Validation of Forecast Cloud Parameters from Multispectral AIRS Radiances     

Louis Garand  Ovidiu Pancrati  Sylvain Heilliette 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):121-137

The well-known CO₂ slicing technique which provides retrievals of cloud parameters (effective height and amount) is adapted in light of model validation using multispectral infrared sounders. The technique is applied to both real Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances and to corresponding radiances simulated from global 6 h and 12 h forecasts for the 31 days of July 2008. The forecast model is the one used operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Radiances are simulated from the Radiative Transfer for the Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (RTTOV) model. When compared to model output of cloud parameters, simulated retrievals help us understand systematic biases linked to the retrieval technique. Systematic errors of interest, attributed to forecast cloud parameters, are then more clearly assessed from real retrievals. This is the central idea of this paper. The proposed definition of model cloud top, based on cloud transmittance, corresponds well to the height derived from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) instrument. These lidar-derived cloud heights, in turn, confirm the nature of the biases produced by the CO₂ slicing technique (e.g., a negative bias increasing with height to about 2 km (approximately 50 hPa) for the highest clouds at 16 km (approximately 100 hPa)). Results suggest that the model has a tendency to produce an excess of low-level clouds below 2 km, compensated for by a deficit from 3 to 6 km. No significant differences are found between 6 h and 12 h forecast monthly fields, an indication that the model has sufficiently spun-up after a few hours. Retrieved global monthly cloud parameter fields are compared to independently derived products available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and AIRS standard processing. Significant differences are noted, linked to the different retrieval approaches, input data and resolution. This is further evidence that, for validation purposes, definitions of observed and model parameters must be consistent.  相似文献   

Assessing groundwater storage in the Kairouan plain aquifer using a 3D lithology model (Central Tunisia)     

Hamza Jerbi  Sylvain Massuel  Christian Leduc  Jamila Tarhouni 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(10):236

The aquifer of the semi-arid Kairouan plain has been exploited for decades to supply the growing irrigated agriculture and the need of drinking water. In parallel, the major hydraulic works drastically changed the natural groundwater recharge processes. The continuous groundwater level drop observed since the 1970s naturally raises the question of groundwater storage sustainability. To date, hydrogeological studies focused on groundwater fluxes, but the total amount of groundwater stored in the aquifer system has never been fully estimated. This is the purpose of the present paper. A complete database of all available geological, hydrogeological and geophysical data was created to build a 3D lithology model. Then, the lithological units were combined with the hydraulic properties to estimate the groundwater storage. Over the 700 km² of the modelled area, the estimated storage in 2013 was around 18?×?10⁹ m³ (equivalent to 80 times the annual consumption of 2010) with a highly variable spatial distribution. In 45 years (1968–2013), 12% of the amount of groundwater stored in the aquifer has been depleted. According to these results, individual farms will face strong regional disparities for their access to groundwater in the near future.  相似文献   

Status of the eLISA on table (LOT) electro-optical simulator for space based,long arms interferometers     

Pierre Grüning  Hubert Halloin  Pierre Prat  Sylvain Baron  Julien Brossard  Christelle Buy  Antoine Petiteau  Gerhard Heinzel  Iouri Bykov 《Experimental Astronomy》2015,39(2):281-302

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The 2011 Draconids: The First European Airborne Meteor Observation Campaign     

Jeremie Vaubaillon  Pavel Koten  Anastasios Margonis  Juraj Toth  Regina Rudawska  Maria Gritsevich  Joe Zender  Jonathan McAuliffe  Pierre-Dominique Pautet  Peter Jenniskens  Detlef Koschny  Francois Colas  Sylvain Bouley  Lucie Maquet  Arnaud Leroy  Jean Lecacheux  Jiri Borovicka  Junichi Watanabe  Jürgen Oberst 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2015,114(3-4):137-157

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Computation of the space and time evolution of equilibrium-line altitudes on Andean glaciers (10°N–55°S)     

Thomas Condom  Anne Coudrain  Jean Emmanuel Sicart  Sylvain Thry 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,59(1-4):189

