Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC’s greenhouse gas emissions scenarios     

Niels J. Schenk  Sander M. Lensink 《Climatic change》2007,82(3-4):293-308

The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario literature and SRES, identifies the most vulnerable elements in the communication of SRES. In the communication of GHG emission scenarios through SRES, the weaknesses that have been identified by the authors of this paper are the normative character of climate change assessment, the plausibility of the scenarios, and the risk of simplification of complex messages. The causes of these communicative issues have been identified as the intrinsic difficulties of interdisciplinary science, the uniqueness of the science-policy relation, and the need for a high degree of transparency. This paper suggests improving future communication of complex messages from scientists to their audience by means of clear reasoning when communicating with non-scientists, explicitly normative emission scenarios, and increased stakeholder participation in scenario development. Based on a presentation at the “IIASA-YSSP uncertainty seminars,” 22 July 2004, and the discussions thereafter.  相似文献   

Emergence of Civilization,Changes in Fluvio‐Deltaic Style,and Nutrient Redistribution Forced by Holocene Sea‐Level Rise     

Benjamin T. Pennington  Judith Bunbury  Niels Hovius 《Geoarchaeology》2016,31(3):194-210

During the mid‐Holocene, the first large‐scale civilizations emerged in lower alluvial systems after a marked decrease in sea‐level rise at 7–6 kyr. We show that as the landscapes of deltas and lower alluvial plains adjusted to this decrease in the rate of relative sea‐level rise, the abundance and location of resources available for human exploitation changed as did the network of waterways. This dynamic environmental evolution contributed to archaeological changes in the three fluvio‐deltaic settings considered herein: Egypt, Mesopotamia, and the Huang He in China. Specifically, an increase in the scale and intensity of agricultural practice, and the focussing of power toward a single city can be interpreted as responses to these environmental changes. Other archaeological observations, and the cultural trajectories leading to the formation of the Primary States also need to be considered in light of these evolving landscapes.  相似文献   

Direct evidence of the feedback between climate and weathering   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sigurdur R. Gislason  Eric H. Oelkers  Eydis S. Eiriksdottir  Marin I. Kardjilov  Gudrun Gisladottir  Bergur Sigfusson  Arni Snorrason  Sverrir Elefsen  Jorunn Hardardottir  Peter Torssander  Niels Oskarsson 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2009,277(1-2):213-222

Long-term climate moderation is commonly attributed to chemical weathering; the higher the temperature and precipitation the faster the weathering rate. Weathering releases divalent cations to the ocean via riverine transport where they promote the drawdown of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the precipitation and subsequent burial of carbonate minerals. To test this widely-held hypothesis, we performed a field study determining the weathering rates of 8 nearly pristine north-eastern Iceland river catchments with varying glacial cover over 44 years. The mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of these catchments varied by 3.2 to 4.5 °C and 80 to 530%, respectively during the study period. Statistically significant linear positive correlations were found between mean annual temperature and chemical weathering in all 8 catchments and between mean annual temperature and both mechanical weathering and runoff in 7 of the 8 catchments. For each degree of temperature increase, the runoff, mechanical weathering flux, and chemical weathering fluxes in these catchments are found to increase from 6 to 16%, 8 to 30%, and 4 to 14% respectively, depending on the catchment. In contrast, annual precipitation is less related to the measured fluxes; statistically significant correlations between annual precipitation and runoff, mechanical weathering, and chemical weathering were found for 3 of the least glaciated catchments. Mechanical and chemical weathering increased with time in all catchments over the 44 year period. These correlations were statistically significant for only 2 of the 8 catchments due to scatter in corresponding annual runoff and average annual temperature versus time plots. Taken together, these results 1) demonstrate a significant feedback between climate and Earth surface weathering, and 2) suggest that weathering rates are currently increasing with time due to global warming.  相似文献   

A lateral model parameter correlation procedure for one-dimensional inverse modelling     

Niels B. Christensen  Rasmus J. Tølbøll 《Geophysical Prospecting》2009,57(5):919-929

We present a new, fast and versatile method, the lateral parameter correlation method, of invoking lateral smoothness in model sections of one-dimensional (1D) models. Modern, continuous electrical and electromagnetic methods are capable of recording very large data sets and except for a few cases, standard inversion methodology still relies on 1D models. In environments where the lateral rate of change of resistivity is small, 1D inversion can be justified but model sections of concatenated 1D models do not necessarily display the expected lateral smoothness.
The lateral parameter correlation method has three steps. First, all sounding data are inverted individually. Next, a laterally smooth version of each model parameter, one at a time, is found by solving a simple constrained inversion problem. Identity is postulated between the uncorrelated and correlated parameters and the equations are solved including a model covariance matrix. As a last step, all sounding data are inverted again to produce models that better fit the data, now subject to constraints by including the correlated parameter values as a priori values. Because the method separates the inversion from the correlation it is much faster than methods where the inversion and correlation are solved simultaneously, typically with a factor of 200–500.
Theoretical examples show that the method produces laterally smooth model sections where the main influence comes from the well-determined parameters in such a way that problems with equivalence and poor resolution are alleviated. A field example is presented, demonstrating the improved resolution obtained with the lateral parameter correlation method. The method is very flexible and is capable of coupling models from inversion of different data types and information from boreholes.  相似文献   

