Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Jon Barnett  W. Neil Adger 《Climatic change》2003,61(3):321-337

Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.  相似文献   

Exhumation in a convergent orogen: the western Tauern window   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bernhard Fiigenschuh  Diane Seward  Neil Mancktelow 《地学学报》1997,9(5-6):213-217

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Modelling the compliance of crustal rock—II. Response to temporal changes before earthquakes     

Stuart Crampin  Sergei V. Zatsepin 《Geophysical Journal International》1997,129(3):495-506

There have been several claims that seismic shear waves respond to changes in stress before earthquakes. The companion paper develops a stress-sensitive model (APE) for the behaviour of low-porosity low-permeability crystalline rocks containing pervasive distributions of fluid-filled intergranular microcracks, and this paper uses APE to model the behaviour before earthquakes. Modelling with APE shows that the microgeometry and statistics of distributions of such fluid-filled microcracks respond almost immediately to changes in stress, and that the behaviour can be monitored by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting. The physical reasons for the coupling between shear-wave splitting and differential stress are discussed.
In this paper, we extend the model by using percolation theory to show that large crack densities are limited at the grain-scale level by the percolation threshold at which interacting crack clusters lead to pronounced increases in rock-matrix permeability. In the simplest formulation, the modelling is dimensionless and almost entirely constrained without free parameters. Nevertheless, APE modelling of the evolution of fluid-saturated rocks under stress reproduces the observed fracture criticality and the narrow range of shear-wave azimuthal anisotropy in crustal rocks. It also reproduces the behaviour of temporal variations in shear-wave splitting observed before and after the 1986, M = 6, North Palm Springs earthquake, Southern California, and several other smaller earthquakes.
The agreement of APE modelling with a wide range of observations confirms that fluid-saturated crystalline rocks are stress-sensitive and respond to changes in stress by critical fluid-rock interactions at the microscale level. This means that the effects of changes in stress and other parameters can be numerically modelled and monitored by appropriate observations of seismic shear waves.  相似文献   

Shear-wave anisotropy: spatial and temporal variations in time delays at Parkfield, Central California   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Yun Liu  Stuart Crampin  Ian Main 《Geophysical Journal International》1997,130(3):771-785

Shear-wave splitting is analysed on data recorded by the High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN) at Parkfield on the San Andreas fault, Central California, during the three-year period 1988-1990. Shear-wave polarizations either side of the fault are generally aligned in directions consistent with the regional horizontal maximum compressive stress, at some 70° to the fault strike, whereas at station MM in the immediate fault zone, shear-wave polarizations are aligned approximately parallel to the fault. Normalized time delays at this station are found to be about twice as large as those in the rock mass either side. This suggests that fluid-filled cracks and fractures within the fault zone are elastically or seismically different from those in the surrounding rocks, and that the alignment of fault-parallel shear-wave polarizations are associated with some fault-specific phenomenon.
Temporal variations in time delays between the two split shear-waves before and after a M_L = 4 earthquake can be identified at two stations with sufficient data: MM within the fault zone and VC outside the immediate fault zone. Time delays between faster and slower split shear waves increase before the M_L = 4 earthquake and decrease near the time of the event. The temporal variations are statistically significant at 68 per cent confidence levels. Earthquake doublets and multiplets also show similar temporal variations, consistent with those predicted by anisotropic poroelasticity theory for stress modifications to the microcrack geometry pervading the rock mass. This study is broadly consistent with the behaviour observed before three other earthquakes, suggesting that the build-up of stress before earthquakes may be monitored and interpreted by the analysis of shear-wave splitting.  相似文献   

Transmission Properties of A Plane Fault     

J. A. Hudson  Enru Liu  Stuart Crampin 《Geophysical Journal International》1996,125(2):559-566

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Interplanetary MIST     

Neil Arnold 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2004,45(1):1.27-1.28

The London MIST meeting in November covered current research using satellites to investigate planetary environments across the solar system, including our own. Earth-bound instruments, GPS and modelling also came under discussion, as did a series of results from the Cluster mission. Neil Arnold reports.  相似文献   

Morphology and distribution of fossil soils in the Permo-Pennsylvanian Wichita and Bowie Groups, north-central Texas, USA: implications for western equatorial Pangean palaeoclimate during icehouse–greenhouse transition     

