过去2000a中国东部冬半年温度变幅与周期     

葛全胜  郑景云  刘健 《气候变化研究进展》2007,3(Z1):26-30

The amplitude and rhythm of temperature changes at inter-decadal and inter-centennial timescale were studied, based on the winter-half year temperature change series reconstructed from historical phenological events in eastern China for the past 2000 years, together with the temperature change simulation from ECHO-G model for the past 1000 years, and the quasi-periods of temperature fluctuation were discussed by using wavelet analysis. The results indicate: 1) the maximal amplitude of winter half-year temperature change in eastern China at decadal and centennial scale, was above 2℃ and 0.5-1.0℃ respectively. The reconstructed result indicates that the amplitude of warming during the 20th century was identical with the maximum amplitude before the 20th century in eastern China, but the simulated result suggests that the amplitude of warming has exceeded the maximum amplitude. 2) The rhythms of temperature change at centennial to millennial scale in eastern China were about 100-year, 250-year, 400-year, 600-year and 1000-year. The 20th century, the 1st-3rd century and the 9th-13th century were warm peaks at inter-centennial scale as well as at millennial scale. It is implicated that the warming during the 20th century should be attributed to not only anthropogenic effect, but also natural climate variation.  相似文献   

Prolonged dry episodes over Northeast China during the period 1961–2012     

Qinqin Kong  Quansheng Ge  Jingyun Zheng  Jianchao Xi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,122(3-4):711-719

  相似文献   

The Response of First Flowering Dates to Abrupt Climate Change in Beijing   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

BAI Jie  GE Quansheng  DAI Junhu 《大气科学进展》2011,28(3):564-572

Phenological data on the First Flowering Date(FFD) of woody plants in Beijing from 1963-2007 are analyzed.The correlation between each species’ yearly FFD and the mean monthly temperatures for every year over a 45-year period is used to identify the month in which temperature has the most effect on FFD. Through further analysis,the FFDs of 48 woody plant species are shown to have advanced an average of 5.4 days from 1990-2007 compared to 1963-1989.The results indicate that 70.8%of species flowered significantly earlier(7 days on average) during the period 1990-2007,while only one species(2.1%) flowered significantly later.Moreover,the responses of FFD to climate change are shown to be different in two climatic stages, defined by an abrupt climate change point.Thirty-three species which first flower in March and April are sensitive to temperature are examined.The correlation coefficients between FFD and temperature for 20 species during the latter period(1990-2007) are shown to be larger than during the former period(1963- 1989),with a difference of around -0.87 days per 1℃on average.The paper concludes that with the warming of climate,the linear trend of FFD variation,as well as its responsiveness to temperature,became more prominent during 1990-2007 than 1963-1989.The data analyzed in this study present a strong biological indicator of climate change in Beijing,and provide further confirmation of previous results from regional and local studies across the Northern Hemisphere.Phenophase variations indicate that the climate is changing rapidly.  相似文献   

区域农业干旱风险评估研究--以中国西南地区为例   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8  

徐新创  葛全胜  郑景云  戴尔阜  刘成武 《地理科学进展》2011,30(7):883-890

农业干旱风险评估有助于提升区域灾害风险管理和决策水平,减轻干旱灾害造成的损失。利用历史降水资料、灾情数据和社会经济数据,本文以地级市为评估单元,以各评估单元3种播种面积最大的农作物为评价对象,在发展和完善现有连续无雨日干旱评估指标的基础上,结合作物不同生长阶段对干旱反应的差异,设计了一套农业作物干旱等级判定及其概率研究方法,同时,提出评估单元不同作物干旱等级损失率的计算方法,构建了农业干旱风险损失评估的计算模型。本文以西南区为案例区进行了农业干旱风险评估,结果发现：①采用研究方法求算的各评估单元风险损失结果能有效地表达各评估单元之间的农业干旱风险差异;②根据计算的农业干旱风险指数划分的风险区能比较准确地反映案例区内农业干旱风险的空间分布规律;③西南区农业干旱高度和重度风险区主要分布在该区西部和北部的一些高原、山地之中,而轻度和中度风险区则主要分布在其东部、中部和南部地区。  相似文献   

Buried paleo-channel system and records of sea level changes on the continental shelf in Yingge Sea Basin     