Distribution of erosion across bedrock channels     

Jens M. Turowski  Niels Hovius  Hsieh Meng‐Long  Dimitri Lague  Chen Men‐Chiang 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(3):353-363

Lateral erosion in bedrock rivers is an important control on the shape of channel cross‐sections, and the coupling of channels and hillslopes. Recent observations link lateral erosion to the variability of flow. We propose two mechanisms to explain this. One is based on changing shear stress distributions within the channel with varying flood level, the other on the competition between cover and tool effects in fluvial bedrock erosion. We assess these processes for the Liwu River, Taiwan, and conclude that cover and tool effects dominate the partitioning of lateral and vertical erosion in this case. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Tectonic,sedimentary and diagenetic controls on sediment maturity of lower Cambrian quartz arenite from southwestern Baltica     

Sanne Lorentzen  Carita Augustsson  Jens Jahren  Johan P. Nystuen  Niels H. Schovsbo 《Basin Research》2019,31(6):1098-1120

Lower Cambrian quartz arenitic deposits have a worldwide occurrence. In this study, petrographic and mineralogical analyses were carried out on samples from the quartz‐rich Ringsaker Member of the Vangsås Formation from southern Norway and the corresponding Hardeberga Formation from southern Sweden and on the Danish island of Bornholm. The quartz arenite is almost completely quartz cemented and has an average intergranular volume of 30%. The quartz cement is the dominating cause for porosity loss. Dissolution along stylolites and microstylolites is suggested to be the primary and secondary source for the quartz cement respectively. The quartzose sandstone from southern Norway was severely cemented prior to the Caledonian Orogeny, thus limiting the tectonic influence on diagenesis during thrusting. For most samples, authigenic clay minerals and detrital phyllosilicates represent ca. 5% of the present‐day composition. This, together with a low feldspar content, of on average 4%, indicates that the sediment was extremely quartz‐rich already during deposition. The low amount of feldspar prior to burial and the formation of early diagenetic kaolinite point to weathering, sediment reworking and early diagenesis act as important controls on sediment maturity. The large variation in clay‐mineral and feldspar content between the localities, as well as within the sandstone successions, can be explained by different palaeogeography on the shelf during deposition and subsequently dissimilar subjection to reworking and early diagenetic processes. Weathering in the provenance area, reworking in the depositional shallow‐marine environment and meteoric flushing during the burial stage are suggested to explain the high mineralogical maturity of the lower Cambrian sandstone from southwestern Baltica. These processes may generally account for similar quartz‐rich shallow‐marine sandstone units, deposited as a result of intensive continental denudation and during temperate to subtropical and moderately humid conditions.  相似文献   

A Simple Model for the Vertical Transport of Reactive Species in the Convective Atmospheric Boundary Layer     

Leif Kristensen  Donald H. Lenschow  David Gurarie  Niels Otto Jensen 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2010,134(2):195-221

We have developed a simple, steady-state, one-dimensional second-order closure model to obtain continuous profiles of turbulent fluxes and mean concentrations of non-conserved scalars in a convective boundary layer without shear. As a basic tool we first set up a model for conserved species with standard parameterizations. This leads to formulations for profiles of the turbulent diffusivity and the ratio of temperature-scalar covariance to the flux of the passive scalar. The model is then extended to solving, in terms of profiles of mean concentrations and fluxes, the NO _x –O₃ triad problem. The chemical reactions involve one first-order reaction, the destruction of NO₂ with decay time τ, and one second-order reaction, the destruction of NO and O₃ with the reaction constant k. Since the fluxes of the sum concentrations of NO _x = NO + NO₂ and O₃ + NO₂ turn out to be constant throughout the boundary layer, the problem reduces to solving two differential equations for the concentration and the flux of NO₂. The boundary conditions are the three surface fluxes and the fluxes at the top of the boundary layer, the last obtained from the entrainment velocity, and the concentration differences between the free troposphere and the top of the boundary layer. The equations are solved in a dimensionless form by using 1/(kτ) as the concentration unit, the depth h of the boundary layer as the length unit, the convective velocity scale w _* as the velocity unit, and the surface temperature flux divided by w _* as the temperature unit. Special care has been devoted to the inclusion of the scalar–scalar covariance between the concentrations of O₃ and NO. Sample calculations show that the fluxes of the reactive species deviate significantly from those of non-reactive species. Further, the diffusivities, defined by minus the flux divided by the concentration gradient may become negative for reactive species in contrast to those of non-reactive species, which in the present model are never negative.  相似文献   

