Probability Aggregation Methods in Geoscience   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

D. Allard  A. Comunian  P. Renard 《Mathematical Geosciences》2012,44(5):545-581

The need for combining different sources of information in a probabilistic framework is a frequent task in earth sciences. This is a need that can be seen when modeling a reservoir using direct geological observations, geophysics, remote sensing, training images, and more. The probability of occurrence of a certain lithofacies at a certain location for example can easily be computed conditionally on the values observed at each source of information. The problem of aggregating these different conditional probability distributions into a single conditional distribution arises as an approximation to the inaccessible genuine conditional probability given all information. This paper makes a formal review of most aggregation methods proposed so far in the literature with a particular focus on their mathematical properties. Exact relationships relating the different methods is emphasized. The case of events with more than two possible outcomes, never explicitly studied in the literature, is treated in detail. It is shown that in this case, equivalence between different aggregation formulas is lost. The concepts of calibration, sharpness, and reliability, well known in the weather forecasting community for assessing the goodness-of-fit of the aggregation formulas, and a maximum likelihood estimation of the aggregation parameters are introduced. We then prove that parameters of calibrated log-linear pooling formulas are a solution of the maximum likelihood estimation equations. These results are illustrated on simulations from two common stochastic models for earth science: the truncated Gaussian model and the Boolean. It is found that the log-linear pooling provides the best prediction while the linear pooling provides the worst.  相似文献   

Truncated plurigaussian simulations to characterize aquifer heterogeneity   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Mariethoz G  Renard P  Cornaton F  Jaquet O 《Ground water》2009,47(1):13-24

Integrating geological concepts, such as relative positions and proportions of the different lithofacies, is of highest importance in order to render realistic geological patterns. The truncated plurigaussian simulation method provides a way of using both local and conceptual geological information to infer the distributions of the facies and then those of hydraulic parameters. The method ( Le Loc'h and Galli 1994 ) is based on the idea of truncating at least two underlying multi-Gaussian simulations in order to create maps of categorical variable. In this article, we show how this technique can be used to assess contaminant migration in highly heterogeneous media. We illustrate its application on the biggest contaminated site of Switzerland. It consists of a contaminant plume located in the lower fresh water Molasse on the western Swiss Plateau. The highly heterogeneous character of this formation calls for efficient stochastic methods in order to characterize transport processes.  相似文献   

Timescales of interface-coupled dissolution-precipitation reactions on carbonates     

Fran?ois Renard  Anja R?yne  Christine V.Putnis 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(1):17-27

In the Earth's upper crust, where aqueous fluids can circulate freely, most mineral transformations are controlled by the coupling between the dissolution of a mineral that releases chemical species into the fluid and precipitation of new minerals that contain some of the released species in their crystal structure, the coupled process being driven by a reduction of the total free-energy of the system. Such coupled dissolution-precipitation processes occur at the fluid-mineral interface where the chemical gradients are highest and heterogeneous nucleation can be promoted, therefore controlling the growth kinetics of the new minerals. Time-lapse nanoscale imaging using Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) can monitor the whole coupled process under in situ conditions and allow identifying the time scales involved and the controlling parameters. We have performed a series of experiments on carbonate minerals (calcite, siderite, dolomite and magnesite) where dissolution of the carbonate and precipitation of a new mineral was imaged and followed through time. In the presence of various species in the reacting fluid (e. g. antimony, selenium, arsenic, phosphate), the calcium released during calcite dissolution binds with these species to form new minerals that sequester these hazardous species in the form of a stable solid phase. For siderite, the coupling involves the release of Fe²⁺ ions that subsequently become oxidized and then precipitate in the form of Fe^III oxyhydroxides. For dolomite and magnesite, dissolution in the presence of pure water (undersaturated with any possible phase) results in the immediate precipitation of hydrated Mg-carbonate phases. In all these systems, dissolution and precipitation are coupled and occur directly in a boundary layer at the carbonate surface. Scaling arguments demonstrate that the thickness of this boundary layer is controlled by the rate of carbonate dissolution, the equilibrium concentration of the precipitates and the kinetics of diffusion of species in a boundary layer. From these parameters a characteristic time scale and a characteristic length scale of the boundary layer can be derived. This boundary layer grows with time and never reaches a steady state thickness as long as dissolution of the carbonate is faster than precipitation of the new mineral. At ambient temperature, the surface reactions of these dissolving carbonates occur on time-scales of the order of seconds to minutes, indicating the rapid surface rearrangement of carbonates in the presence of aqueous fluids. As a consequence, many carbonate-fluid reactions in low temperature environments are controlled by local thermodynamic equilibria rather than by the global equilibrium in the whole system.  相似文献   

