ARIMA-LSTM组合模型在基于SPI干旱预测中的应用——以青海省为例          下载免费PDF全文

张建海  张棋  许德合  丁严 《干旱区地理》2020,43(4):1004-1013

开展干旱预测是有效应对干旱风险的前提基础。利用1958—2017年青海省38个气象站点逐日降水量数据计算多尺度标准化降水指数（SPI）,并建立了SPI序列自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）、长短时记忆神经网络模型（LSTM）和基于二者优点提出的ARIMA-LSTM组合模型;对模型参数进行率定和验证后,利用所建立的模型,以西宁站点为例,对多尺度SPI值进行预测,借助均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）和决定系数R²对所有预测模型的有效性进行判定。结果表明：ARIMA-LSTM组合模型在SPI1和SPI12的RMSE值分别为0.159 7和0.181 0,均低于ARIMA模型的1.265 4和0.293 3,说明ARIMA模型与ARIMA-LSTM组合模型对SPI的预测精度都与时间尺度有关,ARIMA模型的预测精度随着时间尺度的增加而逐渐提高;结合GIS并利用实测数据与模型的预测数据相比较说明ARIMA-LSTM组合模型相比于单一ARIMA模型的预测精度更高,且能够很好拟合不同时间尺度的SPI值。  相似文献   

今天的中国为什么比任何时候都需要世界地理学   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

秦大河  张国友  宋长青  金凤君  薛德升  杜德斌  陆玉麒  苗长虹  葛岳静  吴志峰  刘建忠  张振克  刘云刚  宁越敏  效存德  王荣成  陈俊华  李娟  胡志丁 《世界地理研究》2020,29(1):1-7

世界地理作为中国地理学的重要分支学科,特指研究中国以外区域或国家的地理学科,是中国特有的学科分类现象。中国地理学的这种内外有别的思想对世界地理发展危害甚大,至今都难以消弭。忽视世界地理研究,就会有只见树木、不见森林之虞。为了贯彻落实党的“十九大”精神,繁荣探索新型科研组织机制,打造一流世界地理学科,服务国家重大国际战略需求,来自国内高校、科研院所的百余人齐聚一堂,探讨中国世界地理学科发展之路。与会专家一致认为：地理学是国家发展的法宝,是立国之本。当前世界政治经济格局加速重构,为中国地理学发展带来了前所未有的历史机遇,也赋予地理学特别是世界地理学学科新的重大历史使命。为此,须充分发挥地理学科的优势和特长,紧跟国家和世界发展大势,树立全球眼光,面向国家重大战略需求,把自然与人文结合起来,面向可持续发展,团结国内各相关单位,进行跨学科研究,提升世界地理学科为二级学科,构建具有中国特色的世界地理学理论体系、逻辑框架和学科范式,提升中国地理学科,特别是世界地理学科服务国家和地方发展的能力。  相似文献   

社区生活圈的新时间地理学研究框架   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

柴彦威  李春江  张艳 《地理科学进展》2020,39(12):1961-1971

社区生活圈从居民日常活动及行为视角考察城市社区,是城市地理学和城市相关学科的研究前沿,也是中国国土空间规划体系创新的重要组成部分,以及中国城市社会可持续发展的重要抓手。伴随着流动性和信息化的不断深入,社区生活圈的主体日益多元化、社区活动和居民时空行为日益多样化、社区空间的功能与意义日益丰富化,亟需城市地理学的研究创新与实践引导。时间地理学是理解人与环境关系的社会—技术—生态综合方法,为早期基于时空行为与生活空间的社区生活圈研究提供了重要基础。新时间地理学重视家庭及其他组织企划的交互与时空组合,可为社区生活圈内个体—家庭—社区之间的复杂互动关系研究、时空行为的社会文化制约与多情境分析及模拟提供重要支撑。论文基于新时间地理学方法,从理论、方法和实证3个维度提出社区生活圈的新时间地理学研究框架,具体包括构建社区生活圈的时空行为理论,揭示社区生活圈的时空间结构;创新社区生活圈的时空行为分析和模拟方法;从社区生活圈时空行为优化、社区交往生活圈、社区安全生活圈等方面创新中国城市规划与管理等研究内容。  相似文献   

“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素     

宋周莺  祝巧玲 《地理科学进展》2020,39(11):1785-1797

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：① 中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。② 中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③ 中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④ 中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤ 中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。  相似文献   

全球粮食安全格局的时空演化     

蔡建明  马恩朴  林静  廖柳文  韩燕 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(2):179-196