Li Fan  Zhuang Jiezao  Yu Jianjun  Du Quansheng  Dong Tailu  Jiang Xiuhang 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1990,8(3):240-248

High resolution geophysical instruments were used to locate many buried paleo-channels, paleo-lakes, and river mouth paleo-deltas formed during low sea level at the end of Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Some paleo-rivers flowed southward into the paleo-lake and others southeastward into the Paleo-South China Sea. It may be inferred from data on buried paleo-channels that sea level remained for some time at the −50m (longest time here), −100m, and −130 to −140 m (lowest level) water depths, and that corresponding paleo-coastlines were formed at the respective depths.  相似文献   

Hydrochemical Dynamic Characteristics and Evolution of Underground Brine in the Mahai Salt Lake of the Qaidam Basin Qinghai-Tibet Plateau   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

HU Shuy  ZHAO Quansheng  WANG Guangcai  ZHANG Jianwei  FENG Juan 《《地质学报》英文版》2018,92(5):1981-1990

The mineral rock salts present in the Mahai Salt Lake of the Qaidam basin exhibit high solubilities in water. In addition, the multicomponent underground brine exhibits a high salinity and is easily precipitated. In the natural state, brine transport in the brine layer is extremely slow, and the brine is in a relatively stable chemical equilibrium state with the rock salt media. However, during mining, both the seepage and the chemical fields fluctuate significantly, thereby disrupting the equilibrium and leading to variations in the chemical composition and dynamic characteristics of the brine. Therefore, we selected underground brine from the Mahai Salt Lake, collecting a total of 183 brine samples over three stages of mining (i.e., the early stage of underground brine extraction, the initial stage of mining, and the later stage of mining). Using a range of analytical techniques, the chemical dynamics of the underground brine water and its evolution were systematically studied. We found that evaporation and enrichment were the main mechanisms of underground brine evolution in the Mahai Salt Lake, with cation exchange and mineral dissolution/precipitation being key factors in determining the dynamic characteristics and evolution of the brine.  相似文献   

过去2000年亚洲气候变化(PAGES-Asia2k)集成研究进展及展望   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

葛全胜  郑景云  郝志新 《地理学报》2015,70(3)

介绍了国际过去全球变化研究计划(PAGES)过去2000年气候变化研究网络的设立背景、研究目的及亚洲在其中的独特性;总结了过去2000年亚洲气候变化(PAGES-Asia2k)集成研究的主要进展及中国的贡献,分析了当前在亚洲区域开展该项研究的主要问题及难点,并对未来研究进行了展望。亚洲历史悠久,高分辨率的代用资料丰富,是开展过去2000年气候变化研究的理想区域,但目前尚处于起步阶段。已有进展表明:在过去1200年中,亚洲830-1220年相对温暖,1340-1880年明显寒冷,20世纪则快速增暖;但亚洲气候类型多、变化过程复杂、区域差异大。因此,发展气候序列重建的新技术方法,提高重建序列的时、空分辨率、空间覆盖度和重建结果的精度,建立亚洲过去2000年气候代用资料数据库,集成重建过去2000年区域温度变化序列及干湿变化空间型,进而开展区域气候变化驱动机制与气候变化影响及适应研究,是该计划下一步的研究重点。  相似文献   

