Exploring links between juvenile offenders and social disorganization at a large map scale: a Bayesian spatial modeling approach     

Jane Law  Matthew Quick 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2013,15(1):89-113

This paper adopts a Bayesian spatial modeling approach to investigate the distribution of young offender residences in York Region, Southern Ontario, Canada, at the census dissemination area level. Few geographic researches have analyzed offender (as opposed to offense) data at a large map scale (i.e., using a relatively small areal unit of analysis) to minimize aggregation effects. Providing context is the social disorganization theory, which hypothesizes that areas with economic deprivation, high population turnover, and high ethnic heterogeneity exhibit social disorganization and are expected to facilitate higher instances of young offenders. Non-spatial and spatial Poisson models indicate that spatial methods are superior to non-spatial models with respect to model fit and that index of ethnic heterogeneity, residential mobility (1 year moving rate), and percentage of residents receiving government transfer payments are, respectively, the most significant explanatory variables related to young offender location. These findings provide overwhelming support for social disorganization theory as it applies to offender location in York Region, Ontario. Targeting areas where prevalence of young offenders could or could not be explained by social disorganization through decomposing the estimated risk map are helpful for dealing with juvenile offenders in the region. Results prompt discussion into geographically targeted police services and young offender placement pertaining to risk of recidivism. We discuss possible reasons for differences and similarities between the previous findings (that analyzed offense data and/or were conducted at a smaller map scale) and our findings, limitations of our study, and practical outcomes of this research from a law enforcement perspective.  相似文献   

Present-day trends of vertical ground motion along the coast lines     

Émilie Ostanciaux  Laurent Husson  Gaël Choblet  Cécile Robin  Kevin Pedoja 《Earth》2012,110(1-4):74-92

Vertical ground motion (VGM) rates stand as crucial information, either for predicting the impact of the actual sea level rise along low-lying coasts or refining geodynamic problems. Because present day VGM rates have a magnitude smaller than 10 mm/yr, they remain challenging to quantify and often elusive. We focus on the quantification of global-scale VGM rates in order to identify global or regional trends. We computed VGM rates by combining tide gauges records and local satellite altimetry, which yield a new dataset of 634 VGM rates. We further compare this database to previous studies that use geodetic techniques and tide gauges records in order to evaluate the consistency of both our results and previous ones. The magnitudes differ by less than 5 mm/yr, and similar subsidence and uplift general tendencies appear. Even if the asset of our database stands in the greater number of sites, the combination of all studies, each with different pros and cons, yields a hybrid dataset that makes our attempt to extract VGM trends more robust than any other, independent study. Fennoscandia, the West coast of North America, and the eastern coast of Australia are uplifting, while the eastern coast of North America, the British Isles and Western Europe, the eastern Mediterranean Sea, Japan, and the western coast of Australia are subsiding. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is expected to provide a major contribution to the present-day signal. Aside from Fennoscandia, observed VGM often depart from the GIA model predictions of Peltier (2004). This either results from an underestimate of the model predictions or from the influence of other processes: indeed, the influence of the geodynamic setting appears in particular along the coasts of western North America or Japan, where the alternation of transform faults and subduction zones makes it possible to assign contrasted behaviours to the local geodynamic context. Local mechanisms like anthropogenic processes or sediment compaction, also contribute to VGM. This remains true for the critical cases of Venice, the Gulf of Mexico, the Ganges delta, and the Maldives, which are particularly exposed to the current sea level rise.  相似文献   

Variation in river multi-element chemistry related to bedrock buffering: an example from the Adirondack region of northern New York, USA     

Jeffrey Chiarenzelli  Robin Lock  Carol Cady  Adria Bregani  Benn Whitney 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,67(1):189-204