A previous study of Fox [Fox, A.N. 1993. Snowline altitude and climate at present and during the Last Pleistocene Glacial Maximum in the Central Andes (5°–28°S). Ph.D. Thesis. Cornell University.] showed that for a fixed 0 °C isotherm altitude, the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers from 5 to 20°S can be expressed based on a log–normal expression of local mid-annual rainfall amount (P). In order to extrapolate the function to the whole Andes (10°N to 55°S) a local 0 °C isotherm altitude is introduced. Two applications of this generalised function are presented. One concerns the space evolution of mean inter-annual ELA for three decades (1961–1990) over the whole South American continent. A high-resolution data set (grid data: 10′ for latitude/longitude) of mean monthly air surface temperature and precipitation is used. Mean annual values over the 1961–1990 period were calculated. On each grid element, the mean annual 0 °C isotherm altitude is determined from an altitudinal temperature gradient and mean annual temperature (T) at ground level. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is then associated with the annual precipitation amount to compute the ELA. Using computed ELA and the digital terrain elevation model GTOPO30, we determine the extent of the glacierised area in Andean regions under modern climatic conditions. The other application concerns the ELA time evolution on Zongo Glacier (Bolivia), where inter-annual ELA variations are computed from 1995 to 1999. For both applications, the computed values of ELA are in good agreement with those derived from glacier mass balance measurements.  相似文献   

Osmium,tungsten, and chromium isotopes in sediments and in Ni‐rich spinel at the K‐T boundary: Signature of a chondritic impactor     

Ghylaine Quitt  Eric Robin  Sylvain Levasseur  Franoise Capmas  Robert Rocchia  Jean‐Louis Birck  Claude Jean AllGre 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2007,42(9):1567-1580

Abstract— It is now established that a large extraterrestrial object hit the Earth at the end of the Cretaceous period, about 65 Ma ago. We have investigated Re‐Os, Hf‐W, and Mn‐Cr isotope systems in sediments from the Cretaceous and the Paleogene in order to characterize the type of impactor. Within the Cretaceous‐Tertiary (K‐T) boundary layer, extraterrestrial material is mixed with terrestrial material, causing a dilution of the extraterrestrial isotope signature that is difficult to quantify. A phase essentially composed of Ni‐rich spinel, formed in the atmosphere mainly from melted projectile material, is likely to contain the extraterrestrial isotopic signature of the impactor. We show that the analysis of spinel is indeed the best approach to determine the initial isotope composition of the impactor, and that W and Cr isotopes confirm that the projectile was a carbonaceous chondrite.  相似文献   

Seasonal and monthly hydrological budgets of a fen‐dominated forested watershed,James Bay region,Quebec     

Sandra Proulx‐McInnis  André St‐Hilaire  Alain N. Rousseau  Sylvain Jutras  Gwenael Carrer  Grégor Levrel 《水文研究》2013,27(10):1365-1378

The hydrology of Quebec, Canada, boreal fens is poorly documented. Many peatlands are located in watersheds with impounded rivers. In such cases, their presence influences reservoir inflows. In recent years, some fens have been subjected to an increase of their wet area, a sign that they may be evolving towards an aquatic ecosystem. This dynamic process is called aqualysis. This article presents the seasonal and monthly hydrological budgets of a small watershed including a highly aqualysed fen (James Bay region). The monitoring of precipitation (P), runoff (Q) and groundwater levels (WL) was conducted during the ice‐free season. Three semiempirical equations (Thornthwaite, Priestley–Taylor and Penman–Monteith) were used and compared to calculate potential evapotranspiration. The first two equations, having fewer parameters, estimate higher potential evapotranspiration values than the third equation. The use of pressure‐level gauges installed in wells, for the calculation of peatland water storage, is inconclusive. Swelling of peat, peat decomposition and plant composition could be responsible for nonnegligible amounts of absorbed water, which are not entirely accounted for by well levels. The estimation of peat matrix water storage is potentially the largest source of error and the limiting factor to calculate water balances in this environment. The results show that the groundwater level and the water storage vary depending on the season and especially after a heavy rainfall. Finally, the results illustrate the complexity of water routing through the site and thus raise several questions to be resolved in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Predictability of the Meteorological Conditions Favourable to Radiative Fog Formation During the 2011 ParisFog Campaign   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Laurent Menut  Sylvain Mailler  Jean-Charles Dupont  Martial Haeffelin  Thierry Elias 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2014,150(2):277-297

