Evaluation of Weights of Evidence to Predict Epithermal-Gold Deposits in the Great Basin of the Western United States   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Raines  Gary L. 《Natural Resources Research》1999,8(4):257-276

The weights-of-evidence method provides a simple approach to the integration of diverse geologic information. The application addressed is to construct a model that predicts the locations of epithermal-gold mineral deposits in the Great Basin of the western United States. Weights of evidence is a data-driven method requiring known deposits and occurrences that are used as training sites in the evaluated area. Four hundred and fifteen known hot spring gold–silver, Comstock vein, hot spring mercury, epithermal manganese, and volcanogenic uranium deposits and occurrences in Nevada were used to define an area of 327.4 km² as training sites to develop the model. The model consists of nine weighted-map patterns that are combined to produce a favorability map predicting the distribution of epithermal-gold deposits. Using a measure of the association of training sites with predictor features (or patterns), the patterns can be ranked from best to worst predictors. Based on proximity analysis, the strongest predictor is the area within 8 km of volcanic rocks younger than 43 Ma. Being close to volcanic rocks is not highly weighted, but being far from volcanic rocks causes a strong negative weight. These weights suggest that proximity to volcanic rocks define where deposits do not occur. The second best pattern is the area within 1 km of hydrothermally altered areas. The next best pattern is the area within 1 km of known placer-gold sites. The proximity analysis for gold placers weights this pattern as useful when close to known placer sites, but unimportant where placers do not exist. The remaining patterns are significantly weaker predictors. In order of decreasing correlation, they are: proximity to volcanic vents, proximity to east-west to northwest faults, elevated airborne radiometric uranium, proximity to northwest to west and north-northwest linear features, elevated aeromagnetics, and anomalous geochemistry. This ordering of the patterns is a function of the quality, applicability, and use of the data. The nine-pattern favorability map can be evaluated by comparison with the USGS National Assessment for hot spring gold–silver deposits. The Spearman's ranked correlation coefficient between the favorability and the National Assessment permissive tracts is 0.5. Tabulations of the areas of agreement and disagreement between the two maps show 74% agreement for the Great Basin. The posterior probabilities for 51 significant deposits in the Great Basin, both used and not used in the model, show the following: 26 classified as favorable; 25 classified as permissive; and 1, Florida Canyon, classified as nonpermissive.The Florida Canyon deposit has a low favorability because there are no volcanic rocks near the deposit on the Nevada geologic map used. The largest areas of disagreement are caused by the USGS National Assessment team concluding that volcanic rocks older than 27 Ma in Nevada are not permissive, which was not assumed in this model. The weights-of-evidence model is evaluated as reasonable and delineates permissive areas for epithermal deposits comparable to expert's delineation. The weights-of-evidence model has the additional characteristics that it is well defined, reproducible, objective, and provides a quantitative measure of confidence.  相似文献   

MESSENGER observations of the plasma environment near Mercury     

Jim M. Raines  James A. Slavin  Thomas H. Zurbuchen  George Gloeckler  Brian J. Anderson  Daniel N. Baker  Haje Korth  Stamatios M. Krimigis  Ralph L. McNutt Jr 《Planetary and Space Science》2011,59(15):2004-2015

The MESSENGER Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer (FIPS) measured the bulk plasma characteristics of Mercury's magnetosphere and solar wind environment during the spacecraft's first two flybys of the planet on 14 January 2008 (M1) and 6 October 2008 (M2), producing the first measurements of thermal ions in Mercury's magnetosphere. In this work, we identify major features of the Mercury magnetosphere in the FIPS proton data and describe the data analysis process used for recovery of proton density (n_p) and temperature (T_p) with a forward modeling technique, required because of limitations in measurement geometry. We focus on three regions where the magnetospheric flow speed is likely to be low and meets our criteria for the recovery process: the M1 plasma sheet and the M1 and M2 dayside and nightside boundary-layer regions. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions were substantially different between the two flybys, with intense reconnection signatures observed by the Magnetometer during M2 versus a relatively quiet magnetosphere during M1. The recovered ion density and temperature values for the M1 quiet-time plasma sheet yielded n_p∼1–10 cm⁻³, T_p∼2×10⁶ K, and plasma β∼2. The nightside boundary-layer proton densities during M1 and M2 were similar, at n_p∼4–5 cm⁻³, but the temperature during M1 (T_p∼4–8×10⁶ K) was 50% less than during M2 (T_p∼8×10⁶ K), presumably due to reconnection in the tail. The dayside boundary layer observed during M1 had a density of ∼16 cm⁻³ and temperature of 2×10⁶ K, whereas during M2 this region was less dense and hotter (n_p∼8 cm⁻³ and T_p∼10×10⁶ K), again, most likely due to magnetopause reconnection. Overall, the southward interplanetary magnetic field during M2 clearly produced higher T_p in the dayside and nightside magnetosphere, as well as higher plasma β in the nightside boundary, ∼20 during M2 compared with ∼2 during M1. The proton plasma pressure accounts for only a fraction (24% for M1 and 64% for M2) of the drop in magnetic pressure upon entry into the dayside boundary layer. This result suggests that heavy ions of planetary origin, not considered in this analysis, may provide the “missing” pressure. If these planetary ions were hot due to “pickup” in the magnetosheath, the required density for pressure balance would be an ion density of ∼1 cm⁻³ for an ion temperature of ∼10⁸ K.  相似文献   

