Hydronumeric modelling of the darß-zingst bodden chain during the storm surge of november 3 and 4, 1995     

H. J. Schönfeldt 《Ocean Dynamics》1997,49(1):45-55

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A reexamination of the valley wind system in the Alpine Inn Valley with numerical simulations   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

G. Zängl 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2004,87(4):241-256

Summary This paper presents idealized numerical simulations of the valley wind circulation in the Alpine Inn Valley, which are compared with existing data and are used to improve our dynamical understanding of the valley wind. The simulations have been performed with the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. They use a high-resolution realistic topography but idealized large-scale conditions without any synoptic forcing to focus on the thermally induced valley wind system. The comparison with the available observations shows that this simplified set-up is sufficient to reproduce the essential features of the valley wind.The results show that the tributaries of the Inn Valley have a considerable impact on the along-valley mass fluxes associated with the valley wind circulation. The upvalley mass flux is found to increase where tributaries enter the Inn Valley from the north, that is, from the direction where the Alpine foreland is located. On the other hand, the upvalley mass flux is reduced at the junctions with southern tributaries because part of the upvalley flow is deflected into these tributaries. For the downvalley flow, the situation is essentially reversed, but the influence of the valley geometry on the flow structure is larger than for the upvalley flow. The most important feature is a lateral valley contraction near the valley exit into the Alpine foreland. It reduces the downvalley mass flux at low levels, so that the wind maximum in the interior of the valley is shifted to a fairly large distance from the ground. North of the valley contraction, however, the downvalley flow strongly accelerates and forms a pronounced low-level jet. A dynamical analysis indicates that this acceleration can be interpreted as a transition from subcritical to supercritical hydraulic flow. Another interesting feature is that the low-level jet maintains its structure for several tenths of kilometres into the Alpine foreland. This appears to be related to the fact that the lateral wind shear on the flanks of the jet is associated with a strong dipole of potential vorticity (PV). Due to the conservation properties of the PV, the downstream advection of the PV dipole leads to the formation of a band-like feature that decays fairly slowly.  相似文献   

Climate and Water: From Climate Models to Water Resources Management and Vice Versa   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Olli Varis  Tommi Kajander  Risto Lemmelä 《Climatic change》2004,66(3):321-344

This article reviews the recent developments in the functional chain from climate models to climate scenarios, through hydrology all the way to water resources management, design and policy making. Although climate models, such as Global Circulation Models (GCMs) continue to evolve, their outputs remain crude and often even inappropriate to watershed-scale hydrological analyses. The bridging techniques are evolving, though. Many families of regionalization technologies are under progress in parallel. Perhaps the most important advances are in the field of regional weather patterns, such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and many more. The gap from hydrology to water resources development is by far not that wide. The traditional and contemporary practices are well in place. In climate change studies, the bottleneck is not in this link itself but in the climatic input. The tendency seems to be towards integrated water resources assessments, where climate is only one among many changes that are expected to occur, such as demography, land cover and land use, economy, technologies, and so forth. In such a pragmatic setting a risk–analytic interpretation of those scenarios is often called for. The above-outlined continuum from climate to water is a topic where the physically based modelers, the empiricists and the pragmatists should not get restricted to their own way of thinking. The issues should develop hand in hand. Perhaps the greatest challenge is to incorporate and respect the pragmatic policy-related component to the two other branches. For this purpose, it is helpful to reverse the direction of thinking from time to time to start—instead of climate models—from practical needs and think how the climate scenarios and models help really in the difficult task of designing better water structures, outline better policies and formulate better operational rules in the water field.  相似文献   

Revising macroseismic data in Switzerland: The December 20, 1720 earthquake in the region of Lake Constance     

Monika Gisler  Donat Fäh  Reto Schibler 《Journal of Seismology》2004,8(2):179-192

Upgrading the Earthquake Catalog of Switzerland (ECOS) included revising the earthquake of 1720. This change has major importance for history and seismology.Although that quake has been the subject of several publications, none was based on critical methods. This re-evaluation of the event is built upon a new and more reliable database established after investigating archives and libraries. Using data from such historical sources, we assigned new site intensities, adopting the criteria established by the European macroseismic scale EMS 98 (Grünthal, 1998).We discovered that the event had been assigned an overestimated intensity, due to interpretation errors in former earthquake catalogs and compilations. We recommend reducing the intensity from I₀= VIII to I₀= VI (EMS 98). The moment magnitude is given as M_W= 4.6. Since the event had been considered the largest for its respective area, downgrading it now will influence the seismic hazard assessment for this region.  相似文献   

Ambiguous Moment Tensors and Radiation Patterns in Anisotropic Media with Applications to the Modeling of Earthquake Mechanisms in W-Bohemia   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Rössler  D.  Rümpker  G.  Krüger  F. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2004,48(1):233-250

Anisotropic material properties are usually neglected during inversions for source parameters of earthquakes. In general anisotropic media, however, moment tensors for pure-shear sources can exhibit significant non-double-couple components. Such effects may be erroneously interpreted as an indication for volumetric changes at the source. Here we investigate effects of anisotropy on seismic moment tensors and radiation patterns for pure-shear and tensile-type sources. Anisotropy can significantly influence the interpretation of the source mechanisms. For example, the orientation of the slip within the fault plane may affect the total seismic moment. Also, moment tensors due to pure-shear and tensile faulting can have similar characteristics depending on the orientation of the elastic tensor. Furthermore, the tensile nature of an earthquake can be obscured by near-source anisotropic properties. As an application, we consider effects of inhomogeneous anisotropic properties on the seismic moment tensor and the radiation patterns of a selected type of micro-earthquakes observed in W-Bohemia. The combined effects of near-source and along-path anisotropy cause characteristic amplitude distortions of the P, S1 and S2 waves. However, the modeling suggests that neither homogeneous nor inhomogeneous anisotropic properties alone can explain the observed large non-double-couple components.The results also indicate that a correct analysis of the source mechanism, in principle, is achievable by application of anisotropic moment tensor inversion.  相似文献   

