北京连续降雪过程分析   总被引：22，自引：3，他引：22       下载免费PDF全文

王迎春钱婷婷  郑永光 《应用气象学报》2004,15(1):58-65

该文对2002年12月份北京出现的1841年以来历史上最长的连续6天的降雪天气进行了合成分析和诊断分析。北半球合成环流形势显示，连续降雪发生在东亚稳定的纬向环流形势下，其上游地区强大经向环流和阻塞高压使中纬度东亚和西太平洋纬向环流得以维持。东亚合成环流的垂直结构表明，连续降雪期间华北地区始终处于锋区中，并存在低空辐合、高空辐散的散度场垂直分布结构。卫星水汽云图显示出有水汽通道向河套倒槽云系输送水汽。华北地区的诊断分析表明，地面和边界层中山东地区分裂高压南侧向北回流的偏南气流是造成降雪的主要水汽通道。变形场的流场结构使水汽在北京附近辐合。垂直剖面展现了华北回流降雪天气近地面层的浅薄的冷空气垫，和暖湿空气回流在冷空气垫上的爬升，并在其上形成一个浅薄的饱和层。  相似文献   

相空间中划分大尺度异常雨型的初步研究   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

任宏利  高丽  张培群  李维京 《气象学报》2004,62(4):459-467

文中针对以往雨型研究中的不足 ,从动力学角度将相空间引入到大尺度异常雨型的划分 ,通过估计EOF相平面上的概率密度函数、并确定局部极大值区域来划分主要雨型。分析表明 ,新雨型不仅再现了传统的 3类雨型特征 ,还得到了其他分型 ,并且能够反映出异常降水分布的季节内低频变化 ;分别采用 10和 2 0d低通滤波数据划分的雨型形态比较接近 ,但其种类、持续性和季节内分布等特征存在一定差异 ;雨型的气候分布与季风雨带有一定对应关系 ,其形成与夏季风异常关系密切。通过对简单直观的二维相平面问题的探讨 ,不仅证实了在相空间中划分大尺度雨型的可行性 ,也为进一步在高维空间中讨论雨型问题提供了依据。  相似文献   

On the variability of the flow along the Meso-American Barrier Reef system: a numerical model study of the influence of the Caribbean current and eddies     

Tal Ezer  Deeptha V. Thattai  Björn Kjerfve  William D. Heyman 《Ocean Dynamics》2005,55(5-6):458-475

A high resolution (3–8 km grid), 3D numerical ocean model of the West Caribbean Sea (WCS) is used to investigate the variability and the forcing of flows near the Meso-American Barrier Reef System (MBRS) which runs along the coasts of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala and Honduras. Mesoscale variations in velocity and temperature along the reef were found in seasonal model simulations and in observations; these variations are associated with meandering of the Caribbean current (CC) and the propagation of Caribbean eddies. Diagnostic calculations and a simple assimilation technique are combined to infer the dynamically adjusted flow associated with particular eddies. The results demonstrate that when a cyclonic eddy (negative sea surface height anomaly (SSHA)) is found near the MBRS the CC shifts offshore, the cyclonic circulation in the Gulf of Honduras (GOH) intensifies, and a strong southward flow results along the reef. However, when an anticyclonic eddy (positive SSHA) is found near the reef, the CC moves onshore and the flow is predominantly westward across the reef. The model results help to explain how drifters are able to propagate in a direction opposite to the mean circulation when eddies cause a reversal of the coastal circulation. The effect of including the Meso-American Lagoon west of the Belize Reef in the model topography was also investigated, to show the importance of having accurate coastal topography in determining the variations of transports across the MBRS. The variations found in transports across the MBRS (on seasonal and mesoscale time scales) may have important consequences for biological activities along the reef such as spawning aggregations; better understanding the nature of these variations will help ongoing efforts in coral reef conservation and maintaining the health of the ecosystem in the region.  相似文献   

