Forecasting scheme for swan coastal river streamflow using combined model of IOHLN and Niño4     

Saqib Ur Rehman  Kashif Saleem 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2014,50(2):211-219

The study aims to investigate the possible relationship between Niño 4 and Indian Ocean high longitude (IOHLN) with the Swan coastal river flow by constructing a regression model which predict streamflow patterns and which enables to obtain long time lead to forecasting, in a period when there was not much rainfall. Many streamflow forecast models use rainfall and runoff relationship, which is dependent on basin response time and hence cannot provide large forecasting lead time. For water resource management, this lead time of predictability is not capable for a long period of drying trend. Significant findings of this study suggest that Niño 4 and Indian Ocean high pressure longitude (IOHLN) can be used for forecasting of flow in Swan river. In this study not only qualitative forecast of Swan coastal river is presented based on the conditional probability, but also a quantitative forecast is done by combining Niño.4 and IOHLN indices using multiple regression, which shows enhancement over other climate indicators when used alone. The Conditional probability model correctly predict 7 years category of flow out of 8 years flow.  相似文献   

Characteristics of moisture flux convergence in Central Southwest Asia     

Khalid M. Malik  Peter A. Taylor  Kit Szeto 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,120(3-4):643-659

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Study of Shoreline Changes Through Digital Shoreline Analysis System and Wave Modeling: Case of the Sandy Coast of Bou-Ismail Bay,Algeria     

Kaddour  Said  Hemdane  Yacine  Kessali  Nasser  Belabdi  Khalid  Sallaye  Miloud 《Ocean Science Journal》2022,57(3):493-527

Ocean Science Journal - This work aims to analyze the evolution of Bou-Ismail coastline in Algeria using aerial photographs and quick-bird satellite image during the elapsed period from 1959 to...  相似文献   

Threat of glacial lake outburst flood to Tehsil Gupis from Khukush Lake, District Ghizer, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan     

Gohar Rehman  Sajjad Ahmad  Shuhab D. Khan  Fayaz Ali  Taqweemul H. Ali  Sadaf F. Khan 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(2):1589-1602

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a powerful natural phenomenon that is very active in the Karakoram and Himalayas. This paper presents a case study from Gupis Tehsil in northern areas of Pakistan that is exposed to GLOFs from nine different glacial lakes in its upper catchment areas. Khukush Lake being the largest of all the glacial lakes has been studied and a flood attenuation model has been created for the whole Gupis Tehsil. This lake covers almost 2.2 km² of surface area, and its calculated volume is 2.6 × 10⁴ m³. In case of its outburst, the peak flow discharge is calculated to be 7,642 m³/s. The catchment area which contributes water and debris to the lake is 170 km². This lake is dammed by a glacial moraine, which is not strong enough to sustain the pressure for a longer period of time. Other factors that are reducing the reliability of the dam are the secondary hazards which are in direct contact with the lake, and in case of their reactivation, they can put severe impacts on the dam. There are eight potential sites of the snow avalanche activity where debris along with snow may fall directly into the lake producing a strong wave. This strong wave of water will increase the pressure on the dam and ultimately will increase the probability for its outburst. The presense of water springs towards the downstream side of the natural dam also indicate the presence of hidden channels passing through the dam which may weaken the shear strength of the dam. Almost 24 villages settled along either sides of the Gupis River are critically studied for the expected flood from Khukush Lake. With few exceptions, almost 20–25 % area of all the villages will be affected from this flood.  相似文献   

Waterflood management using two-stage optimization with streamline simulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tailai Wen  Marco R. Thiele  David Echeverría Ciaurri  Khalid Aziz  Yinyu Ye 《Computational Geosciences》2014,18(3-4):483-504

