2010年6月中下旬南方暴雨过程变形场作用分析   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

姜勇强  王元  吕梅  周祖刚  罗坚 《气象科学》2013,33(2):168-177

利用常规原始报文资料,采用基于Lanczos窗口滤波器的合成分析方法,对2010年6月13-27日的形势场、物理量进行合成分析,计算并分析了低空合成风场的总变形.结果表明:500 hPa大陆中、高纬地区存在一“Ω”形类阻塞高压,西北冷空气从其东部源源不断向长江及以南地区输送,与副热带高压西北侧的西南暖湿气流在我国南方地区交汇.700、850 hPa大陆高压与西太平洋副热带高压之间形成的鞍型场,位于长江以南地区,鞍型场鞍点附近及其东部膨胀轴是暴雨发生的主要区域.在南方地区上空200 hPa西北气流辐散产生的抽吸作用,对这次长时间、高强度的降水起了重要作用.发生在鞍型场和切变线上的低空中尺度气旋,是造成暴雨的重要天气系统.鞍型场膨胀轴附近,总变形最大,其位置、走向均与雨带基本一致,有利于锋生和中尺度气旋形成.低空冷暖气流交汇区域形成低空强θse梯度,在垂直剖面图上,等θse线呈现十分倾斜状态,该区域强θse水平梯度与低空总变形、正涡度区一致,可能是特大暴雨发生的重要因素.  相似文献   

0～6 h定量降雪(雨)预报技术及其在温哥华冬奥会中的应用     

冯业荣  徐穗珊  梁巧倩  陈子通  王东海  朱红芳 《广东气象》2013,35(1):6-13

利用中尺度数值预报模式与雷达回波外推技术相结合,围绕SNOWV10项目的科学目标,在自动判识降水相态(雨、雪或雨雪混合物)基础上,利用雷达反演降雪(雨)关系,建立短时(0～6 h)定量降雪(雨)预报方法,并集成到GRAPES-SWIFT临近预报系统,为温哥华冬奥会提供实时场馆预报产品.从2010年2月冬奥会使用情况看,所建立的定量降雪(雨)预报技术,一定程度满足高纬度冬季降雪(雨)临近预报预警的需求,但降水(雨或雪)预报量级偏小,针对场馆的降水预报起止时间节奏偏差较大,各时次预报一致性有待改进.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Non-stationary Generation of Weak Turbulence for Very Stable and Weak-Wind Conditions     

Larry Mahrt  Christoph Thomas  Scott Richardson  Nelson Seaman  David Stauffer  Matthias Zeeman 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,147(2):201-201

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Derivation of Structure Parameters of Temperature and Humidity in the Convective Boundary Layer from Large-Eddy Simulations and Implications for the Interpretation of Scintillometer Observations     

Björn Maronga  Arnold F. Moene  Daniëlle van Dinther  Siegfried Raasch  Fred C. Bosveld  Beniamino Gioli 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,148(1):1-30

We derive the turbulent structure parameters of temperature $C_{T}^2$ and humidity $C_q^2$ from high-resolution large-eddy simulations (LES) of a homogeneously-heated convective boundary layer. Boundary conditions and model forcing were derived from measurements at Cabauw in The Netherlands. Three different methods to obtain the structure-parameters from LES are investigated. The shape of the vertical structure-parameter profiles from all three methods compare well with former experimental and LES results. Depending on the method, deviations in the magnitude up to a factor of two are found and traced back to the effects of discretization and numerical dissipation of the advection scheme. Furthermore, we validate the LES data with airborne and large-aperture scintillometer (LAS) measurements at Cabauw. Virtual path measurements are used to study the variability of $C_{T}^2$ in the mixed layer and surface layer and its implications for airborne and LAS measurements. A high variability of $C_{T}^2$ along a given horizontal path in the LES data is associated with plumes (high values) and downdrafts (low values). The path average of $C_{T}^2$ varies rapidly in time due to the limited path length. The LES results suggest that measured path averages require sufficient temporal averaging and an adequate ratio of path length to height above the ground for the LAS in order to approach the domain average of $C_{T}^2$ .  相似文献   

A Comment on “How Well Can We Measure the Vertical Wind Speed? Implications for Fluxes of Energy and Mass” by Kochendorfer et al.     

Matthias?MauderEmail author 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,147(2):329-335

Kochendorfer et al. (Boundary-Layer Meterol, 145:383–398, 2012) conducted an experiment to evaluate azimuth and angle-of-attack dependent errors of sonic anemometer measurements. Several questions are raised regarding the experimental design and the presented results. The finding that instruments with non-orthogonal sonic paths underestimate fluctuations of vertical wind speed and consequently also scalar fluxes by about 10 % is compared with the results of a hitherto unpublished side-by-side field comparison and other past intercomparison experiments. Scale considerations are presented that raise considerable doubts on the validity of the implicit assumption of Kochendorfer et al. (2012) that the turbulent wind vector is highly correlated across a distance of 1.2 m at a height of 2.5 m over flat grassland, which corresponds to the separation between the sonic anemometers tested in their experiment. Nevertheless, new developments in sonic anemometer design to minimize transducer-shadow effects are desirable.  相似文献   

Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

L. O. Mearns  S. Sain  L. R. Leung  M. S. Bukovsky  S. McGinnis  S. Biner  D. Caya  R. W. Arritt  W. Gutowski  E. Takle  M. Snyder  R. G. Jones  A. M. B. Nunes  S. Tucker  D. Herzmann  L. McDaniel  L. Sloan 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):965-975

