A statistical analysis of the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency     

Todd W. Moore 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,125(1-2):149-159

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Factors controlling the interannual variations of MJO intensity     

邓莉  李天明  刘佳 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,30(3):328-340

The interannual variations of intensity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter are investigated by using the observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis data of ECMWF and NCEP. The standard deviation of 20-80-day filtered OLR anomaly is used to measure the MJO intensity. The dominant spatial structure of the interannual variability is revealed by an EOF analysis of the MJO intensity field. It is found that the leading mode is associated with eastern Pacific type ENSO, whereas the second mode is related to central Pacific type ENSO. A simple atmospheric model is used to investigate the relative roles of background moisture and wind changes in affecting the overall strength of MJO. The numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture effect is dominant while the background wind change has a minor effect.  相似文献   

Evaluation of coseismic landslide hazard on the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway,South Island,New Zealand     

Tom R. Robinson  Tim R. H. Davies  Thomas M. Wilson  Caroline Orchiston  Nicolas Barth 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(2):146-163

Coseismic landsliding presents a major hazard to infrastructure in mountains during large earthquakes. This is particularly true for road networks, as historically coseismic landsliding has resulted in road losses larger than those due to ground shaking. Assessing the exposure of current and planned highway links to coseismic landsliding for future earthquake scenarios is therefore vital for disaster risk reduction. This study presents a method to evaluate the exposure of critical infrastructure to landsliding from scenario earthquakes from an underlying quantitative landslide hazard assessment. The method is applied to a proposed new highway link in South Island, New Zealand, for a scenario Alpine Fault earthquake and compared to the current network. Exposure (the likelihood of a network being affected by one or more landslides) is evaluated from a regional-scale coseismic landslide hazard model and assessed on a relative basis from 0 to 1. The results show that the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway (HHH) would be highly exposed to coseismic landsliding with at least 30–40?km likely to be badly affected (the Simonin Pass route being the worse affected of the two routes). In the current South Island State Highway network, the HHH would be the link most exposed to landsliding and would increase the total network exposure by 50–70% despite increasing the total road length by just 3%. The present work is intended to provide an effective method to assess coseismic landslide hazard of infrastructure in mountains with seismic hazard, and potentially identify mitigation options and critical network segments.  相似文献   

Interseismic deformation in south-central Tibet from InSAR and GPS data     

Hua Wang  Tim J. Wright  Jing Liu Zeng  Lincai Peng 《《地质学报》英文版》2018,92(Z1):148-148

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Evaluating Tidal Wetland Restoration Performance Using National Estuarine Research Reserve System Reference Sites and the Restoration Performance Index (RPI)     

Kenneth B. Raposa  Scott Lerberg  Craig Cornu  John Fear  Nina Garfield  Christopher Peter  Robin L.J. Weber  Gregg Moore  David Burdick  Michelle Dionne 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(1):36-51

Evaluations of tidal wetland restoration efforts suffer from a lack of appropriate reference sites and standardized methods among projects. To help address these issues, the National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) and the NOAA Restoration Center engaged in a partnership to monitor ecological responses and evaluate 17 tidal wetland restoration projects associated with five reserves. The goals of this study were to (1) determine the level of restoration achieved at each project using the restoration performance index (RPI), which compares change in parameters over time between reference and restoration sites, (2) compare hydrologic and excavation restoration projects using the RPI, (3) identify key indicator parameters for assessing restoration effectiveness, and (4) evaluate the value of the NERRS as reference sites for local restoration projects. We found that the RPI, modified for this study, was an effective tool for evaluating relative differences in restoration performance; most projects achieved an intermediate level of restoration from 2008 to 2010, and two sites became very similar to their paired reference sites, indicating that the restoration efforts were highly effective. There were no differences in RPI scores between hydrologic and excavation restoration project types. Two abiotic parameters (marsh platform elevation and groundwater level) were significantly correlated with vegetation community structure and thus can potentially influence restoration performance. Our results highlight the value of the NERRS as reference sites for assessing tidal wetland restoration projects and provide improved guidance for scientists and restoration practitioners by highlighting the RPI as a trajectory analysis tool and identifying key monitoring parameters.  相似文献   