Waterflooding is a common secondary oil recovery process. Performance of waterfloods in mature fields with a significant number of wells can be improved with minimal infrastructure investment by optimizing injection/production rates of individual wells. However, a major bottleneck in the optimization framework is the large number of reservoir flow simulations often required. In this work, we propose a new method based on streamline-derived information that significantly reduces these computational costs in addition to making use of the computational efficiency of streamline simulation itself. We seek to maximize the long-term net present value of a waterflood by determining optimal individual well rates, given an expected albeit uncertain oil price and a total fluid injection volume. We approach the optimization problem by decomposing it into two stages which can be implemented in a computationally efficient manner. We show that the two-stage streamline-based optimization approach can be an effective technique when applied to reservoirs with a large number of wells in need of an efficient waterflooding strategy over a 5 to 15-year period.  相似文献   

3D analysis of kinematic behavior of granular materials in triaxial testing using DEM with flexible membrane boundary   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Mehmet B. Cil  Khalid A. Alshibli 《Acta Geotechnica》2014,9(2):287-298

This paper describes the constitutive behavior and particle-scale kinematics of granular materials in three-dimensional (3D) axisymmetric triaxial testing using discrete element method (DEM). PFC3D code was used to run the DEM simulations using a flexible membrane boundary model consisting of spherical particles linked through flexible contact bonds. The overall deformation behavior of the specimen was then compared with the specimen with rigid boundary and experimental measurements. Computed tomography was used to track the evolution of particle translation and rotation within a laboratory triaxial specimen in 3D. The DEM model of the flexible membrane specimen successfully predicted the stress–strain behavior when compared with laboratory experiment results at different confining pressures. The DEM results showed that the rigid specimen applies a uniform deformation and leads to non-uniformities in the confining stress along the particle-boundary interface in the lateral direction. In contrast, the flexible specimen better replicates the uniformly applied confining stress of a laboratory triaxial experiment. The 3D DEM simulations of the specimen with flexible membrane overpredicted particle translation and rotation in all directions when compared to a laboratory triaxial specimen. The difference between the particle translation and rotation distributions of DEM specimens with rigid and flexible membrane is almost negligible. The DEM specimen with flexible membrane produces a better prediction of the macroscopic stress–strain behavior and deformation characteristics of granular materials in 3D DEM simulations when compared to a specimen with rigid membrane. Comparing macroscale response and particle-scale kinematics between triaxial simulation results of rigid versus flexible membrane demonstrated the significant influence of boundary effects on the constitutive behavior of granular materials.  相似文献   

Application of empirical and semi-analytical algorithms to MERIS data for estimating chlorophyll a in Case 2 waters of Lake Erie     

Khalid Ali  Donna Witter  Joseph Ortiz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(9):4209-4220

Lake Erie is biologically the most active lake among the Great Lakes of North America, experiencing seasonal harmful algal blooms (HABs). The early detection of HABs in the Western Basin of Lake Erie (WBLE) requires a more efficient and accurate monitoring tool. Remote sensing is an efficient tool with high spatial and temporal coverage that can allow accurate and timely detection of the HABs. The WBLE is heavily influenced by the surrounding terrestrial ecosystem via rivers such as the Sandusky River and the Maumee River. As a result, the optical properties of the WBLE are influenced by multiple color producing agents (CPAs) such as phytoplankton, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), organic detritus, and terrigenous inorganic particles. The diversity of the CPAs and their non-linear interactions makes these waters optically complex, and the task of optical remote sensing for retrieving estimates of CPAs more challenging. Chlorophyll a, which is the primary light harvesting pigment in all phytoplankton, is used as a proxy for algal biomass. In this study, several published remote sensing algorithms and band ratio models were applied to the reflectance data from the full resolution MERIS sensor to remotely estimate chlorophyll a concentrations in the WBLE. Efficiency of the sensor and the algorithms performance were tested through a least squares regression and residual analysis. The results indicate that, among the suite of existing bio-optical models, the Simis semi-analytical algorithm provided the best model results for measures of algal biomass in the optically complex WBLE with R ² of 0.65, RMSE 0.85 μg/l, (n = 71, P < 0.05). The superior results of this model in detecting chlorophyll a are attributed to several factors including optimizing spectral regions that are less sensitive to CDOM and the incorporation of correction factors such as absorption effects due to pure water (a _w), backscatter (b _b) from suspended matter and interference due to phycocyanin (δ), a major accessory pigment in the WBLE.  相似文献   

