Method for calibrating a theoretical model in karst springs: an example for a hydropower station in South China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Mingming Luo  Zhihua Chen  Robert E. Criss  Hong Zhou  Hamza Jakada  Tingting Shi 《水文研究》2016,30(25):4815-4825

A theoretical, dimensionless rainfall–runoff model was used to simulate the discharge of Wulongdong spring in western Hubei province, South China. The single parameter (time constant τ) in the model is easy to obtain by fitting the recession rate of the observed hydrographs. The model was scaled by simply matching the total annual flow volume of the model to the observed value. Annual distribution of actual evapotranspiration was embedded in the model input to calculate the accumulated deficit of soil moisture before each rain event. Hourly precipitation input data performed better than daily data, defining τ of 0.85 days and returning a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.89 and the root mean square error of 0.07. This model offers an effective way to simulate the discharge of karst springs that respond sensitively to rainfall events. The model parameters of a successful simulation can be used to estimate the recharge area and indicate the intrinsic response time of the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

贵阳台钻孔应变观测干扰情况分析     

李鹏  冯琼松  贾华  师娅芳 《国际地震动态》2016,(4):33-38

贵阳台钻孔应变已连续观测8年,观测数据准确、可靠,内精度高,广泛应用于地壳形变、地震预报等科学研究。正确识别观测中的正常、干扰、异常变化是有效进行预报科研的基础。开展前兆观测数据短临跟踪分析工作以来,贵阳台加强观测数据跟踪处理,取得了许多经验,现将各类观测曲线干扰图象进行整理,以便同行进行学习交流,更好地做好仪器运维及短临跟踪分析工作。  相似文献   

Contribution of climatic and technological factors to crop yield: empirical evidence from late paddy rice in Hunan Province,China   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Zhu Wang  Tao Ye  Jun Wang  Zhuo Cheng  Peijun Shi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(7):2019-2030

Climatic and technological factors are two remarkable aspects that are thought to contribute to crop yield change. However, the most significant factors and their contribution rate remain debatable. Selecting Hunan Province, which is one of the largest paddy rice producing regions in China as the research area, the marginal contributions of climatic and technological factors to late paddy yield change are estimated using a county-level panel data regression model with explicit consideration of technological variables during 2000–2011. The results indicate that the mean daily temperature and adoption rate of hybrid rice have significant positive impacts on late paddy rice yield. During the research period, 1 °C temperature increase will cause 7.220 t/km² increase in late paddy rice yield, and 1 % increase in the adoption rate of hybrid rice will cause 0.212 t/km² increase. Climatic factors, especially their annual variability, exhibit a stronger overall linkage to changes in late paddy rice yield in the study area compared with the technological factors. Climatic factors accounted for 67.645 and 74.585 % of the trend and variability in late paddy rice yield, respectively. The results of this study can provide valuable information for stakeholders to adjust the input on late paddy rice production and better adapt to the effect of climate change.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events during 1951–2011 in Shandong,China and possible connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation     

Tao Gao  Xiaohui Shi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(5):1421-1440

Analyses of the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation extremes defined by eleven extreme precipitation indices in Shandong were conducted by utilizing the methods of linear regression, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and Mann–Kendall test. The results revealed that statistically significant decreasing trends existed for almost all extreme precipitation indices except for the consecutive dry days (CDD) and simple daily intensity index. A periodicity of 10–15 years for precipitation extremes is detected by EEMD analysis. Greatest 5-day total rainfall (RX5day), very wet days (R95p) and annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) experienced decreasing trends in the region stretching from the southeast coast to the west, while the spatial distribution of the decreasing trends for other indices was more complicated. Moreover, the frequency of occurrence in precipitation extremes at Changdao station, surrounded by the sea in the northeast region, increased in contrast to surrounding stations. This may suggest a possible effect from the local marine environment on extreme precipitation. In addition, the stations with statistically significant positive trends for CDD were mainly located in mid-west Shandong and along the southeast coast, where the extreme precipitation and total rainfall were, on the contrary, characterized by decreasing trends. These results indicate that drought or severe drought events have become more frequent in those regions. Analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes indicates that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation and increasing geopotential height as well as decreasing strength of monsoonal flow in recent decades may have contributed to the variations in extreme precipitation in Shandong.  相似文献   

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes associated with prominent ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes trends during 1958–2013     

Hu Yang  Jiping Liu  Gerrit Lohmann  Xiaoxu Shi  Yongyun Hu  Xueen Chen 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(3):353-365

Three prominent features of ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes (THF) trends during 1958–2013 are identified based on the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data set. The associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes are further investigated based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. First, the THF are enhanced over the mid-latitude expansions of the subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs). An intensified oceanic heat transport, forced by stronger near-surface zonal wind, is likely to be the cause of such THF tendency. Second, the THF are reduced over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, which is primarily caused by the decreasing near-surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST), associated with a local coupled ocean-atmosphere cooling mode. Finally, the THF are reduced over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is attributed to the decreasing air-sea humidity and temperature differences as a result of the convergence of near-surface air and the divergence of ocean currents (upwelling).  相似文献   

Semi-supervised least squares support vector machine algorithm: application to offshore oil reservoir     

