Reconstruction of Subdecadal Changes in Sunspot Numbers Based on the NGRIP 10Be Record     

F. Inceoglu  M. F. Knudsen  C. Karoff  J. Olsen 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4377-4392

Sunspot observations since 1610 A.D. show that the solar magnetic activity displays long-term changes, from Maunder Minimum-like low-activity states to Modern Maximum-like high-activity episodes, as well as short-term variations, such as the pronounced 11-year periodicity. Information on changes in solar activity levels before 1610 relies on proxy records of solar activity stored in natural archives, such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores and ¹⁴C in tree rings. These cosmogenic radionuclides are produced by the interaction between Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and atoms in the Earth’s atmosphere; their production rates are anti-correlated with the solar magnetic activity. The GCR intensity displays a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the GCRs in the heliosphere, which is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle. This implies a time lag between the actual solar cycles and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) records of the ¹⁰Be flux to reconstruct the solar modulation strength (Φ), which describes the modulation of GCRs throughout the heliosphere, to reconstruct both long-term and subdecadal changes in sunspot numbers (SSNs). We compare three different approaches for reconstructing subdecadal-scale changes in SSNs, including a linear approach and two approaches based on the hysteresis effect, i.e. models with ellipse–linear and ellipse relationships between Φ and SSNs. We find that the ellipse approach provides an amplitude-sensitive reconstruction and the highest cross-correlation coefficients in comparison with the ellipse–linear and linear approaches. The long-term trend in the reconstructed SSNs is computed using a physics-based model and agrees well with the other group SSN reconstructions. The new empirical approach, combining a physics-based model with ellipse-modeling of the 11-year cycle, therefore provides a method for reconstructing SSNs during individual solar cycles based on ¹⁰Be in ice cores. This, in turn, represents a new window for studying short-term changes in solar activity on unprecedented timescales, which may help improve our understanding of the solar dynamo.  相似文献   

Modeling the Relationship Between Neutron Counting Rates and Sunspot Numbers Using the Hysteresis Effect     

F. Inceoglu  M. F. Knudsen  C. Karoff  J. Olsen 《Solar physics》2014,289(4):1387-1402

Several studies show that temporal variations in the Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity display a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. The 11-year periodicity of GCRs is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle, implying that there is a time lag between actual solar cycle and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the hysteresis effect to model the relationship between neutron counting rates (NCRs), an indicator of the GCR intensity, and sunspot numbers (SSNs) over the period that covers the last four solar cycles (20, 21, 22, and 23). Both linear and ellipse models were applied to SSNs during odd and even cycles in order to calculate temporal variations of NCRs. We find that ellipse modeling provides higher correlation coefficients for odd cycles compared to linear models, e.g. 0.97, 0.97, 0.92, and 0.97 compared to 0.69, 0.72, 0.53, and 0.68 for data from McMurdo, Swarthmore, South Pole, and Thule neutron monitors, respectively, during solar cycle 21 with overall improvement of 31 % for odd cycles. When combined to a continuous model, the better correlation observed for the odd cycles increases the overall correlation between observed and modeled NCRs. The new empirical model therefore provides a better representation of the relationship between NCRs and SSNs. A major goal of the ongoing research is to use the new non-linear empirical model to reconstruct SSNs on annual time scales prior to 1610, where we do not have observational records of SSNs, based on changes in NCRs reconstructed from ¹⁰Be in ice cores.  相似文献   

The geography of global urban greenhouse gas emissions: an exploratory analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peter John Marcotullio  Andrea Sarzynski  Jochen Albrecht  Niels Schulz  Jake Garcia 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):621-634

The purpose of this paper is to describe global urban greenhouse gas emissions by region and sector, examine the distribution of emissions through the urban-to-rural gradient, and identify covariates of emission levels for our baseline year, 2000. We use multiple existing spatial databases to identify urban extent, greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂, N₂O, CH₄ and SF₆) and covariates of emissions in a “top-down” analysis. The results indicate that urban activities are significant sources of total greenhouse gas emissions (36.8 and 48.6 % of total). The urban energy sector accounts for between 41.5 and 66.3 % of total energy emissions. Significant differences exist in the urban share of greenhouse gas emissions between developed and developing countries as well as among source sectors for geographic regions. The 50 largest urban emitting areas account for 38.8 % of all urban greenhouse gas emissions. We find that greenhouse gas emissions are significantly associated with population size, density, growth rates, and per capita income. Finally, comparison of our results to “bottom-up” estimates suggest that this research’s data and techniques are best used at the regional and global scales.  相似文献   

IMO legislation and its implementation: Accident risk,vessel deficiencies and national administrative practices     

Olav F. Knudsen  Björn Hassler 《Marine Policy》2011

The article takes as its point of departure the apparently contradictory findings in recent research about accident rates in shipping and IMO implementation records. It is argued here that although IMO conventions have probably greatly improved shipping safety, they cannot credibly be held to be the chief cause of reduced accident rates as claimed in a recent Marine Policy article, when the documented failures of flag state and port state implementation continue to leave vessels sailing with grave deficiencies. The present analysis posits and corroborates a cluster of linked tendencies that jointly undermine IMO implementation. The core problem is IMO’s weak connection to the national maritime administrations, leading to broadly discretionary practices, exacerbated by language difficulties. Adding new rules is no panacea, as new rules in some cases negatively affect the functioning of existing regulations, and sometimes seem motivated mainly to show political alertness. The structural weakness of the IMO/member state link is the core implementation problem that urgently needs to be dealt with if marine safety is to be improved. The concluding section proposes a reform to bring the IMO out of this conundrum and ensure effective implementation.  相似文献   

