Evaluations and Ensemble Approaches of Western-Pacific Subtropical High and South-Asian High Ensemble Forecasting in GRAPES-GEPS     

Li Gao  Pengfei Ren  Fang Zhou  Jiawen Zheng  Hongli Ren 《地球科学进展》1986,35(7):715-730

Based on the operational standard indices, the prediction skills of the Western-Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and South-Asian High (SAH) using 2019 real-time forecasts derived from the Global Ensemble Prediction System of GRAPES (GRAPES-GEPS) in China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Numerical Prediction Center were evaluated and the effects of different ensemble approaches on the prediction skills of WPSH and SAH indices were further investigated in this study. The results show that for WPSH, the GRAPES-GEPS has its highest prediction skill for the ridge line index, considerably high skill for the intensity and area indices, but relatively low skill for the western boundary index, and for SAH, it has comparatively high skill for the intensity and center latitude indices, but relatively lower skill for the center longitude index. Prediction errors of the GRAPES-GEPS for the WPSH forecasts are featured by the weaker intensity and area and the more eastward center position, compared with the observation, which can be effectively reduced by employing the maximum/minimum approach from ensemble members, relative to the ensemble mean approach. By direct comparison, prediction errors of the GRAPES-GEPS for the SAH forecasts are featured by the weaker intensity and the more southward center position, which tends to be slightly reduced using the ensemble mean approach. Finally, for the extreme forecast, the maximum approach provides superior performance for both WPSH and SAH than the ensemble mean approach, which can be validated in terms of the two extreme cases. These results clearly indicate that the maximum approach could better improve the GRAPES-GEPS performance for the extreme forecasting of the two primary circulation patterns than the traditional ensemble mean approach.  相似文献   

登陆北上减弱的台风所导致的暴雨——半热带系统暴雨   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

蒋尚城  张镡  周鸣盛  刘盎然 《气象学报》1981,39(1):18-27

分析了登陆北上减弱的7805号台风在华北所产生的暴雨过程。指出:在中低纬系统相互作用下,导致暴雨的系统具有半热带性质。讨论了半热带气旋和半热带锋区的特征,并比较了大陆半热带气旋与海洋半热带气旋的不同,强调进一步研究半热带天气系统是重要的。  相似文献   

Atmospheric Environmental Capacity of SO2 in Winter over Lanzhou in China： A Case Study     

安兴琴  左洪超  陈丽娟 《大气科学进展》2007,24(4):688-699

The total emission control method based on atmospheric environmental capacity is the most effective in air pollution mitigation. The atmospheric environmental capacities of SO2 on representative days over Lanzhou are estimated using the numerical models RAMS, HYPACT and a linear programming model, according to the national ambient air quality standard of China （NAAQSCHN）. The results show that the fields of meteorological elements and SO2 simulated by the models agree reasonably well with observations. The atmospheric environmental capacity of SO2 over Lanzhou is around 111.7 × 10^3 kg d^-1, and in order to meet the air quality level Ⅱ of the NAAQSCHN, SO2 emissions need to be reduced by 20%.  相似文献   

2001—2018年北京地区暴雪天气雷达回波特征分析     

吴剑坤  黄初龙  雷蕾 《气象科技》2021,49(1):107-113

利用2001—2018年北京市20个国家级气象站冬季降水资料、常规气象观测资料和北京新一代天气雷达资料,在统计分析北京地区暴雪天气过程的气候和环流特征的基础上,对雷达回波特征进行分析。结果表明:北京地区出现暴雪的天气形势主要有四种,分别是低涡低槽型,地面倒槽型,横槽型和回流型,其中低涡低槽型最多。按照雷达回波类型划分,北京暴雪一般可以分为混合型和层状云型,混合型占多数,回波形态呈片絮状,最强反射率因子可达35dBz以上,回波顶高在4km以上。速度场上,大部分个例出现较为明显的“牛眼”结构,且全部是边界层低空急流,该低空急流的存在对暴雪的产生和维持至关重要。该研究结果可为冬季暴雪天气过程的业务预报服务提供参考。  相似文献   

气候变化对生态保护工程的影响     

李泽椿  郭安红  延昊  钱拴  张国平  侯英雨  王月冬 《气候变化研究进展》2015,11(3):179-184

通过分析1978-2013年三北（东北、西北、华北）防护林建设区降水、气温等气象要素变化与植被生态质量的相互关系,以及1961-2013年我国主要草原区气象要素变化与草原生产力的相互关系,指出2000年以来北方降水增多导致三北防护林地区植被生态质量持续好转,且2000年以来在降水增加、生态工程实施的情况下,北方草原生态恶化的局面有所改变。进一步根据RCPs排放情景和预估的我国未来气候变化,指出未来30～60年我国北方地区气候呈现暖湿化趋势,利于巩固和扩大三北防护林和草原生态建设成果,缩短生态恢复的时间;但气候增暖会增加森林和草原火灾及病虫害的发生范围和频率。在对策上,指出应充分利用北方气候暖湿化的正效应,加快三北防护林建设和北方草原生态恢复;同时加强防护林和草原适应气候变化和防灾减灾的科学研究。  相似文献   

Effects of sediment mixing on 10Be concentrations in the Zielbach catchment,central-eastern Italian Alps     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2014

