Vulnerability and its discontents: the past,present, and future of climate change vulnerability research     

James D. Ford  Tristan Pearce  Graham McDowell  Lea Berrang-Ford  Jesse S. Sayles  Ella Belfer 《Climatic change》2018,149(2):189-204

The agri-food sector must adapt to changes in climate variability, while also helping to mitigate climate change. Measures termed ‘triple-win’ mitigate and adapt to climate change, while also improving soil health, thereby increasing yields. These measures might appear to be the easiest to implement, but in practice, barriers prevent full realisation. This study aims to move beyond previous research efforts that identify and categorise barriers by (i) revealing hidden barriers, (ii) understanding the interactions between barriers and (iii) exploring ways to address barriers. A case study focusing on crop rotation as a triple-win strategy in Ukraine demonstrates how a participant-driven iterative research approach can achieve these objectives. During semi-structured interviews with farmers and stakeholders, crop rotation emerged as an area of considerable dissensus with stakeholders commonly citing the greedy behaviour of producers as the problem. Further discussion indicated that the political economy of Ukraine caused financial constraints for producers and Q methodology allowed for additional clarity on the opposing views of crop rotation. Three factors emerged: producer insecurity, national insecurity and business insecurity. These three perspectives reveal contrasting priorities with producer insecurity and business insecurity concerned with the conditions under which producers must operate, while national insecurity has a focus on improving agricultural production to benefit the nation. Consensus statements across all factors could provide first steps to addressing barriers and an opportunity to open discussions amongst stakeholders. Finally, barriers arising from political processes demonstrate that climate policy needs to be integrated with other sector-specific policy decisions.  相似文献   

Is public awareness and perceived threat of climate change associated with governmental mitigation targets?     

Aaron Drummond  Lauren C. Hall  James D. Sauer  Matthew A. Palmer 《Climatic change》2018,149(2):159-171

Social scientists and science communicators are concerned about the apparent discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change (Anderegg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109, 2010; Doran and Zimmerman EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 90:22–3, 2009) and the general public’s views (Knight Environ Sociol 2:101–113, 2016; Lee et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:1014–1020, 2015). It is reasoned that increased public awareness and perceived threat of climate change may pressure governments to enact policy to counteract climate change (e.g. setting stringent carbon emissions targets). Despite a logical link between public awareness and government-set emissions targets, this relationship remains untested. We examined the relationship between public awareness about and perceived threat of climate change and governmental emissions targets across 71 countries and 1 region. We found a positive association between the proportions of a country’s population that are aware of climate change and the unconditional emissions reduction targets set by that country in the Paris Agreement (Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, the proportion of people in a country who perceive climate change as a personal threat was not associated with higher emissions reduction targets. Our results suggest that public awareness may be an important part of garnering the public support required for policies designed to mitigate climate change to succeed.  相似文献   

Projecting impacts of carbon dioxide emission reductions in the US electric power sector: evidence from a data-rich approach     

Kyle E. Binder  James W. Mjelde 《Climatic change》2018,151(2):143-155

Conditional forecasts of US economic and energy sector activity are developed using information from a dynamic, data-rich environment. The forecasts are conditional on a path for carbon dioxide emissions outlined in the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) and are estimated based on a factor-augmented autoregressive framework. Results suggest that overall growth will be slower under the CPP than it would otherwise; however, economic growth and CO₂ reductions can be achieved simultaneously. There are little differences between unconditional (business-as-usual) and conditional forecasts of the variables in the early part of the forecast period; the impacts of the CPP are small while the constraints on carbon dioxide are less stringent. The results serve as a data-driven complement to structural analyses of policy change in the energy sector.  相似文献   

Atmospheric Precursors of and Response to Anomalous Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP5 Models     

Michael KELLEHER  James SCREEN 《大气科学进展》2018,35(1):27-37

This study examines pre-industrial control simulations from CMIP5 climate models in an effort to better understand the complex relationships between Arctic sea ice and the stratosphere, and between Arctic sea ice and cold winter temperatures over Eurasia. We present normalized regressions of Arctic sea-ice area against several atmospheric variables at extended lead and lag times. Statistically significant regressions are found at leads and lags, suggesting both atmospheric precursors of, and responses to, low sea ice; but generally, the regressions are stronger when the atmosphere leads sea ice, including a weaker polar stratospheric vortex indicated by positive polar cap height anomalies. Significant positive midlatitude eddy heat flux anomalies are also found to precede low sea ice. We argue that low sea ice and raised polar cap height are both a response to this enhanced midlatitude eddy heat flux. The so-called "warm Arctic, cold continents" anomaly pattern is present one to two months before low sea ice, but is absent in the months following low sea ice, suggesting that the Eurasian cooling and low sea ice are driven by similar processes. Lastly, our results suggest a dependence on the geographic region of low sea ice, with low Barents–Kara Sea ice correlated with a weakened polar stratospheric vortex, whilst low Sea of Okhotsk ice is correlated with a strengthened polar vortex. Overall, the results support a notion that the sea ice, polar stratospheric vortex and Eurasian surface temperatures collectively respond to large-scale changes in tropospheric circulation.  相似文献   

Tower-Based Greenhouse Gas Measurement Network Design——The National Institute of Standards and Technology North East Corridor Testbed     

Israel LOPEZ-COTO  Subhomoy GHOSH  Kuldeep PRASAD  James WHETSTONE 《大气科学进展》2017,34(9):1095-1105

