Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin     

Gill M. MARTIN  Nick J. DUNSTONE  Adam A. SCAIFE  Philip E. BETT 《大气科学进展》2020,37(1):29-41

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance.Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band.We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI)on monthly time scales,and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall.However,there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted EASMI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall directly.Although interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations,which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale,the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high.The ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.  相似文献   

The Oxford Principles     

Steve Rayner  Clare Heyward  Tim Kruger  Nick Pidgeon  Catherine Redgwell  Julian Savulescu 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):499-512

Scientific momentum is increasing behind efforts to develop geoengineering options, but it is widely acknowledged that the challenges of geoengineering are as much political and social as they are technical. Legislators are looking for guidance on the governance of geoengineering research and possible deployment. The Oxford Principles are five high-level principles for geoengineering governance. This article explains their intended function and the core societal values which they attempt to capture. Finally, it proposes a framework for their implementation in a flexible governance architecture through the formulation of technology-specific research protocols.  相似文献   

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C)     

Ken Kobayashi  Jonathan Cirtain  Amy R. Winebarger  Kelly Korreck  Leon Golub  Robert W. Walsh  Bart De Pontieu  Craig DeForest  Alan Title  Sergey Kuzin  Sabrina Savage  Dyana Beabout  Brent Beabout  William Podgorski  David Caldwell  Kenneth McCracken  Mark Ordway  Henry Bergner  Richard Gates  Sean McKillop  Peter Cheimets  Simon Platt  Nick Mitchell  David Windt 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4393-4412

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) was flown on a NASA sounding rocket on 11 July 2012. The goal of the Hi-C mission was to obtain high-resolution (≈?0.3?–?0.4′′), high-cadence (≈?5 seconds) images of a solar active region to investigate the dynamics of solar coronal structures at small spatial scales. The instrument consists of a normal-incidence telescope with the optics coated with multilayers to reflect a narrow wavelength range around 19.3 nm (including the Fe xii 19.5-nm spectral line) and a 4096×4096 camera with a plate scale of 0.1′′?pixel^?1. The target of the Hi-C rocket flight was Active Region 11520. Hi-C obtained 37 full-frame images and 86 partial-frame images during the rocket flight. Analysis of the Hi-C data indicates the corona is structured on scales smaller than currently resolved by existing satellite missions.  相似文献   

Ecotourism and mass tourism in Southern Thailand: Spatial interdependence,structural connections,and staged authenticity     

Nick Kontogeorgopoulos 《GeoJournal》2005,61(1):1-11

The desire to spend leisure time in natural settings represents a key factor behind the recent and rapid growth of ecotourism. A search by ecotourists for remote landscapes and locations has shaped the way in which geographers have defined ecotourism, but few scholars have explored, in detail, the mechanics of the spatial relationship between ecotourism and mass tourism, two forms of travel usually considered mutually exclusive in spatial terms. Using the island of Phuket — southern Thailands premier resort destination — as a case study, this paper investigates the spatial overlaps and connections between ecotourism and mass tourism and tests the assumption that ecotourism and mass tourism must exist spatially apart in order for the former to succeed. Despite Phukets association with mass tourism, and the small physical distances between built-up mass tourist areas and natural ecotourism settings, the communicative staging of natural authenticity allows ecotourism companies to convey geographical remoteness to tourists. Although ecotourism in Phuket must struggle constantly to overcome the perceptual impact of spatial proximity to resort locations, the tourist markets and business networks of the existing mass tourism industry remain crucial to the survival of ecotourism in this region. Thus, contrary to conventional notions that ecotourism and mass tourism must exist as separate entities, this paper argues that an interconnected, symbiotic, and spatially-contiguous relationship between the two is necessary in the case of Phuket.  相似文献   

Seismic velocity structure of the ophiolite at Point Sal, southern California, determined from laboratory measurements     

Jerry Nichols  Nick Warren  Bruce P. Luyendyk  Paul Spudich 《Geophysical Journal International》1980,63(1):165-185

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Freshwater geographies: Experimenting with knowing and doing geography differently   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Brendon Blue  Claire Gregory  Kiely McFarlane  Marc Tadaki  Petra van Limburg‐Meijer  Nick Lewis 《New Zealand geographer》2012,68(1):62-66

The fair and effective governance of freshwater is an increasingly prominent issue in New Zealand. Emerging from a complex of cultural, economic and biophysical narratives, freshwater geographies are multiple, varied and increasingly acknowledged as worthy of interdisciplinary scrutiny. In this commentary, we reflect on a series of generative spaces that we – as group of postgraduate geographers (plus supporting staff) – created to engage with the multiplicity of freshwater meanings both within and beyond the academy. Through this evolving epistemic‐political project, we significantly reframed our own understandings about what freshwater ‘is’ and how it ought to be governed. By pursuing a deeper understanding of how the world gets made, we expand our ability to know and make it differently.  相似文献   

Radio-continuum study of the Nearby sculptor group galaxies. Part 1: NGC 300 at λ=20 cm     

Timothy J. Galvin  Miroslav D. Filipović  Evan J. Crawford  Graeme Wong  Jeff L. Payne  Ain De Horta  Graeme L. White  Nick Tothill  Danica Drašković  Thomas G. Pannuti  Caleb K. Grimes  Benjamin J. Cahall  William C. Millar  Seppo Laine 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2012,340(1):133-142

