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181.
Summary . Born inverse methods give accurate and stable results when the source wavelet is impulsive. However, in many practical applications (reflection seismology) an impulsive source cannot be realized and the inversion needs to be generalized to include an arbitrary source function. In this paper, we present a Born solution to the seismic inverse problem which can accommodate an arbitrary source function and give accurate and stable results. It is shown that the form of the generalized inversion algorithm reduces to a Wiener shaping ***filter, which is solved efficiently using a Levinson recursion algorithm. Numerical examples of synthetic and real field data illustrate the validity of our method.  相似文献   
182.
A closed form slug test theory for high permeability aquifers   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
We incorporate a linear estimate of casing friction into the analytical slug test theory of Springer and Gelhar (1991) for high permeability aquifers. The modified theory elucidates the influence of inertia and casing friction on consistent, closed form equations for the free surface, pressure, and velocity fluctuations for overdamped and underdamped conditions. A consistent, but small, correction for kinetic energy is included as well. A characteristic velocity linearizes the turbulent casing shear stress so that an analytical solution for attenuated, phase shifted pressure fluctuations fits a single parameter (damping frequency) to transducer data from any depth in the casing. Underdamped slug tests of 0.3, 0.6, and 1 m amplitudes at five transducer depths in a 5.1 cm diameter PVC well 21 m deep in the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer yield a consistent hydraulic conductivity of 1.5 x 10(-3) m/s. The Springer and Gelhar (1991) model underestimates the hydraulic conductivity for these tests by as much as 25% by improperly ascribing smooth turbulent casing friction to the aquifer. The match point normalization of Butler (1998) agrees with our fitted hydraulic conductivity, however, when friction is included in the damping frequency. Zurbuchen et al. (2002) use a numerical model to establish a similar sensitivity of hydraulic conductivity to nonlinear casing friction.  相似文献   
183.
In examining ship-mediated biological invasions, most research and treatment development has focused on ballast water. Another vector that has gained attention recently is vessels arriving in a "no ballast on board" (NOBOB) condition. Such ships retain relatively small, unpumpable volumes of water and sediment in their ballast tanks. Nonetheless, these unpumpable portions can represent great ecological risk. This scenario is relevant in the Great Lakes, which have experienced a dramatic series of introductions, despite most vessels arriving there as NOBOBs since 1994. We examined shipping patterns of NOBOBs arriving to lower Chesapeake Bay to begin evaluating their risk of biopollution. Only 14% of ships arrive as NOBOBs, and of those, 17% depart to another port in the upper bay. Most NOBOBs arrive from or leave for other US ports; proximate trans-Atlantic crossings are few. Given the nature of their operations, we conclude NOBOBs may represent a risk for aquatic nuisance species invasions to Chesapeake Bay.  相似文献   
184.
Most regional maps of soil productivity are based on the erroneous assumption that the soil series, the fundamental taxonomic unit, is also a homogeneous unit of productivity with consistent and predictable yields when compared with other series. This assumption may lead to significant errors in estimates of potential productivity, with profound implications for prime-land delimitation, tax assessment, zoning administration, and other policies that presently rely on published soil productivity ratings.  相似文献   
185.
