Assessing vulnerability due to sea-level rise in Maui, Hawai‘i using LiDAR remote sensing and GIS     

Hannah M. Cooper  Qi Chen  Charles H. Fletcher  Matthew M. Barbee 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):547-563

Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens islands and coastal communities due to vulnerable infrastructure and populations concentrated in low-lying areas. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data were used to produce high-resolution DEMs (Digital Elevation Model) for Kahului and Lahaina, Maui, to assess the potential impacts of future SLR. Two existing LiDAR datasets from USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were compared and calibrated using the Kahului Harbor tide station. Using tidal benchmarks is a valuable approach for referencing LiDAR in areas lacking an established vertical datum, such as in Hawai‘i and other Pacific Islands. Exploratory analysis of the USACE LiDAR ground returns (point data classified as ground after the removal of vegetation and buildings) indicated that another round of filtering could reduce commission errors. Two SLR scenarios of 0.75 (best-case) to 1.9 m (worst-case) (Vermeer and Rahmstorf Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:21527–21532, 2009) were considered, and the DEMs were used to identify areas vulnerable to flooding. Our results indicate that if no adaptive strategies are taken, a loss ranging from $18.7 million under the best-case SLR scenario to $296 million under the worst-case SLR scenario for Hydrologically Connected (HC; marine inundation) and Hydrologically Disconnected (HD; drainage problems due to a higher water table) areas combined is possible for Kahului; a loss ranging from $57.5 million under the best-case SLR scenario to $394 million under the worst-case SLR scenario for HC and HD areas combined is possible for Lahaina towards the end of the century. This loss would be attributable to inundation between 0.55 km² to 2.13 km² of area for Kahului, and 0.04 km² to 0.37 km² of area for Lahaina.  相似文献   

A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Rosie Eade  Holger Pohlmann 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3325-3338

There are two main approaches for dealing with model biases in forecasts made with initialized climate models. In full-field initialization, model biases are removed during the assimilation process by constraining the model to be close to observations. Forecasts drift back towards the model’s preferred state, thereby re-establishing biases which are then removed with an a posterior lead-time dependent correction diagnosed from a set of historical tests (hindcasts). In anomaly initialization, the model is constrained by observed anomalies and deviates from its preferred climatology only by the observed variability. In theory, the forecasts do not drift, and biases may be removed based on the difference between observations and independent model simulations of a given period. Both approaches are currently in use, but their relative merits are unclear. Here we compare the skill of each approach in comprehensive decadal hindcasts starting each year from 1960 to 2009, made using the Met Office decadal prediction system. Both approaches are more skilful than climatology in most regions for temperature and some regions for precipitation. On seasonal timescales, full-field initialized hindcasts of regional temperature and precipitation are significantly more skilful on average than anomaly initialized hindcasts. Teleconnections associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation are stronger with the full-field approach, providing a physical basis for the improved precipitation skill. Differences in skill on multi-year timescales are generally not significant. However, anomaly initialization provides a better estimate of forecast skill from a limited hindcast set.  相似文献   

Comparison of the Energy Spectra and Number Fluxes From a simple Flare Model to Observations     

Iain G. Hannah  Lyndsay Fletcher 《Solar physics》2006,236(1):59-74

In this paper, we investigate the energy spectra produced by a simple test particle X-point model of a solar flare for different configurations of the initial electromagnetic field. We find that once the reconnection electric field is larger than 1 Vm^-1 the particle distribution transits from a heated one to a partially accelerated one. As we close the separatrices of the X-point and the angle in the inflow direction widens we find that more particles are accelerated out of the thermal distribution and this power–law component extends to lower energies. When we introduce a guiding magnetic field component we find that more particles are energised, but only up to a maximum energy dictated primarily by the reconnection electric field. Despite being able to accelerate particles to observable energies and demonstrate behaviour in the energy spectra that is consistent with observations, this single X-line model can only deliver the number fluxes required for microflares.  相似文献   

A Relationship Between Transition Region Brightenings,Abundances, and Magnetic Topology     

Fletcher  Lyndsay  López Fuentes  Marcelo C.  Mandrini  Cristina H.  Schmieder  Brigitte  Démoulin  Pascal  Mason  Helen E.  Young  Peter R.  Nitta  Nariaki 《Solar physics》2001,203(2):255-287

