On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia     

Christopher J. White  Kathleen L. McInnes  Robert P. Cechet  Stuart P. Corney  Michael R. Grose  Gregory K. Holz  Jack J. Katzfey  Nathaniel L. Bindoff 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3145-3165

The ability of an ensemble of six GCMs, downscaled to a 0.1° lat/lon grid using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model over Tasmania, Australia, to simulate observed extreme temperature and precipitation climatologies and statewide trends is assessed for 1961–2009 using a suite of extreme indices. The downscaled simulations have high skill in reproducing extreme temperatures, with the majority of models reproducing the statewide averaged sign and magnitude of recent observed trends of increasing warm days and warm nights and decreasing frost days. The warm spell duration index is however underestimated, while variance is generally overrepresented in the extreme temperature range across most regions. The simulations show a lower level of skill in modelling the amplitude of the extreme precipitation indices such as very wet days, but simulate the observed spatial patterns and variability. In general, simulations of dry extreme precipitation indices are underestimated in dryer areas and wet extremes indices are underestimated in wetter areas. Using two SRES emissions scenarios, the simulations indicate a significant increase in warm nights compared to a slightly more moderate increase in warm days, and an increase in maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation intensities interspersed with longer consecutive dry spells across Tasmania during the twenty-first century.  相似文献   

Redox evolution in glacial drift aquifers: role of diamicton units in reduction of Fe(III)     

Nathaniel A. Barnes  Alan E. Kehew  R. V. Krishnamurthy  Carla M. Koretsky 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,62(5):1027-1038

High iron concentrations create water quality problems for municipal use in glacial drift aquifer units. The chemical evolution of oxic groundwater in shallow aquifer units to anoxic groundwater in deeper aquifer units, in which soluble Fe(II) is stable, is attributed to coupled reduction of Fe(III) on aquifer solids with oxidation of organic carbon. The objective of this study was to characterize the distribution of organic carbon in aquifer and aquitard sediments to determine the availability of potential electron donors to drive these reactions. To do this, four complete rotasonic cores in a glacial aquifer/aquitard system were sampled at close intervals for analyses of grain-size distribution and organic carbon content. The results indicate significantly higher organic carbon concentrations in diamicton (till) units that function as aquitards, relative to coarse-grained aquifer units. In addition, readily reducible iron content in the diamicton units and lower aquifer unit materials is sufficient to produce far more dissolved iron than is present in the aquifer. Groundwater evolves to the level of iron reduction as a terminal electron-accepting process as it moves downward through aquitard units along flow paths from upland recharge areas to downgradient discharge areas. Deeper aquifer units are therefore unlikely to contain groundwater with low iron concentration.  相似文献   

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models     

Nathaniel G. Plant  K. Todd Holland 《Coastal Engineering》2011

Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.  相似文献   

Introduction     

Lewis A. Owen  James T. Teller  Nathaniel W. Rutter 《Global and Planetary Change》2002,32(4)

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Velocity-Resolved Observations of Hα Emission From Comet C/1995 O1 (Hale–Bopp)     

Morgenthaler  Jeffrey P.  Harris  Walter M.  Scherb  Frank  Doane  Nathaniel E.  Oliversen  Ronald J. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2002,90(1-4):89-97

We present hydrogen Balmer-α spectra of comet C/1995 O1(Hale–Bopp) recorded on 5 nights from 1997 February 1 to April 19 by ahigh-resolution (Δ v = 5 km s^-1) Fabry–Pérot spectrometer for a4'.1 (∼2.7 × 10⁵ km) FOV centered 5' sunwardof the nucleus. The Hα line profile is an important diagnostic ofphotolytic heating in cometary atmospheres. Extraction of the spectrafrom the Fabry–Pérot ring images was complicated by obscuration of the telescope FOV due to Hale–Bopp's low elevation, but the measuredH-α line widths of 11–13 km s^-1 (FWHM) are insensitive to the spectral extraction technique. The line widths are consistent withestimates derived from a successful model of Hale–Bopp's hydrogenLyman-α coma assuming the inner coma is opaque to Hα. Wediscuss methods for improving the spectral extraction technique andderiving a precise instrument profile which will allow the detailedshape of the line profile to constrain coma models.  相似文献   

Cosmogenic dating of Late Pleistocene glaciation,southern tropical Andes,Peru          下载免费PDF全文

Jeremy D. Shakun  Peter U. Clark  Shaun A. Marcott  Edward J. Brook  Nathaniel A. Lifton  Marc Caffee  William R. Shakun 《第四纪科学杂志》2015,30(8):841-847

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Apparent thermal inertia and the surface heterogeneity of Mars     