Neil John Tabor  Isabel P. Montañez† 《Sedimentology》2004,51(4):851-884

Analysis of stacked Permo‐Pennsylvanian palaeosols from north‐central Texas documents the influence of palaeolandscape position on pedogenesis in aggradational depositional settings. Palaeosols of the Eastern shelf of the Midland basin exhibit stratigraphic trends in the distribution of soil horizons, structure, rooting density, clay mineralogy and colour that record long‐term changes in soil‐forming conditions driven by both local processes and regional climate. Palaeosols similar to modern histosols, ultisols, vertisols, inceptisols and entisols, all bearing morphological, mineralogical and chemical characteristics consistent with a tropical, humid climate, represent the Late Pennsylvanian suite of palaeosol orders. Palaeosols similar to modern alfisols, vertisols, inceptisols, aridisols and entisols preserve characteristics indicative of a drier and seasonal tropical climate throughout the Lower Permian strata. The changes in palaeosol morphology are interpreted as being a result of an overall climatic trend from relatively humid and tropical, moist conditions characterized by high rainfall in the Late Pennsylvanian to progressively drier, semi‐arid to arid tropical climate characterized by seasonal rainfall in Early Permian time. Based on known Late Palaeozoic palaeogeography and current hypotheses for atmospheric circulation over western equatorial Pangea, the Pennsylvanian palaeosols in this study may be recording a climate that is the result of an orographic control over regional‐scale atmospheric circulation. The trend towards a drier climate interpreted from the Permian palaeosols may be recording the breakdown of this pre‐existing orographic effect and the onset of a monsoonal atmospheric circulation system over this region.  相似文献   

The objectness of everyday life: disburdenment or engagement?     

Neil Maycroft 《Geoforum》2004,35(6):713-725

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The Gondwanan Carboniferous-Permian Boundary Revisited: New Data from Australia and Argentina     

Neil W. Archbold  Gabriela A. Cisterna  Tristan Simanauskas   《Gondwana Research》2004,7(1):125-133

The identification and correlation of the Carboniferous-Permian (Gzhelian-Asselian) boundary within the sedimentary sequences of Gondwana has always been a topic of debate. Type latest Carboniferous and earliest Permian marine sequences are characterised by warm tropical faunas and come from the Uralian Region of Russia and Kazakhstan. Faunas include conodonts and fusulinid foraminiferids which are prime tools for correlation. Such faunal groups are absent from most Gondwanan sequences where reliance for correlations must be placed primarily on brachiopods, bivalve molluscs and palynology. The Western Australian marine sequences, with their contained ammonoids, provide a pivotal link for the dating and correlating of Early Permian Gondwanan sequences with those of the type regions and their palynostratigraphical record is essential for trans-Australian correlations and correlations elsewhere throughout Gondwanaland.New data from the fully cored DM Tangorin DDHl bore hole, drilled in the Cranky Corner Basin, New South Wales, Australia, reveals a sequence of descending faunal zones. The stratigraphically highest zone with Eurydesrna cordaturn, encompasses the Late Sakmarian (Sterlitamakian). The middle zone with Torniopsis elongata, Sulciplica c r a m and Trigonotreta tangorini straddles the Sterlitamakian-Tastubian boundary, with the palynomorphs Pseudoreticulatispora pseudoreticulata high in the zone and Granulatisporites confluens low in the zone. An impoverished fauna with Trigonotreta nov., low in the Granulatisporites confluens Zone, is probably of latest Asselian or Tastubian age.Significant new data from Argentina has revealed marine faunas from below the occurrence of Granulatisporites confluens. These are considered to be of Asselian age. Outcrops of the Tupe Formation, with a marine fauna, at La Herradura Creek in the western Paganzo Basin, San Juan Province, are best regarded as being of mid to late Asselian age. The Tupe Fauna has been recognised as the Tivertonia jachalensis-Streptorhynchus inaequiornatus Zone. Previously, this fauna was considered to be of Late Carboniferous or Stephanian age. Three faunal associations are known from the Rio del Peii6n Formation, Rio Blanco Basin, La Rioja Province. The middle assemblage with Tivertonia, Costaturnulus, Kochiproductus and Trigonotreta, appears to correlate well with the Tupe Formation fauna. The lower assemblage, with Streptorhynchus, Etherilosia, Costaturnulus, Trigonotreta and a punctate spiriferid, as well as indeterminate productids, probably of Early Asselian age. The youngest assemblage includes a species ofRhynchopora that is close to Rhynchopora australasica from the latest Asselian-early Tastubian of Western Australia. The marine biostratigraphical data from Argentina has enabled a much greater understanding of the earliest Permian marine faunas to be achieved - a story that is apparently absent from the other cold and cool temperate regions of Gondwana.  相似文献   

London MIST 2004     

Neil Arnold 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2005,46(3):3.36-3.37

The annual one-day meeting of the MIST (Magnetosphere, Ionosphere and Solar–Terrestrial) community was held in November 2004 at Burlington House, with contributions on data and ideas ranging from Cassini to Cluster, with stops at many experiments in between.  相似文献