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101.
102.
In this paper we describe a CDC-Cyber 74 program for computer simulation of the evolution of a system consisting of a large number of objects in orbit around a central body or primary. Some preliminary tests done with the program will also be described.  相似文献   
103.
This paper presents a methodology for hydrograph separation in mountain watersheds, which aims at identifying flow sources among ungauged headwater sub‐catchments through a combination of observed streamflow and data on natural tracers including isotope and dissolved solids. Daily summer and bi‐daily spring season water samples obtained at the outlet of the Juncal River Basin in the Andes of Central Chile were analysed for all major ions as well as stable water isotopes, δ18O and δD. Additionally, various samples from rain, snow, surface streams and exfiltrating subsurface water (springs) were sampled throughout the catchment. A principal component analysis was performed in order to address cross‐correlation in the tracer dataset, reduce the dimensionality of the problem and uncover patterns of variability. Potential sources were identified in a two‐component U‐space that explains 94% of the observed tracer variability at the catchment outlet. Hydrograph separation was performed through an Informative‐Bayesian model. Our results indicate that the Juncal Norte Glacier headwater sub‐catchment contributed at least 50% of summer flows at the Juncal River Basin outlet during the 2011–2012 water year (a hydrologically dry period in the Region), even though it accounts for only 27% of the basin area. Our study confirms the value of combining solute and isotope information for estimating source contributions in complex hydrologic systems, and provides insights regarding experimental design in high‐elevation semi‐arid catchments. The findings of this study can be useful for evaluating modelling studies of the hydrological consequences of the rapid decrease in glacier cover observed in this region, by providing insights into the origin of river water in basins with little hydrometeorological information. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
104.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is increasingly depicted as an important element of the carbon dioxide mitigation portfolio. However, critics have warned that CCS might lead to “reinforced fossil fuel lock-in”, by perpetuating a fossil fuel based energy provision system. Due to large-scale investments in CCS infrastructure, the fossil fuel based ‘regime’ would be perpetuated to at least the end of this century.In this paper we investigate if and how CCS could help to avoid reinforcing fossil fuel lock-in. First we develop a set of criteria to estimate the degree of technological lock-in. We apply these criteria to assess the lock-in reinforcement effect of adding CCS to the fossil fuel socio-technical regime (FFR).In principle, carbon dioxide could be captured from any carbon dioxide point source. In the practice of present technological innovations, business strategies, and policy developments, CCS is most often coupled to coal power plants. However, there are many point sources of carbon dioxide that are not directly related to coal or even fossil fuels. For instance, many forms of bio-energy or biomass-based processes generate significant streams of carbon dioxide emissions. Capturing this carbon dioxide which was originally sequestered in biomass could lead to negative carbon dioxide emissions.We use the functional approach of technical innovations systems (TIS) to estimate in more detail the strengths of the “niches” CCS and Bio-Energy with CCS (BECCS). We also assess the orientation of the CCS niche towards the FFR and the risk of crowding out BECCS. Next we develop pathways for developing fossil energy carbon capture and storage, BECCS, and combinations of them, using transition pathways concepts. The outcome is that a large-scale BECCS development could be feasible under certain conditions, thus largely avoiding the risk of reinforced fossil fuel lock-in.  相似文献   
105.
Two factors determine whether pollution is likely to affect a population indirectly through loss of prey: firstly, the sensitivity of the prey to the pollutants, and secondly, the sensitivity of the predator population to loss of prey at the given life stage. We here apply a statistical recruitment model for Northeast Arctic cod to evaluate the sensitivity of cod cohorts to loss of zooplankton prey, for example following an oil spill. The calculations show that cod cohorts are highly sensitive to possible zooplankton biomass reductions in the distribution area of the cod larvae, and point to a need for more knowledge about oil-effects on zooplankton. Our study illustrates how knowledge about population dynamics may guide which indirect effects to consider in environmental impact studies.  相似文献   
106.
Hydrocarbons such as CH4 are known to be formed through the Fischer-Tropsch or Sabatier type reactions in hydrothermal systems usually at temperatures above 100°C. Weathering of olivine is sometimes suggested to account for abiotic formation of CH4 through its redox lowering and water splitting properties. Knowledge about the CH4 and H2 formation processes at low temperatures is important for the research about the origin and cause of early Earth and Martian CH4 and for CO2 sequestration. We have conducted a series of low temperature, long-term weathering experiments in which we have tested the CH4 and H2 formation potential of forsteritic olivine.The results show low temperature CH4 production that is probably influenced by chromite and magnetite as catalysts. Extensive analyses of a potential CH4 source trapped in the crystal structure of the olivine showed no signs of incorporated CH4. Also, the available sources of organic carbon were not enough to support the total amount of CH4 detected in our experiments. There was also a linear relationship between silica release into solution and the net CH4 accumulation into the incubation bottle headspaces suggesting that CH4 formation under these conditions could be a qualitative indicator of olivine dissolution.It is likely that minerals such as magnetite, chromite and other metal-rich minerals found on the olivine surface catalyze the formation of CH4, because of the low temperature of the system. This may expand the range of environments plausible for abiotic CH4 formation both on Earth and on other terrestrial bodies.  相似文献   
107.
