Multi-criteria spatial screening and uncertainty analysis applied to direct-use geothermal projects     

Calvin A. Whealton  Jery R. Stedinger  Jared D. Smith  Teresa E. Jordan  Franklin G. Horowitz  Maria C. Richards 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(10):2053-2076

ABSTRACT

The focus of this work is general methods for prioritization or screening of project sites based on the favorability of multiple spatial criteria. We present a threshold-based transformation of each underlying spatial favorability factor into a continuous scale with a common favorability interpretation across all criteria. We compare several methods of computing site favorability and propagating uncertainty from the data to the favorability metrics. Including uncertainty allows decision makers to determine if seeming differences among sites are significant. We address uncertainty using Taylor series approximations and analytical distributions, which are compared to computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our methods are applied to siting direct-use geothermal energy projects in the Appalachian Basin, where our knowledge about any particular site is limited, yet sufficient data exist to estimate favorability. We consider four factors that contribute to site favorability: the thermal resource described by the depth to 80°C rock, natural reservoir productivity described by rock permeability and thickness, potential for induced seismicity, and the estimated cost of surface infrastructure for heat distribution. Those factors are combined in three ways. We develop favorability uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methods. All methods are general and can be applied to other multi-criteria spatial screening problems.  相似文献   

Flower orientation in Pachycereus weberi (Cactaceae): Effects on ovule production, seed production and seed weight     

D.M. Figueroa-Castro  P.L. Valverde 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(11):1214-1217

Few studies have determined the importance of orientation on flower reproductive success. Flower orientation may affect reproduction of Cactaceae; the interception of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) differs along the different sides of cacti stems, and translocation of resources between cacti ribs does not appear to occur. Therefore, PAR received by each cacti stem face may determine the resources available for reproduction. We examined the reproductive success of Pachycereus weberi flowers with contrasting orientations. Ovule production per ovary, number of seeds per fruit, seed set per fruit and seed weight were used as indicators of reproductive success for flowers facing southeast and northeast. PAR received on opposite stem sides was recorded as an estimator of resource availability for each side. Results showed that flowers facing southwards produced more ovules and seeds and produced heavier seeds. Seed set was not significantly different between flowers with contrasting orientations. The southern stem faces received more PAR than the northern faces. Reproductive success was different for flowers with contrasting orientations, suggesting that there is an association between PAR received on different P. weberi stem faces and floral reproductive success.  相似文献   

Middle and late Holocene climate change and human impact inferred from diatoms,algae and aquatic macrophyte pollen in sediments from Lake Montcortès (NE Iberian Peninsula)     

Paolo Scussolini  Teresa Vegas-Vilarrúbia  Valentí Rull  Juan Pablo Corella  Blas Valero-Garcés  Joan Gomà 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2011,46(3):369-385

During the middle and late Holocene, the Iberian Peninsula underwent large climatic and hydrologic changes, but the temporal resolution and regional distribution of available palaeoenvironmental records is still insufficient for a comprehensive assessment of the regional variability. The high sedimentation rate in karstic, meromictic Montcortès Lake (Catalan pre-Pyrenees) allows for a detailed reconstruction of the regional palaeoecology over the last 5,340 years using diatom analysis, aquatic pollen, sedimentological data, and historic documentary records. Results show marked fluctuations in diatom species assemblage composition, mainly between dominant Cyclotella taxa and small Fragilariales. We suggest that the conspicuous alternation between Cyclotella comta and C. cyclopuncta reflects changes in trophic state, while the succession of centric and pennate species most likely reflects changes in the hydrology of the lake. The diatom assemblages were used to identify six main phases: (1) high productivity and likely lower lake levels before 2350 BC, (2) lower lake levels and a strong arid phase between 2350 and 1850 BC, (3) lake level increase between 1850 and 850 BC, (4) relatively high lake level with fluctuating conditions during the Iberian and Roman Epochs (650 BC–350 AD), (5) lower lake levels, unfavourable conditions for diatom preservation, eutrophication and erosion triggered by increased human activities in the watershed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900–1300 AD), and (6) relatively higher lake levels during the LIA (1380–1850 AD) and afterwards. The combined study of diatoms, algae and pollen provides a detailed reconstruction of past climate, which refines understanding of regional environmental variability and interactions between climate and socio-economic conditions in the Pyrenees.  相似文献   

Changes in the interannual SST-forced signals on West African rainfall. AGCM intercomparison     

Elsa Mohino  Bel��n Rodr��guez-Fonseca  Teresa Losada  S��bastien Gervois  Serge Janicot  Juergen Bader  Paolo Ruti  Fabrice Chauvin 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(9-10):1707-1725

