震前电离层TEC异常探测新方法   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

张小红  任晓东  吴风波  陈玉阳 《地球物理学报》2013,56(2):441-449

本文提出一种利用时间序列法(ARIMA模型)进行震前电离层异常探测的新方法.首先,对比分析了该方法与传统探测方法(四分位距法、滑动时窗法)预测TEC背景值的精度.结果表明,时间序列法预测背景值的精度要明显高于传统方法,且预报背景值的平均偏差要比传统方法小2倍左右,说明传统探测方法预测的背景值具有较大系统偏差.为更准确地探测震前电离层扰动,除了得到准确的参考背景值,还需得到更加合理的探测限值,由此本文提出一种更为合理的限差确定策略.最后,以2012年1月10日苏门答腊岛7.2级地震为例,利用该方法分析了其震前电离层的异常扰动情况,并验证了该方法的有效性,实验结果表明:在震前第13天、第8~9天、第1~2天和地震当天电离层均会发生较为明显的异常.而且,其正异常(观测值高于正常值)一般发生在震中以北,距发震时间相对较远;负异常(观测值低于正常值)则在震中各方向均会出现,且距发震时间较近.同时,通过对异常结果分时段统计,发现在发震时刻前,距发震时刻越近的时段发生异常的频率越高,此规律将会对未来更为准确的预报发震时段提供重要参考.  相似文献   

基于InSAR识别的黄土高原活动性地质灾害发育规律分析     

姚闯闯  姚鑫  顾畛逵  任开瑀  周振凯 《地质力学学报》2022,28(2):257-267

地震、 降雨、 人类工程活动诱发的活动性地质灾害在黄土高原频现,但由于其地域广阔、 构造活跃、 地貌类型多样、 各地黄土特性差异较大,一直以来缺乏活动性地质灾害发育分布的系统认识.InSAR技术具有大范围观测地表变形的能力,文章利用2019年1月1日至2020年3月31日期间40期Sentinal-1 SAR数据,计算...  相似文献   

国产机载LiDAR安置角误差检校初探   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

成枢  张艳亭  马浩  任国庆  黄刚 《测绘通报》2013,(1):37-40

机载LiDAR的对地定位的误差来源包括单机误差和集成误差.结合试验数据对集成误差中的最大误差源安置角误差检校进行探讨,从安置角误差检校的原理、方法到整个系统精度评定,得出国产机载激光雷达对地定位的相对精度.  相似文献   

LiDAR数据提取等高线的方法研究     

李鸿轶  任淑娟  雷蕾 《测绘通报》2013,(6):59-60

介绍LiDAR系统的特点,以及用高精度LiDAR数据提取等高线的方法,并在生产中通过大面积提取等高线进行验证。  相似文献   

面向网络环境的地理空间数据数字水印模型     

符浩军  朱长青  赵毅  任娜 《测绘学报》2013,(6):891-897

从网络环境下地理空间数据分发、使用的安全性角度出发,结合数据加密思想,顾及网络环境中地理空间数据特性,构建了一种面向网络环境的地理空间数据数字水印模型。在此模型基础上,考虑到网络环境中地理数据来源的多样性,建立了水印算法库,对地理数据本身进行数字水印的嵌入。同时,提出一种基于数据包的数字水印算法,算法将水印信息通过映射函数以量化方式嵌入网络传输中的数据包中。试验表明,作为一种面向网络环境的数字水印模型,较好地解决了网络环境下地理空间数据的使用权限控制、版权保护、跟踪管理等问题。  相似文献   

GIS空间关系在北京市水务普查中的应用     

张伟松  任海英 《北京测绘》2013,(4):30-34

在北京市第一次水务普查工作中,水务空间数据处理是一项非常重要的工作,而水务对象间的空间关系的正确性是水务空间数据处理成功的重要指标之一。本文分析了北京市水务普查空间数据处理中的空间对象间存在的GIS空间关系,然后详细阐述了基于GIS空间关系的水务空间数据处理方法,最后对水务普查空间成果在应急保障和水务精细化信息管理中的应用进行了展望。  相似文献   

GLON ASS 系统可用性进展     

戴鑫  任超  王睿 《全球定位系统》2013,(6):95-98

介绍了GLONASS系统现代化的进展,从卫星可见性和位置精度因子两方面探讨了其可用性。通过中国境内不同纬度IGS 站实测数据分析,表明了大多数时间内可观测GLONASS卫星超过了4颗。目前,GLONASS在全球范围内位置精度因子较小,星座分布也较合理,在经历现代化进程后,其可用性已有了大幅提高。  相似文献   

刚性连接的POS与相机集成系统集成检校试验精度分析     

任国庆  关艳玲  张艳亭  黄刚 《测绘科学》2013,38(4):119-121

本文把国产POS和国产相机进行刚性连接,将系统误差检校参数用于修正随后的不同区域的POS观测值,利用由此得到的POS外方位元素结合航空影像进行直接地理定位,结果证明该方法用于直接测图是满足精度要求的。  相似文献   

Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China     

秦思  贾莉  丁晨晨  任福民  约翰·L·麦克布莱  李国平 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(3):286-296

The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model.  相似文献   

Experiments with the Improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China     

马蕴琦  任福民  贾莉  丁晨晨 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(2):139-153

In recent work, three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) have been introduced, namely, tropical cyclone (TC) track, TC landfall season, and TC intensity. In the present study, we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added. Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004-2018. The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track, TC landfall season, and intensity (DSAEF_LTP-1). The other three experiments were based on the first experiment, but with new ensemble forecast schemes added (DSAEF_LTP-2), new similarity regions added (DSAEF_LTP-3), and both added (DSAEF_LTP- 4), respectively. Results showed that, after new similarity regions added into the model (DSAEF_LTP-3), the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥250 mm and ≥100 mm) improved, and the sum of the threat score (TS250 + TS100) increased by 4.44%. Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1, the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously (DSAEF_LTP-4), with the TS increasing by 25.36%. Moreover, the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models, and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall. Finally, some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.  相似文献