Marine evidence for climatic instability during the last interglacial in shelf records from northwest Europe     

Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz  Peter Kristensen  Karen Luise Knudsen 《第四纪科学杂志》1995,10(1):77-82

Data from the Greenland ice sheet and continental records from Europe have indicated climatic fluctuations during the last interglacial (Eemian: Oxygen Isotope Substage 5e). Similar fluctuations have not, however, been documented previously from marine environments. Here, we show the existence of two cold events during substage 5e in two marine, benthic foraminiferal, shelf records from northwest Europe and suggest that these cooling events are a result of fluctuations in the strength of the North Atlantic surface-water circulation.  相似文献   

Editors' note     

Jan A. Piotrowski  Karen Luise Knudsen 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2001,30(1):1-1

  相似文献   

Erosion-driven drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide: The organic pathway     

Niels Hovius  Albert Galy  Robert G. Hilton  Robert Sparkes  Joanne Smith  Kao Shuh-Ji  Chen Hongey  Lin In-Tian  A. Joshua West 《Applied Geochemistry》2011

Rapidly eroding, coastal mountain belts, where steep rivers and submarine channels connect upland sources to nearby marine sinks are hotspots of organic carbon transfer from life biomass, soil and exhumed bedrock into geological storage. Using observations from the Southern Alps of New Zealand, and Taiwan, we have mapped this organic pathway to geological carbon sequestration, and can evaluate the magnitude and efficiency of transfers between sources and sinks. We demonstrate that POC is harvested by landsliding, but importantly also by common and widespread surface runoff on steep hillslopes. Although terrestrially sourced POC is found in many sedimentary environments associated with mountain belts and frontier basins, it appears to be most abundantly trapped and preserved in marine turbidites. The loss of all forms of POC in onward transport through short, steep routing systems to this repository is limited. This is in marked contrast to larger routing systems, in which only the most resilient forms of POC survive into long-term deposition.  相似文献   

Meteorological Observations in 1999 at the Arctic Station,Qeqertarsuaq (Godhavn), Central West Greenland/Evidence of a warmer climate around AD 600, Mittivakkat Glacier,South East Greenland     

Birger Ulf Hansen  Niels Nielsen  Ole Humlum  Bent Hasholt 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(1):85-90

In october 1990 an automatic weather station was established at the Arctic Station (65° 15', 53°31'W), Qeqertarsuaq (Godhavn), Central West Greenland. The Station register parameters each 20 minutes, and the paramters have been described in an earlier paper in this journal by Nielsen et al.(1995). The present paper summarizes meteorological parameters during 1999.

During a field campaign in 1999, woody remains from Salix glauca were found on a nunatak, 515 m. a.s.l. on the Mittivakkat Glacier, South East Greenland. Radio carbon dating determined the age of a wood sample to AD 640. Together with analyses of macroscopic botanical remains and insect rests in peaty material found nearby, these results indicate, that a warmer climate prevailed near the glacier around AD 600. These findings are in accordance with temperature records based on studies of ice cores from the Greenland Ice sheet.  相似文献   

Observations of sea ice influence on the littoral sediment exchange,North Zealand,Denmark     

ass.prof. Niels Nielsen 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(1):61-67

Nielsen, Niels: Observations of sea ice influence on the littoral sediment exchange, North Zealand, Denmark. Geografisk Tidsskrift 88:61–67. Copenhagen. 1988.

In 1985 and 1986 monthly surveys of sediment volumes were carried out on a sandy beach and its nearshore platform at the north coast of Zealand. Both winters in the research period had temperatures below average, and consequently abundant sea ice formations. ‘Ice winters’ in open Danish waters occur statistically about 1/3 of the winters. The appearance of sea ice resulted in marked loss of sediment from the whole littoral zone, but by far the largest net erosion could be detected on the nearshore plane. An important factor is assumed to be the interaction of waves with the icefoot and ice pile-ups. For the beach itself, ice-glazing of the beach surface and interstitial frost in the foreshore sediments caused wave erosion within and just off the swash zone due to variations of the percolation parameter. This dynamic was observed during both the freeze-up and thaw-up periods. On the backshore, wind-derived forms characterized the winter beach, but here the net sediment budget was less affected.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of DaisyGIS to LAI: Implications for land use based modelling of nitrate leaching     

Anita Veihe  Niels H. Jensen  Eva Boegh  Peter Frederiksen  Michael W. Pedersen 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(2):75-85

Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 106(2): 75–85, 2006

Scaling is an important issue when measuring, modelling and understanding coupled socio-environmental terrestrial systems. Scaling may be enhanced through the incorporation of remotely sensed data. This paper assesses the sensitivity of DaisyGIS to changes in the Leaf Area Index (LAI) and discusses the implications for land use based modelling of nitrate leaching using remote sensing based LAI estimates. It is shown how DaisyGIS simulates nitrate leaching quite well over the period 2001 to 2004 except for one plot during a season with winter rape. It was found that the model is sensitive to changes in LAI with increases of up to 262% on nitrate leaching rates when reducing LAI by 15%. At the same time, the nitrate leaching rates at the field level vary considerably due to local changes in the water balance determined by soil profile characteristics. DaisyGIS is already an important tool for aiding decision makers and this study has shown how remote sensing based LAI estimates may be a valuable tool for model parameterisation and potentially for model validation.  相似文献