Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Xiaolan L. Wang  Y. Feng  G. P. Compo  V. R. Swail  F. W. Zwiers  R. J. Allan  P. D. Sardeshmukh 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(11-12):2775-2800

An objective cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) 6-hourly mean sea level pressure fields for the period 1871–2010 to infer historical trends and variability in extra-tropical cyclone activity. The tracking algorithm is applied both to the ensemble-mean analyses and to each of the 56 ensemble members individually. The ensemble-mean analyses are found to be unsuitable for accurately determining cyclone statistics. However, pooled cyclone statistics obtained by averaging statistics from individual members generally agree well with statistics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses for 1951–2010, although 20CR shows somewhat weaker cyclone activity over land and stronger activity over oceans. Both reanalyses show similar cyclone trend patterns in the northern hemisphere (NH) over 1951–2010. Homogenized pooled cyclone statistics are analyzed for trends and variability. Conclusions account for identified inhomogeneities, which occurred before 1949 in the NH and between 1951 and 1985 in the southern hemisphere (SH). Cyclone activity is estimated to have increased slightly over the period 1871–2010 in the NH. More substantial increases are seen in the SH. Notable regional and seasonal variations in trends are evident, as is profound decadal or longer scale variability. For example, the NH increases occur mainly in the mid-latitude Pacific and high-latitude Atlantic regions. For the North Atlantic-European region and southeast Australia, the 20CR cyclone trends are in agreement with trends in geostrophic wind extremes derived from in-situ surface pressure observations. European trends are also consistent with trends in the mean duration of wet spells derived from rain gauge data in Europe.  相似文献   

An Ensemble Study of a January 2010 Coronal Mass Ejection (CME): Connecting a Non-obvious Solar Source with Its ICME/Magnetic Cloud     

D. F. Webb  M. M. Bisi  C. A. de Koning  C. J. Farrugia  B. V. Jackson  L. K. Jian  N. Lugaz  K. Marubashi  C. Möstl  E. P. Romashets  B. E. Wood  H.-S. Yu 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4173-4208

A distinct magnetic cloud (MC) was observed in-situ at the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO)-B on 20?–?21 January 2010. About three days earlier, on 17 January, a bright flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) were clearly observed by STEREO-B, which suggests that this was the progenitor of the MC. However, the in-situ speed of the event, several earlier weaker events, heliospheric imaging, and a longitude mismatch with the STEREO-B spacecraft made this interpretation unlikely. We searched for other possible solar eruptions that could have caused the MC and found a faint filament eruption and the associated CME on 14?–?15 January as the likely solar source event. We were able to confirm this source by using coronal imaging from the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/EUVI and COR and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronograph (LASCO) telescopes and heliospheric imaging from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) and the STEREO/Heliospheric Imager instruments. We use several empirical models to understand the three-dimensional geometry and propagation of the CME, analyze the in-situ characteristics of the associated ICME, and investigate the characteristics of the MC by comparing four independent flux-rope model fits with the launch observations and magnetic-field orientations. The geometry and orientations of the CME from the heliospheric-density reconstructions and the in-situ modeling are remarkably consistent. Lastly, this event demonstrates that a careful analysis of all aspects of the development and evolution of a CME is necessary to correctly identify the solar counterpart of an ICME/MC.  相似文献   

International decade for the natural disaster reduction panel, 6 August 1991, Perugia,Italy     

James F. Lander 《Natural Hazards》1994,9(1-2):277-279

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Dynamics in prestressed media with moving phase boundaries: a continuum theory of failure in solids     

C. B. Archambeau  J. B. Minster 《Geophysical Journal International》1978,52(1):65-96

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Comments on the paper ‘interplanetary origin of electric fields in the magneosphere’ by A. Nishida     

K. Kawasaki 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1973,24(2):449-454

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Gas-Mixing Techniques in Thermomagnetic Analysis     

Edwin E. Larson  Richard P. Hoblitt  Donald E. Watson 《Geophysical Journal International》1975,43(2):607-620

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The mesoscale convection life cycle: Building block or prototype for large-scale tropical waves?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Brian Mapes  Stefan Tulich  Jialin Lin  Paquita Zuidema 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2006,42(1-4):3

A cumulonimbus cloud may ascend and spawn its anvil cloud, precipitation, and downdrafts within an hour or so. This paper inquires why a similar progression of events (life cycle) is observed for tropical weather fluctuations with time scales of hours, days, and even weeks. Regressions using point data illustrate the characteristic unit of rain production: the mesoscale convective system (MCS), covering tens of kilometers and lasting several hours, with embedded convective rain cells. Meanwhile, averages over larger spatial areas indicate a self-similar progression from shallow to deep convection to stratiform anvils on many time scales.Synthetic data exercises indicate that simple superpositions of fixed-structure MCS life cycles (the Building Block hypothesis) cannot explain why longer period life cycles are similar. Rather, it appears that an MCS may be a small analogue or prototype of larger scale waves. Multiscale structure is hypothesized to occur via a Stretched Building Block conceptual model, in which the widths (durations) of zones of shallow, deep, and stratiform anvil clouds in MCSs are modulated by larger scale waves.Temperature (T) and humidity (q) data are examined and fed into an entraining plume model, in an attempt to elucidate their relative roles in these large-scale convection zone variations. T profile variations, with wavelengths shorter than troposphere depth, appear important for high-frequency ( 2–5-day period) convectively coupled waves, as density directly links convection (via buoyancy) and large-scale wave dynamics (via restoring force). Still, the associated q anomalies are several times greater than adiabatic, suggesting a strong amplification by shallow convective feedbacks. For lower frequency (intraseasonal) variability, q anomalies are considerably larger compared to T, and may be dominant.  相似文献   

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways     

Amy Solomon  Sang-Ik Shin  Michael A. Alexander  Julian P. McCreary 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(2-3):315-331

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.  相似文献   

Tests of predicted downstream transport of clasts in turbulent flow     

《Advances in water resources》2003,26(11):1205-1211

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Time-dependent convection at high latitudes     

D. W. Idenden  R. J. Moffett  S. Quegan  T. J. Fuller-Rowell 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,14(11):1159-1169

A fully time-dependent ionospheric convection model, in which electric potentials are derived by an analytic solution of Laplaces equation, is described. This model has been developed to replace the empirically derived average convection patterns currently used routinely in the Sheffield/SEL/UCL coupled thermosphere/ionosphere/plasmasphere model (CTIP) for modelling disturbed periods. Illustrative studies of such periods indicate that, for the electric field pulsation periods imposed, long-term averages of parameters such as Joule heating and plasma density have significantly different values in a time-dependent model compared to those derived under the same mean conditions in a steady-state model. These differences are indicative of the highly non-linear nature of the processes involved.  相似文献