Nathaniel E. Putzig  Michael T. Mellon 《Icarus》2007,191(1):68-94

Thermal inertia derivation techniques generally assume that surface properties are uniform at horizontal scales below the footprint of the observing instrument and to depths of several decimeters. Consequently, surfaces with horizontal or vertical heterogeneity may yield apparent thermal inertia which varies with time of day and season. To investigate these temporal variations, we processed three Mars years of Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations and produced global nightside and dayside seasonal maps of apparent thermal inertia. These maps show broad regions with diurnal and seasonal differences up to 200 J m⁻² K⁻¹s^−1/2 at mid-latitudes (60° S to 60° N) and 600 J m⁻² K⁻¹s^−1/2 or greater in the polar regions. We compared the seasonal mapping results with modeled apparent thermal inertia and created new maps of surface heterogeneity at 5° resolution, delineating regions that have thermal characteristics consistent with horizontal mixtures or layers of two materials. The thermal behavior of most regions on Mars appears to be dominated by layering, with upper layers of higher thermal inertia (e.g., duricrusts or desert pavements over fines) prevailing in mid-latitudes and upper layers of lower thermal inertia (e.g., dust-covered rock, soils with an ice table at shallow depths) prevailing in polar regions. Less common are regions dominated by horizontal mixtures, such as those containing differing proportions of rocks, sand, dust, and duricrust or surfaces with divergent local slopes. Other regions show thermal behavior that is more complex and not well-represented by two-component surface models. These results have important implications for Mars surface geology, climate modeling, landing-site selection, and other endeavors that employ thermal inertia as a tool for characterizing surface properties.  相似文献   

High resolution characterization of northwest Mediterranean coastal waters thermal regimes: To better understand responses of benthic communities to climate change     

Nathaniel Bensoussan  Jean-Claude Romano  Jean-Georges Harmelin  Joaquim Garrabou 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

In the North West Mediterranean (NWM), mass mortality events (MME) of long-lived benthic species that have occurred over the last two decades have been related to regional warming trend. Gaining robust data sets on thermal regimes is critical to assess conditions to which species have adapted, detect extreme events and critically evaluate biological impacts. High resolution temperature (T) time series obtained during 1999–2006 from 5 to 40 m depth at four contrasted sites of the NWM were analyzed: Area Marina Protegida de les Illes Medes (NE Spain), Riou (Marseilles, France), Parc National de Port-Cros (France), and Réserve Naturelle de Scandola (Corsica, France). The seasonal pattern showed winter T around 11–13 °C, and summer T mainly around 22–24 °C near surface to 18–20 °C at depth. Stratification dynamics showed recurrent downwellings (>40 m) at Medes, frequent observation (1/3rd of the summer) of deep and cold upwelled waters at Riou, while Scandola exhibited stable summer stratification and highest suprathermoclinal T. Port-Cros showed an intermediate regime that oscillated between Riou and Scandola depending on the occurrence of northern winds. Data distribution study permitted to identify and to characterize 3 large scale positive anomalies concomitant with the mass mortality outbreaks of summers 1999, 2003 and 2006. The analysis of biological surveys on gorgonian populations showed significant impacts during the 3 years with temperature anomalies. Besides the degree of impact showed inter-annual differences which could be related to different T conditions concomitant to mortality events, from slight increase in T extreme of only 1–2 °C over short duration, to lengthened more classical summer conditions. Our results therefore support the hypothesis that shallow NWM populations of long-lived benthic species are living near their upper thermal thresholds. Given actual trends and projections in NWM, the repetition of new MMEs in the next decades is extremely likely. In such context, the acquisition of dedicated high resolution T series proves to be crucial for increasing our detection, understanding and forecasting abilities.  相似文献   

Beach Wizard: Nearshore bathymetry estimation through assimilation of model computations and remote observations   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Ap van Dongeren  Nathaniel Plant  Anna Cohen  Dano Roelvink  Merrick C. Haller  Patricio Cataln 《Coastal Engineering》2008,55(12):1016-1027

A data–model assimilation method (called “Beach Wizard”) is presented with which the nearshore subtidal bathymetry can be accurately estimated based on video-derived observations of wave roller dissipation and variation of the intertidal shoreline, and/or radar-derived observations of wave celerity. Using many consecutive images, these observed properties are compared with numerical model results, and through a simple, optimal least-squares estimator approach the estimated bathymetry is adjusted gradually for each image in order to improve the fit between model output and observations. The key advantages of the technique are that it is based on multiple sources of information (i.e., different remote sensors and/or data products), depends on only a few free parameters (to which the model results are insensitive), and shows good skill. Herein, the technique is applied to a synthetic case and two sets of field data from sites at Duck, NC (USA) and Egmond (The Netherlands). The method, which may be extended with observations of other properties from other sources than the three described in this paper, can deliver coastal state information (i.e., simultaneous updates of bathymetry, waves, and currents) with high temporal and spatial resolution and can be used in conjunction with or instead of in-situ measured data.  相似文献   

Dracunculiasis,Proximity, and Risk: Analyzing the Location of Guinea Worm Disease in a GIS     

Nathaniel Royal 《Transactions in GIS》2013,17(2):298-312

Dracunculus medinesis is a waterborne parasite that has afflicted human populations for millennia. It is spread to new water bodies by the travel activities of the humans it affects. This study analyzes the relationship between Guinea worm incidence and its proximity to features of the built and natural environment to identify any apparent relationships. The study examines the Tillabéri region in the country Niger where there was a reemergence in the number of cases of Guinea worm in 2003. It is found that population centers with Guinea worm infected individuals are often within two kilometers of nomadic herding routes.  相似文献