Water from four north-flowing rivers (Oswegatchie, Grasse, Raquette, and West Branch of the St. Regis) traversing three distinct geologic terranes (Adirondack Highlands, Adirondack Lowlands, St. Lawrence Valley), originating in the acidified northern Adirondack region, display rapid spatial changes in downriver multi-element chemistry and physical parameters. Downriver, most soluble elements increase (Ba, Ca, Cu, K, Mg, Na, Rb, S, and Sr) while statistically significant decreases in insoluble elements (Al, Ce, Dy, Er, Fe, Gd, La, Mn, Nd, Pr, and Y) also occur. Lithium, Si, and Zr did not show a consistent increasing or decreasing trend. Concentrations of most elements measured on June 5, 2008 were greater than 7?weeks later; however, greater discharge and lower pH enhanced Al concentrations occurred during the later sampling date. Elemental ratios track changes in lithology, anthropogenic influence, and pH. The Raquette River shows the least variation in elemental concentrations because of storage in numerous hydropower reservoirs and has non-detectable concentrations of some redox sensitive elements such as Co, Ni, and V. Oswegatchie tributaries display similar geochemical trends dependent upon their location and local bedrock and show geochemical trends along the trunks of major rivers that are also evident in smaller drainage basins. Comparison with analytical results from the Western Adirondack Stream Survey also indicates acidification is prevalent in the Adirondack Highlands, particularly in the Oswegatchie headwaters during periods of high flow, but acidity is rapidly buffered downriver due to interaction with marble in the Adirondack Lowlands.  相似文献   

Dissolution of calcitic marble and dolomitic rock in high iron concentrated acid mine drainage: application to anoxic limestone drains     

Thomas Genty  Bruno Bussière  Robin Potvin  Mostafa Benzaazoua  Gérald J. Zagury 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(8):2387-2401

Oxidation of sulphide mining waste can generate acid mine drainage (AMD) that has the potential to seriously affect the ecosystems. Acid mine drainage is characterised by a high acidity, high concentrations of sulphates and metals. To reduce the environmental impacts due to AMD, neutralisation using limestone drains is an option proposed in the literature and used around the world. The present study focuses on the influence of the carbonate rock mineralogy and their particle size on the neutralising capacity. The tests were performed in two different anoxic conditions: in batch reactors, and in columns having a hydraulic retention time of 15?h. The results showed that the neutralisation capacity of calcite was more important than for dolomitic rock, and smaller particle size gave higher alkalinity production (fine calcite dissolved faster in contact with AMD). A characterization of metal precipitate in sludge and in limestone coating was performed and demonstrated that gypsum, lepidocrocite and goethite were the predominant secondary minerals to be formed. Finally, this study underlines that anoxic limestone drain cannot be used alone to treat high iron concentrated AMD.  相似文献   

Developing coastal adaptation to climate change in the New York City infrastructure-shed: process, approach, tools, and strategies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cynthia Rosenzweig  William D. Solecki  Reginald Blake  Malcolm Bowman  Craig Faris  Vivien Gornitz  Radley Horton  Klaus Jacob  Alice LeBlanc  Robin Leichenko  Megan Linkin  David Major  Megan O��Grady  Lesley Patrick  Edna Sussman  Gary Yohe  Rae Zimmerman 《Climatic change》2011,106(1):93-127

While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be outside the range of current capacity because extreme events might cause flooding beyond today??s planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools for adaptation developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region??s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation framework and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder?Cscientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.  相似文献   

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in commercial fish and lobsters from the coastal waters of Madagascar following an oil spill in August 2009     

Rumney HS  Laruelle F  Potter K  Mellor PK  Law RJ 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(12):2859-2862

Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were determined in species of commercial fish and lobsters following an oil-spill just off the protected Madagascan coastline. Samples were collected along the coastline within and outside the affected area. Summed PAH concentrations ranged from 1.9 μg kg⁻¹ to 63 μg kg⁻¹ wet weight, but with no higher molecular weight PAHs (>202 Da) being detected. All concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene, benz[a]anthracene and dibenz[a,h]anthracene were <0.1 μg kg⁻¹ wet weight, well within the EU and UK set limits for the protection of human health. Additionally, samples were calculated as the benzo[a]pyrene toxic equivalency quotient (TEQ) and found to be well below the level of concern in relation to health of human consumers. Evaluation of the biota PAH data indicated the origin of PAH was predominantly petrogenic with >80% arising from oil sources. Profile studies indicate a low-level multisource petrogenic contamination probably representing a pre-spill background for the area.  相似文献   

Injustice: Why social inequality persists – By Daniel Dorling     

Robin Peace 《New Zealand geographer》2011,67(1):65-66

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Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediments,mussels and crustacea around a former gasworks site in Shoreham-by-Sea,UK     

Law RJ  Kelly CA  Baker KL  Langford KH  Bartlett T 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,44(9):903-911

Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons have been determined in sediments, mussels and crustacea in the vicinity of a former gasworks site by Shoreham Harbour, UK. Very high concentrations of PAH were found in the substrate, an ash-like material deposited on the former gasworks site, which exhibited a profile consistent with the major source of contamination being coal or coke tar produced during the period of gas production at the site. Elevated PAH concentrations were also found in mussels both from the beach below the former gasworks site, and from sites further to the east in Portslade and Hove. The significance of these concentrations were assessed using an approach which involved the calculation of benzo[a]pyrene equivalent conoentrations (BaPEs), summing concentrations of individual PAH on the basis of their comparative potency as carcinogens. BaPE ranged from values of, or close to, zero for crustacea, to 336 microg kg(-1) wet weight in mussels from Southwick Beach. The contaminated mussels are not exploited commercially but may be taken by casual gatherers, and notices have been posted to warn potential consumers.  相似文献   

Flux and dispersion of gases from the “Drachenschlund” hydrothermal vent at 8°18' S, 13°30' W on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge     

Robin S. Keir  Oliver Schmale  Maren Walter  Jürgen Sültenfuß  Richard Seifert  Monika Rhein 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,270(3-4):338-348

Hydrothermal emission of mantle helium appears to be directly related to magma production rate, but other processes can generate methane and hydrogen on mid-ocean ridges. In an on-going effort to characterize these processes in the South Atlantic, the flux and distribution of these gases were investigated in the vicinity of a powerful black smoker recently discovered at 8°17.9' S, 13°30.4' W. The vent lies on the shoulder of an oblique offset in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and discharges high concentrations of methane and hydrogen. Measurements during expeditions in 2004 and 2006 show that the ratio of CH₄ to ³He in the neutrally buoyant plume is quite high, 4 × 10⁸. The CTD stations were accompanied by velocity measurements with lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers (LADCP), and from these data we estimate the methane transport to have been 0.5 mol s^− 1 in a WSW-trending plume that seems to develop during the ebb tidal phase. This transport is an order of magnitude greater than the source of CH₄ calculated from its concentration in the vent fluid and the rise height of the plume. From this range of methane fluxes, the source of ³He is estimated to be between 0.14 and 1.2 nmol s^− 1. In either case, the ³He source is significantly lower than expected from the spreading rate of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. From the inventory of methane in the rift valley adjacent to the vent, it appears that the average specific rate of oxidation is 2.6 to 23 yr^− 1, corresponding to a turnover time between 140 and 16 days. Vertical profiles of methane in the surrounding region often exhibited Gaussian-like distributions, and the variances appear to increase with distance from the vent. Using a Gaussian plume model, we obtained a range of vertical eddy diffusivities between 0.009 and 0.08 m²m² s^− 1. These high values may be due to tidally driven internal waves across the promontory on which the vent is located.  相似文献   

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in oysters from coastal waters of the Lebanon 10 months after the Jiyeh oil spill in 2006     

Kelly C  Santillo D  Johnston P  Fayad G  Baker KL  Law RJ 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(6):1215-1218

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