Analysis of quantitative precipitation forecasts using the Dynamic State Index     

《Atmospheric Research》2010,95(4):694-703

The German Weather Service (DWD) has two non-hydrostatic operational weather prediction models with different spatial resolution and precipitation parametrisations. The coarser COSMO-EU model has a spatial resolution of 7 km, whereas the higher-resolution COSMO-DE model has a gridspace of 2.8 km and explicitly resolves deep convection. To improve the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models it is necessary to understand precipitation processes. A central goal is the statistical evaluation of precipitation forecasts with dynamic parameters. Here, the Dynamic State Index (DSI) is used as a dynamic threshold parameter. The DSI theoretically describes the change of atmospheric flow fields as deviations from a stationary adiabatic solution of the primitive equations (Névir, 2004). For seasonal area means the DSI shows a remarkably high correlation with the precipitation forecasts provided by the COSMO-DE model. This is especially the case for the summer of 2007. The same analysis has been performed with the COSMO-EU forecast data and the results were compared with those from the COSMO-DE model. Moreover, an independent precipitation analysis, with a resolution corresponding to 7 km and 2.8 km, has been compared with respect to modelled precipitation and the DSI. In addition, correlations between the DSI and modelled as well as observed precipitation as a function of the forecast time for the different grid resolutions are also presented. The results show, that after 12 h, the correlation of the persistence forecast with the DSI reaches two thirds of the initial value. Thus, the DSI offers itself as a new dynamic forecast tool for precipitation events.  相似文献   

Rayleigh lidar temperature measurements in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere     

《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2004,66(1):39-49

A single-wavelength Rayleigh lidar system has been used to measure the temperatures in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the night in the altitude range from about 8 to $\text{30}\text{km}$. The temperature derivation is based on an inversion algorithm of the pure Rayleigh backscatter. Calculations include the derivation of the air molecular concentration by an iterative method and the backscattered signals corrected by the background aerosol, which is now found to be low and stable. The uncertainties in estimating the temperature using this method are discussed in detail.The temperature profiles and the tropopause characteristics derived by using the lidar measurements are compared with the radiosonde data. Good agreement is found between these two measurements revealing the potential of this method. The comparison with radiosonde data shows that the lidar measured tropopause temperature is lower by $\text{0.8±1.5}\text{K}$ and the tropopause height is higher by $\text{0.45±0.8}\text{km}$ than the radiosonde measurements. The climatology of local tropopause (24.57°N,121.13°E) is briefly discussed in terms of a double tropopause formation and seasonal variations of the tropopause height and temperature.  相似文献