Basin-wide erosion rates can be determined through the analysis of in situ-produced cosmogenic nuclides. In transient landscapes, and particularly in mountain catchments, erosion and transport processes are often highly variable and consequently the calculated erosion rates can be biased. This can be due to sediment pulses and poor mixing of sediment in the stream channels. The mixing of alluvial sediment is one of the principle conditions that need to be verified in order to have reliable results. In this paper we perform a field-based test of the extent of sediment mixing for a ∼42 km² catchment in the Alps using concentrations of river-born ¹⁰Be. We use this technique to assess the mechanisms and the spatio-temporal scales for the mixing of sediment derived from hillslopes and tributary channels. The results show that sediment provenance and transport, and mixing processes have a substantial impact on the ¹⁰Be concentrations downstream of the confluence between streams and tributary channels. We also illustrate that the extent of mixing significantly depends on: the sizes of the catchments involved, the magnitude of the sediment delivery processes, the downstream distance of a sample site after a confluence, and the time since the event occurred. In particular, continuous soil creep and shallow landsliding supply high ¹⁰Be concentration material from the hillslope, congruently increasing the ¹⁰Be concentrations in the alluvial sediment. Contrariwise, a high frequency of mass-wasting processes or the occurrence of sporadic but large-magnitude events results in the supply of low-concentration sediment that lowers the cosmogenic nuclide concentration in the channels. The predominance of mass-wasting processes in a catchment can cause a strong bias in detrital cosmogenic nuclide concentrations, and therefore calculated erosion rates may be significantly over- or underestimated. Accordingly, it is important to sample as close as possible to the return-period of large-size sediment input events. This will lead to an erosion rate representative of the “mass-wasting signal” in case of generally high-frequency events, or the “background signal” when the event is sporadic. Our results suggest that a careful consideration of the extent of mixing of alluvial sediment is of primary importance for the correct estimation of ¹⁰Be-based erosion rates in mountain catchments, and likewise, that erosion rates have to be interpreted cautiously when the mixing conditions are unknown or mixing has not been achieved.  相似文献   

暴雨及其衍生灾害的三维影视模拟技术初探     

王昊宇 《气象与环境学报》2014,30(6):169-172

由于暴雨常具有和危险性,难以及时拍摄到暴雨灾害的现场画面,本文基于大气降水粒子的物理特征,采用Maya、Reanlflow、AfterEffects、Premier等软件运用刚体碰撞、流体、粒子等动画技术,对暴雨及其引发的城市积涝、山体滑坡和泥石流灾害的发生和演变过程进行影视模拟,初步建立了相关技术流程及技术指标,可用于指导气象灾害类科普影视节目的制作,宣传防灾减灾知识。  相似文献   

Mechanism and effects of the increase in winter temperatures in the Arctic region on cold winters in Heilongjiang Province,Northeast China for the period 1961–2018     

WANG Xiaodi  LI Yongsheng  ZHANG Lijuan  SONG Shuaifeng  PAN Tao  REN Chong  TAN Yulong 《地理学报(英文版)》2022,32(2):225-240

With the advent of climate change,winter temperatures have been steadily in-creasing in the middle-to-high latitudes of the world.However,we have not found a corre-sponding decrease in the number of extremely cold winters.This paper,based on Climatic Research Unit (CRU) re-analysis data,and methods of trend analysis,mutation analysis,correlation analysis,reports on the effects of Arctic warming on winter temperatures in Hei-longjiang Province,Northeast China.The results show that:(1) during the period 1961-2018,winter temperatures in the Arctic increased considerably,that is,3.5 times those of the Equator,which has led to an increasing temperature gradient between the Arctic and the Equator.An abrupt change in winter temperatures in the Arctic was observed in 2000.(2) Due to the global warming,an extremely significant warming occurred in Heilongjiang in winter,in particular,after the Arctic mutation in 2000,although there were two warm winters,more cold winters were observed and the interannual variability of winter temperature also increased.(3)Affected by the warming trend in the Arctic,the Siberian High has intensified,and both the Arctic Vortex and the Eurasian Zonal Circulation Index has weakened.This explains the de-crease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang,and why cold winters still dominate.Moreover,the increase in temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator is another reason for the decrease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang.  相似文献   

温度对东北草原区亚洲飞蝗孵化的影响          下载免费PDF全文

乐章燕  白月明  刘玲  王培娟  高素华 《气象与环境学报》2013,29(5):144-147

为了阐明东北草原亚洲飞蝗孵化进程与热量条件的关系,利用人工气候箱进行了温度和积温对亚洲飞蝗越冬卵孵化影响的试验研究。结果表明：出蝻数、出蝻率、累积出蝻数、累积出蝻率均随日平均气温升高而增大。日最低温度连续3 d稳定通过25 ℃时,蝗虫开始萌动、孵化;在26.0 ℃左右时孵化最快。低于25.0 ℃时,蝗虫出蝻速率缓慢。25.0 ℃以上有效积温达到11.6 ℃•d,活动积温达到211.6 ℃•d时,蝗卵开始孵化出土。当有效积温增加到20 ℃•d,活动积温320 ℃•d后,孵化速度回落,紧接着达到第二个孵化小高峰,然后孵化过程结束。  相似文献   

基于次序权重平均法的购房选择地理空间多准则决策     

胡卓玮  刘晓旭  彭程  魏铼 《地理研究》2013,32(3):476-486

居民的购房选择是对居住区位进行选择的复杂过程,其实质是居住空间的个人行为决策问题。在调研工作基础上,论文分析并构建了居民购房选择决策评价指标体系,以北京市为实验区应用GIS制作居住适宜性基础准则(指标)地图。研究一种可以适应购房者差异化的购房需求与偏好的购房地理空间决策方法,通过层次分析法提取购房个体的偏好信息,确定个人准则权重。采用次序加权平均算法(Ordered Weighted Averaging,OWA)针对个人准则权重计算个人次序权重,结合二者对居住适宜性基础准则地图进行集结,计算多种决策风险下的个人居住适宜性准则地图,对意向住房进行分析评价,动态生成相应决策方案,为购房者提供购房决策支持,减少主观意愿与客观环境带来的决策风险。最后通过一个实验对以上方法进行实现。  相似文献