Floodgate Operations and Fish Communities in Tidal Creeks of the Lower Fraser River (British Columbia,Canada)     

Rebecca E. Seifert  Jonathan W. Moore 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(4):1206-1221

Tidal creeks in large coastal deltas can be important habitat for fish but are often highly modified by human activities. Connectivity between tributary creeks and mainstem channels is often constrained by structures such as dikes and floodgates, designed to protect urban and agricultural areas from flooding. While they play important roles in flood mitigation, floodgates can diminish habitat quality and block fish from accessing tidal creeks. It is likely that floodgates differ in their operations and may consequently open for different amounts of time; however, floodgate operations and their effects are not well quantified. We asked the question: how does the mechanical functioning of these floodgates affect fish communities in tidal creeks? We used time-lapse cameras and quantified the timing of gate openings for 22 tributaries of the Lower Fraser River in British Columbia, Canada, and related these operational data to differences in fish communities above and below floodgates. Floodgate operations varied substantially, with some floodgates opening daily while others opened less than 20% of the day, on average. Sites with floodgates that seldom opened were associated with greater differences in fish communities and with reduced upstream native species richness by about one species on average. Where floodgates opened infrequently, we also found lower upstream dissolved oxygen concentrations than at sites where floodgates opened for longer periods of time. Thus, floodgate operations can influence fish communities as well as water quality. These data indicate a large scope for improving floodgate operations for connectivity.  相似文献   

The Oeschinensee rock avalanche,Bernese Alps,Switzerland: a co-seismic failure 2300 years ago?     

Patrizia Köpfli  Lorenz M. Grämiger  Jeffrey R. Moore  Christof Vockenhuber  Susan Ivy-Ochs 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2018,111(1-2):205-219

Landslide deposits dam Lake Oeschinen (Oeschinensee), located above Kandersteg, Switzerland. However, past confusion differentiating deposits of multiple landslide events has confounded efforts to quantify the volume, age, and failure dynamics of the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. Here we combine field and remote mapping, topographic reconstruction, cosmogenic surface exposure dating, and numerical runout modeling to quantify salient parameters of the event. Differences in boulder lithology and deposit morphology reveal that the landslide body damming Oeschinensee consists of debris from both an older rock avalanche, possibly Kandertal, as well as the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. We distinguish a source volume for the Oeschinensee event of 37 Mm³, resulting in an estimated deposit volume of 46 Mm³, smaller than previous estimates that included portions of the Kandertal mass. Runout modeling revealed peak and average rock avalanche velocities of 65 and 45 m/s, respectively, and support a single-event failure scenario. ³⁶Cl surface exposure dating of deposited boulders indicates a mean age for the rock avalanche of 2.3 ± 0.2 kyr. This age coincides with the timing of a paleo-seismic event identified from lacustrine sediments in Swiss lakes, suggesting an earthquake trigger. Our results help clarify the hazard and geomorphic effects of rare, large rock avalanches in alpine settings.  相似文献   

Metasomatism and the crystallization of zircon megacrysts in Archaean peridotites from the Lewisian complex,NW Scotland     

John?W.?Faithfull  Tim?J.?DempsterEmail author  John?M.?MacDonald  Monica?Reilly  EIMF 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(12):99