A series of new radio-continuum (λ=20 cm) mosaic images focused on the NGC?300 galactic system were produced using archived observational data from the VLA and/or ATCA. These new images are both very sensitive (rms?=60 μJy) and feature high angular resolution (<10?″). The most prominent new feature is the galaxy’s extended radio-continuum emission, which does not match its optical appearance. Using these newly created images a number of previously unidentified discrete sources have been discovered. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a joint deconvolution approach to imaging this complete data-set is inferior when compared to an immerge approach.  相似文献   

Stardust impact analogs: Resolving pre‐ and postimpact mineralogy in Stardust Al foils     

Penelope J. WOZNIAKIEWICZ  Hope A. ISHII  Anton T. KEARSLEY  Mark J. BURCHELL  John P. BRADLEY  Mark C. PRICE  Nick TESLICH  Martin R. LEE  Mike J. COLE 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(4):708-728

Abstract– The grains returned by NASA’s Stardust mission from comet 81P/Wild 2 represent a valuable sample set that is significantly advancing our understanding of small solar system bodies. However, the grains were captured via impact at ～6.1 km s^?1 and have experienced pressures and temperatures that caused alteration. To ensure correct interpretations of comet 81P/Wild 2 mineralogy, and therefore preaccretional or parent body processes, an understanding of the effects of capture is required. Using a two‐stage light‐gas gun, we recreated Stardust encounter conditions and generated a series of impact analogs for a range of minerals of cometary relevance into flight spare Al foils. Through analyses of both preimpact projectiles and postimpact analogs by transmission electron microscopy, we explore the impact processes occurring during capture and distinguish between those materials inherent to the impactor and those that are the product of capture. We review existing and present additional data on olivine, diopside, pyrrhotite, and pentlandite. We find that surviving crystalline material is observed in most single grain impactor residues. However, none is found in that of a relatively monodisperse aggregate. A variety of impact‐generated components are observed in all samples. Al incorporation into melt‐derived phases allows differentiation between melt and shock‐induced phases. In single grain impactor residues, impact‐generated phases largely retain original (nonvolatile) major element ratios. We conclude that both surviving and impact‐generated phases in residues of single grain impactors provide valuable information regarding the mineralogy of the impacting grain whilst further studies are required to fully understand aggregate impacts and the role of subgrain interactions during impact.  相似文献   

Using micro-catchment experiments for multi-local scale modelling of nature-based solutions     

Barry Hankin  Trevor J. C. Page  Nick A. Chappell  Keith J. Beven  Paul J. Smith  Ann Kretzschmar  Rob Lamb 《水文研究》2021,35(11):e14418

The Q-natural flood management project has co-developed with the Environment Agency 18 monitored micro-catchments (~1 km²) in Cumbria, UK installing calibrated flumes aimed at quantifying the potential shift in observed flows resulting from a range of nature-based-solutions installed by local organizations. The small-scale reduces the influence of variability characterizing larger catchments that would otherwise mask any such shifts, which we attempt to relate to a shift in model parameters. This paper demonstrates an approach to applying donor-parameter-shifts obtained from modelling two of the paired micro-catchments to a much larger scale, in order to understand the potential for improved distributed modelling of nature-based solutions in the form of additional tree-planting. The models include a rainfall-runoff model, Dynamic Topmodel, and a 2D hydrodynamic model, JFlow, permitting analysis of changes in hillslope processes and channel hydrodynamics resulting from a range of distributed measures designed to emulate natural hydrological processes that evaporate, store or infiltrate flows. We report on attempts to detect shift in hydrological response using one of the paired-micro-catchment moorland versus forestry sites in Lorton using Dynamic Topmodel. A donor-parameter-shift approach is used in a hypothetical experiment to represent new woodland in a much larger catchment, although testing all combinations of spatial planting strategies, responses to multiple-extremes, failure-modes and changes to synchronization becomes intractable to support good decision making. We argue that the problem can be re-framed to use donor-parameter-shifts at multi-local-scale catchments above communities known to be at risk, commensurate with most of the evidence of NbS impacts being effective at the small scale (ca. 10 km²). This might lead to more effective modelling to help catchment managers prioritize those communities-at-risk where there is more evidence that NbS might be effective.  相似文献   

Radar Backscatter from Underdense Meteors and Diffusion Rates     

Werner Singer  Ralph Latteck  Luis Federico Millan  Nick J. Mitchell  Jens Fiedler 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2008,102(1-4):403-409

Many meteoroids burn up between about 120 km and 70 km, deposit metals and dust and form ionized trails which are detected by radars. Model studies about the influence of neutral or positively charged background dust on the ambipolar diffusion indicate that significant smaller decay times should be observed for weak meteor echoes compared to strong meteor echoes which can affect the estimation of temperatures. The variation of meteor decay times in dependence on echo strength, height, and season was studied using radar observations at 69° N, 22° S, and 67° S. Significantly reduced decay times were found for weak echoes below about 88 km at low latitudes throughout the year, and at high latitudes with the exception of summer. In summer at high latitudes, decreasing decay times of weak and strong meteors are observed at altitudes below about 85 km during the appearance of noctilucent clouds. The impact of reduced decay times on the estimation of neutral temperatures from decay times is discussed.  相似文献