OIS 6) in the Kaskaskia Sublobe,southwestern Illinois,USA     

Nathan D. Webb  David A. Grimley  Andrew C. Phillips  Bruce W. Fouke 《Quaternary Research》2012,78(2):341-352

The origin of Illinois Episode (OIS 6) glacial ridges (formerly: ‘Ridged Drift’) in the Kaskaskia Basin of southwestern Illinois is controversial despite a century of research. Two studied ridges, containing mostly fluvial sand (OSL ages: ~ 150 ± 19 ka), with associated debris flows and high-angle reverse faults, are interpreted as ice-walled channels. A third studied ridge, containing mostly fine-grained till, is arcuate and morainal. The spatial arrangement of various ridge types can be explained by a glacial sublobe in the Kaskaskia Basin, with mainly fine-grained ridges along the sublobe margins and coarse-grained glaciofluvial ridges in a paleodrainage network within the sublobe interior. Illinois Episode till fabric and striation data demonstrate southwesterly ice flow that may diverge near the sublobe terminus. The sublobe likely formed as glacial ice thinned and receded from its maximum extent. The Kaskaskia Basin contains some of the best-preserved Illinois Episode constructional glacial landforms in the North American midcontinent. Such distinctive features probably result from ice flow and sedimentation into this former lowland, in addition to minimal postglacial erosion. Other similar OIS 6 glacial landforms may exist in association with previously unrecognized sublobes in the midcontinent, where paleo-lowlands might also have focused glacial sedimentation.  相似文献   

Non-monotonic Responses of Phytoplankton Biomass Accumulation to Hydrologic Variability: A Comparison of Two Coastal Plain North Carolina Estuaries     

Benjamin L. Peierls  Nathan S. Hall  Hans W. Paerl 《Estuaries and Coasts》2012,35(6):1376-1392

Freshwater inputs often play a more direct role in estuarine phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) accumulation than nitrogen (N) inputs, since discharge simultaneously controls both phytoplankton residence time and N loading. Understanding this link is critical, given potential changes in climate and human activities that may affect discharge and watershed N supply. Chlorophyll a (chla) relationships with hydrologic variability were examined in 3-year time series from two neighboring, shallow (<5?m), microtidal estuaries (New and Neuse River estuaries, NC, USA) influenced by the same climatic conditions and events. Under conditions ranging from drought to floods, N concentration and salinity showed direct positive and negative responses, respectively, to discharge for both estuaries. The response of chla to discharge was more complex, but was elucidated through conversion of discharge to freshwater flushing time, an estimate of transport time scale. Non-linear fits of chla to flushing time revealed non-monotonic, unimodal relationships that reflected the changing balance between intrinsic growth and losses through time and along the axis of each estuary. Maximum biomass occurred at approximately 10-day flushing times for both systems. Residual analysis of the fitted data revealed positive relationships between chla and temperature, suggesting enhanced growth rates at higher temperatures. N loading and system-wide, volume-weighted chla were positively correlated, and biomass yields per N load were greater than other marine systems. When combined with information on loss processes, these results on the hydrologic control of phytoplankton biomass will help formulate mechanistic models necessary to predict ecosystem responses to future climate and anthropogenic changes.  相似文献   

Forest–savanna–morichal dynamics in relation to fire and human occupation in the southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) during the last millennia     

Encarni Montoya  Valentí Rull  Nathan D. Stansell  Mark B. Abbott  Sandra Nogué  Broxton W. Bird  Wilmer A. Díaz 《Quaternary Research》2011,76(3):335-344

The southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) holds a particular type of neotropical savanna characterized by the local occurrence of morichales (Mauritia palm swamps), in a climate apparently more suitable for rain forests. We present a paleoecological analysis of the last millennia of Lake Chonita (4°39′N–61°0′W, 884 m elevation), based on biological and physico-chemical proxies. Savannas dominated the region during the last millennia, but a significant vegetation replacement occurred in recent times. The site was covered by a treeless savanna with nearby rainforests from 3640 to 2180 cal yr BP. Water levels were higher than today until about 2800 cal yr BP. Forests retreated since about 2180 cal yr BP onwards, likely influenced by a higher fire incidence that facilitated a dramatic expansion of morichales. The simultaneous appearance of charcoal particles and Mauritia pollen around 2000 cal yr BP supports the potential pyrophilous nature of this palm and the importance of fire for its recent expansion. The whole picture suggests human settlements similar to today – in which fire is an essential element – since around 2000 yr ago. Therefore, present-day southern Gran Sabana landscapes seem to have been the result of the synergy between biogeographical, climatic and anthropogenic factors, mostly fire.  相似文献   