Zircon megacrysts are locally abundant in 1–40 cm-thick orthopyroxenite veins within peridotite host rocks in the Archaean Lewisian gneiss complex from NW Scotland. The veins formed by metasomatic interaction between the ultramafic host and Si-rich melts are derived from partial melting of the adjacent granulite-facies orthogneisses. The interaction produced abundant orthopyroxene and, within the thicker veins, phlogopite, pargasite and feldspathic bearing assemblages. Two generations of zircon are present with up to 1 cm megacrystic zircon and a later smaller equant population located around the megacryst margins. Patterns of zoning, rare earth element abundance and oxygen isotopic compositions indicate that the megacrysts crystallized from crustal melts, whereas the equant zircon represents new neocryst growth and partial replacement of the megacryst zircon within the ultramafic host. Both zircon types have U–Pb ages of ca. 2464 Ma, broadly contemporaneous with granulite-facies events in the adjacent gneisses. Zircon megacrysts locally form?>?10% of the assemblage and may be associated to zones of localized nucleation or physically concentrated during movement of the siliceous melts. Their unusual size is linked to the suppression of zircon nucleation and increased Zr solubility in the Si-undersaturated melts. The metasomatism between crustal melts and peridotite may represent an analog for processes in the mantle wedge above subducting slabs. As such, the crystallization of abundant zircon in ultramafic host rocks has implications for geochemistry of melts generated in the mantle and the widely reported depletion of high field strength elements in arc magmas.  相似文献   

The Anglo-Brabant Massif: Persistent but enigmatic palaeo-relief at the heart of western Europe     

Tim Pharaoh 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2018,129(3):278-328

The surface geology of central England and Belgium obscures a large ‘basement’ massif with a complex history and stronger crust and lithosphere than surrounding regions. The nucleus was forged by subduction-related magmatism at the Gondwana margin in Ediacaran time. Partitioning into a platform, in the English Midlands, and a basin stretching to Belgium, in the east, was already evident in Cambrian/earliest Ordovician time. The accretion of the Monian Composite Terrane during the Penobscotian deformation phase preceded late Tremadocian rifting, and Floian separation, of the Avalonia Terrane from the Gondwana margin. Late Ordovician magmatism in a belt from the Lake District to Belgium records subduction beneath Avalonia of part of the Tornquist Sea. This ‘Western Pacific-style’ oceanic basin closed in latest Ordovician time, uniting Avalonia and Baltica. Closure of the Iapetus Ocean in early Silurian time was soon followed by closure of the Rheic Ocean, recorded by subduction along the southern margin of the massif. The causes of late Caledonian deformation are poorly understood and controversial. Partitioned behaviour of the massif persisted into late Palaeozoic time. Late Devonian and Carboniferous sequences show strong onlap onto the massif, which was little affected by crustal extension. Compressional deformation during the Variscan Orogeny also appears slight, and was focussed in the west where a wedge-shaped mountain foreland uplift was driven by orogenic indentation, splitting the massif from the Welsh Massif along the reactivated Malvern Line. Permian to Mesozoic sequences exhibit persistent but variable degrees of onlap onto the massif.  相似文献   

淮河流域夏季极端降水频次空间分布的客观分类及其形成机理     

卢睿  朱志伟  李天明  潘晓  江叶艳  陆雅君 《大气科学》2021,45(6):1415-1432

本文基于1961～2016年淮河流域四省（江苏、安徽、河南、山东）逐日降水观测资料及全球大气再分析资料,利用K均值聚类、旋转经验正交函数分解对淮河流域夏季极端降水频次分布进行了客观分类,利用统计诊断和数值模拟的手段讨论了其相关环流异常和形成机理。结果表明:（1）淮河流域夏季极端降水频次的空间分布可客观分为以极端降水主要发生在淮河流域33°N以南地区的南部型,主要发生在32°～36°N之间的中部型,和主要发生在34°N以北的北部型这三种分布类型;（2）南部型极端降水频次分布与西北太平洋副热带高压异常偏西偏南有关,西北太平洋异常反气旋北侧的异常气旋性环流使得水汽输送停留在淮河流域南部,导致南部极端降水频次偏多。中部型对应淮河流域受鞍型场环流结构控制,导致中部极端降水频次偏多。北部型极端降水频次分布时,淮河流域处于反气旋性环流异常西南侧,偏南风将水汽输送至淮河流域北部,导致北部极端降水频次偏多;（3）南部型和北部型的极端降水频次分布相关环流异常分别受厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜相关海表温度异常所影响,而中部型极端降水频次分布的相关环流异常是巴伦支海/喀拉海海冰异常在欧亚大陆上空激发的自西北向东南传播的准定常罗斯贝波所导致的。  相似文献