The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nigel W. Arnell  Detlef P. van VuurenMorna Isaac 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):592-603

This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4 °C by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at around 450 ppm CO₂e and leads to a 2 °C increase in 2100. Associated changes in river runoff are simulated using a global hydrological model, for four spatial patterns of change in temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable difference in hydrological change between these four patterns, but the percentages of change avoided at the global scale are relatively robust. By the 2050s, the Mitigation scenario typically avoids between 16 and 30% of the change in runoff under the Reference scenario, and by 2100 it avoids between 43 and 65%. Two different measures of exposure to water resources stress are calculated, based on resources per capita and the ratio of withdrawals to resources. Using the first measure, the Mitigation scenario avoids 8-17% of the impact in 2050 and 20-31% in 2100; with the second measure, the avoided impacts are 5-21% and 15-47% respectively. However, at the same time, the Mitigation scenario also reduces the positive impacts of climate change on water scarcity in other areas. The absolute numbers and locations of people affected by climate change and climate policy vary considerably between the four climate model patterns.  相似文献   

Minor and trace elements in bornite and associated Cu-(Fe)-sulfides: A LA-ICP-MS studyBornite mineral chemistry   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nigel J. Cook  Cristiana L. Ciobanu  Sarah Gilbert 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(21):6473-6496

In situ laser ablation inductively-coupled mass spectroscopy (LA-ICP-MS) has been used to provide a baseline dataset on the minor element contents in hypogene bornite and accompanying Cu-sulfides from 12 deposits with emphasis on syn-metamorphic Cu-vein systems in Norway, and skarn, porphyry and epithermal systems in SE Europe.Bornite contains significant concentrations of both Ag and Bi, especially in the vein and skarn deposits studied and has the potential to be a major Ag-carrier in such ores. Concentrations of up to >1 wt.% of both elements are documented. Measured concentrations appear to be independent of whether discrete Ag- and/or Bi-minerals are present within the analyzed sulfide. Where bornite and chalcocite (or mixtures of Cu-sulfides) coexist, Ag is preferentially partitioned into chalcocite over co-existing bornite and Bi is partitioned into the bornite. Bornite is a relatively poor host for Au, which mimics Ag by being typically richer in coexisting chalcocite. Most anomalous Au concentrations in bornite can be readily tracked to micron- and submicron-scale inclusions, but bornite and chalcocite containing up to 3 and 28 ppm Au in solid solution can be documented. Selenium and Te concentrations in bornite may be as high as several thousand ppm and correlate with the abundance of selenides and tellurides within the sample. Selenium distributions show some promise as a vector in exploration, offering the possibility to track a fluid source. Bornite and chalcocite are poor hosts for a range of other elements such as Co, Ni, Ga and Ge, etc. which have been reported to be commonly substituted within sulfides. Hypogene bornite and chalcocite may have significantly different trace element geochemical signatures from secondary (supergene) bornite.  相似文献   

Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England—An assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans     

Matthew B. Charlton  Nigel W. Arnell 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(1):238-248

Climate change is expected to produce reductions in water availability in England, potentially necessitating adaptive action by the water industry to maintain supplies. As part of Ofwat's fifth Periodic Review (PR09), water companies recently released their draft Water Resources Management Plans, setting out how each company intends to maintain the balance between the supply and demand for water over the next 25 years, following Environment Agency guidelines. This paper reviews these plans to determine company estimates of the impact of climate change on water supply relative to other resource pressures. The approaches adopted for incorporating the impact in the plans and the proposed management solutions are also identified.Climate change impacts for individual resource zones range from no reductions in deployable output to greater than 50% over the planning period. The estimated national aggregated loss of deployable output under a “core” climate scenario is ∼520 Ml/d (3% of deployable output) by 2034/2035, the equivalent of the supply of one entire water company (South West Water). Climate change is the largest single driver of change in water supplies over the planning period. Over half of the climate change impact is concentrated in southern England. In extreme cases, climate change uncertainty is of the same magnitude as the change under the core scenario (up to a loss of ∼475 Ml/d). 44 of the 68 resource zones with available data are estimated to have a climate change impact. In 35 of these climate change has the greatest impact although in 10 zones sustainability reductions have a greater impact. Of the overall change in downward pressure on the supply-demand balance over the planning period, ∼56% is accounted for by increased demand (620 Ml/d) and supply side climate change accounts for ∼37% (407 Ml/d). Climate change impacts have a cumulative impact in concert with other changing supply side reducing components increasing the national pressure on the supply-demand balance. Whilst the magnitude of climate change appears to justify its explicit consideration, it is rare that adaptation options are planned solely in response to climate change but as a suite of options to provide a resilient supply to a range of pressures (including significant demand side pressures). Supply-side measures still tend to be considered by water companies to be more reliable than demand-side measures.  相似文献   