Predictive uncertainty of a nearshore bed evolution model     

《Continental Shelf Research》2005,25(9):1053-1069

Predictions of nearshore depth evolution using process-based numerical simulation models contain inherent uncertainties owing to model structural deficiencies, measurement errors, and parameter uncertainty. This paper quantifies the parameter-induced predictive uncertainty of the cross-shore depth evolution model Unibest-TC by applying the Bayesian Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology to modelling depth evolution at Egmond aan Zee (Netherlands). This methodology works with multiple sets of parameter values sampled uniformly in feasible parameter space and assigns a likelihood value to each parameter set. Acceptable simulations (i.e., based on parameter sets with a nonzero likelihood) were found for a wide range of parameter values owing to parameter interdependence and insensitivity. The 95% uncertainty prediction interval of bed levels after the 33 days prediction period was largest (0.5–1 m) near the sandbar crests that characterize the Egmond depth profile, reducing to near-zero values in the sandbar troughs and the offshore area. The prediction interval built up during storms (when sediment transport rates are largest) and remained the same or even reduced slightly during less-energetic conditions. The prediction uncertainty ranges bracket the observations near the inner-bar crest, its seaward flank, and at the seaward flank of the outer bar, suggesting that elsewhere model structural errors (and, potentially, measurement errors) dominate over parameter errors. The interdependence and the non-Gaussian marginal posterior distribution functions of the free model parameters cast doubt on the ability of commonly applied multivariate normal distribution functions to estimate parameter uncertainty.  相似文献   

利用卫星遥感资料反演感热和潜热通量的研究综述     

王开存  周秀骥  李维亮  刘晶淼  王普才 《地球科学进展》2005,20(1):42-048

区域平均感热和潜热通量是气象、水文、生态模式中的关键物理因子，卫星遥感反演为观测区域平均感热和潜热通量提供了可能。对利用卫星遥感资料反演地气通量的方法进行了总结和评述。首先描述了现在常用的反演方法，分析了方法中的各种假定对反演结果的影响，并对不同的模式反演结果进行了比较。还指出了评价卫星反演通量的精度时需要注意的问题。最后对该领域内现存的问题与发展方向进行探讨。  相似文献   

Holocene glacier history of Bjørnbreen and climatic reconstruction in central Jotunheimen,Norway, based on proximal glaciofluvial stream-bank mires     

《Quaternary Science Reviews》2005,24(1-2):67-90

Holocene variations of Bjørnbreen, Smørstabbtinden massif, west-central Jotunheimen are reconstructed from the lithostratigraphy of two alpine stream-bank mires flooded episodically by meltwater. The approach uses multiple sedimentological indicators (weight loss-on-ignition, mean grain size, grain-size fractions, bulk density, moisture content and magnetic susceptibility), an a priori model of overbank deposition of suspended glaciofluvial sediments, a detailed chronology based on 56 radiocarbon dates, and a Little Ice Age sedimentological analogue. Rapid, late-Preboreal deglaciation was indicated by immigration of Betula pubescens by 9700 cal. BP. An interval of at least 3000 years in the early Holocene when glaciers were absent was interrupted by two abrupt episodes of glacier expansion around the time of the Finse Event, the first at ca 8270–7900 cal. BP (Bjørnbreen I Event) and the second at ca 7770–7540 cal. BP (Bjørnbreen II Event). Neoglaciation began shortly before ca 5730 cal. BP with gradual build-up to the maximum of the Bjørnbreen III Event at ca 4420 cal. BP. Later maxima occurred at ca 2750 cal. BP (Bjørnbreen IV Event) and at 1300, 1260, 1060 and 790 cal. BP (all within the Bjørnbreen V Event). Glaciers were smaller than today and possibly melted away on several occasions in the late Holocene (ca 3950, 1410 and 750 cal. BP). Minor maxima also occurred at ca 660 and 540 cal. BP, within the late Mediaeval Warm Period and the early Little Ice Age, respectively. The Little Ice Age maximum was dated to 213±25 BP (ca 205 cal. BP). The relative magnitudes of the main glacier maxima were determined: Erdalen Event>Little Ice Age Event (Bjørnbreen VI)>Bjørnbreen I (Finse Event) ≈ Bjørnbreen II>Bjørnbreen V⩾Bjørnbreen IV>Bjørnbreen III. These episodic events of varying magnitude and abruptness were used in conjunction with an independent summer-temperature proxy to reconstruct variations in equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and a Holocene record of winter precipitation. Since the Preboreal, ELA varied within a range of about 390 m, and winter precipitation ranged between 40 and 160% of modern values. Winter precipitation variations appear to have been the main cause of these century- to millennial-scale Holocene glacier variations.  相似文献   