Rainfall over West Africa shows strong interannual variability related to changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Nevertheless, this relationship seem to be non-stationary. A particular turning point is the decade of the 1970s, which witnessed a number of changes in the climatic system, including the climate shift of the late 1970s. The first aim of this study is to explore the change in the interannual variability of West African rainfall after this shift. The analysis indicates that the dipolar features of the rainfall variability over this region, related to changes in the Atlantic SST, disappear after this period. Also, the Pacific SST variability has a higher correlation with Guinean rainfall in the recent period. The results suggest that the current relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific El Ni?o phenomena is the principal responsible for these changes. A fundamental goal of climate research is the development of models simulating a realistic current climate. For this reason, the second aim of this work is to test the performance of Atmospheric General Circulation models in simulating rainfall variability over West Africa. The models have been run with observed SSTs for the common period 1957?C1998 as part of an intercomparison exercise. The results show that the models are able to reproduce Guinean interannual variability, which is strongly related to SST variability in the Equatorial Atlantic. Nevertheless, problems in the simulation of the Sahelian interannual variability appear: not all models are able to reproduce the observed negative link between rainfall over the Sahel and El Ni?o-like anomalies in the Pacific, neither the positive correlation between Mediterranean SSTs and Sahelian rainfall.  相似文献   

Lead isotopes as tracers of anthropogenic pollution in urban topsoils of Mexico City   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ofelia Morton-Bermea  María Teresa Rodríguez-Salazar  Elizabeth Hernández-Alvarez  Ma Elena García-Arreola  Rufino Lozano-Santacruz 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011,(2):189-195

A survey was performed to trace the main source of anthropogenic Pb pollution in Mexico City through Pb isotopic signatures (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁷Pb) from 103 urban topsoil (0–5 cm) samples. Those were collected in the metropolitan area of Mexico City and compared with isotopic compositions of leaded gasoline (LG), domestic Pb ores (DLO) and parent rock (PR). The isotope ratios (IRs) of Pb were determined by inductively coupled plasma quadrupole mass spectrometry (ICP-QMS) and total Pb concentration analyzed by wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence (WDXRF). The range of Pb concentrations levels in urban topsoil samples was 15–473 mg/kg. The IR values obtained for these samples were 37.965–39.718 (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb), 18.375–19.204 (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb), 1.177–1.218 (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb) and 2.443–2.496 (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁷Pb). Analyzed topsoil samples with low Pb content (<50 mg/kg) displayed high dispersion in ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb values, which are determined by different natural sources. Samples with 51–200 mg/kg Pb content, shown low dispersion that revealed the mixing between the natural Pb and anthropogenic Pb. The assessment of the IR values shown that, as Pb concentration increases, a trend toward gasoline IR data has been observed. The results obtained by this research suggest that although the use of leaded petrol had been banned in Mexico since 1997, the Pb pollution in the urban topsoils due to the historical use of Pb in petrol is still significant.  相似文献   

Does variscite control phosphate availability in acidic natural waters? An experimental study of variscite dissolution rates     

Teresa Roncal-Herrero 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(2):416-426

The dissolution rates of natural, well crystallized variscite (AlPO₄·2H₂O) were determined from the evolution of aqueous Al and P concentrations in closed and open-system mixed-flow reactors at 25 °C and pH from 1.5 to 9.0. Measured dissolution rates decrease with increasing pH, from 6 × 10⁻¹⁶ mol/cm²/s at pH 1.5 to 5 × 10⁻¹⁷ mol/cm²/s at pH 5.89, and then increase with increasing pH to 4 × 10⁻¹⁶ mol/cm²/s at pH 9.0. Geochemical modeling calculations, performed using measured dissolution rates, indicate that it would take no more than a few weeks or months to equilibrate a mildly acidic, Al and P-free solution with variscite. Hence, variscite can buffer aqueous phosphate concentrations in mildly acidic near surface environments. This conclusion is confirmed by consideration of the compositions of natural waters.  相似文献   

Estimating global discards and their potential reduction for the Galician fishing fleet (NW Spain)     

Ian Vázquez-Rowe  M Teresa MoreiraGumersindo Feijoo 《Marine Policy》2011

This study presents the first comprehensive estimation of discard amounts in the Galician fishing fleet, in order to provide an integral view of this increasing environmental problem at a regional scale. Subsequently, a series of improvement actions relating to discard minimization are suggested with the goal of enhancing the performance of the Galician fishing fleet through discard minimization. Discard estimates were constructed individually for the different Galician fisheries by aggregating primary data obtained from a total of 89 fishing vessels and secondary data for those fleets that were not directly sampled. Results showed that roughly 60,250 t of marine organisms were discarded by the Galician fleet in 2008, representing 16.9% of the total capture. Moreover, an important percentage of these discards were linked mainly to trawling vessels and to a lesser extent, to certain long lining fisheries. Therefore, improved management measures in target stocks should take into account the fact that alternative fishing gears other than trawl nets may reduce the amount of discards for certain species. This estimation may improve the assessment of stocks and help to quantify the damage that discards may have on wild ecosystems.  相似文献   

Role of different salt marsh plants on metal retention in an urban estuary (Lima estuary,NW Portugal)     