Global extent and distribution of artificial, residential waterways in estuaries     

Nathan J. Waltham  Rod M. Connolly 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011,94(2):192-197

Artificial residential waterways are now widespread in the world’s estuaries. We used the global mapping tool, Google Earth, to determine that there are nearly 4000 linear km of artificial waterways globally, covering an area of 270 km². Residential waterways constructed as open, flow-through canal estates are at their greatest extent in North America (77% of global linear extent), where systems are typically longer and narrower, with more openings and dead-ends than systems elsewhere. The remaining canal estates are spread across all other continents except Antarctica: Asia (7%), Europe (7%), Oceania (7%), South America (0.9%), and Africa (0.6%). A relatively recent design change from open canals to artificial estuarine lakes with tidal barriers has occurred on all continents except Africa, most extensively in Australia (14 km² area, 57 independent systems). The extremely large expansion in artificial residential waterways aimed at increasing opportunities for waterfront living by humans has also modified and expanded estuarine habitat available to aquatic biota. Research can best underpin planning and management of these types of waterways by focussing on their value as habitat and their provision of other goods and services.  相似文献   

Distributed deformation around the eastern tip of the Kunlun fault   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Eric Kirby  Nathan Harkins 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,102(7):1759-1772

Whether active strain within the Indo-Asian collision zone is primarily localized along major strike-slip fault systems or is distributed throughout the intervening crust between faults remains uncertain. Despite refined estimates of slip rates along many of the major fault zones, relatively little is known about how displacement along these structures is accommodated at fault terminations. Here, we show that a systematic decrease in left-lateral slip rates along the eastern ~200 km of the Kunlun fault, from >10 mm/year to <1 mm/year, is coincident with high topography in the Anyemaqen Shan and with a broad zone of distributed shear and clockwise vorticity within the Tibetan Plateau. Geomorphic analysis of river longitudinal profiles, coupled with inventories of cosmogenic radionuclides in fluvial sediment, reveal correlated variations in fluvial relief and erosion rate across the Anyemaqen Shan that reflect ongoing differential rock uplift across the range. Our results imply that the termination of the Kunlun fault system is accommodated by a combination of distributed crustal thickening and by clockwise rotation of the eastern fault segments.  相似文献   

Tsunami exposure estimation with land-cover data: Oregon and the Cascadia subduction zone     

Nathan Wood 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2009,29(2):158-170

A Cascadia subduction-zone earthquake has the potential to generate tsunami waves which would impact more than 1000 km of coastline on the west coast of the United States and Canada. Although the predictable extent of tsunami inundation is similar for low-lying land throughout the region, human use of tsunami-prone land varies, creating variations in community exposure and potential impacts. To better understand such variations, land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery (e.g., 30-m-resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery) was coupled with tsunami-hazard information to describe tsunami-prone land along the Oregon coast. Land-cover data suggest that 95% of the tsunami-prone land in Oregon is undeveloped and is primarily wetlands and unconsolidated shores. Based on Spearman rank correlation coefficients (r_s), correlative relationships are strong and statistically significant (p < 0.05) between city-level estimates of the amount of land-cover pixels classified as developed (impervious cover greater than 20%) and the amount of various societal assets, including residential and employee populations, homes, businesses, and tax-parcel values. Community exposure to tsunami hazards, described here by the amount and relative percentage of developed land in tsunami-prone areas, varies considerably among the 26 communities of the study area, and these variations relate to city size. Correlative relationships are strong and significant (p < 0.05) for community exposure rankings based on land-cover data and those based on aggregated socioeconomic data. In the absence of socioeconomic data or community-based knowledge, the integration of hazards information and land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery to estimate community exposure may be a useful first step in understanding variations in community vulnerability to regional hazards.  相似文献   

An integrated lake-catchment approach for determining sediment source changes at Aqualate Mere,Central England     

Nathan J. Pittam  Ian D. L. Foster  Tim M. Mighall 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,42(2):215-232

