含沙量对草地坡面径流泥沙沉积和水力特性的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

潘成忠  马岚  上官周平 《水科学进展》2008,19(6):857-862

通过室内模拟试验,在坡度为3°和9°、流量为20和60L/min条件下研究了不同浓度(0～350kg/m3)含沙水流流经草地的泥沙沉积过程及其水力学特性。结果表明,坡面泥沙沉积量随含沙量的增加而增大,3°时泥沙沉积率与含沙量呈正相关,而9°时沉积率与含沙量呈反势。坡度对泥沙沉积影响显著,而在相同坡度条件下,两种流量试验的泥沙沉积量无明显差异。相同坡面坡上部位流速小于坡下部位,且含沙量对坡面流速影响较小。在相同坡度和流量条件下,水流雷诺数随含沙量的增大而减小。3°时水流阻力系数和曼宁糙率均随含沙量的增加而增大,而9°时含沙量对阻力影响不明显,因此在土壤侵蚀较严重地区进行坡面水文过程演算时需考虑含沙量对缓坡糙率的影响。  相似文献   

Impact of land-cover and climate changes on runoff of the source regions of the Yellow River     

LI Daofeng  TIAN Ying  LIU Changming  HAO Fanghua 《地理学报》2004,14(3):330-338

After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, the paper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of the observed yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulation results are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature and precipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth under different scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annual runoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2oC and precipitation increases by 20%, catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largest situation among all scenarios.  相似文献   

Dynamic assessment of pollution risk of groundwater source area in Northern China          下载免费PDF全文

LIU Shu-yuan  WANG Hong-qi 《地下水科学与工程》2016,4(4):333-343

Based on the dynamic analysis and research of pollution risk of groundwater sources, this paper creates the dynamic assessment method of pollution risk of groundwater source area under the theory of “source-pathway-receptor”, and applies this method to one typical fissure karst groundwater source area in northern China. Following the 30-year petroleum pollutant migration simulation and pollution risk assessment of groundwater source area, this study finds that the very high risk zone is mainly located in Q Petrochemical Company and the surrounding area and the area adjacent to River Z. Within this period of thirty years, the pollution risk of groundwater source area has showed a dynamic trend that features an inverted “V” shape. The ratio of very high risk zone to the total area will be 18.1%, 17.47% and 16.62% during the tenth year, the twentieth year and the thirtieth year separately, and will reach the highest level of 19.45% during the fifteenth year. Meanwhile, the vertical migration distance of pollutant centre concentration changed from the surface soil at the outset to the deepest point of about 250 meters underground during the tenth year. The results of this risk assessment indicate the dynamic feature of pollution risk. The dilution, degradation and migration of petroleum pollutants in groundwater system contribute to an ultimate decline in pollution risk.  相似文献   

黄河兰州以上气候要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17  

赵芳芳  徐宗学 《气象学报》2006,64(2):246-256

采用1960—2001年黄河流域兰州以上地区23个气象台站的气温、降水、日照时数和蒸发量4个气候要素的资料,分析了42年来兰州以上地区的气候变化和发展趋势。用非参数统计检验方法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了气候变化的长期变化趋势。结果表明,42年来全区平均变暖0.76℃,降水量、日照时数和蒸发量平均减少了17.89 mm,125.6 h和161.3 mm;用距平曲线法分析了气候变化的阶段性特征;用滑动T检验法(MTT法)、Ya-mamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均的区域季节和年时间序列进行突变检测,讨论了黄河流域兰州以上地区的气候变化问题。MTT法的检测结果表明,气温、降水量和日照时数分别在20世纪80年代的末期、中期和初期发生了突变,蒸发量除了发生在80年代的突变外,90年代也有一次超过0.01显著性水平的突变;Yamamoto法检测结果表明,20世纪80年代的气候突变最为明显,1981年春季蒸发量和1985年的年气温均出现了强突变,年蒸发量突变的S/N值的位相明显提前于其他3个气候要素突变S/N值的位相;Mann-Kendall法检测结果表明,各气候要素年和季的突变年份中,气温主要发生在20世纪90年代,蒸发量主要发生在20世纪60年代,日照时数主要发生在20世纪80年代。这一事实也说明检测方法不同,评价结果会存在一定差异。  相似文献   