Fast and Interactive Editing Tools for Spatial Models     

Straubhaar  Julien  Renard  Philippe  Mariethoz  Grégoire  Chugunova  Tatiana  Biver  Pierre 《Mathematical Geosciences》2019,51(1):109-125

Mathematical Geosciences - Multiple point statistics (MPS) algorithms allow generation of random fields reproducing the spatial features of a training image (TI). Although many MPS techniques offer...  相似文献   

Using Generative Adversarial Networks as a Fast Forward Operator for Hydrogeological Inverse Problems     

Yasin Dagasan  Przemysław Juda  Philippe Renard 《Ground water》2020,58(6):938-950

Subsurface characterization using inverse techniques constitutes one of the fundamental elements of hydrogeological modeling applications. Available methods to solve inverse problems rely on a forward operator that predicts state variables for a given set of subsurface parameters. As the number of model parameters to be estimated increases, forward operations incur a significant computational demand. In this paper, we investigate the use of conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) as an emulator for the forward operator in the context of a hydrogeological inverse problem. We particularly investigate if the cGAN can be used to replace the forward operator used in the adaptive importance sampling method posterior population expansion (PoPEx) with reasonable accuracy and feasible computation requirement. The cGAN model trained on channelized geological structures has shown that the cGAN is able to reproduce the state variables corresponding to a certain parameter field. Hence, its integration in PoPEx yielded satisfactory results. In terms of the computational demand, the use of cGAN as a surrogate forward model reduces the required computational time up to 80% for the problem defined in the study. However, the training time required to create a model seems to be the major drawback of the method.  相似文献   

Mapping Groundwater Potential Through an Ensemble of Big Data Methods     

P. Martínez-Santos  P. Renard 《Ground water》2020,58(4):583-597

Groundwater resources are crucial to safe drinking supplies in sub-Saharan Africa, and will be increasingly relied upon in a context of climate change. The need to better understand groundwater calls for innovative approaches to make the best out of the existing information. A methodology to map groundwater potential based on an ensemble of machine learning classifiers is presented. A large borehole database (n = 1848) was integrated into a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment and used to train, validate and test 12 machine learning algorithms. Each classifier predicts a binary target (positive or negative borehole) based on the minimum flow rate required for communal domestic supplies. Classification is based on a number of explanatory variables, including landforms, lineaments, soil, vegetation, geology and slope, among others. Correlations between the target and explanatory variables were then generalized to develop groundwater potential maps. Most algorithms attained success rates between 80% and 96% in terms of test score, which suggests that the outcomes provide an accurate picture of field conditions. Statistical learners were observed to perform better than most other algorithms, excepting random forests and support vector machines. Furthermore, it is concluded that the ensemble approach provides added value by incorporating a measure of uncertainty to the results. This technique may be used to rapidly map groundwater potential for rural supply or humanitarian emergencies in areas where there is sufficient historical data but where comprehensive field work is unfeasible.  相似文献   

An Improved Parallel Multiple-point Algorithm Using a List Approach   总被引：15，自引：8，他引：7  

Julien Straubhaar  Philippe Renard  Gr��goire Mariethoz  Roland Froidevaux  Olivier Besson 《Mathematical Geosciences》2011,43(3):305-328

