Inversion method for multi-point source pollution identification: Sensitivity analysis and application to European Tracer Experiment data          下载免费PDF全文

Jilin Wang  Juanjuan Liu  Bin Wang  Wei Cheng  Jiping Zhang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(3):100147

Fast and accurate identification of unknown pollution sources plays a crucial role in the emergency response and source control of air pollution. In this work, the applicability of a previously proposed two-step inversion method is investigated with sensitivity experiments and real data from the first release of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX-1). The two-step inversion method is based on the principle of least squares and carries out additional model correction through the residual iterative process. To evaluate its performance, its retrieval results are compared with those of two other existing algorithms. It is shown that for those cases with richer measurements, all three methods are less sensitive to errors, while for cases where measurements are sparse, their retrieval accuracy will rapidly decrease as errors increase. From the results of sensitivity experiments, the new method provides higher estimation accuracy and a more stable performance than the other two methods. The new method presents the smallest maximum location error of 18.20 km when the amplitude of the measurement error increases to 100%, and 22.67 km when errors in the wind fields increase to 200%. Moreover, when applied to ETEX-1 data, the new method also exhibits good performance, with a location error of 4.71 km, which is the best estimation with respect to source location.摘要快速并且准确地识别未知污染源, 在大气污染应急响应和源头控制过程中起着至关重要的作用. 本文利用敏感性试验及欧洲示踪物测场试验(ETEX-1)数据研究了新提出的两步反演算法的实用性, 并将其反演结果与现有的两种算法进行了对比分析. 敏感试验表明, 在观测数据较为丰富的情况下, 三种算法对观测误差和风场误差的敏感性均较低; 而当观测数据较为稀疏时, 所有算法的估计精度都将随着误差的增加而下降, 但与其他两种算法相比, 两步反演算法具有更高的估计精度以及更稳定的估计性能. 此外, 欧洲示踪物测场试验的源项估计结果也表明, 在三个算法中, 两步反演算法具有最小的位置估计误差.  相似文献   

Simulation of regional temperature change effect of land cover change in agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China     

Liu  Tingxiang  Zhang  Shuwen  Yu  Lingxue  Bu  Kun  Yang  Jiuchun  Chang  Liping 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,130(3-4):971-978

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO₂ concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011–2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (S_aging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (S_{fixed_nodis}), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (S_{dis_age_change}). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the S_{fixed_nodis} scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the S_aging and S_{dis_age_change} scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO₂ concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the S_{fixed_nodis} scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the S_aging and S_{dis_age_change} scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO₂ on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty-first century. Although our model in conjunction with multiple disturbance scenarios may not reflect the true conditions of future forests, it provides a range of potential conditions as well as a useful guide to both current and future forest carbon management.  相似文献   

冬季黑潮延伸体海表温度变率的年代际变化及其与阿留申大气低压系统的关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

余沛龙  张立凤  张永垂  邓冰 《海洋学报(英文版)》2016,35(5):24-37

By utilizing multiple datasets from various sources available for the last 100 years, the existence for the interdecadal change of the winter sea surface temperature(SST) variability in the Kuroshio Extension(KE) region is investigated. And its linkage with the Aleutian Low(AL) activity changes is also discussed. The results find that the KE SST variability exhibits the significant ~6 a and ~10 a oscillations with obvious interdecadal change. The ~6 a oscillation is mainly detected during 1930–1950, which is largely impacted by the anomalous surface heat flux forcing and Ekman heat transport associated with the AL intensity variation. The ~10 a oscillation is most evident after the 1980s, which is predominantly triggered by the AL north-south shift through the bridge of oceanic Rossby waves.  相似文献   

Human appropriation of land for food: The role of diet     

《Global Environmental Change》2016

Human appropriation of land for food production has fundamentally altered the Earth system, with impacts on water, soil, air quality, and the climate system. Changes in population, dietary preferences, technology and crop productivity have all played important roles in shaping today’s land use. In this paper, we explore how past and present developments in diets impact on global agricultural land use. We introduce an index for the Human Appropriation of Land for Food (HALF), and use it to isolate the effects of diets on agricultural land areas, including the potential consequences of shifts in consumer food preferences. We find that if the global population adopted consumption patterns equivalent to particular current national per capita rates, agricultural land use area requirements could vary over a 14-fold range. Within these variations, the types of food commodities consumed are more important than the quantity of per-capita consumption in determining the agricultural land requirement, largely due to the impact of animal products and in particular ruminant species. Exploration of the average diets in the USA and India (which lie towards but not at global consumption extremes) provides a framework for understanding land use impacts arising from different food consumption habits. Hypothetically, if the world were to adopt the average Indian diet, 55% less agricultural land would be needed to satisfy demand, while global consumption of the average USA diet would necessitate 178% more land. Waste and over-eating are also shown to be important. The area associated with food waste, including over-consumption, given global adoption of the consumption patterns of the average person in the USA, was found to be twice that required for all food production given an average Indian per capita consumption. Therefore, measures to influence future diets and reduce food waste could substantially contribute towards global food security, as well as providing climate change mitigation options.  相似文献   

Assessing a local ensemble Kalman filter: perfect model experiments with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ISTVAN SZUNYOGH  ERIC J. KOSTELICH  G. GYARMATI  D. J. PATIL  BRIAN R. HUNT  EUGENIA KALNAY  EDWARD OTT  JAMES A. YORKE 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2005,57(4):528-545