气候变化影响下北海公园冰上运动季的特征与情景模拟     

刘浩龙  周宇  刘俊  戴君虎  葛全胜  齐晓波 《地理学报》2022,77(1):35-50

北海公园冰上运动是北京传统体育文化遗产的重要组成内容以及冬季休闲旅游的代表性符号,强化其气候变化影响与适应研究,对于应对全球变化的挑战、践行“大力发展冰雪经济”的指示具有重要意义。本文从多源文献中提取分析了其冰场多年启闭日期（间接指示冰层厚15 cm）的变化特征,并结合气温器测数据以及4种气候情景数据（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）,利用留一交叉验证法探讨了不同温度指标和拟合方程的预测效果差异,进而对未来冰上运动季的变化、潜在影响与适应对策进行分析。结果表明：① 1989—2018年冰上运动季始日、末日和持续长度的均值分别为1月1日、2月5日和36 d,对应的趋势表现为不显著的推迟（1.00 d/10a）、提前（-0.77 d/10a）和延长（1.11 d/10a）,时序变化可区分为1989—2000年、2001—2013年和2014—2018年3个阶段。② 冰上运动季始、末日分别对其日期前59 d的日最低温和前94 d的日最高温有较好响应,利用这两个指标和玻尔兹曼函数可更好预测冰上运动季变化。③ 2021—2099年冰上运动季始日、末日和持续长度的均值分别较1989—2018年晚1 d、早1 d和缩短2 d,3个指标变幅一致缩小,对应的0.14 d/10a、-0.21 d/10a和-0.34 d/10a的趋势均达到0.01的显著性水平。④ 未来79 a内冬季两大节庆中元旦冰上运动的适宜性要大于春节,其中春节的适宜性在4种气候情景下相差不大,而元旦的适宜性则在4种情景下有一定差别。⑤ 在相关预估结果上,BCC-CSM2-MR、CanESM-5和UKESM这3种区域气候模式并没有太大差异,而热岛效应影响尚待深入研究。⑥ 为了在气候变暖背景下促进体旅融合消费、保障冰上运动产业高质量发展,运营企业应采取强化游客安全保障、扩展旅游产品谱系、购买冰量保险等全方位主动适应措施,研究者应加强研究气候变化影响的复杂性、改进旅游流的预测效果,而管理部门应大力推动产业风险管理报告的编制,充分重视气候变化风险的动态评估。  相似文献   

气象干旱对中亚棉花产量的影响     

徐杨  李秀芬  葛全胜  郝志新 《地理学报》2022,77(9):2338-2352

极端干旱事件频发对中亚棉花生产具有重要影响。本文利用乌兹别克斯坦赞格阿塔实验站棉花大田试验数据评估了APSIM-Cotton模型的适用性,根据CMIP6气候模式模拟的SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5等3种共享社会经济路径下的气候变化数据集,分析了2021—2090年SPEI-3干旱指数的变化特征,进而利用APSIM-Cotton模型模拟了考虑CO₂肥效作用的气象干旱对棉花产量的影响。结果表明：APSIM-Cotton模型能够准确模拟乌兹别克斯坦塔什干地区的生育期和产量变化趋势;未来塔什干地区呈现温度明显升高、干旱发生频率明显增加的特征;气象干旱将导致棉花产量下降,SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5等3种排放情景下,严重气象干旱导致2021—2050年棉花产量较1961—1990年分别下降28.0%、29.6%和32.1%,2061—2090年棉花分别减产31.5%、33.1%和35.7%,在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,极端气象干旱导致2061—2090年棉花产量分别下降41.3%和54.2%;CO₂浓度升高可提高棉花产量,贡献率为14.9%~25.0%,但浓度达到750 µmol/mol以上时,棉花增产幅度将不再持续增加。  相似文献   

华北平原玉米播种期和品种变化对冠层温度的影响及地表生物物理机理     

刘凤山  葛全胜  陶福禄  蔡杨星  卜建超  白妮妮 《地理科学进展》2022,41(4):682-692

通过改变陆—气界面的地表水热交换,农田管理变化是气候变化的重要反馈过程之一。华北平原玉米的播种期和有效积温发生了规律性变化,改变了叶面积指数(LAI)、地表反照率(α)、净辐射(R_n)、潜热(LH)和冠层温度(T_c)等,成为区域气候变化的重要反馈过程。论文利用SiBcrop模型模拟3种玉米情景(春玉米、夏玉米、潜在玉米)下的LAI、α、R_n、LH和T_c的季节动态。结果表明,春玉米具有早播种、早收获、早LAI峰值的特征;夏玉米具有晚播种、晚收获、晚LAI峰值的特征;潜在玉米具有早播种、晚收获、高LAI的特征。模拟情景之间LAI差异为±2.5 m²·m^-2;T_c差异为±0.5 ℃。地表反照率(α)和地表能量分配是决定情景之间T_c差异的决定因素,播种期推迟,以α升高的降温效应为主;有效积温增加,以LH分配增多的降温效应为主。春玉米具有最高的冠层温度,夏玉米和潜在玉米的冠层温度较低且差异很小。研究结果对于促进农田土地管理变化适应和缓解区域气候变化具有一定意义。  相似文献