Among the techniques used to simulate categorical variables, multiple-point statistics is becoming very popular because it allows the user to provide an explicit conceptual model via a training image. In classic implementations, the multiple-point statistics are inferred from the training image by storing all the observed patterns of a certain size in a tree structure. This type of algorithm has the advantage of being fast to apply, but it presents some critical limitations. In particular, a tree is extremely RAM demanding. For three-dimensional problems with numerous facies, large templates cannot be used. Complex structures are then difficult to simulate. In this paper, we propose to replace the tree by a list. This structure requires much less RAM. It has three main advantages. First, it allows for the use of larger templates. Second, the list structure being parsimonious, it can be extended to include additional information. Here, we show how this can be used to develop a new approach for dealing with non-stationary training images. Finally, an interesting aspect of the list is that it allows one to parallelize the part of the algorithm in which the conditional probability density function is computed. This is especially important for large problems that can be solved on clusters of PCs with distributed memory or on multicore machines with shared memory.  相似文献   

Urban Structure Generalization in Multi‐Agent Process by Use of Reactional Agents     

Jérémy Renard  Cécile Duchêne 《Transactions in GIS》2014,18(2):201-218

This article proposes an improvement of automated cartographic generalization using multi‐agent sytems in urban areas. Indeed the AGENT model, whose robustness has been tested and approved through the European project AGENT, gives very good results in generalizing dense urban areas by means of enlargement, removal and displacement of buildings. But this model does not tackle the question of including particular structures like building alignments in the process, which is a crucial issue. The problem is that integrating such structures does not fit into the accurate top‐down hierarchy of urban agents. In order to face this problem, we propose to partly re‐engineer the model by introducing the concept of reactional agents whose behavior is very different from hierarchical agents of the original model as they use bottom‐up activation. In this view, urban alignment is considered to be a reactional agent activated only by its inner buildings, which generalizes the aligned buildings together into one entire structure. Associating reactional alignment behavior with new generalization actions on alignments significantly improves the model and gives better results in dense urban areas. Moreover, the idea could probably be used for other applications.  相似文献   

Grid-enabled Monte Carlo analysis of the impacts of uncertain discharge rates on seawater intrusion in the Korba aquifer (Tunisia)     

Jaouher Kerrou  Philippe Renard  Giuditta Lecca  Jamila Tarhouni 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1325-1336

Abstract

The Korba aquifer, located in the north of Tunisia, suffers heavily from salinization due to seawater intrusion. In 2000, the aquifer was exploited from more than 9000 wells. The problem is that no precise information was recorded concerning the current extraction rates, their spatial distribution, or their evolution in time. In this study, a geostatistical model of the exploitation rates was constructed based on a multi-linear regression model combining incomplete direct data and exhaustive secondary information. The impacts of the uncertainty on the spatial distribution of the pumping rates on seawater intrusion were evaluated using a 3-D density-dependent groundwater model. To circumvent the large amount of computing time required to run transient models, the simulations were run in a parallel fashion on the Grid infrastructure provided by the Enabling Grid for E-Science in Europe project. Monte Carlo simulations results showed that 8.3% of the aquifer area is affected by input uncertainty.

Citation Kerrou, J., Renard, P., Lecca, G. & Tarhouni, J. (2010 Kerrou, J., Renard, P. and Tarhouni, J. 2010. Status of the Korba groundwater resources (Tunisia): observations and three-dimensional modelling of seawater intrusion. Hydrogeol. J., 18(5): 1173–1190. doi:10.1007/s10040-010-0573-5[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) Grid-enabled Monte Carlo analysis of the impacts of uncertain discharge rates on seawater intrusion in the Korba aquifer (Tunisia). Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1325–1336.  相似文献   

Microstructures Induced in Porous Limestone by Dynamic Loading,and Fracture Healing: An Experimental Approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Julie Richard  Mai-Linh Doan  Jean-Pierre Gratier  François Renard 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(5):1269-1290

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