A spatial statistical analysis of the occurrence of earthquakes along the Red Sea floor spreading: clusters of seismicity     

Khalid Al-Ahmadi  Abdullah Al-Amri  Linda See 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(7):2893-2904

The aim of this study is to apply spatial pattern analysis techniques to a seismic data catalog of earthquakes beneath the Red Sea to try and detect clusters and explore global and local spatial patterns in the occurrence of earthquakes over the years from 1900 to 2009 using a geographical information system (GIS). The spatial pattern analysis techniques chosen for this study were quadrant count analysis, average nearest neighbor, global Moran’s I, Getis–Ord general G, Anselin Local Moran’s I, Getis–Ord Gi*, kernel density estimation, and geographical distributions. Each of these techniques was implemented in the GIS so that computations could be carried out quickly and efficiently. Results showed that (1) these techniques were capable of detecting clusters in the spatial patterns of the occurrence of the earthquakes; (2) both global and local spatial statistics indicate that earthquakes were clustered in the study area beneath the Red Sea; (3) earthquakes with higher magnitudes on the Richter scale were notably concentrated in the central and southern parts of the Red Sea where seismic activities were most active; and (4) earthquakes with moderate magnitudes on the Richter scale were particularly concentrated in the northern part of the Red Sea where there is an area of late-stage continental rifting comprised of a broad trough without a recognizable spreading center, although there were several small, isolated deep troughs. We conclude that the pattern analysis techniques applied to the seismic data catalog of earthquakes beneath the Red Sea could detect clusters in the occurrence of earthquakes from 1900 to 2009.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variations of physicochemical and heavy metal pollution in Ramganga River—a tributary of River Ganges,India     

Mohd Yawar Ali Khan  Khalid Muzamil Gani  Govind Joseph Chakrapani 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(5):231

The River Ganges being the most sacred river and lifeline to millions of Indians in serving their water requirements is facing excessive threat of pollution. Under various river management and conservation strategies for its protection, the assessment of water quality of its main tributary Ramganga River is lacking. This study focuses on assessment of physicochemical and heavy metal pollution of the Ramganga River by application of multivariate statistical techniques. Sampling of Ramganga River at sixteen sampling sites was carried out in three seasons (summer, monsoon and winter) of 2014. The collected water samples were analyzed for physicochemical parameters and heavy metals. Results from cluster analysis (CA) of the data divided the whole stretch of the river into three clusters as elevation from 1304 to 259 m as less polluted, from 207 to 154 m as moderately polluted and from elevation 154 to 139 m as high-polluted stretches with anthropogenic as main sources of pollution in high-polluted stretch. Principal component analysis of the seasonal dataset resulted in three significant principal components (PC) in each season explaining 72–8% of total variance with strong loadings (>0.75) of PC1 on fluoride (F^?), chloride (Cl^?), sodium (Na⁺), calcium (Ca²⁺), magnesium (Mg²⁺), bicarbonate (HCO₃ ^?), total dissolved solids and electrical conductivity. Temporal variation by one-way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) showed significant seasonal variation was in the pH, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand, turbidity, HCO₃ ^?, F^?, Zn, cadmium (Cd) and Mn (p < 0.05). Turbidity showed approximately a twofold increase in monsoon season due to rainfall in the catchment area and subsequent flow of runoff into the river. Concentration of HCO₃ ^?, F^? and pH also showed similar increase in monsoon. The concentration of Zn, Cd and Mn showed an increasing trend in summers compared to monsoon and winter season due to dilution effect in the monsoon season and its lasting effect in winters.  相似文献