Conditional risk based on multivariate hazard scenarios   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mauro?Bernardi  Fabrizio?DuranteEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Piotr?Jaworski  Lea?Petrella  Gianfausto?Salvadori 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(1):203-211

We present a novel methodology to compute conditional risk measures when the conditioning event depends on a number of random variables. Specifically, given a random vector \((\mathbf {X},Y)\), we consider risk measures that express the risk of Y given that \(\mathbf {X}\) assumes values in an extreme multidimensional region. In particular, the considered risky regions are related to the AND, OR, Kendall and Survival Kendall hazard scenarios that are commonly used in environmental literature. Several closed formulas are considered (especially in the AND and OR scenarios). An application to spatial risk analysis involving real data is discussed.  相似文献   

An erosional origin for drumlins of NW Poland     

Piotr Hermanowski  Jan A. Piotrowski  Izabela Szuman 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(10):2030-2050

Drumlins are landforms essential to understanding of ice sheet movement over soft beds, sediment transport along the ice/bed interface, and the formation of a wide range of glacial deposits. Although investigated more than any other glacial landform, the origin of drumlins remains contentious. Using high-resolution LiDAR imagery and field data, we investigate the geomorphology and internal composition of one of the biggest drumlin fields in the North European Lowland. The Stargard drumlin field consists of over 1300 drumlins and related streamlined subglacial bedforms in a terminal part of a major Weichselian palaeo-ice stream of the southern Scandinavian Ice Sheet. The drumlins are typically 600-800 m long, 200-250 m wide, 3-6 m high and have axial elongation ratios ~2 but in some cases exceeding 15. Several subzones inferred from drumlin morphometry exist reflecting different ice flow dynamics. The most elongated drumlins occur in areas where ice moved down-slope and where thick fine-grained deposits of low hydraulic conductivity occur in the substratum. The largest portion of land occupied by drumlins and the greatest frequency density of drumlins occur where the ice moved up-slope. Stargard drumlins are composed of a wide variety of glacial deposits including various types of tills and meltwater sediments, which range from undisturbed to heavily deformed. There is no correlation between the deposits in the drumlins and the drumlin forms indicating that the deposits pre-date the drumlinizing process. It is suggested that the drumlin field was generated by a combination of direct glacial erosion and subglacial meltwater erosion by removing antecedent material from the inter-drumlin areas and streamlining the resultant bumps. Our data support the search for a unifying theory of drumlin formation and suggest erosion as the most plausible single mechanism generating drumlin landscapes. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Lidar and the mobile Scene Modeler (mSM) as scientific tools for planetary exploration     

Gordon R. Osinski  Timothy D. Barfoot  Matt Izawa  Piotr Jasiobedzki  Robert Richards  Haley Sapers  Roberta Flemming 《Planetary and Space Science》2010,58(4):691-700

With the continued success of the Mars Exploration Rovers and the return of humans to the Moon within the next decade, a considerable amount of research is being done on the technologies required to provide surface mobility and the tools required to provide scientific capability. Here, we explore the utility of lidar and the mobile Scene Modeler (mSM) - which is based on a stereo camera system - as scientific tools. Both of these technologies have been, or are being considered for, technological applications such as autonomous satellite rendezvous and rover navigation. We carried out a series of field tests at the 23 km diameter, 39 Ma, Haughton impact structure located on Devon Island in the Canadian Arctic. Several sites of geological interest were investigated, including polygonal terrain, gullies and channels, slump/collapse features, impact melt breccia hills, and a site of impact-associated hydrothermal mineralization. These field tests show that lidar and mSM provide a superior visual record of the terrain, from the regional (km) to outcrop (m to cm) scale and in 3-D, as compared to standard digital photography. Thus, a key strength of these technologies is in situ reconnaissance and documentation. Lidar scans also provide a wealth of geometric and structural information about a site, accomplishing the equivalent of weeks to months of manual surveying and with much greater accuracy than traditional tools, making this extremely useful for planetary exploration missions. An unexpected result of these field tests is the potential for lidar and mSM to provide qualitative, and potentially quantitative, composition information about a site. Given the high probability of lidar and mSM being used on future lunar missions, we suggest that it would be beneficial to further investigate the potential for these technologies to be used as science tools.  相似文献   

Study of litter influence on magnetic susceptibility measurements of urban forest topsoils using the MS2D sensor   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jarosław Zawadzki  Piotr Fabijańczyk  Tadeusz Magiera  Zygmunt Strzyszcz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,61(2):223-230

