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121.

Background

Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.

Results

All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.

Conclusions

No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.
  相似文献   
122.
Contemporary precipitation patterns in the Caribbean region are spatially variable, and the small number of Holocene paleoclimatic records may not adequately capture patterns of variation in the past. The hydrological history of Grenada was inferred from paleolimnological analyses of sediment cores from two crater lakes on the island. The basins were formed by volcanic activity some time during the Last Termination, but were dry between ca. 13 000 and ca. 7200 cal. a BP. After filling, the lakes were initially very shallow, and sedimentation was interrupted by a hiatus ca. 6300–5500 cal. a BP, followed by deposition of a thick tephra in both sites. After 5500 cal. a BP, lake level shows considerable multi‐centennial variability, superimposed upon a long‐term trend of generally higher lake level after 3200 cal. a BP. The pattern of lake‐level variation in Grenada shows some similarity with other Caribbean paleoclimatic records in terms of the timing of transitions, but differs from several classic studies in the sign of inferred precipitation change. The differences among records may reflect spatially variable precipitation patterns in the past in response to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and to sea surface temperature influences on the trade winds and Caribbean low‐level jet. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
123.
We present a combined 3-D geoelectric and seismic tomography study conducted on the large Åknes rockslide in western Norway. Movements on the slope are strongly influenced by water infiltration, such that the hydrogeological regime is considered as a critical factor affecting the slope stability. The aim of our combined geophysical study was to identify and visualize the main shallow tension fractures and to determine their effect on hydraulic processes by comparing the geophysical results with information from borehole logging and tracer tests. To resolve the complex subsurface conditions of the highly fractured rock mass, a three-dimensional set-up was chosen for our seismic survey. To map the water distribution within the rock mass, a pattern of nine intersecting 2-D geoelectric profiles covered the complete unstable slope. Six of them that crossed the seismic survey area were considered as a single data set in a 3-D inversion. For both methods, smoothing-constraint inversion algorithms were used, and the forward calculations and parameterizations were based on unstructured triangular meshes. A pair of parallel shallow low-velocity anomalies (< 1400 m/s) observed in the final seismic tomogram was immediately underlain by two anomalies with resistivities <13 kΩm in the resistivity tomogram. In combination with borehole logging results, the low-velocity and resistivity anomalies could be associated with the drained and water-filled part of the tension fractures, respectively. There were indications from impeller flowmeter measurements and tracer tests that such tension fractures intersected several other water-filled fractures and were responsible for distinct changes of the main groundwater flow paths.  相似文献   
124.
125.
Coastal areas of the world are under treat due to the conflicting requirements of functions such as habitation and/or recreation, which affect the strategic asset of coastal scenery itself. Coastal managers, together with planners, need coastal landscape inventories, where the quality of coastal scenery is a part of the inventory. In order to provide an evidence-based approach for sound coastal management decisions, [Ergin et al., 2004] and [Ergin et al., 2006] developed a novel technique ‘coastal scenic evaluation’ (CSE), which addresses the evaluation of coastal scenery. The CSE technique utilizes fuzzy logic to derive values obtained from a checklist of 26 physical and human parameters. The methodology enables the calculation of an evaluation index (D), which categorizes the scenic values of coastal sites into five distinct classes. Using this technique, coastal scenic evaluations were carried out at 34 selected sites on the Western Black Sea coast of Turkey. Based on the calculated D values, a five-class differentiation was obtained for the selected sites, to provide baseline information for any envisaged subsequent management plans for these areas.  相似文献   
126.
The major scope of the study is the assessment of landslide susceptibility of Flysch areas including the Penninic Klippen in the Vienna Forest (Lower Austria) by means of Geographical Information System (GIS)-based modelling. A statistical/probabilistic method, referred to as Weights-of-Evidence (WofE), is applied in a GIS environment in order to derive quantitative spatial information on the predisposition to landslides. While previous research in this area concentrated on local geomorphological, pedological and slope stability analyses, the present study is carried out at a regional level. The results of the modelling emphasise the relevance of clay shale zones within the Flysch formations for the occurrence of landslides. Moreover, the distribution of mass movements is closely connected to the fault system and nappe boundaries. An increased frequency of landslides is observed in the proximity to drainage lines, which can change to torrential conditions after heavy rainfall. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility is enhanced on N-W facing slopes, which are exposed to the prevailing direction of wind and rainfall. Both of the latter geofactors indirectly show the major importance of the hydrological conditions, in particular, of precipitation and surface runoff, for the occurrence of mass movements in the study area. Model performance was checked with an independent validation set of landslides, which are not used in the model. An area of 15% of the susceptibility map, classified as highly susceptible, “predicted” 40% of the landslides.  相似文献   