Metamorphic evolution of the Río Santa Rosa Granulites,northern Sierra de Comechingones,Argentina     

《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2005,18(2):163-181

Highly anhydrous granulites from Río Santa Rosa in the eastern Sierras Pampeanas of Argentina occur as a thick lens surrounded by melt-depleted migmatites. Grt–Crd granulite composed of Qtz+Pl+Grt+Crd+Ilm±Spl±Ath±Phl is the dominant rock, whereas Opx–Grt granulite appears as discontinuous lenses in the center of the granulite body. Grt–Crd granulite includes blocks of metabasite that are relics of refractory lithologic beds interlayered in the supracrustal sequence. A distinct assemblage composed of Qtz, Pl, Grt, Crd, Opx, Spl, Crn, Sil, Bt, Phl, Ath, and Fe–Ti oxides in different combinations was generated in a reaction zone between Grt–Crd granulites and metabasites at peak metamorphism (850–900 °C and 7.6±0.5 kbar). The P–T trajectory of Grt–Crd granulites suggests an early prograde garnet-forming stage followed by nearly isothermal decompression that caused garnet breakdown. Melting and melt draining accompanying garnet growth was active during heating (to 900 °C) at intermediate pressures (∼7.6 kbar). Peak P–T estimates for Opx–Grt granulites are similar to those obtained with Grt–Crd granulites, which indicates that both granulites passed through the highest thermal stage. These results constrain the late evolution of Opx–Grt granulite to a garnet-consuming stage. Furthermore, they imply that garnet formation in Opx–Grt granulite happened at an early prograde P–T trajectory. Garnet growth in Opx–Grt granulite cannot result from heating at high pressure, which would lead to an apparent contradiction in the prograde P–T paths of the two granulites. This discrepancy may be solved by demonstrating that Opx–Grt granulite is the product of synmetamorphic mafic magmatism that was contaminated while cooling. The Río Santa Rosa granulites are inferred to have formed in a thickened crust in which mafic magmatic activity providing a local heat input.  相似文献   

AMS 14C dating of deglacial events in the Irish Sea Basin and other sectors of the British–Irish ice sheet     

《Quaternary Science Reviews》2005,24(14-15):1673-1690

Sedimentary sequences deposited by the decaying marine margin of the British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) record isostatic depression and successive ice sheet retreat towards centres of ice dispersion. Radiocarbon dating by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) of in situ marine microfaunas that are commonly associated with these sequences constrain the timing of glacial and sea level fluctuations during the last deglaciation, enabling us to evaluate the dynamics of the BIIS and its response to North Atlantic climate change. Here we use our radiocarbon-dated stratigraphy to define six major glacial and sea level events since the Last Glacial Maximum. (1) Initial deglaciation may have occurred ⩾18.3 kyr ¹⁴C BP along the northwestern Irish coast, in agreement with a deglacial age of ∼22 ³⁶Cl kyr BP for southwestern Ireland. Ice retreated to inland centres and areas of transverse moraine began to form across the north Irish lowlands. (2) Channels cut into glaciomarine deglacial sediments along the western Irish Sea coast are graded to below present sea level, identifying a fall of relative sea level (RSL) in response to isostatic emergence of the coast. (3) Marine mud that rapidly infilled these channels records an abrupt rise in global sea level of 10–15 m ∼16.7 ¹⁴C kyr BP that flooded the Irish Sea coast and may have triggered deglaciation of a marine-based margin in Donegal Bay. (4) Intertidal boulder pavements in Dundalk Bay indicate that RSL ∼15.0 ¹⁴C kyr BP was similar to present. (5) A major readvance of all sectors of the BIIS occurred between 14 and 15 kyr ¹⁴C BP which overprinted subglacial transverse moraines and delivered a substantial sediment flux to tidewater ice sheet margins. This event, the Killard Point Stadial, indicates that the BIIS participated in Heinrich event 1. (6) Subsequent deposition of marine muds on drumlins 12.7 ¹⁴C kyr BP indicates isostatic depression and attendant high RSL resulting from the Killard Point readvance. These events identify a dynamic BIIS during the last deglaciation, as well as significant changes in RSL that reflect a combination of isostatic loading and eustatic changes in global sea level.  相似文献   