Field magnetometry is fast and convenient method used to detect areas contaminated by technogenic magnetic particles and potentially polluted with heavy metals. Frequently, measurements of soil magnetic susceptibility (κ) are carried out with MS2D Bartington sensor, which penetration range equals 10 cm, although 90% of the total signal is detected from a depth of up to 6 cm. Thick uppermost organic soil layers may significantly influence on the measured κ because the penetration range may be not large enough to cover the layers where the most of anthropogenic contaminants are cumulated. The aim of the study was to investigate on how the removal of the litter improves the MS2D measurements of soil pollution. Accordingly, the correlations between κ values measured on the successively removed overlying soil sub-horizons were investigated. Measurements were performed at 15 sites located in different forest in the Upper Silesian Industrial Area, Poland. The results showed that the litter removal enabled the MS2D to measure the κ more related to the anthropogenic pollution, and did not affect the measuring variance.  相似文献   

2-Gyr Simulation of the Oort-cloud Formation II. A Close View of the Inner Oort cloud after the First Two Giga-years     

Giuseppe Leto  Marián Jakubík  Tomáš Paulech  Luboš Neslušan  Piotr A. Dybczyński 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2009,105(2-4):263-266

We simulate the formation of the Oort cloud (OC) till the age of 2 Gyr starting from an initial disc of planetesimals made by 10 038 test particles. The results on the outer part of the distant comet reservoir are reported by Neslu?an et al. (this issue). Here we deal with the evolution of the population and structure at 2 Gyr of the complementary inner part of the Oort cloud. The dynamical evolution of the massless test particles was followed via the numerical integration of their orbits. We considered the perturbations produced by four giant planets assuming they have their current orbits and masses, as well as the perturbations caused by the Galactic tide and passing stars. The efficiency of the formation of inner OC is found to be very low: only about 1.1% of all considered particles ended in this part of the OC. At 2 Gyr, the dynamics of the inner cloud is mainly governed by the dominant z-term of the Galactic tide. The number density of the bodies is proportional to the heliocentric distance, r, as r ^?3.53. The directional distribution of orbits is still strongly inhomogeneous. There are large empty regions in the space angles around the Galactic Equator points with the galactic longitude 90 and 270° (non-rotating frame), or there are only few bodies having the ecliptical latitude higher than +60° or lower than 60°. A strong concentration of objects at the Ecliptic is apparent up to ≈1,000 AU, with a possible—but still not proved—extension to ≈1,500 AU. Beyond r ≈ 6,000 AU, bodies directly above and below the Sun, with respect to the Ecliptic, are absent.  相似文献   

A New Subfamily of Aphids (Hemiptera,Aphidomorpha) from the Early Cretaceous Lebanese Amber with a Description of the Oldest Apterous Morphs   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Piotr Wegierek  and David A. Grimaldi 《《地质学报》英文版》2010,84(4):665-672

<正>Aphids are marked by their high polymorphism,but species reported from the Early Cretaceous are known only from alate morphs.The discovery of an apterous adult morph in Lebanese amber and a larva of the same species are very important for the understanding of both the morphological and biological evolution of this insect group at the very early stage of development.Gondvanoaphis estephani new subfamily,new genus and species of the recent aphids family Thelaxidae is described.The characters of the new genus in respect to other genera placed in Thelaxidae are reviewed.The palaeoecological and palaeogeographical data concerning Gondvanoaphis new genus are also discussed.  相似文献   

Searching for the Parent of the Tunguska Cosmic Body     

Tadeusz Jan Jopek  Christiane Froeschlé  Robert Gonczi  Piotr A. Dybczyński 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2008,102(1-4):53-58

We present the results of an extensive study of the Tunguska Cosmic Body (TCB) origin on dynamical grounds. To identify the TCB parent, or a plausible candidate, we applied the well-known concept of dynamical similarity whereby we have compared the geocentric and heliocentric dynamical parameters of a selected set of the Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and TCB particles. First, we made use the idea of Kresak by comparing geocentric coordinates of the TCB radiant with those of the NEOs. Second, we studied the long-term dynamical evolution of all NEOs and TCB particles searching for similarities between their heliocentric orbits. As a general result, we observed many more similar cases and a different pattern of the high orbital similarity among the TCB particles and the asteroid orbits than we did for comets.  相似文献   

Geology,stratigraphy and palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Stephanorhinus kirchbergensis-bearing Quaternary palaeolake(s) of Gorzów Wielkopolski (NW Poland,Central Europe)     

Artur Sobczyk  Ryszard K. Borówka  Janusz Badura  Renata Stachowicz-Rybka  Julita Tomkowiak  Anna Hrynowiecka  Joanna Sławińska  Michał Tomczak  Mateusz Pitura  Mariusz Lamentowicz  Piotr Kołaczek  Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek  Dariusz Tarnawski  Marcin Kadej  Piotr Moska  Marek Krąpiec  Krzysztof Stachowicz  Bartosz Bieniek  Krzysztof Siedlik  Małgorzata Bąk  Jan van der Made  Adam Kotowski  Krzysztof Stefaniak 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(4):539-558

