Fault seal prediction of seismic-scale normal faults in porous sandstone: A case study from the eastern Gulf of Suez rift,Egypt     

Christian Tueckmantel  Quentin J. Fisher  Rob J. Knipe  Henry Lickorish  Samir M. Khalil 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2010

A study of normal faults in the Nubian Sandstone Sequence, from the eastern Gulf of Suez rift, has been conducted to investigate the relationship between the microstructure and petrophysical properties of cataclasites developed along seismic-scale faults (slip-surface cataclasites) and smaller displacement faults (deformation bands) found in their damage zones. The results help to quantify the uncertainty associated with predicting the fluid flow behaviour of seismic-scale faults by analysing small faults recovered from core, a common procedure in the petroleum industry. The microstructure of the cataclasites was analysed as well as their single-phase permeability and threshold pressure. Faulting occurred at a maximum burial depth of ∼1.2 km. The permeability of deformation band and slip-surface cataclasites varies over ∼1.5 orders of magnitude for a given fault. Our results suggest that the lowest measured deformation band permeabilities provide a good estimate for the arithmetic-mean permeability of the major slip-surface cataclasites. This is because the cataclastic permeability reduction is mostly established early in the deformation history. Stress at the time of faulting rather than final strain appears to be the critical factor determining fault rock permeability. For viable predictions it is important that the slip-surface cataclasites and deformation bands originate from the same host. On the other hand, a higher uncertainty is associated with threshold pressure predictions, as the arithmetic-mean slip-surface cataclasite threshold pressure exceeds the highest measured deformation band threshold pressure by at least a factor of 4.  相似文献   

Linearly Organized Turbulence Structures Observed Over a Suburban Area by Dual-Doppler Lidar   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Rob Newsom  Ron Calhoun  David Ligon  Jerry Allwine 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,127(1):111-130

Dual-Doppler lidar observations are used to investigate the structure and evolution of surface-layer flow over a suburban area. The observations were made during the Joint Urban 2003 (JU2003) field experiment in Oklahoma City, U.S.A. in the summer of 2003. This study focuses specifically on a 10-h sequence of scan data beginning shortly after noon local time on 7 July 2003. During this period two coherent Doppler lidars performed overlapping low elevation angle sector scans upwind and south of Oklahoma City’s central business district. Radial velocity data from the two lidars are processed to reveal the structure and evolution of the horizontal velocity field in the surface layer throughout the afternoon and during the evening transition period. The retrieved velocity fields clearly show a tendency for turbulence structures to be elongated in the direction of the mean flow throughout the entire 10-h study period. In order to quantify the observed anisotropy and its dependence on stability, integral length scales are estimated directly from the spatially resolved velocity retrievals. As the flow became more stably stratified the characteristic cross-stream dimension of the linear structures decreased. The streamwise component was consistently more anisotropic than the cross-stream component, and both velocity components exhibited maximum anisotropy under neutral conditions. The ratio of the streamwise to cross-stream length scale was estimated to be about eight for the streamwise component, and four for the cross-stream component under neutral conditions.  相似文献   

Discriminant analysis for estimation of groundwater age from hydrochemistry and well construction: application to New Zealand aquifers     

Christopher J. Daughney  Uwe Morgenstern  Rob van der Raaij  Robert R. Reeves 《Hydrogeology Journal》2010,18(2):417-428

Concentrations of tritium, chlorofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride have been measured at over 100 groundwater monitoring sites across New Zealand, followed by interpretation of groundwater age distribution using the exponential-piston flow model. Interpreted mean residence times ranged from less than 1 year to more than 100 years, with the 25th, 50th (median) and 75th percentiles being approximately 10, 40 and 100 years, respectively. Classification functions derived from discriminant analysis and based on nine input variables (well depth, electrical conductivity and the concentrations of the ions Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO₃, Cl and SO₄) allowed assignment of 71% of the sites to the correct of four age categories (mean residence time 10 years or less, 11–40 years, 41–100 years, or more than 100 years). The discriminant analysis classification functions were more effective than regression methods for estimating groundwater age from hydrochemistry and well depth, and can thus be used to predict the groundwater age category for any monitoring site in New Zealand.  相似文献   

European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations     

Eduardo Zorita  Anders Moberg  Lotta Leijonhufvud  Rob Wilson  Rudolf Brázdil  Petr Dobrovolný  Jürg Luterbacher  Reinhard Böhm  Christian Pfister  Dirk Riemann  Rüdiger Glaser  Johan Söderberg  Fidel González-Rouco 《Climatic change》2010,101(1-2):143-168

Two European temperature reconstructions for the past half-millennium, January-to-April air temperature for Stockholm (Sweden) and seasonal temperature for a Central European region, both derived from the analysis of documentary sources and long instrumental records, are compared with the output of climate simulations with the model ECHO-G. The analysis is complemented by comparisons with the long (early)-instrumental record of Central England Temperature (CET). Both approaches to study past climates (simulations and reconstructions) are burdened with uncertainties. The main objective of this comparative analysis is to identify robust features and weaknesses in each method which may help to improve models and reconstruction methods. The results indicate a general agreement between simulations obtained with temporally changing external forcings and the reconstructed Stockholm and CET records for the multi-centennial temperature trend over the recent centuries, which is not reproduced in a control simulation. This trend is likely due to the long-term change in external forcing. Additionally, the Stockholm reconstruction and the CET record also show a clear multi-decadal warm episode peaking around AD 1730, which is absent in the simulations. Neither the reconstruction uncertainties nor the model internal climate variability can easily explain this difference. Regarding the interannual variability, the Stockholm series displays, in some periods, higher amplitudes than the simulations but these differences are within the statistical uncertainty and further decrease if output from a regional model driven by the global model is used. The long-term trend of the CET series agrees less well with the simulations. The reconstructed temperature displays, for all seasons, a smaller difference between the present climate and past centuries than is seen in the simulations. Possible reasons for these differences may be related to a limitation of the traditional ‘indexing’ technique for converting documentary evidence to temperature values to capture long-term climate changes, because the documents often reflect temperatures relative to the contemporary authors’ own perception of what constituted ‘normal’ conditions. By contrast, the amplitude of the simulated and reconstructed inter-annual variability agrees rather well.  相似文献   

