Estimation of flood damage functions for river basin planning: a case study in Bangladesh     

Y. C. Ethan Yang  Patrick A. Ray  Casey M. Brown  Abedalrazq F. Khalil  Winston H. Yu 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(3):2773-2791

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Intergranular diffusion rates from the analysis of garnet surfaces: Implications for metamorphic equilibration          下载免费PDF全文

Tim J. Dempster  Shona Symon  Peter Chung 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2017,35(6):585-600

Novel approaches to garnet analysis have been used to assess rates of intergranular diffusion between different matrix phases and garnet porphyroblasts in a regionally metamorphosed staurolite‐mica‐schist from the Barrovian‐type area in Scotland. X‐ray maps and chemical traverses of planar porphyroblast surfaces reveal chemical heterogeneity of the garnet grain boundary linked to the nature of the adjacent matrix phase. The garnet preserves evidence of low temperature retrograde exchange with matrix minerals and diffusion profiles documenting cation movement along the garnet boundaries. Garnet–quartz and garnet–plagioclase boundaries preserve evidence of sluggish Mg, Mn and Fe diffusion at comparable rates to volume diffusion in garnet, whereas diffusion along garnet–biotite interfaces is much more effective. Evidence of particularly slow Al transport, probably coupled to Fe³⁺ exchange, is locally preserved on garnet surfaces adjacent to Fe‐oxide phases. The Ca distribution on the garnet surface shows the most complex behaviour, with long‐wavelength heterogeneities apparently unrelated to the matrix grain boundaries. This implies that the Ca content of garnet is controlled by local availability and is thought likely to reflect disequilibrium established during garnet growth. Geochemical anomalies on the garnet surfaces are also linked to the location of triple junctions between the porphyroblasts and the matrix phases, and imply enhanced transport along these channels. The slow rates of intergranular diffusion and the characteristics of different boundary types may explain many features associated with the prograde growth of garnet porphyroblasts. Thus, minerals such as quartz, Fe‐oxides and plagioclase whose boundaries with garnet are characterized by slow intergranular diffusion rates appear to be preferentially trapped as inclusions within porphyroblasts. As such grain boundary diffusion rates may be a significant kinetic impediment to metamorphic equilibrium and garnet may struggle to maintain chemical and textural equilibrium during growth in pelites.  相似文献   

Water source dynamics of high Arctic river basins          下载免费PDF全文

Phillip J. Blaen  David M. Hannah  Lee E. Brown  Alexander M. Milner 《水文研究》2014,28(10):3521-3538

Arctic river basins are amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. However, there is currently limited knowledge of the hydrological processes that govern flow dynamics in Arctic river basins. We address this research gap using natural hydrochemical and isotopic tracers to identify water sources that contributed to runoff in river basins spanning a gradient of glacierization (0–61%) in Svalbard during summer 2010 and 2011. Spatially distinct hydrological processes operating over diurnal, weekly and seasonal timescales were characterized by river hydrochemistry and isotopic composition. Two conceptual water sources (‘meltwater’ and ‘groundwater’) were identified and used as a basis for end‐member mixing analyses to assess seasonal and year‐to‐year variability in water source dynamics. In glacier‐fed rivers, meltwater dominated flows at all sites (typically >80%) with the highest contributions observed at the beginning of each study period in early July when snow cover was most extensive. Rivers in non‐glacierized basins were sourced initially from snowmelt but became increasingly dependent on groundwater inputs (up to 100% of total flow volume) by late summer. These hydrological changes were attributed to the depletion of snowpacks and enhanced soil water storage capacity as the active layer expanded throughout each melt season. These findings provide insight into the processes that underpin water source dynamics in Arctic river systems and potential future changes in Arctic hydrology that might be expected under a changing climate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Rainfall partitioning through a mixed cedar swamp and associated C and N fluxes in Southern Ontario,Canada     

Tim P. Duval 《水文研究》2019,33(11):1510-1524

Partitioning of rainfall through a forest canopy into throughfall, stemflow, and canopy interception is a critical process in the water cycle, and the contact of precipitation with vegetated surfaces leads to increased delivery of solutes to the forest floor. This study investigates the rainfall partitioning over a growing season through a temperate, riparian, mixed coniferous‐deciduous cedar swamp, an ecosystem not well studied with respect to this process. Seasonal throughfall, stemflow, and interception were 69.2%, 1.5%, and 29.3% of recorded above‐canopy precipitation, respectively. Event throughfall ranged from a low of 31.5 ± 6.8% for a small 0.8‐mm event to a high of 82.9 ± 2.4% for a large 42.7‐mm event. Rain fluxes of at least 8 mm were needed to generate stemflow from all instrumented trees. Most trees had funnelling ratios <1.0, with an exponential decrease in funnelling ratio with increasing tree size. Despite this, stand‐scale funnelling ratios averaged 2.81 ± 1.73, indicating equivalent depth of water delivered across the swamp floor by stemflow was greater than incident precipitation. Throughfall dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) averaged 26.60 ± 2.96 and 2.02 ± 0.16 mg L^?1, respectively, which were ~11 and three times above‐canopy rain levels. Stemflow DOC averaged 73.33 ± 7.43 mg L^?1, 35 times higher than precipitation, and TDN was 4.45 ± 0.56 mg L^?1, 7.5 times higher than rain. Stemflow DOC concentration was highest from Populus balsamifera and TDN greatest from Thuja occidentalis trees. Although total below‐canopy flux of TDN increased with increasing event size, DOC flux was greatest for events 20–30 mm, suggesting a canopy storage threshold of DOC was readily diluted. In addition to documenting rainfall partitioning in a novel ecosystem, this study demonstrates the excess carbon and nitrogen delivered to riparian swamps, suggesting the assimilative capacity of these zones may be underestimated.  相似文献   

Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities          下载免费PDF全文

Herbert Ssegane  Devendra M. Amatya  Augustine Muwamba  George M. Chescheir  Tim Appelboom  E.W. Tollner  Jami E. Nettles  Mohamed A. Youssef  François Birgand  R.W. Skaggs 《水文研究》2017,31(20):3458-3471

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.  相似文献   

Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality     

Simon J. Lloyd  R. Sari Kovats  Zaid Chalabi  Sally Brown  Robert J. Nicholls 《Climatic change》2016,134(3):441-455

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Factors controlling the interannual variations of MJO intensity     

邓莉  李天明  刘佳 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,30(3):328-340

The interannual variations of intensity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter are investigated by using the observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis data of ECMWF and NCEP. The standard deviation of 20-80-day filtered OLR anomaly is used to measure the MJO intensity. The dominant spatial structure of the interannual variability is revealed by an EOF analysis of the MJO intensity field. It is found that the leading mode is associated with eastern Pacific type ENSO, whereas the second mode is related to central Pacific type ENSO. A simple atmospheric model is used to investigate the relative roles of background moisture and wind changes in affecting the overall strength of MJO. The numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture effect is dominant while the background wind change has a minor effect.  相似文献   

Landslide detection and susceptibility mapping using LiDAR and an artificial neural network approach: a case study in the Cuyahoga Valley National Park,Ohio     

Pece V. Gorsevski  M. Kenneth Brown  Kurt Panter  Charles M. Onasch  Anita Simic  Jeffrey Snyder 《Landslides》2016,13(3):467-484

The purpose of this study was to detect shallow landslides using hillshade maps derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-based digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives. The landslide susceptibility mapping used an artificial neural network (ANN) approach and backpropagation method that was tested in the northern portion of the Cuyahoga Valley National Park (CVNP) located in northeast Ohio. The relationship between landslides and predictor attributes, which describe landform classes using slope, profile and plan curvatures, upslope drainage area, annual solar radiation, and wetness index, was extracted from LiDAR-based DEM using geographic information system (GIS). The approach presented in this paper required a training study area for the development of the susceptibility model and a validation study area to test the model. The results from the validation showed that within the very high susceptibility class, a total of 42.6 % of known landslides that were associated with 1.56 % of total area were correctly predicted. In contrast, the very low susceptibility class that represented 82.68 % of the total area was associated with 1.20 % of known landslides. The results suggest that the majority of the known landslides occur within a small portion of the study area, consistent with field investigation and other studies. Sample probabilistic maps of landslide susceptibility potential and other products from this approach are summarized and presented for visualization to help park officials in effective management and planning.  相似文献   

Evaluation of coseismic landslide hazard on the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway,South Island,New Zealand     

Tom R. Robinson  Tim R. H. Davies  Thomas M. Wilson  Caroline Orchiston  Nicolas Barth 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(2):146-163

Coseismic landsliding presents a major hazard to infrastructure in mountains during large earthquakes. This is particularly true for road networks, as historically coseismic landsliding has resulted in road losses larger than those due to ground shaking. Assessing the exposure of current and planned highway links to coseismic landsliding for future earthquake scenarios is therefore vital for disaster risk reduction. This study presents a method to evaluate the exposure of critical infrastructure to landsliding from scenario earthquakes from an underlying quantitative landslide hazard assessment. The method is applied to a proposed new highway link in South Island, New Zealand, for a scenario Alpine Fault earthquake and compared to the current network. Exposure (the likelihood of a network being affected by one or more landslides) is evaluated from a regional-scale coseismic landslide hazard model and assessed on a relative basis from 0 to 1. The results show that the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway (HHH) would be highly exposed to coseismic landsliding with at least 30–40?km likely to be badly affected (the Simonin Pass route being the worse affected of the two routes). In the current South Island State Highway network, the HHH would be the link most exposed to landsliding and would increase the total network exposure by 50–70% despite increasing the total road length by just 3%. The present work is intended to provide an effective method to assess coseismic landslide hazard of infrastructure in mountains with seismic hazard, and potentially identify mitigation options and critical network segments.  相似文献   

A helping hand: artificial nest site provisioning increases breeding success of a tropical seabird     

LA Hart  J Gane  I Olivier  M Brown 《African Journal of Marine Science》2016,38(2):233-239

Common white terns Gygis alba lay a single egg balanced on rocks or branches and consequently are at risk of low nesting success. A novel technique of hollowing out coconut husks and providing artificial nest sites was developed on Cousine Island, Seychelles. Our study aimed to critically assess whether common white tern nesting success differed between artificial and natural nest sites. For natural nest sites, nesting success and the stage of nest failure were also compared between seasons, nest heights, and tree species. Finally, we compared results from our study to those of a study conducted 10 years ago on the same island. Nesting success differed significantly between artificial nests and natural nests, with the success of artificial nests nearly double that of natural nests. Hatching success was similar for artificial and natural nests (65% and 52% respectively), suggesting coconut husks do not reduce egg losses, but rather provide secure perches for young chicks. Most natural nest failures occurred during the egg phase (70%), followed by the youngest chick phase (21%). Of the eggs that hatched in natural nests, 61% fledged successfully. Tree species and season significantly influenced nesting success for natural nests and nest height varied significantly between tree species. Higher nesting success was observed during the mixed seasonal period (50%) followed by the cooler, windier and drier South-East Monsoon season (33%). The hotter and more humid North-West Monsoon period had the lowest nesting success (20%). Comparisons of nesting success at natural and artificial nest sites with the earlier study did not differ significantly, despite a smaller population of common white terns being present on the island at that stage. Our results support the use of artificial nest sites to improve nesting success for this species and serve as a model for similar species currently under threat.  相似文献