The space environment of Mercury at the times of the second and third MESSENGER flybys     

Daniel N. Baker  Dusan Odstrcil  Brian J. Anderson  C. Nick Arge  Mehdi Benna  George Gloeckler  Haje Korth  Leslie R. Mayer  Jim M. Raines  David Schriver  James A. Slavin  Sean C. Solomon  Pavel M. Trávní?ek  Thomas H. Zurbuchen 《Planetary and Space Science》2011,59(15):2066-2074

The second and third flybys of Mercury by the MESSENGER spacecraft occurred, respectively, on 6 October 2008 and on 29 September 2009. In order to provide contextual information about the solar wind properties and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near the planet at those times, we have used an empirical modeling technique combined with a numerical physics-based solar wind model. The Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) method uses solar photospheric magnetic field observations (from Earth-based instruments) in order to estimate the inner heliospheric radial flow speed and radial magnetic field out to 21.5 solar radii from the Sun. This information is then used as input to the global numerical magnetohydrodynamic model, ENLIL, which calculates solar wind velocity, density, temperature, and magnetic field strength and polarity throughout the inner heliosphere. WSA-ENLIL calculations are presented for the several-week period encompassing the second and third flybys. This information, in conjunction with available MESSENGER data, aid in understanding the Mercury flyby observations and provide a basis for global magnetospheric modeling. We find that during both flybys, the solar wind conditions were very quiescent and would have provided only modest dynamic driving forces for Mercury's magnetospheric system.  相似文献   

Introduction to Special Issue on Spatial Modeling in GIS     

Gary L. Raines  Graeme Bonham-Carter 《Natural Resources Research》2007,16(2):81-84

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Preliminary Cellular-Automata Forecast of Permit Activity from 1998 to 2010, Idaho and Western Montana     

Raines  G. L.  Zientek  M. L.  Causey  J. D.  Boleneus  D. E. 《Natural Resources Research》2002,11(3):167-186

For public land management in Idaho and western Montana, the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) has requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) predict where mineral-related activity will occur in the next decade. Cellular automata provide an approach to simulation of this human activity. Cellular automata (CA) are defined by an array of cells, which evolve by a simple transition rule, the automaton. Based on exploration trends, we assume that future exploration will focus in areas of past exploration. Spatial-temporal information about mineral-related activity, that is permits issued by USFS and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in the last decade, and spatial information about undiscovered resources, provide a basis to calibrate a CA. The CA implemented is a modified annealed voting rule that simulates mineral-related activity with spatial and temporal resolution of 1 mi² and 1 year based on activity from 1989 to 1998. For this CA, the state of the economy and exploration technology is assumed constant for the next decade. The calibrated CA reproduces the 1989–1998-permit activity with an agreement of 94%, which increases to 98% within one year. Analysis of the confusion matrix and kappa correlation statistics indicates that the CA underestimates high activity and overestimates low activity. Spatially, the major differences between the actual and calculated activity are that the calculated activity occurs in a slightly larger number of small patches and is slightly more uneven than the actual activity. Using the calibrated CA in a Monte Carlo simulation projecting from 1998 to 2010, an estimate of the probability of mineral activity shows high levels of activity in Boise, Caribou, Elmore, Lincoln, and western Valley counties in Idaho and Beaverhead, Madison, and Stillwater counties in Montana, and generally low activity elsewhere.  相似文献   

Development and Implementation of a Bayesian-based Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment in Florida   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

Jonathan D. Arthur  H. Alex R. Wood  Alan E. Baker  James R. Cichon  Gary L. Raines 《Natural Resources Research》2007,16(2):93-107

The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida’s principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida’s springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning amendments and prioritization of land purchases to protect groundwater resources.  相似文献   

Porphyry Copper Deposit Tract Definition – A Global Analysis Comparing Geologic Map Scales     

Gary L. Raines  Katherine A. Connors  Lesley B. Chorlton 《Natural Resources Research》2007,16(2):191-198

Geologic maps are a fundamental data source used to define mineral-resource potential tracts for the first step of a mineral resource assessment. Further, it is generally believed that the scale of the geologic map is a critical consideration. Previously published research has demonstrated that the U.S. Geological Survey porphyry tracts identified for the United States, which are based on 1:500,000-scale geology and larger scale data and published at 1:1,000,000 scale, can be approximated using a more generalized 1:2,500,000-scale geologic map. Comparison of the USGS porphyry tracts for the United States with weights-of-evidence models made using a 1:10,000,000-scale geologic map, which was made for petroleum applications, and a 1:35,000,000-scale geologic map, which was created as context for the distribution of porphyry deposits, demonstrates that, again, the USGS US porphyry tracts identified are similar to tracts defined on features from these small scale maps. In fact, the results using the 1:35,000,000-scale map show a slightly higher correlation with the USGS US tract definition, probably because the conceptual context for this small-scale map is more appropriate for porphyry tract definition than either of the other maps. This finding demonstrates that geologic maps are conceptual maps. The map information shown in each map is selected and generalized for the map to display the concepts deemed important for the map maker’s purpose. Some geologic maps of small scale prove to be useful for regional mineral-resource tract definition, despite the decrease in spatial accuracy with decreasing scale. The utility of a particular geologic map for a particular application is critically dependent on the alignment of the intention of the map maker with the application.  相似文献