C.M.R. Almeida  Ana P. Mucha  M. Teresa Vasconcelos 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

The aim of the present work was to understand the role different salt marsh plants on metal distribution and retention in the Lima River estuary (NW Portugal), which to our knowledge have not been ascertained in this area yet. The knowledge of these differences is an important requirement for the development of appropriate management strategies, and is poorly described for Eurosiberian estuaries, like the one selected. In addition it is important to understand the difference among introduced and native salt marsh plants. In this work, metal levels (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) were surveyed (by atomic absorption spectrometry) in sediments from sites vegetated with Juncus maritimus, Spartina patens, Phragmites australis and Triglochin striata (rhizo-sediments), in non-vegetated sediments and in the different tissues of the plants (roots, rhizomes and aerial shoots). In general, rhizo-sediments had higher metal concentrations than non-vegetated sediments, a feature that seems common to sediments colonized by salt marsh plants of different estuarine areas. All plants concentrated metals, at least Cd, Cu and Zn (and Pb for T. striata) in their belowground structures ([M]_{belowground tissues}/[M]_{non-vegetated sediment} > 1). However, when considered per unit of salt marsh area, the different selected plants played a different role on sediment metal distribution and retention. Triglochin striata retained a significant metal burden in it belowground structures (root plus rhizomes) acting like a possible phyto-stabilizer, whereas P. australis had an higher metal burden in aboveground tissues acting as a possible phyto-extractor. As for J. maritimus and S. patens, metal burden distribution between above and belowground structures depended on the metal, with J. maritimus retaining, for instance, much more Cd and Cu in the aboveground than in the belowground structures. Therefore, the presence of invasive and exotic plants in some areas of the salt marsh may considerably affect metal distribution and retention in the estuarine region.  相似文献   

Retrograde formation of NaCl-scapolite in high pressure metaevaporites from the Cordilleras Béticas (Spain)     

Maria Teresa Gómez-Pugnaire  Gerhard Franz  Vicente López Sánchez-Vizcaino 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1994,116(4):448-461

A Permo-Triassic pelite-carbonate rock series (with interacalated metabasitic rocks) in the Cordilleras Béticas, Spain, was metamorphosed during the Alpine metamorphism at high pressures (P _min near 18 kbar). The rocks show well preserved sedimentary features of evaporites such as pseudomorphs of talc, of kyanite-phengitetalc-biotite, and of quartz after sulfate minerals, and relicts of baryte, anhydrite, NaCl, and KCl, indicating a salt-clay mixture of illite, chlorite, talc, and halite as the original rock. The evaporitic metapelites have a whole rock composition characterized by high Mg/(Mg+Ca) ratios>0.7, variable alkaline and Sr, Ba, contents, but are mostly K₂O rich (<8.8 wt%). The F (<2600 ppm), Cl (<3600 ppm), and P₂O₅ (<0.24 wt%) contents are also high. The pelitic member of this series is a fine grained biotite rock. Kyanite-phengite-talc-biotite aggregates in pseudomorphs developed in the high pressure stage. Albite-rich plagioclase was formed when the rocks crossed the albite stability curve in the early stages of the uplift. Scapolite, rich in NaCl (Ca/(Ca+Na) mol% 24–40) and poor in SO₄, with Cl/(Cl+CO₃) ratios between 0.6 and 0.8, formed as porphyroblasts, sometimes replacing up to 60% of the rock in a late stage of metamorphism (between 10 and 5 kbar, near 600°C). No reaction with albite is observed, and the scapolite formed from biotite by: $$\begin{gathered} Al - biotite + CaCO_3 + NaCl + SiO_2 \hfill \\ = Al - poor biotite + scapolite + MgCO_3 + KCl \hfill \\ + MgCl_2 + H_2 O \hfill \\ \end{gathered}$$ Calculated fluid composition in equilibrium with scapolite indicates varying salt concentrations in the fluid. Distribution of Cl and F in biotite and apatite also indicates varying fluid compositions.  相似文献   

Recent observations of the WR central star of the planetary nebula LMC-N66     

Miriam Peña  Manuel Peimbert  Silvia Torres-Peimbert  Maria Teresa Ruiz  Jose Maza 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,238(1):55-58

The recent evolution of the central star of the planetary nebula LMC-N66 is presented. Before 1987, it showed a weak continuum with aT _eff120 000 K andL _bol25 000L and in a few years it developed strong WR features (P Cygni line profiles in N v at 124.0 nm and C IV at 155.0 nm, wide Heii emission, etc.) typical of a WN 4.5. Additionally the stellar continuum increased by a large factor and the absolute visual magnitude of the star changed from + 1.24 in 1987 to–2.57 in January, 1995. The WR features and enhanced continuum, evidencing a powerful mass-loss event remained with small variations for more than 5 years. Recent ultraviolet and optical data shows that the mass-loss seems to have diminished abruptly in the last three months.  相似文献