排序方式： 共有63条查询结果，搜索用时 265 毫秒
31.
两次暴雨过程模拟对陆面参数化方案的敏感性研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选取发生在江西和福建境内的两次暴雨个例,利用NCEP再分析资料在对暴雨发生前、后的环境场和物理量场进行诊断和对比分析的基础上,采用中尺度模式WRF V3.3,通过数值模拟探讨了陆面过程对两次暴雨过程的可能影响及其相关的物理过程。结果表明,2012年5月12日江西大暴雨主要受大尺度环流和中尺度天气系统影响,具有范围大、持续时间长等特点,属于大尺度降水为主的暴雨;而2011年8月23日福建暴雨发生在副热带高压控制下的午后,局地下垫面强烈的感热和潜热通量使低层大气不稳定性增强,触发了此次对流性降水为主的暴雨。通过资料诊断分析,可以判断陆面过程对福建暴雨个例的影响程度明显强于江西暴雨个例。通过关闭地表通量试验发现,陆面过程对暴雨模拟十分重要,尤其是对于该个例中对流性降水的发生起到关键性的作用。通过陆面参数化方案的敏感性试验发现,两次暴雨过程对陆面参数化方案均较为敏感。江西暴雨对陆面过程的敏感性主要体现在对流降水的模拟上,而福建暴雨则体现在大尺度降水的模拟方面,即福建暴雨对陆面参数化方案的敏感性强于江西暴雨。敏感性产生机制与降水类型关系紧密,大尺度降水对陆面过程的敏感性主要来源于不同参数化模拟的中高空对流系统的差异,而对流降水的敏感性则与不同参数化模拟的地表通量的差异有关。通过陆面参数的扰动试验进一步发现,相比于地表粗糙度和最小叶孔阻抗,土壤孔隙度和地表反照率则是影响对流降水对陆面过程敏感的关键因子,这在本质上与地表通量是否受到扰动有关。地表通量较风场而言,受扰动引起变化的空间范围广、时间响应快,变化具有明显规律性。所得结果可为深入理解陆面过程影响暴雨等天气过程和改进数值模式对暴雨的模拟能力提供一定的参考。 相似文献
32.
近50年长江中下游地区夏季气温变化与环流异常 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Using the daily data of temperature from China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1960 to 2005, we have analyzed the relationships between the summertime high/low temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) and the related circulation anomalies in the Eastern Hemisphere. Our results have demonstrated that a significantly increasing trend is observed in daily minimum temperature in the past 50 years. And in some regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the opposite scenarios are observed in circulation anomalies in lower and upper parts of the troposphere in the years when the temperatures are higher than normal, as compared to those in the years when the temperatures are lower than normal in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR). Additionally, the anomalous circulation structure in vertical direction in both the high and lower temperature years are barotropic. It is found that the emergence and maintenance of the aforementioned anomalous circulations are related to three kinds of wave train teleconnection patterns. Further more, influences of the long wave surface radiation on the air temperature are stronger in the nighttime than that in the daytime. While both the maximum and minimum temperatures have negative relationships with the sensible heat flux but positive relationships with the latent heat flux. To some extent, the anomalous dynamic heating (cooling) caused by the vertical thermal advection as well as the diabatic heating (cooling) caused by diabatic processes can explain the formation of the high (low) temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in boreal summer. 相似文献
33.
青藏高原植被指数最新变化特征及其与气候因子的关系 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
利用GIMMS/NDVI(全球库存模拟和影像研究/归一化植被指数,Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)和MODIS/NDVI遥感数据以及青藏高原6个气象代表站的站点数据,结合多种统计和计算方法,分析了青藏高原植被NDVI变化规律及其影响因子。结果表明:1982~2013年青藏高原多年平均植被NDVI的空间分布存在明显的区域差异,总体上呈从东南向西北递减的趋势,而且发现不同地区植被的时间变化规律也不尽相同。根据高原长势最好的6~9月植被NDVI进行经验正交分解,将青藏高原植被分为5个区,并进一步分析了不同分区内植被的变化规律,得出:青藏高原植被NDVI下降最明显的区域在二区的噶尔班公宽谷湖盆地地区和北羌塘高原地区,植被NDVI上升最明显的区域在四区的祁连山东部地区。为了探讨青藏高原不同分区内影响植被NDVI下降的因子,从青藏高原二区、四区、五区各选取NDVI处于下降趋势的两个代表站点。研究分析了各个站点植被NDVI与降水量、平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、日照百分率5个气象因子的关系,得出:在高原二区日照强度是其它分区的两倍左右,而降水量相对较少导致植被NDVI降低。高原四区由于降水量小、温度高、日照强,导致植被NDVI处于下降趋势;在青藏高原五区虽然降水充足,但日照较弱,限制了植被的正常成长导致NDVI处于下降趋势中;其结果为高原植被退化机制研究及高原植被对大气反馈等奠定了基础。 相似文献
34.
利用地面观测资料、秒级探空资料结合WRF中尺度数值模式,对2016年6月25—26日江苏南部地区一次影响范围广、持续时间长的罕见辐射雾过程进行了数值模拟分析。结果表明:(1)雾区范围和气象要素数值模拟结果与实况基本一致;(2)低层超薄超强逆温为此次夏季雾的形成、发展和维持提供了稳定条件;(3)成雾前江苏南部地区白天出现的降水是夜间浓雾形成的重要水汽来源;(4)夜间地表辐射冷却作用是浓雾形成的重要因素;地面风速稳定低于2 m·s^-1,有利于浓雾的维持;日出后随着短波辐射增强风速增大、稳定层结破坏促使浓雾减弱消散。 相似文献
35.