127.
128.
The ability of turbulent nuées ardentes (surges) to transport coarse pyroclasts has been questioned on the basis that settling velocities of coarse fragments in the deposits are much too high for them to have been supported by turbulence in a dilute gas suspension. A computer model is used to evaluate the settling velocity of pyroclasts in suspensions of varying concentration and temperature. Since suspension of grains in low-concentration surges occurs if the shear velocity exceeds the settling velocity, the shear velocities related to the 16th and 84th percentiles, and the mean of the grain-size distribution are compared in surge deposits of the Vulsini, with the shear velocity necessary to move the coarsest grain on the bed surface (the Shields criterion). The results show that the settling velocities do not vary significantly in gaseous suspensions having volume concentrations lower than 15%, and that an increase in concentration to 25% is not sufficient to decrease the settling velocity of the coarser fraction, if it represents flow shear velocity. It is shown that the settling velocity of the mean grain size (M z ) best depicts the shear velocity of a dilute turbulent suspension. Applying the results to the May 1902 paroxysmal nuées ardentes of Mount Pelée shows that the estimated mean velocities are well within the observed velocities, and sufficient to support all the clasts in dilute, turbulent suspensions.  相似文献   
129.
Lake Pontchartrain., Louisiana is a 1,630 km2 shallow brackish lagoon with a mean salinity from 1.2‰ in the west to 5.4‰ in the east., The construction of a 120 km long deep-water connection to the Gulf of Mexico in 1963, was expected to cause a 5‰ increase in lagoon salinity. However, the actual increase was everywhere in the lagoon less than 2‰ Analysis of 31 years of daily salinity and discharge records indicates that discharge is the most important factor controlling salinity variations in Lake Pontchartrain., Seventy-four percent of low-frequency salinity variations are explained by freshwater discharge and the completion of the deep-water canal. Lake Pont.-chartrain experiences annual variations of salinity as high as 8‰ This salinity signal has remained constant since the beginning of the salinity records in 1946. It appears that the deep-water canal is not responsible for observed die-back of freshwater swamps and retreat of lagoon shorelines.  相似文献   
130.
A general model for the structural state of iron in a variety of silicate and aluminosilicate glass compositions in the systems Na2O-Al2O3-SiO2-Fe-O, CaO-Al2O3-SiO2-Fe-O, and MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-Fe-O is proposed. Quenched melts with variable Al/Si and NBO/T (average number of nonbridging oxygens per tetrahedrally coordinated cation), synthesized over a range of temperatures and values of oxygen fugacity, are analyzed with57Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy. For oxidized glasses with Fe3+/∑Fe>0.50, the isomer shift for Fe3+ is in the range ~0.22–0.33 mm/s and ~0.36 mm/s at 298 K and 77 K, respectively. These values are indicative of tetrahedrally coordinated Fe3?. This assignment is in agreement with the interpretation of Raman, luminescence, and X-ray,K-edge absorption spectra. The values of the quadrupole splitting are ~0.90 mm/s (298 K and 77 K) in the Na-aluminosilicate glasses and compare with the values of 1.3 mm/s and 1.5 mm/s for the analogous Ca- and Mg-aluminosilicate compositions. The variations in quadrupole splittings for Fe3+ are due to differences in the degree of distortion of the tetrahedrally coordinated site in each of the systems. The values of the isomer shifts for Fe2+ ions in glasses irrespective of Fe3+/∑Fe are in the range 0.90–1.06 mm/s at 298 K and 1.0–1.15 mm/s at 77 K. The corresponding range of values of the quadrupole splitting is 1.75–2.10 mm/s at 298 K and 2.00–2.35 mm/s at 77 K. The temperature dependence of the hyperfine parameters for Fe2+ is indicative of noninteracting ions, but the values of the isomer shift are intermediate between those values normally attributable to tetrahedrally and octahedrally coordinated Fe2+. The assignment of the isomer-shift values of Fe2+ to octahedral coordination is in agreement with the results of other spectral studies. For reduced glasses (Fe3+/∑Fe≈<0.50), the value of the isomer shift for Fe3+ at both 298 K and 77 K increases and is linearly correlated with decreasing Fe3+/∑Fe in the range of \(f_{O_2 } \) between 10?3 and 10?6 atm when a single quadrupole-split doublet is assumed to represent the absorption due to ferric iron. The increase in value of the isomer shift with decreasing \(f_{O_2 } \) is consistent with an increase in the proportion of Fe3+ ions that are octahedrally coordinated. The concentration of octahedral Fe3+ is dependent on the \(T - f_{O_2 } \) conditions, and in the range of log \(f_{O_2 } \) between 10?2.0 and 10?5 a significant proportion of the iron may occur as iron-rich structural units with stoichiometry similar to that of inverse spinels such as Fe3O4, in addition to isolated Fe2+ and Fe3+ ions.  相似文献   
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