On the hemispheric origins of meltwater pulse 1a     

《Quaternary Science Reviews》2005,24(14-15):1655-1671

During the glacial–interglacial transition that began subsequent to the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, globally averaged (eustatic) sea-level rose by approximately 120 m as climate warmed to its current (Holocene) state. This rise of relative sea-level (RSL) did not occur smoothly, however, but was characterized by the occurrence of one or more episodes of extremely rapid increase. The most extreme of these events has come to be referred to as meltwater pulse 1a, and was initially identified in the coral based record of RSL history from the island of Barbados in the Caribbean Sea. Although it has usually been assumed that this episode of rapid RSL rise was derivative of a partial collapse of the northern hemisphere ice sheets, it has recently been suggested that this pulse could have originated in a dramatic melt-back of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In this paper the arguments presented in favour of the southern hemisphere source are revisited in order to assess the plausibility of this alternative scenario.Based upon the analyses presented, it is concluded that the evidence previously provided in support of the southern hemisphere scenario is in fact unable to rule out an entirely northern hemisphere source for the meltwater pulse 1a. Since explicit evidence does exist that both the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets contributed to this event and that Antarctic ice sheet melting occurred significantly later, the southern hemisphere appears not to have been a prime mover of northern hemisphere events.  相似文献   

Geochronology of granulites from the south Itabuna-Salvador-Curaçá Block,São Francisco Craton (Brazil): Nd isotopes and U–Pb zircon ages     

Jean-Jacques Peucat  Johildo Salomão Figueiredo Barbosa  Ivana Conceição de Araújo Pinho  Jean-Louis Paquette  Hervé Martin  C. Mark Fanning  Angela Beatriz de Menezes Leal  Simone Cruz 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2011,31(4):397-413

This work provides five new U–Pb zircon dating and the corresponding Nd isotope data for felsic granulites from the south Itabuna-Salvador-Curaçá Block (ISCB), in the São Francisco Craton, Brazil. Three major sets of felsic granulites can be recognised. The oldest set is tonalitic in composition and of TTG affinity. It is Archaean in age with magmatic zircon cores dated at 2675 ± 11 Ma by LA-ICPMS and up to ca 2.7–2.9 Ga by SHRIMP on an other sample. It exhibits epsilon Nd values between ?8 and ?11 at 2.1 Ga. This Nd signature is similar to that of granulites found in the western Archaean Jequié Block. Cartographically, this set of Archaean terrains represents at least 50% of the granulites in the studied area. The second set corresponds to a Palaeoproterozoic calc-alkaline tonalitic suite with zircon ages from 2019 ± 19 Ma to 2191 ± 10 Ma and epsilon Nd values between ?3 and ?4 at 2.1 Ga, corresponding partially to a newly formed crust. The third set of granulites is also Palaeoproterozoic. It is shoshonitic to monzonitic in composition and synchronous with the high grade metamorphism dated by metamorphic zircons at 2086 ± 7 Ma (average of five samples). The Nd isotope signature for this alkaline set is similar to that of the Palaeoproterozoic calc-alkaline one. Nd isotopes appear to be a very efficient tool to distinguish Archaean from Palaeoproterozoic felsic protoliths in granulitic suites of the Itabuna-Salvador-Curaçá Block (ISCB). Finally, the southern part of the ISCB is composed of a mixture of Archaean and Palaeoproterozoic protoliths, in similar amounts, suggesting that it was probably an active margin between 2.1 and 2.2 Ga located on the eastern border of the Archaean Jequié Block. A major crustal thickening process occurred at ca 2.09 Ga in the ISCB and seems significantly younger towards the west, in the Jequié granulites, where an average of 2056 ± 9 Ma is determined for the high grade event.  相似文献