Food security is the primary prerequisite for achieving other Millennium Development Goals(MDGs).Given that the MDG of“halving the proportion of hungers by 2015”was not realized as scheduled,it will be more pressing and challenging to reach the goal of zero hunger by 2030.So there is high urgency to find the pattern and mechanism of global food security from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution.In this paper,based on the analysis of database by using a multi-index evaluation method and radar map area model,the global food security level for 172 countries from 2000 to 2014 were assessed;and then spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to depict the spatial patterns and changing characteristics of global food security;then,multi-nonlinear regression methods were employed to identify the factors affecting the food security patterns.The results show:1)The global food security pattern can be summarized as“high-high aggregation,low-low aggregation”.The most secure countries are mainly distributed in Western Europe,North America,Oceania and parts of East Asia.The least secure countries are mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia and West Asia,and parts of Southeast Asia.2)Europe and sub-Saharan Africa are hot and cold spots of the global food security pattern respectively,while in non-aggregation areas,Haiti,North Korea,Tajikistan and Afghanistan have long-historical food insecurity problems.3)The pattern of global food security is generally stable,but the internal fluctuations in the extremely insecure groups were significant.The countries with the highest food insecurity are also the countries with the most fluctuated levels of food security.4)The annual average temperature,per capita GDP,proportion of people accessible to clean water,political stability and non-violence levels are the main factors influencing the global food security pattern.Research shows that the status of global food security has improved since the year 2000,yet there are still many challenges such as unstable global food security and acute regional food security issues.It will be difficult to understand these differences from a single factor,especially the annual average temperature and annual precipitation.The abnormal performance of the above factors indicates that appropriate natural conditions alone do not absolutely guarantee food security,while the levels of agricultural development,the purchasing power of residents,regional accessibility,as well as political and economic stability have more direct influence.  相似文献   

The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States,Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

YUAN Lihua  SONG Changqing  CHENG Changxiu  SHEN Shi  CHEN Xiaoqiang  WANG Yuanhui 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(10):1702-1720

The United States, Russia and China are militarily and economically among the most powerful countries in the post-Cold War period, and the interactions between the three powers heavily influence the international system. However, different conclusions about this question are generally made by researchers through qualitative analysis, and it is necessary to objectively and quantitatively investigate their interactions. Monthly-aggregated event data from the Global Data on Events, Location and Tone(GDELT) to measure cooperative and conflictual interactions between the three powers, and the complementary cumulative distribution function(CCDF) and the vector autoregression(VAR) method are utilized to investigate their interactions in two periods: January, 1991 to September, 2001, and October, 2001 to December, 2016. The results of frequencies and strengths analysis showed that: the frequencies and strengths of USA-China interactions slightly exceeded those of USA-Russia interactions and became the dominant interactions in the second period. Although that cooperation prevailed in the three dyads in two periods, the conflictual interactions between the USA and Russia tended to be more intense in the second period, mainly related to the strategic contradiction between the USA and Russia, especially in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria. The results of CCDF indicated that similar probabilities in the cooperative behaviors between the three dyads, but the differences in the probabilities of conflictual behaviors in the USA-Russia dyad showed complicated characteristic, and those between Russia and China indicated that Russia had been consistently giving China a hard time in both periods when dealing with conflict. The USA was always an essential factor in affecting the interactions between Russia and China in both periods, but China's behavior only played a limited role in influencing the interactions between the USA-Russia dyad. Our study provides quantitative insight into the direct cooperative and conflictual interactions between the three dyads since the end of the Cold War and helps to understand their interactions better.  相似文献   

Changes in agricultural virtual water in Central Asia, 1992–2016     

Yan  Ziyan  Tan  Minghong 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(11):1909-1920

Journal of Geographical Sciences - In recent years, flows of many rivers and lakes have become reduced in arid and semi-arid regions around the world. The most typical examples of this phenomenon...  相似文献   

海南岛海岸带土地利用强度与生态承载力分析     

李通  闫敏  陈博伟  张丽  宋茜茜 《测绘通报》2020,(9):54-59

随着海南省进一步开放发展,海岸带区域的土地利用强度逐渐加强,生态保护需求日益增强。利用4期（1990、2000、2009、2015年）海岸带土地利用分类数据,研究海岸带土地开发利用强度,并分析了其生态承载力。结果表明：①耕地和林地是海南岛海岸带地区的主要土地类型。②25年间,海南岛海岸带土地利用强度整体较高且逐年上升,2000—2009年土地利用强度增速最高,达2.03%;海口市和澄迈县土地利用强度4期均值最大,分别为300.5和286.1。③25年来海南岛海岸带生态状况呈下降趋势,57%的海岸带市县实际生态承载压力增长了1倍以上。  相似文献   

基于三维激光扫描技术的钢结构扰度检测及应用     

宋云记  王晓民  王智 《测绘通报》2020,(12):160-163

钢结构在长期荷载及不均匀受力的作用下会产生空间变形,其中扰度是其重要的衡量指标。通常采用全站仪采集钢结构轴线上若干特征点进行分析、计算,由于钢结构特征点难以捕捉,测量存在误差,并且有限的空间离散点难以全面反应钢结构空间变形。本文采用徕卡RTC360三维激光扫描进行钢结构扰度测量;介绍了其作业流程及数据处理方法;利用标靶将各个测站的三维点云拼接成一个整体;采用拟合的方法提取空间特征点及轴线;利用三维点云构建空间模型,并与设计模型进行碰撞分析;可全面地反映钢结构的空间变形情况。  相似文献   

姿态修正技术在黄河河口测验中的应用     

宋中华  田慧  王静 《测绘通报》2020,(11):120-123

为了解决黄河三角洲附近海区测验中测船姿态对单波束数字测深数据的影响,本文利用姿态传感器对测船的姿态进行了有效改正。试验结果表明,姿态修正技术对数字测深仪瞬时水深进行改正后,其测深结果与传统的人工水深曲线改正后成果比较,中误差为0.089 m,试验段面0 m线以下面积相差不超过0.22%,符合国家规范要求,提高了海区测验中测深成果的精度,为数字技术在海区测量的应用提供了技术保证。  相似文献