Window technique for climate trend analysis     

Tamás Szentimrey  Tibor Faragó  Sándor Szalai 《Climate Dynamics》1992,6(3-4):127-134

Climatic characteristics are affected by various systematic and occasional impacts: besides the changes in the observing system (locations of the stations of the meteorological network, instruments, observing procedures), the possible local-scale and global natural and antropogenic impacts on climatic conditions should be taken into account. Apart from the predictability problems, the phenomenological analysis of the climatic variability and the determination of past persistent climatic anomalies are significant problems, among other aspects, as evidence of the possible anomalous behavior of climate or for climate impact studies. In this paper, a special technique for the identification of such shifts in the observational series is presented. The existence of these significant shorter or longer term changes in the mean characteristics for the properly selected adjoining periods of time is the necessary condition for the formation of any more or less unidirectional climatic trends. Actually, the window technique is based on a complete set of orthogonal functions. The sensitivity of the proposed model on its main parameters is also investigated. This method is applied for hemispheric and Hungarian data series of the mean annual surface temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program  相似文献   

Structure and oscillations in quiescent filaments from observations in He i λ10830 å     

Yi Zhang  Oddbjørn Engvold  Stephen L. Keil 《Solar physics》1991,132(1):63-80

Observations of two quiescent filaments show oscillatory variations in Doppler shift and central intensity of the He i 10830 Å line.The oscillatory periods range from about 5 to 15 min, with dominant periods of 5, 9, and 16 min. The 5-min period is also detected in the intensity variations, after correction for atmospheric effects. Doppler shifts precede intensity variations by about one period. The possibility that the oscillations are Alfvén waves is discussed.The Doppler signals of the filament form fibril-like structures. The fibrils are all inclined at an angle of about 25° to the long axis of the filament. The magnetic field has a similar orientation relative to the major direction of the filament, and the measured Doppler signals are apparently produced by motions along magnetic flux tubes threading the filament.The measured lifetimes of the small-scale fibrils of quiescent disk filaments are very likely a combined effect of intensity modulations and reshuffling of the structures.  相似文献   

Distribution of lunar impacts by objects in parabolic low inclination orbits     

Nils Aall Barricelli  Ragnar Thorbjørnsen 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1978,18(4):479-490

This paper presents a computer investigation extending to the case of parabolic orbits, an earlier investigation conducted by Barricelli and Metcalfe (1969) on lunar impacts by external low eccentricity satellites as a means to interpret the asymmetric distribution of lunar maria. Parabolic orbits can be approximated by two kinds of objects:

1. High eccentricity external satellites may, near periapsis, approach the Moon with orbital velocity and other characteristics closely resembling those of a parabolic orbit.
2. Asteroids and meteoroids approaching the Earth-Moon system with a low velocity may have moved in a nearly parabolic orbit when they reached the lunar distance from the Earth at the time when the impacts which carved the lunar maria took place.

The investigation gives, therefore, not only additional information relevant to the interpretation of the distribution of lunar maria by the satellite impacts hypothesis (in this case high eccentricity ones), but also information about the alternative hypothesis (Wood, 1973) that asteroid impacts rather than satellite impacts were involved.  相似文献   

The fine structure of prominences     

Oddbjørn Engvold 《Solar physics》1976,49(2):283-295

The fine structure of nonspot prominences are studied from H filtergrams. The size of the smallest prominence structures increases with height above the chromosphere. Some prominences contain structures close to 1/2 arc second, which is the spatial resolution in the present data. The effective thickness of many nonspot prominences ranges between 4 × 10⁷ cm and 1.5 × 10⁸ cm. An apparent downward directed motion is observed in the majority of the prominences. No preferred direction of the motion is seen in regions composed of comparatively large diffuse structures. Some bright threads are visible for 1 hr and longer. Bright knots have an average observed lifetime of about 8 min. The process of condensation and subsequent destruction of prominence fine structure appears to take place on a very short time scale compared to the life time of the regions where prominences may exist. The observed H brightness of the prominences in the present data may be accounted for as scattered chromospheric radiation.  相似文献   

Modeling nonlinear seagrass clonal growth: Assessing the efficiency of space occupation across the seagrass flora     

Tomàs Sintes  Núria Marbà  Carlos M. Duarte 《Estuaries and Coasts》2006,29(1):72-80