Mesozoic metallogeny in East China and corresponding geodynamic settings — An introduction to the special issue   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Jingwen Mao  Franco Pirajno  Nigel Cook 《Ore Geology Reviews》2011,43(1):1-7

The giant East China Mesozoic metallogenic province hosts some of the World’s largest resources of tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony and bismuth. Ores of gold, silver, mercury, lead, zinc, copper, uranium and iron are also of major importance. The province and its constituent metallogenic belts or regions (South China; Middle–Lower Yangtze River Valley; East Qinling–Dabie; Interior of North China Craton; Yan-Liao and North-east China) are the products of several pulses of igneous activity and mineralisation between ~240 and ~80 Ma. Each successive stage has produced a distinctive suite of deposits that can be readily related to the geodynamic evolution of the region during the Mesozoic. This geodynamic evolution is linked to a complex series of tectonic events, involving far-field-subduction, plate collisions, crustal thickening, post-collision collapse and rifting.  相似文献   

A Multi‐Objective,Multi‐Criteria Approach to Improve Situational Awareness in Emergency Evacuation Routing Using Mobile Phone Data     

Christopher Oxendine  Mukul Sonwalkar  Nigel Waters 《Transactions in GIS》2012,16(3):375-396

Emergency services personnel face risks and uncertainty as they respond to natural and anthropogenic events. Their primary goal is to minimize the loss of life and property, especially in neighborhoods with high population densities, where response time is of great importance. In recent years, mobile phones have become a primary communication device during emergencies. The portability of cell phones and ease of information storage and dissemination has enabled effective implementation of cell phones by first responders and one of the most viable means of communication with the population. Using cellular location data during evacuation planning and response also provides increased awareness to emergency personnel. This article introduces a multi‐objective, multi‐criteria approach to determining optimum evacuation routes in an urban setting. The first objective is to calculate evacuation routes for individual cell phone locations, minimizing the time it would take for a sample population to evacuate to designated safe zones based on both distance and congestion criteria. The second objective is to maximize coverage of individual cell phone locations, using the criteria of underlying geographic features, distance and congestion. In summary, this article presents a network‐based methodology for providing additional analytic support to emergency services personnel for evacuation planning.  相似文献   

Mitigating methane emissions from livestock: a global analysis of sectoral policies     

Nigel Key  Gregoire Tallard 《Climatic change》2012,112(2):387-414

Methane emissions from livestock enteric fermentation and manure management represent about 40% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector and are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades, with most of the growth occurring in non-Annex 1 countries. To mitigate livestock methane, incentive policies based on producer-level emissions are generally not feasible because of high administrative costs and producer transaction costs. In contrast, incentive policies based on sectoral emissions are likely administratively feasible, even in developing countries. This study uses an economic model of global agriculture to estimate the effects of two sectoral mitigation policies: a carbon tax and an emissions trading scheme based on average national methane emissions per unit of commodity. The analysis shows how the composition and location of livestock production and emissions change in response to the policies. Results illustrate the importance of global mitigation efforts: when policies are limited to Annex 1 countries, increased methane emissions in non-Annex 1 countries offset approximately two-thirds of Annex 1 emissions reductions. While non-Annex 1 countries face substantial disincentives to enacting domestic carbon taxes, developing countries could benefit from participating in a global sectoral emissions trading scheme. We illustrate one scheme in which non-Annex 1 countries collectively earn USD 2.4 billion annually from methane emission permit sales when methane is priced at USD 30/t CO₂-eq.  相似文献   