Extremely low summer sea-ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean in 2007 allowed extensive sampling and a wide quasi-synoptic hydrographic and δ18O dataset could be collected in the Eurasian Basin and the Makarov Basin up to the Alpha Ridge and the East Siberian continental margin. With the aim of determining the origin of freshwater in the halocline, fractions of river water and sea-ice meltwater in the upper 150 m were quantified by a combination of salinity and δ18O in the Eurasian Basin. Two methods, applying the preformed phosphate concentration (PO*) and the nitrate-to-phosphate ratio (N/P), were compared to further differentiate the marine fraction into Atlantic and Pacific-derived contributions. While PO*-based assessments systematically underestimate the contribution of Pacific-derived waters, N/P-based calculations overestimate Pacific-derived waters within the Transpolar Drift due to denitrification in bottom sediments at the Laptev Sea continental margin.Within the Eurasian Basin a west to east oriented front between net melting and production of sea-ice is observed. Outside the Atlantic regime dominated by net sea-ice melting, a pronounced layer influenced by brines released during sea-ice formation is present at about 30–50 m water depth with a maximum over the Lomonosov Ridge. The geographically distinct definition of this maximum demonstrates the rapid release and transport of signals from the shelf regions in discrete pulses within the Transpolar Drift.The ratio of sea-ice derived brine influence and river water is roughly constant within each layer of the Arctic Ocean halocline. The correlation between brine influence and river water reveals two clusters that can be assigned to the two main mechanisms of sea-ice formation within the Arctic Ocean. Over the open ocean or in polynyas at the continental slope where relatively small amounts of river water are found, sea-ice formation results in a linear correlation between brine influence and river water at salinities of about 32–34. In coastal polynyas in the shallow regions of the Laptev Sea and southern Kara Sea, sea-ice formation transports river water into the shelf’s bottom layer due to the close proximity to the river mouths. This process therefore results in waters that form a second linear correlation between brine influence and river water at salinities of about 30–32. Our study indicates which layers of the Arctic Ocean halocline are primarily influenced by sea-ice formation in coastal polynyas and which layers are primarily influenced by sea-ice formation over the open ocean. Accordingly we use the ratio of sea-ice derived brine influence and river water to link the maximum in brine influence within the Transpolar Drift with a pulse of shelf waters from the Laptev Sea that was likely released in summer 2005.  相似文献   
108.
The world is generally becoming less violent, but the debate on climate change raises the specter of a new source of instability and conflict. In this field, the policy debate is running well ahead of its academic foundation—and sometimes even contrary to the best evidence. Although comparative research on security implications of climate change is rapidly expanding, major gaps in knowledge still exist. Taken together, extant studies provide mostly inconclusive insights, with contradictory or weak demonstrated effects of climate variability and change on armed conflict. This article reviews the empirical literature on short-term climate/environmental change and intrastate conflict, with special attention to possible insecurity consequences of precipitation and temperature anomalies and weather-related natural disasters. Based on this assessment, it outlines priorities for future research in this area.  相似文献   
109.
The recent increase in the rate of the Greenland ice sheet melting has raised with urgency the question of the impact of such a melting on the climate. As former model projections, based on a coarse representation of the melting, show very different sensitivity to this melting, it seems necessary to consider a multi-model ensemble to tackle this question. Here we use five coupled climate models and one ocean-only model to evaluate the impact of 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) of freshwater equally distributed around the coast of Greenland during the historical era 1965–2004. The ocean-only model helps to discriminate between oceanic and coupled responses. In this idealized framework, we find similar fingerprints in the fourth decade of hosing among the models, with a general weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Initially, the additional freshwater spreads along the main currents of the subpolar gyre. Part of the anomaly crosses the Atlantic eastward and enters into the Canary Current constituting a freshwater leakage tapping the subpolar gyre system. As a consequence, we show that the AMOC weakening is smaller if the leakage is larger. We argue that the magnitude of the freshwater leakage is related to the asymmetry between the subpolar-subtropical gyres in the control simulations, which may ultimately be a primary cause for the diversity of AMOC responses to the hosing in the multi-model ensemble. Another important fingerprint concerns a warming in the Nordic Seas in response to the re-emergence of Atlantic subsurface waters capped by the freshwater in the subpolar gyre. This subsurface heat anomaly reaches the Arctic where it emerges and induces a positive upper ocean salinity anomaly by introducing more Atlantic waters. We found similar climatic impacts in all the coupled ocean–atmosphere models with an atmospheric cooling of the North Atlantic except in the region around the Nordic Seas and a slight warming south of the equator in the Atlantic. This meridional gradient of temperature is associated with a southward shift of the tropical rains. The free surface models also show similar sea-level fingerprints notably with a comma-shape of high sea-level rise following the Canary Current.  相似文献   
110.
For the first time, new material of one of the world's oldest known tetrapods, Acanthostega, has been studied in its sedimentological context. The reported evidence suggests that Acanthostega was primarily aquatic and inhabited active fluvial channels in fluvial-dominated environments.  相似文献   
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