The sedimentary succession exposed in the Gorzów Wielkopolski area includes Eemian Interglacial (MIS 5e) or Early Weichselian (MIS 5d–e) deposits. The sedimentary sequence has been the object of intense interdisciplinary study, which has resulted in the identification of at least two palaeolake horizons. Both yielded fossil remains of large mammals, alongside pollen and plant macrofossils. All these proxies have been used to reconstruct the environmental conditions prevailing at the time of deposition, as well as to define the geological context and the biochronological position of the fauna. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of the glaciofluvial layers of the GS3 succession to 123.6 ± 10.1 (below the lower palaeolake) and 72.0 ± 5.2 ka (above the upper palaeolake) indicate that the site formed during the Middle–Late Pleistocene (MIS 6 – MIS 5). Radiocarbon-dating of the lacustrine organic matter revealed a tight cluster of Middle Pleniglacial Period (MIS 3) ages in the range of ~41–32 ka cal bp (Hengelo – Denekamp Interstadials). Holocene organic layers have also been found, with ¹⁴C ages within a range of 4330–4280 cal bp (Neolithic). Pollen and plant macrofossil records, together with sedimentological and geochemical data, confirm the dating to the Eemian Interglacial.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of subglacial depositional conditions based on the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility: an example from Dębe (central Poland)     

Artur Teodorski  Jan Dzierżek  Piotr Ziółkowski 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(3):391-402

The analysis of low-field anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) was used to reconstruct the subglacial deposition conditions during the Main Stadial of the Odranian Glaciation (MIS 6) in till deposits from a site in Dębe (central Poland). Based on the AMS parameters, six till beds were identified (intervals 1–6). The declination of the maximum magnetic susceptibility axis (k₁) indicates that the ice sheet was moving in from the northwest. The obtained results confirm the thesis about the preferred direction of ice-sheet transgression during the Odranian Glaciation (MIS 6) in this part of Poland. This interpretation is also confirmed by data obtained from measurements of the long axis of clasts, which agree with the orientation of k₁. Based on the AMS results, a significant part of the profile was deformed through simple shear and direct interaction of the ice sheet with the underlying sediment (beds 2–5). The lowest part of the till (bed 6) may have been deposited on a southeast-trending slope or post-depositional deformed by uneven loading of the ice cover. The upper part of the profile (especially in interval 1) could be deposited with an impact of pore water.  相似文献   

Fen ecosystem responses to water‐level fluctuations during the early and middle Holocene in central Europe: a case study from Wilczków,Poland          下载免费PDF全文

Mateusz Płóciennik  Andrzej Kruk  Jacek Forysiak  Dominik Pawłowski  Kamila Mianowicz  Scott Elias  Ryszard K. Borówka  Marek Kloss  Milena Obremska  Marek Krąpiec  Piotr Kittel  Sławomir Żurek 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(4):721-740

This paper presents a palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of the Wilczków fen (central Poland). The fen developed in an inactive valley at the onset of the Holocene (~11 ka BP) and peat accumulation lasted until 5.7 ka BP. Multi‐proxy reconstructions were made on the basis of palaeobotanical, cladoceran, chironomid, beetle and geochemical analyses. A Kohonen self‐organizing map (SOM, unsupervised artificial neural network) of the biotic sequence distinguished four stages of fen history. Stage X₁ (11.0–10.7 ka BP) was relatively wet and cool. Organic matter started to accumulate but the habitat conditions remained unstable. Moss, sedge and fern communities then developed. Sedimentary changes reveal an intensive groundwater supply at that time. Numerous and diverse chironomid and cladoceran subfossils indicate nearly permanent aquatic conditions. During stage Y₁ (10.6–9.2 ka BP) conditions were dry and the upper peat layer desiccated. Cladocera nearly disappeared whereas chironomids were represented by semi‐terrestrial and predatory (Tanypodinae) species. Conditions started to be more reducing. All the remaining samples belonged to the interweaving stages X₂ and Y₂. Stage Y₂ (mostly 9.1–7.3 and 6.0–5.7 ka BP) was also dry but humidity increased towards the top. Oxidizing conditions occurred and the pH became more alkaline, favouring Cladium mariscus. The basin received mostly allochthonous matter input at that time. Stage X₂ (mostly 6.8–6.1 ka BP) was humid and warm. The groundwater supply remained low but there was an increase in precipitation, changing local conditions to ombrotrophic. Species‐rich chironomid and cladoceran communities were associated with temporary pools. Finally, conditions returned to those characteristic of stage Y₂. The presented reconstruction documents long‐term abiotic and biotic changes determined by water supply, including groundwater outflow, which have rarely been detected at a multi‐proxy scale. We show that inactivated valley fens are sensitive to climate‐driven hydrological fluctuations. Kohonen neural networks appear to be a promising method for analysing variability in multi‐proxy data.  相似文献