Long-Term Trend and Abrupt Change for Major Climate Variables in the Upper Yellow River Basin   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

ZHAO Fangfang  XU Zongxue  HUANG Junxiong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2007,21(2):204-214

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, and pan evaporation from 23 meteorological stations in the upper Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2001, the feasibility of using hypothesis test techniques to detect the long-term trend for major climate variables has been investigated. Parametric tests are limited by the assumptions such as the normality and constant variance of the error terms. Nonparametric tests have not these additional assumptions and are better adapted to the trend test for hydro-meteorological time series. The possible trends of annual and monthly climatic time series are detected by using a non-parametric method and the abrupt changes have been examined in terms of 5-yr moving averaged seasonal and annual series by using moving T-test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method, and Mann-Kendall method. The results show that the annual mean temperature has increased by 0.8℃in the upper Yellow River Basin during the past 42 years. The warmest center was located in the northern part of the basin. The nonlinear tendency for annual precipitation was negative during the same period. The declining center for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the center of the basin. The variation of annual precipitation in the upper Yellow River Basin during the past 42 years exhibited an increasing tendency from 1972 to 1989 and a decreasing tendency from 1990 to 2001. The nonlinear tendencies for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were also negative. They have decreased by 125.6 h and 161.3 mm during the past 42 years, respectively. The test for abrupt changes by using MTT method shows that an abrupt wanning occurred in the late 1980s. An abrupt change of the annual mean precipitation occurred in the middle 1980s and an abrupt change of the mean sunshine duration took place in the early 1980s. For the annual mean pan evaporation, two abrupt changes took place in the 1980s and the early 1990s. The test results of the Yamamoto method show that the abrupt changes mostly occurred in the 1980s, and two acute abrupt changes were tested for the spring pan evaporation in 1981 and for the annual mean temperature in 1985. According to the Mann-Kendall method, the abrupt changes of the temperature mainly occurred in the 1990s, the pan evaporation abrupt changes mostly occurred in the 1960s, and the abrupt changes of the sunshine duration primarily took place in the 1980s. Although the results obtained by using three methods are different, it is undoubted that jumps have indeed occurred in the last four decades.  相似文献   

Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau—regional temperature and precipitation     

Z. X. Xu  T. L. Gong  J. Y. Li 《水文研究》2008,22(16):3056-3065

The Tibetan Plateau has one of the most complex climates in the world. Analysis of the climate in this region is important for understanding the climate change worldwide. In this study, climate patterns and trends in the Tibetan Plateau were analysed for the period from 1961 to 2001. Air temperature and precipitation were analysed on monthly and annual time scales using data collected from the National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration. Nonlinear slopes were estimated and analysed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of air temperature and precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau using a Mann–Kendall method. Spatial analysis of air temperature and precipitation variability across the Tibetan Plateau was undertaken. While most trends are local in nature, there are general basinwide patterns. Temperature during the last several decades showed a long‐term warmer trend, especially the areas around Dingri and Zogong stations, which formed two increasing centres. Only one of the stations investigated exhibited decreasing trend, and this was not significant. Precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau has increased in most regions of the study area over the past several decades, especially in the eastern and central part, while the western Tibetan Region exhibited a decreased trend over the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Crytic period analysis model of hydrological process and its application     

Hongrui Wang  Xin Lin  Longxia Qian 《水文研究》2009,23(13):1834-1843

It is difficult to analyse the crytic period of the hydrological process, because hydrological time series is probably characterized by heteroscedasticity. To find out the crytic period, a model is constructed as follows: (1) after using zero‐mean transformation for the data, to do Augmented Dickey–Fuller stationary test for the sequence, to build the corresponding AR(p) model and then to do ARCH effects test and white noise test for residual series; (2) for those time series that cannot pass through ARCH test, using logarithm transformation to reduce the heteroscedasticity, and then to redo step (1) until they pass through ARCH test and stationary test; (3) using periodogram analysis to determine all the possible the prime periods and further to put forward three kinds of tests to determine significance level of those prime periods. As examples, the hydrological processes of streamflow from 1784 to 1997 for the gauging stations of Alaer and Xinquman along Tarim River are analysed. After reducing their heteroscedasticity, AR(4) and AR(2) models are developed, respectively. Our results show that the streamflows from the two gauging stations have the same cryptic period of 42·7 years. Furthermore, the reliability for the crytic period model is testified by variance analysis, which shows that the crytic period model is useful and reliable. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Regime Shift: Insights from Two Simple Mechanistic Models     