We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.  相似文献   

Statistical-dynamical downscaling of wind roses over the Czech Republic     

Jaroslav Svoboda  Zuzana Chladova  Lukas Pop  Jiri Hosek 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(3-4):713-722

The present study describes a new method for statistical-dynamical downscaling that combines two different approaches, namely, a set of patterns simulated with a numerical flow model and a transformation function used to process both calculated data and measurements at a reference station. The combined method produces wind roses and wind speed histograms at an arbitrary location in the model domain. The inflow wind direction represented the key parameter to define a set of wind field simulations. The other two inflow parameters, namely, thermal stratification and geostrophic wind speed, were derived from corresponding averaged soundings. The results showed that in the Czech Republic, there are areas where wind roses are deformed by the surrounding terrain. The deformations occur in relatively shallow and wide valleys, and they are more sensitive to the inflow wind direction. Calculated wind roses are compared to corresponding observations at 22 synoptic stations. The most frequent wind direction sector in simulations agreed with measurements at 17 stations. The resulting error in frequency in that sector was under 5 % at 10 stations. In general, the main features of the wind roses are modelled well, even at a relatively large distance from the reference station. However, better performance was achieved for smaller distances between reference station and the site. In further studies, a more extensive set of flow patterns with reduced intervals of thermal stratification and wind speed will likely improve calculated wind roses.  相似文献   

Climate change affecting temperature and aridity zones: a case study in Eastern Inner Mongolia, China from 1960–2008     

Jinwei Dong  Jiyuan Liu  Geli Zhang  Jeffrey B. Basara  Scott Greene  Xiangming Xiao 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(3-4):561-572

Recent climate change is substantially affecting the spatial pattern of geographical zones, and the temporal and spatial inconsistency of climatic warming and drying patterns contributes to the complexity of the shifting of temperature and aridity zones. Eastern Inner Mongolia, China, located in the interface region of different biomes and ecogeographic zones, has experienced dramatic drying and warming over the past several decades. In this study, the annual accumulated temperature above 10 °C (AAT10) and the aridity index, two key indicators in geographical regionalization, are used to assess warming and drying processes and track the movements of temperature and aridity zones from 1960 to 2008. The results show a significant warming at the regional level from 1960 to 2008 with an AAT10 increase rate of 7.89 °C·d/year (p?<?0.001) in Eastern Inner Mongolia, while the drying trend was not significant during this period. Spatial heterogeneity of warming and drying distributions was also evident. Analysis of warming and drying via piecewise regression revealed two separate, specific trends between the first 31 years (1960–1990) and the subsequent 18 years (1991–2008). Generally, mild warming and very slight wetting occurred prior to 1990, while after 1991 both warming and drying were significant and enhanced. Continuous warming drove a northward shift of temperature zones from the 1960s to 2000s, while aridity zones displayed enhanced temporal and spatial variability. Climate change effects on temperature and aridity zones imply that the patterns of cropping systems, macro-ecosystems, and human land use modes are potentially undergoing migration and modification due to climate change.  相似文献   

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model     

Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari  Samir Pokhrel  Sachiko Mohanty  Subodh K. Saha 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(3-4):459-477

This study has identified probable factors that govern ISMR predictability. Furthermore, extensive analysis has been performed to evaluate factors leading to the predictability aspect of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) using uncoupled and coupled version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System (CFS). It has been found that the coupled version (CFS) has outperformed the uncoupled version [Global Forecast System (GFS)] of the model in terms of prediction of rainfall over Indian land points. Even the spatial distribution of rainfall is much better represented in the CFS as compared to that of GFS. Even though these model skills are inadequate for the reliable forecasting of monsoon, it imparts the capacious knowledge about the model fidelity. The mean monsoon features and its evolution in terms of rainfall and large-scale circulation along with the zonal and meridional shear of winds, which govern the strength of the monsoon, are relatively closer to the observation in the CFS as compared to the GFS. Furthermore, sea surface temperature–rainfall relation is fairly realistic and intense in the coupled version of the model (CFS). It is found that the CFS is able to capture El Niño Southern Oscillation ISMR (ENSO-ISMR) teleconnections much strongly as compared to GFS; however, in the case of Indian Ocean Dipole ISMR teleconnections, GFS has the larger say. Coupled models have to be fine-tuned for the prediction of the transition of El Niño as well as the strength of the mature phase has to be improved. Thus, to sum up, CFS tends to have better predictive skill on account of following three factors: (a) better ability to replicate mean features, (b) comparatively better representation of air–sea interactions, and (c) much better portrayal of ENSO-ISMR teleconnections. This study clearly brings out that coupled model is the only way forward for improving the ISMR prediction skill. However, coupled model’s spurious representation of SST variability and mean model bias are detrimental in seasonal prediction.  相似文献   

北京一次持续性雾霾过程的阶段性特征及影响因子分析   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10  

曹伟华  梁旭东  李青春 《气象学报》2013,71(5):940-951

利用北京地区高时间分辨率观测资料对2009年11月3—8日一次持续性雾霾天气过程中的气象因素和气溶胶演变特征进行了分析。结果表明,该次雾霾过程具有明显的阶段性特征,前期以霾为主,中期发展为雾霾交替,后期随着相对湿度减小再次转换为霾并最终消散。边界层逆温是低能见度过程形成的必要条件,但并不最终决定雾霾低能见度强度。相对湿度和PM_2.5浓度是决定能见度大小的两个关键影响因子,对能见度的影响体现出阶段性特征。大部分时段PM_2.5浓度是影响能见度的主要因子,当能见度小于1 km时,能见度变化更多受相对湿度影响。不同的情景计算表明,控制PM_2.5浓度对于改善本次过程的能见度有重要作用。  相似文献