Recent volcano-ice interaction and outburst flooding in a Mars polar cap re-entrant     

Niels Hovius 《Icarus》2008,197(1):24-38

Formation of chasms in the polar ice caps of Mars has been attributed to meltwater outburst floods, but the cause of melting has remained uncertain. In a cap re-entrant enveloping Abalos Colles, west of Casma Boreale in the north polar cap, we have found possible evidence of recent volcano-ice interaction and outburst flooding. In this paper we demonstrate that these two mechanisms can have acted together to form or expand the Abalos re-entrant. Flat-topped ridges and circular rims protruding above the ice cap surface in the re-entrant apex may be lava ridges and volcano craters, and can have caused melting of 3.3 to 7.7×¹⁰³ km³ of ice. The surrounding cap surface appears to have subsided and the likely volume of missing ice matches the melt estimate. Outburst flooding from this area may have reached peak discharges of 0.3 to according to scour patterns in one of the re-entrant channels. This required ponding of melt water during lava eruption and catastrophic release through a sub- or englacial melt water tunnel, the collapse of which has left a chasm in the ice cap margin. The flood features are geologically recent, and volcano-ice interaction may have occurred within the last 20,000 years.  相似文献   

3D DEM simulation of principal stress rotation in different planes of cross-anisotropic granular materials     

Long Xue  Niels P. Kruyt  Rui Wang  Jian-Min Zhang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(14):2227-2250

Three-dimensional Discrete Element Method simulations have been performed to study the deformation of cross-anisotropic granular materials under principal stress rotation (PSR), for rotation planes oriented at different angles θ with respect to the bedding plane. The simulations have been conducted with a novel technique for applying specified stresses at three-dimensional boundaries. The results are qualitatively in agreement with experimental results from literature. Cumulative volume contraction is always observed under continuous PSR and increases with increasing θ. The dilatancy rate decreases with increasing number of PSR cycles, tending to zero. The noncoaxiality angle between the strain increment and the stress in the PSR plane increases with increasing number of cycles, reaching the same asymptotic value for samples of various densities and for various θ. Periodic oscillations of the dilatancy rate and noncoaxiality angle within each PSR cycle are observed with an increasing oscillation magnitude with increasing θ, due to the larger fabric anisotropy within the PSR plane. When θ = 30 or 60°, significant noncoaxial strain accumulation occurs in the plane perpendicular to the PSR plane due to the oblique angle between the PSR plane and the bedding plane, echoing the major principal fabric direction's being neither parallel nor perpendicular to the PSR plane. The macroscopic behavior of the samples is related to the microscopic parameters including coordination number and fabric anisotropy. With increasing number of cycles, the difference between normalized stress/strain/fabric increment tensors tends to become constant, with only a small lag between each pair, irrespective of θ.  相似文献   

Continuous monitoring of stream δ18O and δ2H and stormflow hydrograph separation using laser spectrometry in an agricultural catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Sarah Tweed  Niels Munksgaard  Vincent Marc  Nicholas Rockett  Adrian Bass  Anthony J. Forsythe  Michael I. Bird  Marc Leblanc 《水文研究》2016,30(4):648-660

A portable Wavelength Scanned‐Cavity Ring‐Down Spectrometer (Picarro L2120) fitted with a diffusion sampler (DS‐CRDS) was used for the first time to continuously measure δ¹⁸O and δ²H of stream water. The experiment took place during a storm event in a wet tropical agricultural catchment in north‐eastern Australia. At a temporal resolution of one minute, the DS‐CRDS measured 2160 δ¹⁸O and δ²H values continuously over a period of 36 h with a precision of ±0.08 and 0.5‰ for δ¹⁸O and δ²H, respectively. Four main advantages in using high temporal resolution stream δ¹⁸O and δ²H data during a storm event are highlighted from this study. First, they enabled us to separate components of the hydrograph, which was not possible using high temporal resolution electrical conductivity data that represented changes in solute transfers during the storm event rather than physical hydrological processes. The results from the hydrograph separation confirm fast groundwater contribution to the stream, with the first 5 h of increases in stream discharge comprising over 70% pre‐event water. Second, the high temporal resolution stream δ¹⁸O and δ²H data allowed us to detect a short‐lived reversal in stream isotopic values (δ¹⁸O increase by 0.4‰ over 9 min), which was observed immediately after the heavy rainfall period. Third, δ¹⁸O values were used to calculate a time lag of 20 min between the physical and chemical stream responses during the storm event. Finally, the hydrograph separation highlights the role of event waters in the runoff transfers of herbicides and nutrients from this heavily cultivated catchment to the Great Barrier Reef. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献