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jae Edmonds  Steven J. Smith  Kate V. Calvin  Joseph Karas  Mikiko Kainuma  Nebojsa Nakicenovic  Keywan Riahi  Bas J. van Ruijven  Rob Swart  Allison Thomson 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):635-642

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them.  相似文献   

Changing hillslope and fluvial Holocene sediment dynamics in a Belgian loess catchment     

Bastiaan Notebaert  Gert Verstraeten  Dimitri Vandenberghe  Elena Marinova  Jean Poesen  Gerard Govers 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(1):44-58

Floodplain deposition is an essential part of the Holocene sediment dynamics of many catchments and a thorough dating control of these floodplain deposits is therefore essential to understand the driving forces of these sediment dynamics. In this paper we date floodplain and colluvial deposition in the Belgian Dijle catchment using accelerator mass spectrometric radiocarbon and optical stimulated luminescence dating. Relative mass accumulation curves for the Holocene were constructed for three colluvial sites and 12 alluvial sites. A database was constructed of all available radiocarbon ages of the catchment and this database was analysed using relative sediment mass accumulation rates and cumulative probability functions of ages and site‐specific sedimentation curves. Cumulative probability functions of ages were split into different depositional environments representing stable phases and phases of accelerated clastic deposition. The results indicate that there is an important variation between the different dated sites. After an initial stable early and middle Holocene phase with mainly peat growth in the floodplains, clastic sedimentation rates increased from 4000 BC on. This first phase was more pronounced and started somewhat earlier for colluvial deposits then for alluvial deposits. The main part of the Holocene deposits, both in colluvial and alluvial valleys, was deposited during the last 1 ka. The sedimentation pattern of the individual dated sites and the catchment‐wide pattern indicate that land use changes are responsible for the main variations in the Holocene sediment dynamics of this catchment, while the field data do not provide indications for a climatological influence on the sediment dynamics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Accurate extragalactic distances and dark energy: anchoring the distance scale with rotational parallaxes     

Rob P. Olling 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,378(4):1385-1399

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Modelling mean annual sediment yield using a distributed approach   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Anton J. J. Van Rompaey  Gert Verstraeten  Kristof Van Oost  Gerard Govers  Jean Poesen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2001,26(11):1221-1236

In this paper a spatially distributed model for the calculation of sediment delivery to river channels is presented (SEDEM: SEdiment DElivery Model). The model consists of two components: (1) the calculation of a spatial pattern of mean annual soil erosion rates in the catchment using a RUSLE (Revised Soil Erosion Equation) approach; and (2) the routing of the eroded sediment to the river channel network taking into account the transport capacity of each spatial unit. If the amount of routed sediment exceeds the local transport capacity, sediment deposition occurs. An existing dataset on sediment yield for 24 catchments in central Belgium was used to calibrate the transport capacity parameters of the model. A validation of the model results shows that the sediment yield for small and medium sized catchments (10–5000 ha) can be predicted with an average accuracy of 41 per cent. The predicted sediment yield values with SEDEM are significantly more accurate than the predictions using a lumped regression model. Moreover a spatially distributed approach allows simulation of the effect of different land use scenarios and soil conservation techniques. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Correction factors for estimating suspended sediment export from loess catchments     

A. Steegen  G. Govers 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2001,26(4):441-449

This study focuses on problems related to estimating the exact exported suspended sediment quantity and quality from flow‐proportional samples taken at a fixed height at the outlet of a small, agricultural catchment in central Belgium. First, a correction factor is introduced to estimate the real suspended sediment concentration. This factor depends on the stream depth and the grain size distribution of the sediment and is necessary because of the presence of a concentration gradient in the stream. Secondly, water depth is corrected for the sediment volume, and thirdly, the grain size distribution of the exported sediment is corrected. The application of these correction factors leads to a reduction of the estimated total sediment export by 18 per cent (from 4810 Mg over a period of three years to 3930 Mg). Furthermore, the importance of small grain size fractions increases, leading to higher enrichment ratios for the clay fraction and lower ratios for the sand fraction. Suspended sediment export is thus more selective than was previously thought. Due to the overestimation of the sediment export, total phosphorus losses from the catchment are also overestimated by 17 per cent. This paper therefore emphasizes that point sampling of suspended sediment is biased and that a method should be incorporated to correct the sediment export in terms of quantity and quality. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fitness spaces and their potential for visualizing change in the physical landscape     

Rob Inkpen  & Dave Petley 《Area》2001,33(3):242-251

The use of the metaphors of general fitness and N-K spaces can assist in the understanding of the development of the physical landscape. Different modes of change can be viewed as different types of movement in, and distortions of, these phase spaces. Visualized in this manner landscape change can be viewed as both channelized, constrained and random.  相似文献