Radiative fog formation is a complex phenomenon involving local physical and microphysical processes that take place when particular meteorological conditions occur. This study aims at quantifying the ability of a regional numerical weather model to analyze and forecast the conditions favourable to radiative fog formation at an instrumental site in the Paris area. Data from the ParisFog campaign have been used in order to quantify the meteorological conditions favorable to radiative fog formation (pre-fog conditions) by setting threshold values on the key meteorological variables driving this process: 2-m temperature tendency, 10-m wind speed, 2-m relative humidity and net infrared flux. Data from the ParisFog observation periods of November 2011 indicate that use of these thresholds leads to the detection of 87 % of cases in which radiative fog formation was observed. In order to evaluate the ability of a regional weather model to reproduce adequately these conditions, the same thresholds are applied to meteorological model fields in both analysis and forecast mode. It is shown that, with this simple methodology, the model detects 74 % of the meteorological conditions finally leading to observed radiative fog, and 48 % 2 days in advance. Finally, sensitivity tests are conducted in order to evaluate the impact of using larger time or space windows on the forecasting skills.  相似文献   

Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables     

Nkrintra Singhrattna  Sylvain R. Perret 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):26-41

Abstract

The development of statistical relationships between local hydroclimates and large-scale atmospheric variables enhances the understanding of hydroclimate variability. The rainfall in the study basin (the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand) is influenced by the Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean atmospheric circulation. Using correlation analysis and cross-validated multiple regression, the large-scale atmospheric variables, such as temperature, pressure and wind, over given regions are identified. The forecasting models using atmospheric predictors show the capability of long-lead forecasting. The modified k-nearest neighbour (k-nn) model, which is developed using the identified predictors to forecast rainfall, and evaluated by likelihood function, shows a long-lead forecast of monsoon rainfall at 7–9 months. The decreasing performance in forecasting dry-season rainfall is found for both short and long lead times. The developed model also presents better performance in forecasting pre-monsoon season rainfall in dry years compared to wet years, and vice versa for monsoon season rainfall.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Singhrattna, N., Babel, M.S. and Perret, S.R., 2012. Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 26–41.  相似文献   

A strategy for producing refined currents in the Equatorial Atlantic in the context of the search of the AF447 wreckage     

Marie Drévillon  Eric Greiner  Denis Paradis  Christophe Payan  Jean-Michel Lellouche  Guillaume Reffray  Edmée Durand  Stéphane Law-Chune  Sylvain Cailleau 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(1):63-82

On the night of 1st June 2009, a Rio-Paris Air France flight (AF447) disappeared in a highly variable and poorly observed part of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. The first debris was located 5 days after the accident. Several reverse drift computations were conducted in order to define the likely position of the wreckage. Unfortunately, the performance of the operational ocean analyses available in the region of interest ranges from 80 to 100 km of positioning error after 5 days of inverse drift computation. In preparation of the third phase of research of the wreckage at sea, a series of numerical experiments was performed at Météo-France and Mercator Océan in an attempt to better compute the surface currents in the region and for the period of the accident of the AF447 (May and June 2009). Tailored high-resolution atmosphere and ocean reanalyses were first produced respectively at Météo-France and Mercator Océan. Several nested experiments were then performed with a small and flexible ocean model limited to the region of interest. The date of the initial conditions and the type of atmospheric forcing fields were varied in order to produce a small ensemble from which information on the sensitivity to these changes could be derived. Probabilistic and statistical combinations between model and observations were tested and a solution was finally selected by means of a comparison of drift computations with independent surface drift observations.  相似文献