This paper raises fundamental questions about the sole use of paleolimnological techniques to identify sediment sources and develop catchment management plans. The concept of an integrated lake: catchment framework was established 30 years ago, yet paleolimnologists occasionally fail to appreciate the dynamics of the contributing catchment. This is especially critical when the predominant source of sediment accumulating in a lake is allochthonous. In this paper we argue that a detailed appraisal of catchment sources and investigation of historical documentary evidence is needed to identify and evaluate the relative significance of sediment sources. We used such an approach at Aqualate Mere, Shropshire, UK. Mineral magnetic and radionculide signatures of potential catchment sources and accumulating lake sediments were compared in an attempt to match the sources to sediments deposited in the Mere. Dated lake sediments indicate there has been an increase in sedimentation rate and the relative amount of minerogenic material delivered to the Mere over the last 200 years. In contrast to a previous study at the same site, there is no evidence to attribute this increase to an overspill from a nearby canal. Other catchment disturbances include landscaping in parkland surrounding the Mere in the early nineteenth century and drainage systems installed to improve catchment agriculture over the last ca. 150 years. Both activities may explain the change in sedimentation rates and types, independent of the hypothesized canal origin. Although our results exclude the canal as a major sediment source, identifying the contribution of other potential catchment sources remains problematic. ¹³⁷Cs inventories for the lake are similar to those recorded at a local reference site, suggesting little influx of ¹³⁷Cs-bearing topsoil, yet ¹³⁷Cs activities remain high in the upper 20–30 cm of the lake sediment profile, indicating a topsoil origin. Combined radionuclide and mineral magnetic signatures proved to be relatively poor discriminators of potential sources, and the high atmospheric pollution load from the West Midland conurbation has probably altered recent lake sediment signatures. Although further research is required to identify the origins of recent (last ca. 200 years) minerogenic sediment inputs to the Mere, we suggest that the combined lake: catchment approach offers a more rigorous method for understanding the impact of catchment disturbance than analysis of the paleolimnological record alone.  相似文献   

Climate change in Lake Baikal: diatom evidence in an area of continuous sedimentation     

M. Bangs  R. W. Battarbee  R. J. Flower  D. Jewson  J. A. Lees  M. Sturm  E. G. Vologina  A. W. Mackay 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2000,89(2):251-259

The presence of inhomogeneous sedimentation is acknowledged as being an important problem in palaeolimnological studies. Sediment records can be disturbed by erosional and redepositional events, which redeposit microfossils within a basin and may then lead to misinterpretations of fossil diatom assemblages. This study uses a combination of sedimentological tools, magnetic susceptibility measurements and high-resolution diatom analysis to show that a sediment core, BAIK80, taken in 345 m water depth from a shoulder region in the North Basin of Lake Baikal, is free of disturbances. Our results confirm that the sediment record is consistent and continuous for the uppermost sediment. Consequently, the fossil diatom data can be used to establish a continuous record of past climate variability over approximately the past 1300 years. Distinct changes occur in downcore abundances of endemic taxa Aulacoseira baicalensis and Cyclotella minuta, and principal components analysis (PCA) indicates a gradual transformation of taxa over the past 1300 years. These changes are likely to be related to climate, although definite links still have to be established. Received: 15 December 1998 / Accepted: 13 September 1999  相似文献   

Method‐dependent influence of environmental variables on reef fish assemblages when comparing trap and video surveys     

Nathan R. Geraldi  Nathan M. Bacheler  G. Todd Kellison 《Marine Ecology》2019,40(1)

Despite substantial survey effort and a large body of literature on abiotic and biotic factors in temperate reef ecosystems, knowledge of the complex and interactive effects of environmental variables on those communities is limited. Various survey methods have been developed to study environmental predictors of biodiversity, but there remains a gap in our understanding of how survey results are influenced by environmental factors. Here, we surveyed the fish assemblage associated with southeastern U.S. temperate marine reefs with simultaneous, paired trap, and camera gears throughout a ~50,000 km² area during 2011–2013 and assessed the influence of environmental variables on the trap‐ and video‐surveyed assemblages. Predictor variables in the multivariate general linear models included depth, temperature, month, year, location, substrate relief, percent sessile biota, biota type, and turbidity. Depth and latitude had the greatest influence on the fish assemblage for both gears. The influence of habitat variables differed between methods and percent biota explained more variation in the fish assemblage when assessed by traps, while substrate relief and biota type explained more variation in the fish assemblage when assessed by video. In general, habitat complexity was positively related to the abundance of fishes in the video survey, but there was a negative relationship in the trap survey. Differences between gears were species‐specific and the influences of environmental variables were similar for some species such as Haemulon plumierii and Hyporthodus niveatus. The methods presented here can be used to assess method‐dependent differences in fish assemblages, which is a necessary precursor to assess the effect of environmental variables on the accuracy of surveys.  相似文献