The clonal growth of 9 seagrass species was modeled using a simulation model based on observed clonal growth rules (i.e., spacer length, rhizome elongation rates, branching rates, branching angle) and shoot mortality rates for seagrass species. The results of the model confirmed the occurrence of complex, nonlinear growth of seagrass clones derived from internal dynamics of space occupation. The modeled clones progressed from a diffuse-limited aggregation (DLA), dendritic growth, identified with a guerrilla strategy of space occupation, to a compact (Eden) growth, comparable to the phalanx strategy of space occupation, once internal recolonization of gaps, left by dead shoots within the clone, begins. The time at which seagrass clones shifted from diffuse limited to compact growth was predictable from the branching angle and frequency of the species and varied from 1 yr to several decades among species. As a consequence the growth behavior and the apparent growth strategy of the species changes with the development of the clones. The results of the model demonstrate that the emergent complexity of seagrass clonal growth is contained within the simple set of growth rules that can be used to represent clonal growth.  相似文献   

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal     

Joo Carvalho  Joo Cabral  Rui Gonalves  Luís Torres  Luís Mendes-Victor 《Tectonophysics》2006,418(3-4):277-297

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.  相似文献   

Climate variability in the Spanish Pyrenees during the last 30,000 yr revealed by the El Portalet sequence     

P. González-Sampériz  B.L. Valero-Garcés  G. Jalut  C. Martí-Bono  A. Navas  J.J. Dedoubat 《Quaternary Research》2006,66(1):38-52

Palynological, sedimentological and stable isotopic analyses of carbonates and organic matter performed on the El Portalet sequence (1802 m a.s.l., 42°48′00?N, 0°23′52?W) reflect the paleoclimatic evolution and vegetation history in the central-western Spanish Pyrenees over the last 30,000 yr, and provide a high-resolution record for the late glacial period. Our results confirm previous observations that deglaciation occurred earlier in the Pyrenees than in northern European and Alpine sites and point to a glacial readvance from 22,500 to 18,000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the global last glacial maximum. The patterns shown by the new, high-resolution pollen data from this continental sequence, chronologically constrained by 13 AMS ¹⁴C dates, seem to correlate with the rapid climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Abrupt events observed in northern latitudes (Heinrich events 3 to 1, Oldest and Older Dryas stades, Intra-Allerød Cold Period, and 8200 cal yr BP event) were also identified for the first time in a lacustrine sequence from the central-western Pyrenees as cold and arid periods. The coherent response of the vegetation and the lake system to abrupt climate changes implies an efficient translation of climate variability from the North Atlantic to mid latitudes.  相似文献   

T-distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1     

Jo Røislien  Henning Omre 《Mathematical Geosciences》2006,38(7):821-849

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Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Marijke Huysmans  Tamás Madarász  Alain Dassargues 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(2):180-193

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.  相似文献   

Interpretation of subhorizontal crustal reflections by metamorphic and rheologic effects in the eastern part of the Pannonian Basin     

Károly Posgay  Tamás Bodoky  Zoltán Hajnal  Tivadar M. Tóth  Tamás Fancsik  Endre Heged&#;s  Attila Cs. Kovács  Ern&#; Takács 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(1):187-203

The geologic origin of subhorizontal reflections, often observed in crustal seismic sections, was investigated by establishing metamorphic facies and strength of rocks in depth, and correlating these properties to seismic reflection sections from eastern Hungary. Estimation of the depths of metamorphic mineral stability zones utilized the principles developed by Fyfe et al. and known geothermal data of the area. The strength versus depth profile was derived by relating local seismic P -wave interval velocities to Meissner et al. 's activation energy. The results show that the series of subhorizontal reflections, observed in the Pannonian Basin, are a consequence of combined metamorphic and rheologic changes in depths. The synthesis of the integrated data set suggests that the retrograde alteration of the pre-Tertiary basement above the percolation threshold was made possible by the softening effect of shear zones and their water-conducting capacity. The subhorizontal reflections of highest energy, of the consolidated crust below the percolation threshold, originate in the depths of greenschist, amphibolite and granulite metamorphic mineral facies, which were formed in geothermal and pressure conditions similar to those existing today. These results imply the overprint of earlier (Variscan) metamorphic sequences of the crust by more recent retrograde metamorphic processes.  相似文献