We present multi-instrument observations of active region (AR) 8048, made between 3 June and 5 June 1997, as part of the SOHO Joint Observing Program 33. This AR has a sigmoid-like global shape and undergoes transient brightenings in both soft X-rays and transition region (TR) lines. We compute a magneto-hydrostatic model of the AR magnetic field, using as boundary condition the photospheric observations of SOHO/MDI. The computed large-scale magnetic field lines show that the large-scale sigmoid is formed by two sets of coronal loops. Shorter loops, associated with the core of the SXT emission, coincide with the loops observed in the hotter CDS lines. These loops reveal a gradient of temperature, from 2 MK at the top to 1 MK at the ends. The field lines most closely matching these hot loops extend along the quasi-separatrix layers (QSLs) of the computed coronal field. The TR brightenings observed with SOHO/CDS can also be associated with the magnetic field topology, both QSL intersections with the photosphere, and places where separatrices issuing from bald patches (sites where field lines coming from the corona are tangent to the photosphere) intersect the photosphere. There are, furthermore, suggestions that the element abundances measured in the TR may depend on the type of topological structure present. Typically, the TR brightenings associated with QSLs have coronal abundances, while those associated with BP separatrices have abundances closer to photospheric values. We suggest that this difference is due to the location and manner in which magnetic reconnection occurs in two different topological structures. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1013302317042  相似文献   

The Magnetic Structure and Generation of EUV Flare Ribbons     

Fletcher  L.  Hudson  H. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):69-89

The `ribbons' of two-ribbon flares show complicated patterns reflecting the linkages of coronal magnetic field lines through the lower solar atmosphere. We describe the morphology of the EUV ribbons of the July 14, 2000 flare, as seen in SOHO, TRACE, and Yohkoh data, from this point of view. A successful co-alignment of the TRACE, SOHO/MDI and Yohkoh/HXT data has allowed us to locate the EUV ribbon positions on the underlying field to within ∼ 2′′, and thus to investigate the relationship between the ribbons and the field, and also the sites of electron precipitation. We have also made a determination of the longitudinal magnetic flux involved in the flare reconnection event, an important parameter in flare energetic considerations. There are several respects in which the observations differ from what would be expected in the commonly-adopted models for flares. Firstly, the flare ribbons differ in fine structure from the (line-of-sight) magnetic field patterns underlying them, apparently propagating through regions of very weak and probably mixed polarity. Secondly, the ribbons split or bifurcate. Thirdly, the amount of line-of-sight flux passed over by the ribbons in the negative and positive fields is not equal. Fourthly, the strongest hard X-ray sources are observed to originate in stronger field regions. Based on a comparison between HXT and EUV time-profiles we suggest that emission in the EUV ribbons is caused by electron bombardment of the lower atmosphere, supporting the hypothesis that flare ribbons map out the chromospheric footpoints of magnetic field lines newly linked by reconnection. We describe the interpretation of our observations within the standard model, and the implications for the distribution of magnetic fields in this active region.  相似文献   

Geological and SHRIMP II U-Pb constraints on the age and origin of the Breves Cu-Au-(W-Bi-Sn) deposit,Carajás,Brazil     

Fernando?Henrique?Bucco?TallaricoEmail author  Neal?Jesse?McNaughton  David?Ian?Groves  Ian?R.?Fletcher  Bernardino?Ribeiro?Figueiredo  Jéssica?Beatriz?Carvalho  José?Luzimar?Rego  Alfredo?Rossetto?Nunes 《Mineralium Deposita》2004,39(1):68-86

The Breves deposit in the Carajás Copper-Gold Belt, Brazil, a member of the Cu-Au-(W-Bi-Sn) group of deposits, contains about 50 Mt of 1.22% Cu, 0.75 g/t Au, 2.4 g/t Ag, 1,200 g/t W, 70 g/t Sn, 175 g/t Mo and 75 g/t Bi. It is hosted by sandstones and siltstones of the Águas Claras Formation (minimum age of 2,681±5 Ma) in the roof zone of a complex, highly altered granite intrusion. The mineralisation is disseminated in a greisenized zone, resulting from alteration of probable monzogranites and syenogranites. The ore-bearing greisen contains abundant xenomorphic quartz in association with Fe-chlorite and muscovite. The gangue assemblage also includes fluorite, tourmaline, and minor amounts of monazite, xenotime, chlorapatite, thorite, zircon, calcite, siderite and bastnäesite. Copper mineralisation is dominated by chalcopyrite associated with pyrite, arsenopyrite, pyrrhotite and molybdenite. Gold particles, in equilibrium with native bismuth, are common as inclusions in chalcopyrite. The greisen contains sub-economic concentrations of tungsten and niobium that are related to the presence of ferberite, qitianlingite and Nb-rutile. SHRIMP II zircon dating of the host granites gives ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages of 1,878±8 and 1,880±9 Ma for two phases, and a combined age of 1,879±6 Ma. SHRIMP II dating of monazite and xenotime grains in late- to post-mineralisation veins gives a combined ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age of 1,872±7 Ma, indistinguishable from the ages of the granites. This provides a genetic connection between the Breves deposit and the ca. 1.88 Ga A-type granite magmatism that typifies the Carajás Belt as part of a much larger, intracratonic magmatic province that extends over much of the Amazonian Craton. The recognition of this association has exploration implications, not only for the geophysical signature of the granite roof zones, but also for likely geochemical dispersion around the deposits of this type.Editorial handling: G. Beaudoin  相似文献   