Yong Liu  Donald Scavia 《Estuaries and Coasts》2010,33(3):629-639

Recent studies of Chesapeake Bay hypoxia suggest higher susceptibility to hypoxia in years after the 1980s. We used two simple mechanistic models and Bayesian estimation of their parameters and prediction uncertainty to explore the nature of this regime shift. Model estimates show increasing nutrient conversion efficiency since the 1980s, with lower DO concentrations and large hypoxic volumes as a result. In earlier work, we suggested a 35% reduction from the average 1980–1990 total nitrogen load would restore the Bay to hypoxic volumes of the 1950s–1970s. With Bayesian inference, our model indicates that, if the physical and biogeochemical processes prior to the 1980s resume, the 35% reduction would result in hypoxic volume averaging 2.7 km³ in a typical year, below the average hypoxic volume of 1950s–1970s. However, if the post-1980 processes persist the 35% reduction would result in much higher hypoxic volume averaging 6.0 km³. Load reductions recommended in the 2003 agreement will likely meet dissolved oxygen attainment goals if the Bay functions as it did prior to the 1980s; however, it may not reach those goals if current processes prevail.  相似文献   

Predicting lake water quality responses to load reduction: a three-dimensional modeling approach for total maximum daily load   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Z. Wang  R. Zou  X. Zhu  B. He  G. Yuan  L. Zhao  Y. Liu 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2014,11(2):423-436

Water quality restoration efforts often suffer the risk of ineffectiveness and failure due to lack of quantitative decision supports. During the past two decades, the restoration of one of China’s most heavily polluted lakes, Lake Dianchi, has experienced costly decision ineffectiveness with no detectable water quality improvement. The governments are planning to invest tremendous amount of funds in the next 5 years to continue the lake restoration process; however, without a quantitative understanding between the load reduction and the response in lake water quality, it is highly possible that these planned efforts would suffer the similar ineffectiveness as before. To provide scientifically sound decision support for guiding future load reduction efforts in Lake Dianchi Watershed, a sophisticated quantitative cause-and-effect response system was developed using a three-dimensional modeling approach. It incorporates the complex three dimensional hydrodynamics, fate and transport of nutrients, as well as nutrient-algae interactions into one holistic framework. The model results show that the model performs well in reproducing the observed spatial pattern and temporal trends in water quality. The model was then applied to three total maximum daily load scenarios and two refined restoration scheme scenarios to quantify phytoplankton responses to various external load reduction intensities. The results show that the algal bloom in Lake Dianchi responds to load reduction in a complex and nonlinear way, therefore, it is necessary to apply the developed system for future load reduction and lake restoration schemes for more informed decision making and effective management.  相似文献   

Shift trend and step changes for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin,northwest China     

Z. L. Li  Z. X. Xu  J. Y. Li  Z. J. Li 《水文研究》2008,22(23):4639-4646

Shift trend and step changes were detected for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin, one of the inland river basins in north‐west China. Annual runoff data from eight tributaries as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream from 1958 to 2003 were used. Seven statistical test methods were employed to identify the shift trends and step changes in the study. Mann–Kendall test, Spearman's Rho test, linear regression and Hurst exponent were used to detect past and future shift trends for runoff time series, while the distributed‐free CUSUM test, cumulative deviations and the Worsley likelihood ratio test were used to detect step changes for the same time series. Results showed that the annual runoff from Zamu, Huangyang and Gulang rivers, as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream, show statistically significant decreasing trends. Future tendency of runoff for both tributaries and mainstream were consistent with that from 1958 to 2003. Step changes probably occurred in 1961 for the runoff from Huangyang, Gulang and Dajing rivers according to the Worsley likelihood ratio test, but no similar results were found using the other two test methods. Three change points (1979, 1974 and 1973) were detected for the mainstream using different methods. These change points were close to the years that reservoirs started to be operated. Both climate change and human activities, especially the latter, contributed to the decreasing runoff in the study area. Between 21% and 79% of the reduction in runoff from the mainstream was due to the impact of human activities during the past few decades. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献