Wei-Ping Luo  Hong-Qi Li  Ning Shi 《应用地球物理》2016,13(2):406-415

At the early stages of deep-water oil exploration and development, fewer and further apart wells are drilled than in onshore oilfields. Supervised least squares support vector machine algorithms are used to predict the reservoir parameters but the prediction accuracy is low. We combined the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) algorithm with semi-supervised learning and established a semi-supervised regression model, which we call the semi-supervised least squares support vector machine (SLSSVM) model. The iterative matrix inversion is also introduced to improve the training ability and training time of the model. We use the UCI data to test the generalization of a semi-supervised and a supervised LSSVM models. The test results suggest that the generalization performance of the LSSVM model greatly improves and with decreasing training samples the generalization performance is better. Moreover, for small-sample models, the SLSSVM method has higher precision than the semi-supervised K-nearest neighbor (SKNN) method. The new semisupervised LSSVM algorithm was used to predict the distribution of porosity and sandstone in the Jingzhou study area.  相似文献   

Experiment study on RC frame retrofitted by the external structure     

Chunyang Liu  Junji Shi  Kuramoto Hiroshi  Takashi Taguchi  Takashi Kamiya 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2016,15(3):563-574

A new retrofitting method is proposed herein for reinforced concrete (RC) structures through attachment of an external structure. The external structure consists of a fiber concrete encased steel frame, connection slab and transverse beams. The external structure is connected to the existing structure through a connection slab and transverse beams. Pseudostatic experiments were carried out on one unretrofitted specimen and three retrofitted frame specimens. The characteristics, including failure mode, crack pattern, hysteresis loops behavior, relationship of strain and displacement of the concrete slab, are demonstrated. The results show that the load carrying capacity is obviously increased, and the extension length of the slab and the number of columns within the external frame are important influence factors on the working performance of the existing structure. In addition, the displacement difference between the existing structure and the outer structure was caused mainly by three factors: shear deformation of the slab, extraction of transverse beams, and drift of the conjunction part between the slab and the existing frame. Furthermore, the total deformation determined by the first two factors accounted for approximately 80% of the damage, therefore these factors should be carefully considered in engineering practice to enhance the effects of this new retrofitting method.  相似文献   

村镇隔震砌体结构振动台试验方案设计研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

郑瑶  侍雪雷  王毅红  张又超  靳娜 《震灾防御技术》2016,11(2):297-305

为使铅芯橡胶支座隔震技术应用于村镇砌体结构,将隔震层设置于地坪以上,本文给出了隔震构造的具体做法。选取典型村镇2层未设构造柱的砖砌体结构房屋为试验原型,按1:2缩尺,设计有隔震层和无隔震层的振动台对比试验。首先采用反应谱分析方法,对隔震和非隔震结构分别选取三条地震波,然后通过数值分析,研究隔震和非隔震结构在输入不同地震波时的地震反应规律,根据数值模拟的分析结果设计结构振动台试验中的传感器布置和加载方案。本文设计的砌体隔震振动台试验方案已试验成功,可为振动台试验设计和研究提供参考。  相似文献   

大庆长垣西缘断裂浅部构造特征     

邓小娟  赵斌  石金虎  酆少英  秦晶晶 《震灾防御技术》2016,11(2):218-229

大庆石油物探资料结果表明,大庆长垣西缘断裂的上盘,即东侧的北西向断裂可能存在第四纪活动断裂。为了确定大庆长垣西缘断裂的空间展布以及该区的地壳浅部地质构造特征,本项研究布设了2条跨大庆长垣西缘断裂的浅层地震探测剖面。结果表明,大庆长垣西缘断裂表现为走向北东、倾向南东的逆断层,为一条中生代晚期活动断裂。断裂的上盘,即东侧发育有一系列次级断裂,断裂的断层性质以及断层倾向多样化,两条测线东部均发育错断第四纪地层的断层,使得该区浅部地层形成地堑与地垒构造。本项研究不仅可进一步提高对大庆长垣地区浅部构造特征的认识,而且为大庆市地震危险性评价提供依据。  相似文献   

Review of snow water equivalent microwave remote sensing   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

JianCheng Shi  Chuan Xiong  LingMei Jiang 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2016,59(4):731-745

Accurate quantitative global scale snow water equivalent information is crucial for meteorology, hydrology, water cycle and global change studies, and is of great importance for snow melt-runoff forecast, water resources management and flood control. With land surface process model and snow process model, the snow water equivalent can be simulated with certain accuracy, with the forcing data as input. However, the snow water equivalent simulated using the snow process models has large uncertainties spatially and temporally, and it may be far from the needs of practical applications. Thus, the large scale snow water equivalent information is mainly from remote sensing. Beginning with the launch of Nimbus-7 satellite, the research on microwave snow water equivalent remote sensing has developed for more than 30 years, researchers have made progress in many aspects, including the electromagnetic scattering and emission modeling, ground and airborne experiments, and inversion algorithms for future global high resolution snow water equivalent remote sensing program. In this paper, the research and progress in the aspects of electromagnetic scattering/emission modeling over snow covered terrain and snow water equivalent inversion algorithm will be summarized.  相似文献