Copper partitioning in a melt-vapor-brine-magnetite-pyrrhotite assemblage   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
The effect of sulfur on the partitioning of Cu in a melt-vapor-brine ± magnetite ± pyrrhotite assemblage has been quantified at 800 °C, 140 MPa, fO2 = nickel-nickel oxide (NNO), logfS2=-3.0 (i.e., on the magnetite-pyrrhotite curve at NNO), logfH2S=-1.3 and logfSO2=-1. All experiments were vapor + brine saturated. Vapor and brine fluid inclusions were trapped in silicate glass and self-healed quartz fractures. Vapor and brine are dominated by NaCl, KCl and HCl in the S-free runs and NaCl, KCl and FeCl2 in S-bearing runs. Pyrrhotite served as the source of sulfur in S-bearing experiments. The composition of fluid inclusions, glass and crystals were quantified by laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Major element, chlorine and sulfur concentrations in glass were quantified by using electron probe microanalysis. Calculated Nernst-type partition coefficients (±2σ) for Cu between melt-vapor, melt-brine and vapor-brine are , , and , respectively, in the S-free system. The partition coefficients (±2σ) for Cu between melt-vapor, melt-brine and vapor-brine are , , and , respectively, in the S-bearing system. Apparent equilibrium constants (±1σ) describing Cu and Na exchange between vapor and melt and brine and melt were also calculated. The values of are 34 ± 21 and 128 ± 29 in the S-free and S-bearing runs, respectively. The values of are 33 ± 22 and60 ± 5 in the S-free and S-bearing runs, respectively. The data presented here indicate that the presence of sulfur increases the mass transfer of Cu into vapor from silicate melt. Further, the nearly threefold increase in suggests that Cu may be transported as both a chloride and sulfide complex in magmatic vapor, in agreement with hypotheses based on data from natural systems. Most significantly, the data demonstrate that the presence of sulfur enhances the partitioning of Cu from melt into magmatic volatile phases.  相似文献   
186.
This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.
Emil D. AttanasiEmail:
  相似文献   
187.
The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast–northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays.  相似文献   
188.
We present the first continuous paleolimnological reconstruction from the North Island of New Zealand (37°S) that spans the last 48.2?cal kyr. A tephra- and radiocarbon-based chronology was developed to infer the timing of marked paleolimnological changes in Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand, identified using sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size and geochemistry (carbon, nitrogen and sulphur concentrations and fluxes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes). Variable erosional influx, biomass and benthic REDOX conditions are linked to changing effective precipitation and seasonality within three inferred broad intervals of climatic change: (1) the Last Glacial Coldest Phase (LGCP) of reduced effective precipitation and cooler temperatures, from 28.8 to 18.0?cal kyr BP, (2) the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT) of increasing effective precipitation and warmer conditions, from 18.0 to 10.2?cal?kyr?BP, and (3) a Holocene interval of high effective precipitation, beginning with a warm period of limited seasonality from 10.2?cal?kyr?BP and followed by increasing seasonality from 7.6?cal?kyr?BP. The LGCP and LGIT also contain millennial-scale climate events, including the coldest inferred glacial conditions during the LGCP from 27.8 to 26.0 and 22.0?C19.0?cal?kyr?BP, and a climate reversal in the LGIT associated with lower lake level, from 14.5 to 13.8?cal?kyr?BP, coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The onset of seasonal thermal stratification occurred at 5.7?cal?kyr?BP and was linked to natural eutrophication of Lake Pupuke, which produced enhanced organic sedimentation.  相似文献   
189.
Trends and periodicity analyses can provide information on climate variability inherent in a particular variable. In this study, trend tests and spectral analysis are used to examine the existence of trends and cycles in temperature series (1901–2000) of Nigeria. Periods 1901–1929 and 1942–1980 exhibited cooling trends while 1930–1941 and 1981–2000 showed warming trends. The warmest years in Nigeria were 1941, 1935, 1931 and 1987. The coldest years were 1929, 1975, 1925 and 1974. Whereas no significant trends were detected for 1901–1930 period, the standard period 1931–1960 was marked by significant cooling while 1961–1990 was marked with significant warming. Annual temperature has risen by 0.03?°C/decade during the last century. The overall warming was mostly confined to the south of 12°N especially during April and June. Changes in minimum temperature are higher than that of maximum temperature. The quasi-biennial oscillation was found in annual data for all the six zones with periods of about 2–4?years. Nigeria landscape is under strong North Atlantic Oscillation influence in dry season and under ENSO influence during wet season. Annual temperature series was also found to exhibit significant negative correlation with SOI.  相似文献   
190.
Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.  相似文献   
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