Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, USA     

Julie A. Vano  Nathalie Voisin  Lan Cuo  Alan F. Hamlet  Marketa McGuire Elsner  Richard N. Palmer  Austin Polebitski  Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):261-286

Climate change is projected to result, on average, in earlier snowmelt and reduced summer flows in the Pacific Northwest, patterns not well represented in historical observations used in water planning. We evaluate the sensitivities of water supply systems in the Puget Sound basin cities of Everett, Seattle, and Tacoma to historical and projected future streamflow variability and water demands. We simulate streamflow for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s using the distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM), driven by downscaled ensembles of climate simulations archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. We use these streamflow predictions as inputs to reservoir system models for the three water supply systems. Over the next century, under average conditions all systems are projected to experience declines and eventual disappearance of the springtime snowmelt peak. How these shifts affect management depends on physical characteristics, operating objectives, and the adaptive capacity of each system. Without adaptations, average seasonal drawdown of reservoir storage is projected to increase in all three systems throughout the 21st century. Reliability of all systems in the absence of demand increases is robust through the 2020s however, and remains above 98% for Seattle and Everett in the 2040s and 2080s. With demand increases, however, reliability of the systems in their current configurations and with current operating policies progressively declines through the century.  相似文献   

Reconstructed streamflow for Citarum River, Java, Indonesia: linkages to tropical climate dynamics     

Rosanne D��Arrigo  Nerilie Abram  Caroline Ummenhofer  Jonathan Palmer  Manfred Mudelsee 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(3-4):451-462

The Citarum river basin of western Java, Indonesia, which supplies water to 10 million residents in Jakarta, has become increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic change. Citarum??s streamflow record, only ~45?years in length (1963-present), is too short for understanding the full range of hydrometeorological variability in this important region. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of September?CNovember Citarum streamflow (AD 1759?C2006), one of the first such records available for monsoon Asia. Close coupling is observed between decreased tree growth and low streamflow levels, which in turn are associated with drought caused by ENSO warm events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean positive dipole-type variability. Over the full length of record, reconstructed variance was at its weakest during the interval from ~1905?C1960, overlapping with a period of unusually-low variability (1920?C1960) in the ENSO-Indian Ocean dipole systems. In subsequent decades, increased variance in both the streamflow anomalies and a coral-based SST reconstruction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode signal the potential for intensified drought activity and related consequences for water supply and crop productivity in western Java, where much of the country??s rice is grown.  相似文献   

Chemical compositions of tourmaline in the Yindongzi-Tongmugou Pb-Zn deposits,Qinling, China: Implications for hydrothermal ore-forming processes     

S. -Y. Jiang  M. R. Palmer  Y. -H. Li  C. -J. Xue 《Mineralium Deposita》1995,30(3-4):225-234

A microprobe study has been carried out on the chemical composition of tourmaline from the Yindongzi and Tongmugou stratabound Pb-Zn ore deposits, eastern Qinling, China. Tourmaline was analysed from a variety of rock types representative of its various occurrences associated with the ore bodies. All the tourmalines studied here belong to the schorl-dravite series. Most are of hydrothermal origin with Mg > Fe and Na > Ca. Some detrital cores of tourmaline have been recognized from their geometry and chemistry, with Fe > Mg. The chemical trends from core to rim in zoned grains suggest a multi-stage model for the growth of tourmaline and genesis of the ore bodies. The first stage was represented by a more Mg-rich hydrothermal fluid in the submarine hydrothermal system, producing Mg-rich tourmalines by selective replacement of clay-rich sediments close to the sediment-water interface. The second stage was dominated by Fe-rich hydrothermal fluid and resulted in overgrowth of Fe-rich tourmaline rims. This stage also led to the nucleation and growth of new tourmaline crystals and was responsible for the formation of the main massive sulphide orebodies. Finally, a further period of hydrothermal activity or a metamorphic event led to the formation of an additional rim of Mg-rich tourmaline.  相似文献   

