Climate of Russia in the 21st Century. Part 2. Verification of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CMIP3 for projections of future climate changes     

V. A. Govorkova  V. M. Kattsov  V. P. Meleshko  T. V. Pavlova  I. M. Shkol’nik 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2008,33(8):467-477

Results of simulation of radiation, cloud cover, surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and hydrological regime components for Russia with the help of an ensemble of CMIP3 global climate models is analyzed. Despite a large spread among the models, the CMIP3 AOGCM ensemble simulations of the key characteristics of the observed surface climate agree well with observations, anyway in averaging over areas of vast regions, from watersheds of large rivers to the whole of Russia. These means (ensemble-and area-averaged values) often fall into the range of estimates derived from observations. This suggests the existence of uncertainty in the estimates obtained from simulations as well as from observational data. Comparison of different-generation models demonstrates a gradual improvement of the AOGCM simulation of surface climate characteristics. In general, the averaging over the CMIP3 AOGCM ensemble allows us to state that the ensemble is suitable for estimates of future climate changes.  相似文献   

Discharge of Salt Groundwater in the Estuary of the Razdol’naya River (Amur Bay) in February 2020     

Semkin  P. Yu.  Tishchenko  P. Ya.  Charkin  A. N.  Pavlova  G. Yu.  Tishchenko  P. P.  Anisimova  E. V.  Barabanshchikov  Yu. A.  Leusov  A. E.  Mikhailic  T. A.  Tibenko  E. Yu.  Chizhova  T. L. 《Water Resources》2021,48(3):345-350

Water Resources - In February 2020, geochemical tracers along with hydrochemical and hydrological characteristics were used to reveal a discharge site of salt groundwaters in the head of the...  相似文献   

Effect of the Solar Activity Variations on the NmF2 Variability under Geomagnetically Quiet Conditions According to Ionosonde Data over Moscow     

Pavlov  A. V.  Pavlova  N. M. 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2022,62(3):227-236

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Diurnal variations in the statistical characteristics of the day-to-day variability in the electron number density NmF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer maximum is studied...  相似文献   

Is There a Link between Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Increasing Frequency of Extremely Cold Winters in Eurasia and North America? Synthesis of Current Research     

V. P. Meleshko  V. M. Kattsov  V. M. Mirvis  A. V. Baidin  T. V. Pavlova  V. A. Govorkova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(11):743-755

Studies dealing with impact of the Arctic warming and related sea ice decline on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation are considered. The causes of occurrence of extremely cold winters over the mid-latitude continents observed in the recent decades against the warming background are discussed. Several conceptions are outlined which explain potential reasons for occurrence of this phenomenon. The paper discusses impacts of the Arctic sea ice loss on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, oscillations of planetary waves. It also discusses issues related to sea ice changes in the Barents and Kara seas and their link to the frequency of extremely cold winters observed in Eurasia and North America, the contribution of internal atmospheric variability to the increasing frequency of cold weather, and the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Arctic sea ice reduction.  相似文献   

Chemical composition of Russian Arctic precipitation in 2007-2015     

P. F. Svistov  N. A. Pershina  M. T. Pavlova  A. I. Polishchuk  E. S. Semenets 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2017,42(5):314-318

The results of observations of the chemical composition of precipitation in the Russian Arctic in 2007-2015 are summarized including the data from NP-35 drifting ice station obtained in 2007-2008 in the framework of the joint program of Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute and Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. The qualitative and quantitative difference in the chemical composition of precipitation in the Atlantic, Siberian, and Pacific sectors of the Russian Arctic is revealed. It is found that the concentration of microelements (heavy metals) in precipitation at NP-35 ice station did not exceed 12% of total ions at the lowest mineralization. The comparative analysis is presented of the concentration of sulfate ions in precipitation in Norilsk and at NP-35 ice stations.  相似文献   

Formation Mechanisms of the Spring–Autumn Asymmetry of the Midlatitudinal <Emphasis Type="Italic">NmF</Emphasis>2 under Daytime Quiet Geomagnetic Conditions at Low Solar Activity     