The North–East Corridor(NEC) Testbed project is the 3rd of three NIST(National Institute of Standards and Technology) greenhouse gas emissions testbeds designed to advance greenhouse gas measurements capabilities. A design approach for a dense observing network combined with atmospheric inversion methodologies is described. The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model were used to derive the sensitivity of hypothetical observations to surface greenhouse gas emissions(footprints). Unlike other network design algorithms, an iterative selection algorithm, based on a k-means clustering method, was applied to minimize the similarities between the temporal response of each site and maximize sensitivity to the urban emissions contribution. Once a network was selected, a synthetic inversion Bayesian Kalman filter was used to evaluate observing system performance. We present the performances of various measurement network configurations consisting of differing numbers of towers and tower locations. Results show that an overly spatially compact network has decreased spatial coverage, as the spatial information added per site is then suboptimal as to cover the largest possible area, whilst networks dispersed too broadly lose capabilities of constraining flux uncertainties. In addition, we explore the possibility of using a very high density network of lower cost and performance sensors characterized by larger uncertainties and temporal drift. Analysis convergence is faster with a large number of observing locations, reducing the response time of the filter. Larger uncertainties in the observations implies lower values of uncertainty reduction. On the other hand, the drift is a bias in nature, which is added to the observations and,therefore, biasing the retrieved fluxes.  相似文献   

Anticipatory logics of the smart city’s global imaginary     

James Merricks White 《Urban geography》2016,37(4):572-589

The smart city encompasses a broad range of technological innovations which might be applied to any city for a wide variety of reasons. In this article, I make a distinction between local efforts to reshape the urban landscape, and a global smart city imaginary which those efforts draw upon and help sustain. While attention has been given to the malleability of the smart city concept at this global scale, there remains little effort to interrogate the way that the future is used to sanction specific solutions. Through a critical engagement with smart city marketing materials, industry documents, and consultancy reports, I explore how the future is recruited, rearranged, and represented as a rationalization for technological intervention in the present. This is performed amidst three recurring crises: massive demographic shifts and subsequent resource pressures, global climate change, and the conflicting demands of fiscal austerity that motivate the desire of so many cities to attract foreign direct investment and highly skilled workers. In revealing how crises are pre-empted, precautioned, and prepared for, I argue that the smart city imaginary normalizes a style and scale of response deemed appropriate under liberal capitalism.  相似文献   

Potential impact of ash eruptions on dairy farms from a study of the effects on a farm in eastern Bay of Plenty,New Zealand; implications for hazard mitigation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Thomas M. Wilson  James W. Cole 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(1):103-128

This paper investigates the impact ash fall would have on dairy farming, based on a study of ‘Tulachard’, a dairy farming operation at Rerewhakaaitu, North Island, New Zealand. It includes analysis of the potential effects on the dairy shed and milking machine, electrical supply and distribution, water supply and distribution, tractors and other farm vehicles, farm buildings (haysheds, pump sheds, implement sheds, etc.), milk-tanker access to the farm and critical needs of dairy cows and farm to keep milking. One of the most vulnerable areas identified in the study was the cooling of milk at the milking shed, pending dairy tanker pick-up. The cooling system’s condenser is exposed to the atmosphere and falling ash would make it highly vulnerable. Laboratory testing with wet and dry ash was conducted to determine its resilience to ash ingestion. It was found to perform satisfactorily during dry testing, but during wet testing significant clogging/blocking of the condenser’s radiator occurred, dramatically reducing airflow through the condenser. Specific mitigation recommendations have been developed that include cleaning with compressed air and adapting farm management techniques to lessen usage of the condenser during an ash-fall event. Specific recommendations for management of dairy farm operation are given to mitigate the effects of an ash-fall event.

James W. ColeEmail:

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Premature dismissal of high-redshift elliptical galaxies     

Raul Jimenez  Amancio C. S. Friaça  James S. Dunlop  Roberto J. Terlevich  John A. Peacock  Louisa A. Nolan 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,305(1):L16-L20

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Cosmic-ray positrons: are there primary sources?     

Stphane Coutu  Steven W. Barwick  James J. Beatty  Amit Bhattacharyya  Chuck R. Bower  Christopher J. Chaput  Georgia A. de Nolfo  Michael A. DuVernois  Allan Labrador  Shawn P. McKee  Dietrich Müller  James A. Musser  Scott L. Nutter  Eric Schneider  Simon P. Swordy  Gregory Tarl  Andrew D. Tomasch  Eric Torbet 《Astroparticle Physics》1999,11(4):208-435

Galactic cosmic rays consist of primary and secondary particles. Primary cosmic rays are thought to be energized by first order Fermi acceleration processes at supernova shock fronts within our Galaxy. The cosmic rays that eventually reach the Earth from this source are mainly protons and atomic nuclei, but also include electrons. Secondary cosmic rays are created in collisions of primary particles with the diffuse interstellar gas. They are relatively rare but carry important information on the Galactic propagation of the primary particles. The secondary component includes a small fraction of antimatter particles, positrons and antiprotons. In addition, positrons and antiprotons may also come from unusual sources and possibly provide insight into new physics. For instance, the annihilation of heavy supersymmetric dark matter particles within the Galactic halo could lead to positrons or antiprotons with distinctive energy signatures. With the High-Energy Antimatter Telescope (HEAT) balloon-borne instrument, we have measured the abundances of positrons and electrons at energies between 1 and 50 GeV. The data suggest that indeed a small additional antimatter component may be present that cannot be explained by a purely secondary production mechanism. Here we describe the signature of the effect and discuss its possible origin.  相似文献   

Warps and cosmic infall   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ing-Guey Jiang  James Binney 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,303(1):L7-L10

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