Paleosols and their relevance to Precambrian atmospheric composition     

Palmer JA  Phillips GN  McCarthy TS 《The Journal of geology》1989,97(1):77-92

Various paleosols have been reported from within the Witwatersrand and Ventersdorp Supergroups, South Africa. They were studied in an attempt to constrain the amount of oxygen available in the atmosphere during deposition of the gold- and uranium-bearing Witwatersrand conglomerates. The majority of these horizons do not have any physical characteristics of paleosols, and none of them have a chemistry consistent with weathering, suggesting they have been subjected to modification by later alteration processes. A similar chemistry, indicating overprinting of any original soil chemistry, has been reported from paleosols elsewhere (Elliot Lake region, Canada; Hekpoort basalt, South Africa), but it does not appear that significant cognizance has been taken of this fact when using these paleosols to determine the composition of the Precambrian atmosphere. It is concluded here that characteristics previously attributed to Precambrian weathering in an oxygen-deficient atmosphere are better explained by post-burial, hydrothermal alteration along lithological contacts.  相似文献   

Removal of Phosphate in Aqueous Solution by Permethylated Poly(ethyleneimine) Entfernung von Phosphat mit permethyliertem Poly(ethylenimin) in wäßriger Lösung     

V. Palmer  R. Zhou  K. E. Geckeler  E. Bayer 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1994,22(5):231-235

The use of cationic, water-soluble, permethylated poly(ethyleneimine) (PMP) for the removal of phosphate ions was investigated using the Liquid-phase Polymer-based Retention (LPR) technique. The results showed that the retention values were dependent on the filtration factor (Z) and pH. In the presence of 10 mg/L phosphate and 1% PMP, 52% of the phosphate was retained at pH = 1.0 and 93% at pH = 8.5 for Z = 2. However only 11% of phosphate was retained at pH = 1.0 and 80% at pH = 8.5 for Z = 5. The maximum binding capacity of phosphate by 1% of PMP was 22 mg phosphate per gram of PMP at pH = 1.0 and 185 mg phosphate per gram of PMP at pH = 7.0. The influence of nitrate, chloride, and sulfate ions on the interaction of phosphate ions with PMP was also investigated. It was found that the interaction is strongly influenced by sulfate ions. In addition, viscosimetric measurements were performed and discussed.  相似文献   

A Biota Associated with Matuyama-Age Sediments in West-Central Illinois     

Barry B. Miller  Russell W. Graham  Alan V. Morgan  Norton G. Miller  William D. McCoy  Donald F. Palmer  Alison J. Smith  J. J. Pilny 《Quaternary Research》1994,41(3)

A fossil assemblage containing molluscs, mammals, insects, ostracodes, and plants has been recovered from a silt-filled depression near Lima, in west-central Illinois. The reversed remanent magnetic signature of the sediments and the temporal ranges of two mammals, Microtus paroperarius and Lasiopodomys deceitensis, constrain the age of the assemblage to between 730,000 and 830,000 yr B.P. The extent of isoleucine epimerization in the molluscan shell is consistent with this age interpretation. The fauna includes at least 43 taxa of beetles from 11 families, 35 nominal species of molluscs, and two genera of ostracodes. The mammals include two shrews, three rodents, and a rabbit. The plant macrofossils (no pollen recovered) include 25 species of seed plants and four kinds of terrestrial or wetland mosses. Most of the plant species identified still occur in the upper Midwest, although a few of the taxa are found mainly to the north of the site. The fauna is characterized by an almost total absence of true aquatic taxa. The association of both boreal and thermophilous faunal and floral elements suggest that summer temperatures were not greatly different from present ones, but cooler, moist areas must have been available to support the boreal elements. Local conditions were probably similar to those now found in northeastern Iowa, where rains blocks, fissures, and joints in carbonate bedrock serve as traps for debris accumulations, provide shade, and are kept cool and moist during the hot summer months by cold-air drainage and groundwater seepage. Summer mean temperature in these microhabitats was probably between 18 and 20°C, similar to temperatures that now occur near the northern hardwood spruce-fir transition in the eastern United States.  相似文献   

