排序方式： 共有189条查询结果，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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本文采用GIS栅格插值的常用方法,反距离权重法(IDW),样条函数法(Spline),克里金法(Kriging),协同克里金法(Co-Kriging),泰森多边形法(Thissen)对2013年7月8～11日都江堰特大暴雨过程进行面雨量计算的对比分析,并用FLood Area模型对此次过程中白沙河流域的暴雨洪涝过程进行模拟,结果显示:5种面雨量计算方法的结果受雨量站密集程度和降水空间分布特征的制约,特别是样条函数法和泰森多边形法,对雨量站分布影响较为敏感;小时面雨量计算中站点分布对样条函数法影响更大;协同克里金法计算面雨量可使FLood Area模拟结果更优,更接近于真实值;在复杂地形条件下面雨量计算中,考虑地形的相关影响可有效提高降水插值精度,使Flood Area模型的模拟结果误差更小。 相似文献
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本文选取2014年6～9月西南区域模式产品的每日20 h (北京时)起报的00 h～24 h降水量、相关物理量及成都地区实况降水量。首先利用领域法建立高分辨率模式与稀疏站点对应关系,其次比较领域内的降水量分级传统技巧评分以及强降水(25mm以上)与模式物理量阈值进行概率分析,得出强降水物理量阈值,最后通过个例对模式物理量阈值进行检验。得出如下研究结论:降水量分级评分结果表明模式对成都地区有无降水预报总体效果较好;TS评分随着预报降水量级增大而减小,同时模式空报率高于漏报率;而暴雨及暴雨以上量级降水混合评分为11.6%,具有一定的参考性。强降水与模式物理量阈值概率分析表明模式对强降水有一定的预报能力,但量级、落区相对较差。两次降水个例物理量阈值均满足以暴雨、暴雨以上降水为主的条件。 相似文献
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Stable isotope exchange processes between solid and liquid phases of a natural melting snowpack are investigated in detail by separating the liquid water from snow grains at different depths of the snowpack and collecting the bottom discharge using a lysimeter. In the melting–freezing mass exchange process between the two phases, the theoretical slope of the δD? δ18O line for newly refrozen ice is calculated to be nearly that of pore water. However, based on observations of the isotopic evolution and snow grain coarsening of the snowpack, it is demonstrated that the slope of the δD? δ18O line for newly refrozen ice is equal to that of the original ice. This is proved to be due to preferential water flow in the snowpack, which leads to relatively more deuterium and less oxygen‐18 in the mobile water than the immobile water because of the kinetic effect. Higher mass exchange rate in the mobile water region results in excess deuterium in the bulk refrozen ice, compared with the fractionation of uniform fractionation factors and exchange rate. This effect, which is termed the ‘preferential exchange rate effect of isotopic fractionation’, is shown to be larger in the lower part than the upper part of the snowpack. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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在总结前人对商周遗址中青铜器研究的基础上,通过对成都金沙遗址出土青铜器的铅同位素和主要金属元素含量的测定,分析讨论了金沙青铜器的化学特征及可能的矿质来源。通过对测定结果的分析认为：青铜器的冶炼过程中人为进行铜铅锡含量配比的迹象并不明显,更多体现出直接利用多金属矿的结果;金沙遗址中青铜器的铅同位素值大部分异常高,表现出N（206Pb）/N（204Pb）大于20。根据区域地质资料和前人对多金属矿床的研究结果,认为金沙青铜器的铜矿石极有可能来自于距离较近的会理拉拉厂铜矿。 相似文献
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在深入剖析SMS （Supervisor Monitor Scheduler）技术架构的基础上,分析了GRAPES （Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Systesm）数值预报的特点,并对GRAPES传统运行技术和基于SMS技术的运行流程做了对比。运用SMS技术构建了客户端/服务器结构的GRAPES数值预报作业自动化系统,对GRAPES数值预报模式运行的流程做了详尽的划分,将功能类似GRAPES模式的模块组合在一起,在实施过程中将复杂的单一模块拆分成多个任务,把单个任务的功能简单化,以图形化界面直观的显示模式运行流程,实现了GRAPES预报模式作业流程的自动化,极大的提高GRAPES模式业务运行能力,保证模式运行的可靠性和时效性。 相似文献
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“5.12”汶川特大地震形成了震区大量的震裂不稳定斜坡,其中绝大部分发生在厚层堆积层斜坡中,这类次生地质灾害有着特殊的力学破坏机制.以小金县某不稳定斜坡为例,研究了高程、地形坡度、岩土体结构条件等对斜坡动力响应的影响,初步分析了厚层堆积层震裂斜坡的变形特征及破坏机制.认为,在地震动力作用下厚层堆积物斜坡往往出现潜在多级滑动面的现象,且破裂面多沿着堆积层中某些曲面发生滑动破坏,这与地震瞬间拉张破坏在斜坡体中产生的震裂缝深度和延伸有关.总的来说,震裂不稳定斜坡的失稳可以认为是地震使边坡岩土体力学参数降低、震后地下水的软化共同作用下累计破坏的结果. 相似文献
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The Uncertainty of Mesoscale Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in South China and the Ensemble Simulations? 
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下载免费PDF全文 In the context of non-hydrostatic MM5 version we have explored the impact of convective parameterization schemes on uncertainty in mesoscale numerical prediction of South China heavy rain and mesoscale heavy rainfall short-range ensemble simulation by using two kinds of physics perturbation methods through a heavy rain case occurring on June 8, 1998 in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces. The results show the physical process of impacts of convective schemes on heavy rainfall is that different latent heat of convective
condensation produced by different convective schemes can make local temperature perturbation, leading to the difference of local vertical speed by the intrinsic dynamic and thermodynamic processes of atmosphere,and therefore, making difference of the timing, locations and strength of mesh scale and subgrid scale precipitation later. New precipitations become the new source of latent heat and temperature perturbation,which finally make the dynamic and thermodynamic structures different in the simulations. Two kinds of
methods are used to construct different model version stochastically. The first one is using different convective parameterization and planetary boundary layer schemes, the second is adjusting different parameters of convective trigger functions in Grell scheme. The results indicate that the first ensemble simulations can provide more uncertainty information of location and strength of heavy rainfall than the second. The single determinate predictions of heavy rain are unstable; physics ensemble predictions can reflect the uncertainty of heavy rain, provide more useful guidance and have higher application value.Physics ensembles suggest that model errors should be taken into consideration in the heavy rainfall ensembles. Although the method of using different parameters in Grell scheme could not produce good results, how to construct the perturbation model or adjust the parameter in one scheme according to the
physical meaning of the parameter still needs further investigation. The limitation of the current study is that it is based on a single case and more cases will be addressed in the future researches. 相似文献
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重力波对青藏高原东侧一次暴雨过程的影响 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
采用WRF（weather research and forecasting）模式输出资料、NCEP/NCAR1°×1°再分析资料以及地面站降水资料,对2009年7月31日至8月1日四川省一次暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明：水汽辐合区与降水区基本一致;散度场、水汽通量和水汽通量散度对降水具有较好的指示作用。在降水之前的6h中,降水中心上空的大气层结基本稳定,这种层结条件并不利于对流运动发生和发展;但是通过对散度场、非线性平衡方程和理查森数的分析,发现在暴雨开始前存在着中尺度重力波,它激发了对流运动的发展,而对流运动对暴雨的发展起到了主要作用。这说明,在整个暴雨过程中,只有同时考虑中尺度重力波与对流运动的相互作用,才能较完整地解释雨带的强度和特征得以发展和维持的原因。 相似文献