Geology,Alteration, and Mineralization of the Kay Tanda Epithermal Gold Deposit,Lobo, Batangas,Philippines     

Sofia Marah P. Frias  Akira Imai  Ryohei Takahashi  Ma. Ines Rosana Balangue‐Tarriela  Carlo Arcilla  Nigel Blamey 《Resource Geology》2019,69(4):351-384

The Kay Tanda epithermal Au deposit in Lobo, Batangas is one of the Au deposits situated in the Batangas Mineral District in southern Luzon, Philippines. This study aims to document the geological, alteration, and mineralization characteristics and to determine the age of the mineralization, the mechanism of ore deposition, and the hydrothermal fluid characteristics of the Kay Tanda deposit. The geology of Kay Tanda consists of (i) the Talahib Volcanic Sequence, a Middle Miocene dacitic to andesitic volcaniclastic sequence that served as the host rock of the mineralization; (ii) the Balibago Diorite Complex, a cogenetic intrusive complex intruding the Talahib Volcanic Sequence; (iii) the Calatagan Formation, a Late Miocene to Early Pliocene volcanosedimentary formation unconformably overlying the Talahib Volcanic Sequence; (iv) the Dacite Porphyry Intrusives, which intruded the older lithological units; and (v) the Balibago Andesite, a Pliocene postmineralization volcaniclastic unit. K‐Ar dating on illite collected from the alteration haloes around quartz veins demonstrated that the age of mineralization is around 5.9 ± 0.2 to 5.5 ± 0.2 Ma (Late Miocene). Two main styles of mineralization are identified in Kay Tanda. The first style is an early‐stage extensive epithermal mineralization characterized by stratabound Au‐Ag‐bearing quartz stockworks hosted at the shallower levels of the Talahib Volcanic Sequence. The second style is a late‐stage base metal (Zn, Pb, and Cu) epithermal mineralization with local bonanza‐grade Au mineralization hosted in veins and hydrothermal breccias that are intersected at deeper levels of the Talahib Volcanic Sequence and at the shallower levels of the Balibago Intrusive Complex. Paragenetic studies on the mineralization in Kay Tanda defined six stages of mineralization; the first two belong to the first mineralization style, while the last four belong to the second mineralization style. Stage 1 is composed of quartz ± pyrophyllite ± dickite/kaolinite ± diaspore alteration, which is cut by quartz veins. Stage 2 is composed of Au‐Ag‐bearing quartz stockworks associated with pervasive illite ± quartz ± smectite ± kaolinite alteration. Stage 3 is composed of carbonate veins with minor base metal sulfides. Stage 4 is composed of quartz ± adularia ± calcite veins and hydrothermal breccias, hosting the main base metal and bonanza‐grade Au mineralization, and is associated with chlorite‐illite‐quartz alteration. Stage 5 is composed of epidote‐carbonate veins associated with epidote‐calcite‐chlorite alteration. Stage 6 is composed of anhydrite‐gypsum veins with minor base metal mineralization. The alteration assemblage of the deposit evolved from an acidic mineral assemblage caused by the condensation of magmatic volatiles from the Balibago Intrusive Complex into the groundwater to a slightly acidic mineral assemblage caused by the interaction of the host rocks and the circulating hydrothermal waters being heated up by the Dacite Porphyry Intrusives to a near‐neutral pH toward the later parts of the mineralization. Fluid inclusion microthermometry indicates that the temperature of the system started to increase during Stage 1 (T = 220–250°C) and remained at high temperatures (T = 250–290°C) toward Stage 6 due to the continuous intrusion of Dacite Porphyry Intrusives at depth. Salinity slightly decreased toward the later stages due to the contribution of more meteoric waters into the hydrothermal system. Boiling is considered the main mechanism of ore deposition based on the occurrence of rhombic adularia, the heterogeneous trapping of fluid inclusions of variable liquid–vapor ratios, the distribution of homogenization temperatures, and the gas ratios obtained from the quantitative fluid inclusion gas analysis of quartz. Ore mineral assemblage and sulfur fugacity determined from the FeS content of sphalerite at temperatures estimated by fluid inclusion microthermometry indicate that the base metal mineralization at Kay Tanda evolved from a high sulfidation to an intermediate sulfidation condition.  相似文献   