THE CORRELATIONS BETWEEN SST AND SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE EFFECT OF THE SST ANOMALY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON THE SUMMER MONSOON AND PRECIPITATION          下载免费PDF全文

Sun Zhaobo  Zhang jiji  T. N. Palmer 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1988,2(4):426-435

By use of the method of empirical orthogonal function resolution a study is made of the distributionpatterns of summer rainfall percentage anomalies over eastern China with the result that such anomalies areable to reflect the relative amount of local precipitation.Then the correlations are obtained through calcula-tion between the patterns and the January and June global SST,indicating key regions in association withChina's summer rainfall.On this basis,an 11-layer atmospheric circulation model by the U.K.Meteorol-ogical Office is used to simulate the effect of a weak SST anomaly of the South China Sea upon the summermonsoon circulation in China's mainland.Results show that‘attraction’is available for the Indian monsoonwith a warm anomaly of the SST and‘repelling’with a cold,representing one of the reasons for the anti-phase between the monsoons over the South China Sea and India.Such functions of SST anomalies have asignificant influence on summer rainfall over eastern China.  相似文献   

Twinning in tetragonal leucite     

David C. Palmer  Andrew Putnis  Ekhard K. H. Salje 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1988,16(3):298-303

The change from cubic to tetragonal symmetry in natural leucite, KAlSi₂O₆, involves two types of twinning, which appear sequentially with decreasing temperature: (1) lamellar, associated with the point group symmetry reduction m3m to 4/mmm; (2) merohedric, associated with the change 4/mmm to 4/m. Twin orientations have been deduced from X-ray precession photos and TEM diffraction patterns and images. These are confirmed by theory, using the concept of spontaneous strain and the symmetry relations between adjacent domains. Lamellar twins have boundaries parallel to {101} of the cubic phase, and are cross-cut by the merohedric twins, which have irregular boundaries with x and y in adjacent domains interchanged. On an electron microscopic scale, the distortion arising from twin intersections is revealed by a curvature of one twin wall adjacent to another, and by needle-shaped domains. The macroscopic orientation of the lamellar twins is related to the lattice parameters and hence the magnitude of the spontaneous strain. This in turn leads to the characterisation of the order parameter for the m3m to 4/mmm transformation.  相似文献   

Swift and optical observations of GRB 050401     

Massimiliano De Pasquale  y P. Beardmore  S. D. Barthelmy  P. Boyd  D. N. Burrows  R. Fink  N. Gehrels  S. Kobayashi  K. O. Mason  R. McNought  J. A. Nousek  K. L. Page  D. M. Palmer  B. A. Peterson  P. A. Price  J. Rich  P. Roming  S. R. Rosen  T. Sakamoto  B. P. Schmidt  J. Tueller  A. A. Wells  S. Zane  B. Zhang  H. Ziaeepour 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,365(3):1031-1038

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Ground-Based Observations Of Lunar Meteoritic Phenomena     

Cudnik  Brian M.  Dunham  David W.  Palmer  David M.  Cook  Anthony  Venable  Roger  Gural  Peter S. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2003,93(3):145-161

The occurrence and visibility of meteoroid impacts on the moon as seen from the earth were little more than speculation prior to November 1999. The best evidence of present-day impact activity came from the seismic experiments left on the Moon during the Apollo era. Past systematic attempts at earth-based observations to document lunar impacts revealed nothing conclusive. However, during the Leonid storms of 1999 and 2001, lunar impact events were for the first time confirmed by multiple independent observers. A total of 15 meteoritic impact flash events have been verified during these storms, with an additional 12 unconfirmed but likely events awaiting confirmation. Estimates of the mass of these meteoroids range from less than one gram for the faintest flashes to more than 10 kg for the brightest observed flash. The fraction of visible light to total energy produced by these events, a quantity known as luminous efficiency, averages about 0.001 for the established events. The confirmation of lunar meteoritic events on the Moon opens a new avenue in lunar and planetary research, one which could help bridge the gap between atmospheric sampling of the smallest components of meteoroid streams and interplanetary debris to the larger scale objects accessible to ground-based telescopes.  相似文献