以华北黄淮地区高温低湿型冬小麦干热风灾害为研究对象,基于逐日逐时气象资料、分层土壤水分资料、灾情资料等,采用历史灾情反演、独立t检验等方法,将灾情记录中无明确记载和有明确记载土壤相对湿度影响干热风灾害的样本分为A类和B类,基于两类样本相互独立,厘定各土层对干热风灾害有影响的土壤相对湿度阈值,利用随机预留样本验证阈值的合理性。结果表明:分层和整层土壤相对湿度阈值均随土层深度增加而增大,其中整层阈值平均值近似60%;独立样本检验符合率在80%左右。为便于业务应用,选取10~20 cm土层相对湿度60%为土壤相对湿度对冬小麦干热风灾害影响的临界阈值。当土壤相对湿度大于等于60%时,土壤相对湿度对冬小麦干热风灾害影响显著;当土壤相对湿度小于60%时,土壤相对湿度对冬小麦干热风灾害影响较小,独立样本检验符合率达82.5%。该文为量化评估土壤相对湿度对冬小麦干热风灾害的影响提供了科学依据。 相似文献
36.
江苏省公众气象服务满意度影响因素研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过江苏省气象局设计的《江苏省公众气象服务需求调查表》对江苏省13个市及各县区进行整群抽样调查,获取较大数量的公众气象服务满意度样本和数据,选取性别、年龄、属性、行业、本地居住时间、收入6个影响因素。运用单因素方差分析、多因素方差分析和多元线性回归模型,对江苏省公众气象服务满意度进行分析。结果显示在单因素方差分析中,除性别外,其余5个影响因素的差异均为显著。在多因素方差分析中双因素、3因素和4因素交互均不显著。通过多元线性回归进一步分析得出居住时间是影响满意度的最主要因素,而性别是影响最小的因素。 相似文献
37.
The breeding method has been widely used to generate ensemble perturbations in ensemble forecasting due to its simple concept and low computational cost. This method produces the fastest growing perturbation modes to catch the growing components in analysis errors. However, the bred vectors(BVs) are evolved on the same dynamical flow, which may increase the dependence of perturbations. In contrast, the nonlinear local Lyapunov vector(NLLV) scheme generates flow-dependent perturbations as in the breeding method, but regularly conducts the Gram–Schmidt reorthonormalization processes on the perturbations. The resulting NLLVs span the fast-growing perturbation subspace efficiently, and thus may grasp more components in analysis errors than the BVs.In this paper, the NLLVs are employed to generate initial ensemble perturbations in a barotropic quasi-geostrophic model.The performances of the ensemble forecasts of the NLLV method are systematically compared to those of the random perturbation(RP) technique, and the BV method, as well as its improved version—the ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF)method. The results demonstrate that the RP technique has the worst performance in ensemble forecasts, which indicates the importance of a flow-dependent initialization scheme. The ensemble perturbation subspaces of the NLLV and ETKF methods are preliminarily shown to catch similar components of analysis errors, which exceed that of the BVs. However, the NLLV scheme demonstrates slightly higher ensemble forecast skill than the ETKF scheme. In addition, the NLLV scheme involves a significantly simpler algorithm and less computation time than the ETKF method, and both demonstrate better ensemble forecast skill than the BV scheme. 相似文献
38.
厦门春季海雾天气分类及典型个例宏微观结构分析 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用2013年3月23日—4月22日外场观测得到8次海雾过程的能见度、雾滴谱、自动气象站资料及常规气象资料和NCEP全球分析资料,对厦门春季海雾宏微观过程进行了分析。结果表明,形成厦门海雾的天气形势主要为3类:冷锋型、低压倒槽型、高压入海型。厦门海雾对应区域存在0~1℃气海温差,这对海雾预报具有重要意义。对2013年4月17—18日典型海雾个例研究表明,西南气流强烈的增湿作用触发了海雾生成,为本次海雾发展提供了充沛的水汽条件。本次海雾平均雾滴谱拟合符合Junge分布;对其微物理量(数浓度、液态水含量、平均半径)演变特征分析表明,主导的微物理过程为核化凝结增长和可逆的蒸发过程。 相似文献
39.
Using the daily data of temperature from China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1960 to 2005, we have analyzed the relationships between the summertime high/low temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) and the related circulation anomalies in the Eastern Hemisphere. Our results have demonstrated that a significantly increasing trend is observed in daily minimum temperature in the past 50 years. And in some regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the opposite scenarios are observed in circulation anomalies in lower and upper parts of the troposphere in the years when the temperatures are higher than normal, as compared to those in the years when the temperatures are lower than normal in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR). Additionally, the anomalous circulation structure in vertical direction in both the high and lower temperature years are barotropic. It is found that the emergence and maintenance of the aforementioned anomalous circulations are related to three kinds of wave train teleconnection patterns. Further more, influences of the long wave surface radiation on the air temperature are stronger in the nighttime than that in the daytime. While both the maximum and minimum temperatures have negative relationships with the sensible heat flux but positive relationships with the latent heat flux. To some extent, the anomalous dynamic heating (cooling) caused by the vertical thermal advection as well as the diabatic heating (cooling) caused by diabatic processes can explain the formation of the high (low) temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in boreal summer. 相似文献
40.