Cost-effective infrastructure in a multi-antenna telescope layout     

Gabriel Grigorescu  Paul Alexander  Rosie C. Bolton  Roshene McCool 《Experimental Astronomy》2009,27(1-2):95-107

The future Square Kilometre Array (SKA) radio telescope is an interferometer array that will use a variety of collector types, including approximately 2500 dishes distributed with separations up to a few thousand kilometres, and about 250 aperture array (AA) stations located within 200 km of the core. The data rates associated with each individual collector are vast: around 10 GBytes/s for each dish and 2 TBytes/s for an AA station. As each of these must be connected directly to a central correlator, designing a cost-effective cabling and trenching infrastructure presents a great engineering challenge. In this paper we discuss approaches to performing this optimisation. In graph theory, the concept of a minimum spanning tree (MST) is equivalent to finding the minimum total trench length joining a set of n arbitrary points in the plane. We have developed a set of algorithms which optimise the infrastructure of any given telescope layout iteratively, taking into consideration not only trenching but also cabling and jointing costs as well. Solutions for few example configurations of telescope layout are presented. We have found that these solutions depend significantly on the collectors’ output data rates. When compared to a “traditional” MST-based approach which minimises trenching costs only, our algorithms can further reduce total costs by up to 15–20%. This can influence greatly the SKA infrastructure related costs.  相似文献   

A modified peak‐bagging technique for fitting low‐𝓁 solar p‐modes     

S.T. Fletcher  W.J. Chaplin  Y. Elsworth  R. New 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2008,329(5):447-452

We introduce a modified version of a standard power spectrum ‘peak‐bagging’ technique which is designed to gain some of the advantages that fitting the entire low‐degree p‐mode power spectrum simultaneously would bring, but without the problems involved in fitting a model incorporating many hundreds of parameters. Employing Monte‐Carlo simulations we show that by using this modified fitting code it is possible to determine the true background level in the vicinity of the p‐mode peaks. In addition to this we show how small biases in other mode parameters, which are related to inaccurate estimates of the true background, are also consequently removed. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

The visibility of low‐frequency solar acoustic modes     

A. M. Broomhall  W. J. Chaplin  Y. Elsworth  S. T. Fletcher 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2008,329(5):461-469

We make predictions of the detectability of low‐frequency p modes. Estimates of the powers and damping times of these low‐frequency modes are found by extrapolating the observed powers and widths of higher‐frequency modes with large observed signal‐to‐noise ratios. The extrapolations predict that the low‐frequency modes will have small signal‐to‐noise ratios and narrow widths in a frequency‐power spectrum. Monte Carlo simulations were then performed where timeseries containing mode signals and normally distributed Gaussian noise were produced. The mode signals were simulated to have the powers and damping times predicted by the extrapolations. Various statistical tests were then performed on the frequency‐amplitude spectra formed from these timeseries to investigate the fraction of spectra in which the modes could be detected. The results of these simulations were then compared to the number of p‐modes candidates observed in real Sun‐as‐a‐star data at low frequencies. The fraction of simulated spectra in which modes were detected decreases rapidly as the frequency of modes decreases and so the fraction of simulations in which the low‐frequency modes were detected was very small. However, increasing the signal‐to‐noise (S/N) ratio of the low‐frequency modes by a factor of 2 above the extrapolated values led to significantly more detections. Therefore efforts should continue to further improve the quality of solar data that is currently available. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

What is Moss?     

Berger  T.E.  De Pontieu  B.  Fletcher  L.  Schrijver  C.J.  Tarbell  T.D.  Title  A.M. 《Solar physics》1999,190(1-2):409-418

TRACE observations of active regions show a peculiar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission over certain plage areas. Termed `moss' for its spongy, low-lying, appearance, observations and modeling imply that the phenomenon is caused by thermal conduction from 3–5 MKcoronal loops overlying the plage: moss is the upper transition region emission of hot coronal loops. The spongy appearance is due to the presence of chromospheric jets or `spicules' interspersed with the EUV emission elements. High cadence TRACE observations show that the moss EUV elements interact with the chromospheric jets on 10 s time scales. The location of EUV emission in the moss does not correlate well to the locations of underlying magnetic elements in the chromosphere and photosphere, implying a complex magnetic topology for coronal loop footpoint regions. We summarize here the key observations leading to these conclusions and discuss new implications for understanding the structuring of the outer solar atmosphere. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005286503963  相似文献