Impact of future climate change on wheat production in relation to plant-available water capacity in a semiaridenvironment     

Yanmin Yang  De Li Liu  Muhuddin Rajin Anwar  Heping Zuo  Yonghui Yang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(3-4):391-410

Conceptions encompassing climate change are irreversible rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, increased temperature, and changes in rainfall both in spatial- and temporal-scales worldwide. This will have a major impact on wheat production, particularly if crops are frequently exposed to a sequence, frequency, and intensity of specific weather events like high temperature during growth period. However, the process of wheat response to climate change is complex and compounded by interactions among atmospheric CO₂ concentration_, climate variables, soil, nutrition, and agronomic management. In this study, we use the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model, driven by statistically downscaled climate projections of 18 global circulation models (GCMs) under the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 CO₂ emission scenario to examine impact on future wheat yields across key wheat growing regions considering different soil types in New South Wales (NSW) of Australia. The response of wheat yield, yield components, and phenology vary across sites and soil types, but yield is closely related to plant available water capacity (PAWC). Results show a decreasing yield trend during the period of 2021–2040 compared to the baseline period of 1961–1990. Across different wheat-growing regions in NSW, grain yield difference in the future period (2021–2040) over the baseline (1961–1990) varies from +3.4 to ?14.7 %, and in most sites, grain number is decreased, while grain size is increased in future climate. Reduction of wheat yield is mainly due to shorter growth duration, where average flowering and maturing time are advanced by an average of 11 and 12 days, respectively. In general, larger negative impacts of climate change are exhibited in those sites with higher PAWC. Current wheat cultivars with shorter growing season properties are viable in the future climate, but breading for early sowing wheat varieties with longer growing duration will be a desirable adaptation strategy for mitigating the impact of changing climate on wheat yield.  相似文献   

冀中南平原土壤氟地球化学特征及其控制因素   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

谷海峰  栾文楼  杜俊  陈志贤  蔡奎  李超 《物探与化探》2011,35(3):388-392

详细研究了冀中南平原土壤氟的地球化学特征,并探讨其控制因素。冀中南平原整体氟含量较高,且分布不均匀,具有明显分带性,分别出现4个高氟带和4个低氟带。氟在该区的分布明显受自然地理、地质因素和人为因素控制,且以自然地理、地质因素为主。在自然地理、地质因素中地貌起主导作用,而在人为因素中化肥为主导因素。  相似文献   

RegCM3模式在西北地区的应用研究I:对极端干旱事件的模拟   总被引：17，自引：1，他引：17  

鲍艳  吕世华  陆登荣  侯瑞卿 《冰川冻土》2006,28(2):164-174

为了检验区域气候模式RegCM3在西北地区的模拟能力,对2001年夏季西北地区极端干旱事件进行了模拟.结果表明:模式能很好地再现西北地区主要的环流特征和温度及降水的变化情况,主要的偏差在于高原上低压中心的模拟偏低,对西北东部对流层低层位势高度的模拟偏高.区域平均的温度模拟存在着1~3℃的冷偏差,偏差产生的原因与地表净辐射的负偏差有关.月降水量模拟远远偏大,最小的百分比偏差也达到了30%.模拟结果同时表明,由于受模式初始场的影响,6月降水和气温的模拟效果最差.RegCM3的模拟中还存在着许多问题,必须开展进一步的工作来提高模式的模拟效果,减少偏差.  相似文献   

天然河道洪水水面线推算中几个技术问题及处理方法          下载免费PDF全文

何书会  杨艳岭  赵建芬  赵哲 《水文》2014,34(5):36-38

天然多沙河道水面线的升降与河道平面形态、过水断面形状、河床粗糙度及河床植被、河床的扩展及收缩、河床组成及其冲淤变化等众多因素有关。以南水北调中线总干渠交叉河道水面线推算为例,分析了天然多沙河道水面线推算中尚需注意的几个技术问题,提出了解决问题的思路和具体的处理方法,具有示范作用,对类似河流的洪水水面线推算有一定的借鉴意义。  相似文献   

北京海坨山区低槽降雪云系演变特征的观测研究     

马新成  董晓波  毕凯  温典  陈云波  陈羿辰  麦榕 《气象学报》2021,79(3):428-442

2019年2月14日在北京海坨山地区出现了一次由低槽云系产成的降雪过程。利用飞机、Ka波段云雷达、微波辐射计、降水粒子谱仪、雪晶显微观测仪等协同观测数据集,分析了此次降雪过程的天气形势、中尺度和微观结构的演变特征。协同观测显示:（1）降雪过程由高空低槽和地面倒槽槽前西南暖湿气流与低层东风回流干冷偏东风共同影响形成,西南风厚度和强度与地面降雪量以及降雪粒子数浓度成正相关。（2）降雪云系为冰云,地面降雪形状主要为片状、枝状和柱状单晶体,冰雪晶的凝华-聚并增长是降雪的主要形成机制。（3）大量枝状雪花的攀附现象出现在地形云爬升阶段,即低层东风回流减弱,转由倒槽槽前西南暖湿气流控制。（4）过冷水的出现与地形抬升有关,地形云爬升期间存在人工增雪潜力。   相似文献