Runoff generation in zero-order precambrian shield catchments: The stormflow response of a heterogeneous landscape     

Craig J. Allan  Nigel T. Roulet 《水文研究》1994,8(4):369-388

Hydrometric and isotopic (oxygen-18) observations were used to delineate the runoff processes operating in several headwater catchments on the Precambrian Shield of Canada. The catchments comprise patches of conifer forest situated on thin soils among areas of lichen-covered granitic bedrock. Horton overland flow occurred from the lichen-bedrock areas in all precipitation events that exceeded 4–6 mm. Runoff from the forest stands occurred mainly as subsurface stormflow, but in some instances saturation overland flow was observed. The occurrence of saturation overland flow was controlled by the topography of the bedrock beneath the forest soils. The area contributing runoff and the pathway by which water was conveyed to the catchment outflow switched from the open lichen-bedrock areas producing overland flow on the rising limb of the storm hydrograph to the forest stands contributing subsurface stormflow on the recession limb of the hydrograph. The areal extent and position of the landscape units in the basin were important to the rate and magnitude of stormflow production. Runoff was generated from the catchments only during and immediately after snowmelt and/or rainfall events. The catchments were dry and/or frozen for about 70% of the year.  相似文献   

Hydrology of a headwater basin wetland: Groundwater discharge and wetland maintenance     

Nigel T. Roulet 《水文研究》1990,4(4):387-400

The link between groundwater and surface hydrology in a small headwater drainage basin in the zone of glacial deposition of southern Ontario south of the Precambrian Shield was examined for two years. The basin is situated in a discharge zone of a regional aquifer and contains a small treed spring-fed swamp. The swamp exists because of the groundwater and has little effect on the maintenance of streamflow. Groundwater input to the swamp is an order of magnitude larger than precipitation. Groundwater of local and regional origin passes through the swamp by two routes: surface streamlets, where groundwater that emerges at specific seepage points in the swamp is conveyed over the ground surface with little interaction with the swamp itself, and by diffuse seepage in the swamp and through the bed of the stream. While the diffuse seepage input is the smaller component of groundwater it maintains the swamp's saturation. Groundwater input to the swamp from the specific seepage points and diffuse flow varies little over a year; therefore the saturation of the swamp and baseflow from the basin display little seasonal variation compared to other wetland types. The existence of the valley bottom in the headwater basin alters the seasonal and storm hydrology and is important to biogeochemical transformation of emerging groundwater.  相似文献   

A granite–gabbro complex from Madagascar: constraints on melting of the lower crust     

Andy?McMillan  Nigel?B.?W.?HarrisEmail author  Marian?Holness  Lewis?Ashwal  Simon?Kelley  Roger?Rambeloson 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2003,145(5):585-599

The Ranomandry Complex is a Neoproterozoic, nested intrusion from central Madagascar composed of a gabbroic core within a coeval peraluminous granite ring intruding pelitic metasediments. Although xenocryst entrainment and magma mixing have both contributed to marginal phases of the granite, the primary melt is characterised by steep LREE/HREE ratios and negligible, or slightly positive, Eu anomalies. Both isotopic and trace element systematics preclude an origin from either partial melting of the metapelitic country rock or from fractional crystallisation of the gabbroic magma. However, trace-element modelling suggests an origin from the dehydration melting of a plagioclase-poor, garnet-bearing metagreywacke at temperatures of 850–900 °C and at lower crustal pressures (>10 kbar). Melting of an enriched subcontinental mantle generated gabbroic magmas that caused advective heating and anatexis at the base of thickened continental crust during their ascent. Transport of the resulting granite magma was facilitated by the pre-existing plumbing system that overcame thermal and mechanical problems associated with both diapirism and self-propagating dykes as mechanisms for long-distance transport of granite magmas. The nested geometry of the intrusions is an indication of a structurally homogeneous lower crust that contains no pre-existing shear zones or fault systems.  相似文献