  相似文献   

土地覆盖类型对城市热岛效应的响应分析     

裔传祥  胡继超  李小军 《测绘通报》2018,(1):72-76,116

利用夏季MODIS地表温度和土地覆盖产品,结合Landsat等辅助遥感数据,分别提取济南、武汉、重庆3个城市2003年、2008年、2013年的土地覆盖与地表温度信息,确定3个城市不同年份的热岛效应等级分布。在此基础上,对济南、武汉、重庆这3个城市的地表温度分布特征、热岛效应等级分布特征与土地覆盖类型各因子之间的关系展开分析。结果表明：城市用地是城市热岛的主要贡献因素,相关系数达到0.42;最能缓解城市热岛效应的是林地,平均相关系数为-0.41;3个城市中最能缓解城市热岛效应的土地覆盖类型并不完全相同：济南市为林地和耕地,武汉市为水体,重庆市为林地。  相似文献   

塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区潜在蒸散时空演变特征及其主要影响因素   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

段春锋  缪启龙  曹雯 《中国沙漠》2012,32(6):1723-1730

潜在蒸散是区域干湿状况评价、作物需水量估算和水资源合理规划的关键因子。基于FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith公式和16个台站1961-2009年逐日气象观测资料,估算塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区的潜在蒸散量ET0,在对ET0的时空演变特征进行分析的基础上,探讨了影响该地区ET0变化的主要因素。结果表明,塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区独特的自然地理条件导致多年平均潜在蒸散的分布和变化具有明显的空间差异。49 a来塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区年和四季ET0变化整体上均为下降趋势,时间演变过程中在20世纪90年代初期均由下降趋势转为缓慢上升趋势。空间上,ET0变化在北部地区多为显著下降趋势,而南部地区多不显著;春、夏、秋3季ET0变化趋势的空间分布与年情况比较一致,但冬季ET0呈上升趋势的站点明显增多。影响塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区多数站点ET0变化的主导因子是风速;第二影响因子春季和夏季主要是日照时数,而影响秋季和冬季ET0变化的主要是平均气温。  相似文献   

基于CI指数的江苏省近50 年干旱的时空分布规律   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

包云轩  孟翠丽  申双和  邱新法  高苹  刘聪 《地理学报》2011,66(5):599-608

根据江苏省54 个气象台站1960-2009 年实测气象资料,利用气象干旱复合指数(compositeindex, CI) 对江苏省近50 年的干旱特征进行了时空分析。通过计算各站历年逐日的CI 指数值,统计近50 年各站点出现的干旱过程,分析江苏省各地区干旱发生的频率、范围和强度,揭示了江苏省干旱发生的时空分布规律。研究结果表明：(1) 江苏省全年和各季干旱发生频率都是北高南低,四季中,冬旱发生频率最高,夏旱发生频率最低,秋旱南北差异不显著。(2) 冬季江苏省干旱大范围发生的年份最多,夏季最少;近50 年来,全年和四季干旱覆盖范围的线性变化趋势不明显。(3) 这50 年中,江苏省逐年干旱持续日数和干旱强度虽然存在着明显的年际波动,但线性变化趋势不明显。(4) 江苏省各等级干旱日数总体上呈现冬季多夏季少、北部多南部少的规律。  相似文献   

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地散射辐射特征     

买买提艾力·买买提依明  缪启龙  金莉莉  何清  李振杰 《中国沙漠》2013,33(5):1492-1500

本文利用塔克拉玛干沙漠大气环境观测试验站2010年总辐射、散射辐射、直接辐射观测资料分析了塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地的散射辐射变化特征和散射辐射与晴空指数、大气质量的关系。结果表明:散射辐射年曝辐量为3 628.5 MJ·m-2,占年总辐射曝辐量的59.5%,高于全国平均值;散射辐射夏季大（468.3 MJ·m-2）、冬季小（120 MJ·m-2）,日最高值基本出现在正午,夏季最高辐照度达719.2 W·m-2。与晴空指数大于0.7时相比,晴空指数小于0.7时,秋、冬季散射辐射增加。晴空指数>0.3时,散射辐射与总辐射的比值随晴空指数的增加而呈线性递减;晴空指数<0.3时,散射辐射与天文辐射的比值随晴空指数的增加基本呈直线增加。散射辐射随太阳高度角的增大呈指数递增。散射辐射的变化主要集中在大气质量小于5的范围内且随大气质量的增加而迅速降低。  相似文献   

Parametric exponentially correlated surface emission model for L-band passive microwave soil moisture retrieval     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2015

Surface soil moisture is an important parameter in hydrology and climate investigations. Current and future satellite missions with L-band passive microwave radiometers can provide valuable information for monitoring the global soil moisture. A factor that can play a significant role in the modeling and inversion of microwave emission from land surfaces is the surface roughness. In this study, an L-band parametric emission model for exponentially correlated surfaces was developed and implemented in a soil moisture retrieval algorithm. The approach was based on the parameterization of an effective roughness parameter of H_p in relation with the geometric roughness variables (root mean square height s and correlation length l) and incidence angle. The parameterization was developed based on a large set of simulations using an analytical approach incorporated in the advanced integral equation model (AIEM) over a wide range of geophysical properties. It was found that the effective roughness parameter decreases as surface roughness increases, but increases as incidence angle increases. In contrast to previous research, H_p was found to be expressed as a function of a defined slope parameter m = s²/l, and coefficients of the function could be well described by a quadratic equation. The parametric model was then tested with L-band satellite data in soil moisture retrieval algorithm over the Little Washita watershed, which resulted in an unbiased root mean square error of about 0.03 m³/m³ and 0.04 m³/m³ for ascending and descending orbits, respectively.  相似文献