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1.
The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity. 相似文献
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《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2010,49(1-3):175-197
The problem of dynamically mapping high-frequency (HF) radar radial velocity observations is investigated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the San Diego coastal region and an adjoint-based assimilation method. The HF radar provides near-real-time radial velocities from three sites covering the region offshore of San Diego Bay. The hydrodynamical model is the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) with 1 km horizontal resolution and 40 vertical layers. The domain is centered on Point Loma, extending 117 km offshore and 120 km alongshore. The reference run (before adjustment) is initialized from a single profile of T and S and is forced with wind data from a single shore station and with zero heat and fresh water fluxes. The adjoint of the model is used to adjust initial temperature, salinity, and velocity, hourly temperature, salinity and horizontal velocities at the open boundaries, and hourly surface fluxes of momentum, heat and freshwater so that the model reproduces hourly HF radar radial velocity observations. Results from a small number of experiments suggest that the adjoint method can be successfully used over 10-day windows at coastal model resolution. It produces a dynamically consistent model run that fits HF radar data with errors near the specified uncertainties. In a test of the forecasting capability of the San Diego model after adjustment, the forecast skill was shown to exceed persistence for up to 20 h. 相似文献
4.
A projection of future sea level 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Johannes Oerlemans 《Climatic change》1989,15(1-2):151-174
Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible ice-flow instabilities (in particular on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and thermal expansion of ocean water.For a given temperature scenario, an attempt is made to estimate the different contributions. The calculation yields a figure of 9.5 cm of sea-level rise since 1850 AD, which is within the uncertainty range of estimates of the observed rise.A further 33 cm rise is found as most likely for the year 2050, but the uncertainty is very large ( = 32 cm). The contribution from melting of land ice is of the same order of magnitude as thermal expansion. The mass-balance effects of the major ice sheets tend to cancel to some extent (increasing accumulation on Antarctica, increasing ablation on Greenland). For the year 2100 a value of 66 cm above the present-day stand is found ( = 57 cm). The estimates of the standard deviation include uncertainty in the temperature scenario, as presented elsewhere in this volume. 相似文献
5.
M. R. Allen N. P. Gillett J. A. Kettleborough G. Hegerl R. Schnur P. A. Stott G. Boer C. Covey T. L. Delworth G. S. Jones J. F. B. Mitchell T. P. Barnett 《Surveys in Geophysics》2006,27(5):491-544
We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing. 相似文献
6.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2007,26(19-21):2617-2630
The linear dunes of the Kalahari, now largely inactive, have long been identified as having potential palaeoenvironmental significance. The application of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to these dunes in the 1990s provided the first chronology of aeolian accumulation in this region, though field methodologies and time-consuming multiple-aliquot laboratory protocols limited both the depth of sampling in dune bodies and the total number of samples dated.In order to permit a more thorough investigation of the potential of these dunes to preserve long chronological records, this intensive study presents 71 OSL ages from the linear dunes of the southwestern Kalahari at Witpan, South Africa, sampled with coring equipment at regular and frequent intervals down to bedrock.The earliest sand accumulation recorded at Witpan is at 104 ka, and in spatially discrete locations, other evidence of dune activity is recorded at 77–76, 57–52 and 35–27 ka. Although an inherently discontinuous archive, the linear dunes of the southwestern Kalahari have the potential to record multiple phases of dune construction. Following the Last Glacial Maximum there is near continuous evidence of dune-building, with a peak of accumulation recorded from 15 to 9 ka at five individual sites. This latter period is generally recognised from other proxy evidence as being unusually arid in this region, and such periods of dune activity are likely to be related to intensification of the continental anticyclone. During the Holocene, accumulation has continued at most sites sampled, albeit at a lesser intensity. This may imply that these dunes are presently not far from thresholds of activation. 相似文献
7.
Evaluation of ENVISAT ASAR data for sea surface wind retrieval in Hong Kong coastal waters of China 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
The C-band wind speed retrieval models, CMOD4, CMOD - IFR2, and CMOD5 were applied to retrieval of sea surface wind speeds from ENVISAT （European environmental satellite） ASAR （advanced synthetic aperture radar） data in the coastal waters near Hong Kong during a period from October 2005 to July 2007. The retrieved wind speeds are evaluated by comparing with buoy measurements and the QuikSCAT （quick scatterometer） wind products. The results show that the CMOD4 model gives the best performance at wind speeds lower than 15 m/s. The correlation coefficients with buoy and QuikSCAT winds are 0.781 and 0.896, respectively. The root mean square errors are the same 1.74 m/s. Namely, the CMOD4 model is the best one for sea surface wind speed retrieval from ASAR data in the coastal waters near Hong Kong. 相似文献
8.
A new set of approximations to the standard TEOS-10 equation of state are presented. These follow a polynomial form, making it computationally efficient for use in numerical ocean models. Two versions are provided, the first being a fit of density for Boussinesq ocean models, and the second fitting specific volume which is more suitable for compressible models. Both versions are given as the sum of a vertical reference profile (6th-order polynomial) and an anomaly (52-term polynomial, cubic in pressure), with relative errors of ∼0.1% on the thermal expansion coefficients. A 75-term polynomial expression is also presented for computing specific volume, with a better accuracy than the existing TEOS-10 48-term rational approximation, especially regarding the sound speed, and it is suggested that this expression represents a valuable approximation of the TEOS-10 equation of state for hydrographic data analysis. In the last section, practical aspects about the implementation of TEOS-10 in ocean models are discussed. 相似文献
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