Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change     

Peter J. Cowell  Thomas Q. Zeng 《Marine Geodesy》2003,26(1):5-18

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.  相似文献   

Letter to the editor     

Peter G. Wells 《Marine environmental research》1980,3(4):315-318

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Circulation over the continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Carter Ohlmann  P. Peter Niiler 《Progress in Oceanography》2005,64(1):45-81

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The weakening role of science in the management of groundfish off the east coast of Canada     

Shelton  Peter A. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):723-729

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Aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase activity in a population of brown bullhead (Ictalurus nebulosus) environmentally exposed to polycyclic hydrocarbons     

Jodon Traci Anne  Paul C. Baumann  Peter F. Landrum 《Marine environmental research》1988,24(1-4)

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On the radiated noise of the autosub autonomous underwater vehicle   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

Griffiths  Gwyn; Enoch  Peter; Millard  Nicholas W. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2001,58(6):1195-1200

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Spatial variability in petrophysical properties in Upper Maastrichtian chalk outcrops at Stevns Klint, Denmark     

Peter Frykman   《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2001,18(10)

The spatial variability of porosity and permeability was determined for a section in the uppermost Maastrichtian chalk exposed in the Sigerslev quarry at Stevns Klint. The aims were threefold: (1) to quantify the spatial variability pattern and its link to geology by applying systematic variogram analysis procedure, (2) to detect potential cyclicity in the petrophysical properties in this pure and overtly homogeneous chalk, and (3) to compare the section with chalk reservoirs in the North Sea in order to asses to what extent this onshore sequence has a potential as an analogue of the offshore, more deeply buried chalk reservoirs. The interval is of comparable stratigraphic age to the uppermost reservoir zones in the Tor Formation of the North Sea chalk reservoirs. The variability and spatial correlation of porosity and permeability in both horizontal and vertical directions are interpreted in a geological context and show indications of small-scale heterogeneity at 15–25 cm scale, but the clear cyclic layering described from other chalk deposits is not recognised at this locality. The investigated outcrop is not a close analogue to North Sea reservoir chalk, but some aspects are common including basic material properties, porosity/permeability trends and the variability pattern. The outcrop has a potential as analogue for some of the onshore subsurface chalk successions at shallow burial depth that form important aquifers.  相似文献   

A quantitative evaluation of the impact of beam trawling on benthic fauna in the southern North Sea     

Piet  G. J.; Rijnsdorp  A. D.; Bergman  M. J. N.; van Santbrink  J. W.; Craeymeersch  J.; Buijs  J. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2000,57(5):1332-1339

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A new method for the generation of second-order random waves     

Peter Jan van Leeuwen  Gert Klopman 《Ocean Engineering》1996,23(2):167-192

In order to prevent the generation of spurious free sub- and superharmonics of random waves in a laboratory channel, the control signal for the wave board has to be derived according to a higher-order wave theory. An expression for this control signal has been derived with the perturbation method of multiple scales. It is much less complex and requires less computation time than the expressions obtained from the full second-order theory. The new method for second-order subharmonics was verified experimentally for waves with bichromatic and continuous first-order spectra. The data were analysed with the complex-harmonic principal-component analysis to reduce the influence of noise.  相似文献   

Measurement of the redox speciation of iron in seawater by catalytic cathodic stripping voltammetry     

Martha Gledhill  Constant M. G. van den Berg 《Marine Chemistry》1995,50(1-4)

Catalytic cathodic stripping voltammetry (CSV) preceded by adsorptive collection of complexes of 1-nitroso-2-napthol (NN) can be used to determine iron in seawater. It is shown here that iron(II) is effectively masked in the presence of 2,2-dipyridyl (Dp) so that iron(III) is measured selectively. The concentration of iron(II) is then calculated as the difference between the concentrations of reactive iron (Fe_R) in the absence and presence of 2 μM Dp, Fe_R being defined as that which was complexed by 20 μM NN at pH 6.9 in the presence of 1.8 mM H₂O₂ and 5 ppm sodium dodecyl sulphate. A 30 min reaction time was allowed for Dp to react with iron(II) in seawater prior to the determination of reactive iron(III) using the same conditions as used for Fe_R. Detection limits of 0.08 nM, 0.077 nM and 0.12 nM were obtained for Fe_R, iron(III) and iron(II), respectively, using a 60 s deposition time.The method was utilised to determine the redox speciation of iron in the northern North Sea. Concentrations of Fe_R ranged between 0.8 and 3.5 nM with nutrient-like depth profiles. Iron(II) was found to be present at concentrations up to 1.2 nM, the highest concentrations occurring in the upper 20 m of the water column.  相似文献