Maximum Storm Surge Curve Due to Global Warming for the European North Sea Region During the 20th–21st Century     

Gönnert  Gabriele 《Natural Hazards》2004,32(2):211-218

Computations of storm surges during the 20th century needs to incorporate globalwarming of about 0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C (IPCC, 2001). In order totake this global warming into consideration, the development of all storm surgesoccurred during the 20th century have been analysed. The study comprises determiningto what degree the storm surge curve and storm surge level depend on each other. Thisfact can be used to calculate a maximum storm surge curve and each single storm surgeevent can be summarised. The tendency of the surge and wind parameters do not showthat this maximum storm surge levels in the 20th century will occur earlier than predicted, however, the global warming of 0.6 °C will extend the duration of the mean storm surge curve.  相似文献   

On the variability of the flow along the Meso-American Barrier Reef system: a numerical model study of the influence of the Caribbean current and eddies     

Tal Ezer  Deeptha V. Thattai  Björn Kjerfve  William D. Heyman 《Ocean Dynamics》2005,55(5-6):458-475

A high resolution (3–8 km grid), 3D numerical ocean model of the West Caribbean Sea (WCS) is used to investigate the variability and the forcing of flows near the Meso-American Barrier Reef System (MBRS) which runs along the coasts of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala and Honduras. Mesoscale variations in velocity and temperature along the reef were found in seasonal model simulations and in observations; these variations are associated with meandering of the Caribbean current (CC) and the propagation of Caribbean eddies. Diagnostic calculations and a simple assimilation technique are combined to infer the dynamically adjusted flow associated with particular eddies. The results demonstrate that when a cyclonic eddy (negative sea surface height anomaly (SSHA)) is found near the MBRS the CC shifts offshore, the cyclonic circulation in the Gulf of Honduras (GOH) intensifies, and a strong southward flow results along the reef. However, when an anticyclonic eddy (positive SSHA) is found near the reef, the CC moves onshore and the flow is predominantly westward across the reef. The model results help to explain how drifters are able to propagate in a direction opposite to the mean circulation when eddies cause a reversal of the coastal circulation. The effect of including the Meso-American Lagoon west of the Belize Reef in the model topography was also investigated, to show the importance of having accurate coastal topography in determining the variations of transports across the MBRS. The variations found in transports across the MBRS (on seasonal and mesoscale time scales) may have important consequences for biological activities along the reef such as spawning aggregations; better understanding the nature of these variations will help ongoing efforts in coral reef conservation and maintaining the health of the ecosystem in the region.  相似文献   

On the influence of adequate Weddell Sea characteristics in a large-scale global ocean circulation model     

H. H. Hellmer  M. P. Schodlok  M. Wenzel  J. G. Schröter 《Ocean Dynamics》2005,55(2):88-99

Global ocean circulation models usually lack an adequate consideration of high-latitude processes due to a limited model domain or insufficient resolution. Without the processes in key areas of the global thermohaline circulation, the characteristics and flow of deep and bottom waters cannot be modeled realistically. In this study, a high-resolution (~20 km) ocean model focused on the Weddell Sea sector of the Southern Ocean is combined with a low-resolution (2^° × 2^°) global ocean model applying the state estimation technique. Temperature, salinity, and velocity data on two Weddell Sea sections from the regional model are used as constraints for the large-scale model in addition to satellite altimetry and sea-surface temperatures. The differences between the model with additional constraints and without document that the Weddell Sea circulation exerts significant influence on the course of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current with consequences for Southern Ocean water mass characteristics and the spreading of deep and bottom waters in the South Atlantic. Furthermore, a warming trend in the period 1993–2001 was found in the Weddell Sea and adjacent basins in agreement with float measurements in the upper Southern Ocean. Teleconnections to the North Atlantic are suggested but need further studies to demonstrate their statistical significance.  相似文献   

Late Glacial to Holocene coastal changes of SE Rügen Island (Baltic Sea, NE Germany)     

Gösta Hoffmann  Jens Barnasch 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2005,67(2):132-141

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The lower marine to lower freshwater Molasse transition in the northern Alpine foreland basin (Oligocene; central Switzerland–south Germany): age and geodynamic implications     

Oliver Kempf  Jörg Pross 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2005,94(1):160-171

The Wilhelmine Alpe section near Immenstadt (Allgäu, south Germany), which represents one of the best continuously exposed outcrops within the northern Alpine foreland basin, has been analyzed for magnetostratigraphic and palynostratigraphic signals. The section comprises the marine-to-terrestrial transition from Lower Marine (UMM) to Lower Freshwater Molasse (USM) sediments. Based on the correlation of the local magnetic pattern with the geomagnetic polarity timescale (GPTS) and palynostratigraphic data, an age of about 31 Ma is suggested for the UMM–USM transition in the Wilhelmine Alpe section. A comparison with coeval magnetostratigraphic sections from central and eastern Switzerland indicates that the regression of the UMM sea along the southern margin of the Molasse basin occurred strongly heterochronously between 31.5 and 30 Ma. The heterochroneity is attributed to the deposition of fan-delta and alluvial fan sediments which document that the overall marine conditions during the UMM were accompanied by strong clastic input derived from the rising Alps. This clastic contribution had a much stronger influence on the depositional pattern than previously thought.  相似文献