A. V. Pavlov  N. M. Pavlova 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2018,58(3):383-393

Formation mechanism of the spring–autumn asymmetry of the F2-layer peak electron number density of the midlatitudinal ionosphere, NmF2, under daytime quiet geomagnetic conditions at low solar activity are studied. We used the ionospheric parameters measured by the ionosonde and incoherent scatter radar at Millstone Hill on March 3, 2007, March 29, 2007, September 12, 2007, and September 18, 1984. The altitudinal profiles of the electron density and temperature were calculated for the studied conditions using a one-dimensional, nonstationary, ionosphere–plasmasphere theoretical model for middle geomagnetic latitudes. The study has shown that there are two main factors contributing to the formation of the observed spring–autumn asymmetry of NmF2: first, the spring–autumn variations of the plasma drift along the geomagnetic field due to the corresponding variations in the components of the neutral wind velocity, and, second, the difference between the composition of the neutral atmosphere under the spring and autumn conditions at the same values of the universal time and the ionospheric F2-layer peak altitude. The seasonal variations of the rate of O⁺(⁴S) ion production, which are associated with chemical reactions with the participation of the electronically excited ions of atomic oxygen, does not significantly affect the studied NmF2 asymmetry. The difference in the degree of influence of O⁺(⁴S) ion reactions with vibrationally excited N₂ and O₂ on NmF2 under spring and autumn conditions does not significantly change the spring–autumn asymmetry of NmF2.  相似文献   

IRI model in the problem of predicting ionospheric radio-wave propagation under conditions of high solar activity     

I.?V.?KrasheninnikovEmail author  N.?M.?Pavlova  Yu.?S.?Sitnov 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2017,57(6):719-726

The paper presents the results of an analysis of the correspondence between model representations the monthly mean diurnal dependences of critical frequency and vertical profiles of plasma frequency at local noon at IZMIRAN station for the middle months of the four seasons of 2014, the year of the maximum solar activity in the current 24th cycle. It is shown that in general the IRI model reliably describes the daily variation of foF2, and the smallest discrepancy is achieved when its basic input parameter is given by the ionospheric index of solar activity IG12. An exception is April, for which there is a fundamental discrepancy with the model both in the daily variation of the critical frequency foF2 and in the N _e (h)-profile for local noon time. For this month, the inadequacy in the model representation of the vertical distribution of the electron density turned out to be very significant in the calculation of the MUF: the relative error can reach 20%. The simulation results are confirmed by data from oblique-incidence ionospheric radio sounding.  相似文献   

Groundwater Hydrochemistry of Suprapermafrost–Intrapermafrost Flow in Their Discharge Areas in Central Yakutia     

Pavlova  N. A.  Shepelev  V. V.  Galanin  A. A.  Efremov  V. S. 《Water Resources》2020,47(4):581-590

Water Resources - The results of long-term studies of a group of aufeis-forming Buluus groundwater sources are given. A stow, which has been formed by the spring, contains the drainage area of the...  相似文献   

Diurnal Variations in the Statistical Characteristics of the Variability of the Midlatitude NmF2 during Quiet Geomagnetic Conditions at Low Solar Activity     

Pavlov  A. V.  Pavlova  N. M. 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2019,59(5):593-605

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The work examines diurnal variations in the statistical characteristics of the variability of the electron number density NmF2 of the maximum of the ionspheric F2 layer...  相似文献   

Dependences of statistical characteristics of <Emphasis Type="Italic">NmE</Emphasis> on the month of the year at middle and low latitudes under daytime geomagnetically quiet conditions at low solar activity     

A. V. Pavlov  N. M. Pavlova 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2016,56(4):401-406

Month-to-month changes in the statistical characteristics of the ionospheric E layer peak electron density NmE at medium and low geomagnetic latitudes under daytime geomagnetically quiet conditions are investigated. Critical frequencies of the ionospheric E layer measured by the middle latitude ionosonde Boulder and low latitude ionosondes Huancayo and Jicamarca at low solar activity from 1957 to 2015 have been used in the conducted statistical analysis. The mathematical expectation of NmE, standard deviation of NmE from the expectation of NmE, and NmE variation coefficient have been calculated for each month of the year. The months of the formation of extrema of these statistical parameters of NmE were found.  相似文献