Some remarks on cumulus parameterization     

R. S. Lindzen 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(1):123-135

A simple parameterization of cumulonimbus convective heating is presented. The model is primarily based on preserving a moisture budget and on detraining cloud air at levels corresponding to the neutral buoyancy of the air converged at low levels. Results are compared with data from the western Pacific and GATE. Agreement is good. Suggestions are offered for improving the model and extending it to other regions.  相似文献   

Ice sheets and the CO2 problem     

C. J. Van Der Veen 《Surveys in Geophysics》1987,9(1):1-42

In this review, the carbon dioxide problem is discussed, with special reference to the possible effects of a global warming on the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Instead of detailed projections of future climate and the consequences, the basic mechanisms are explained and illustrated with results described in the literature.It is concluded that a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ content (most likely to occur somewhere in the second half of the next century) will result in a globally-averaged warming of 2–4°C, and an intensification of the hydrological cycle. In the polar regions, this warming will be a few degrees larger and as a consequence the Greenland Ice Sheet will decrease in size. Antarctica, on the other hand, is expected to grow because of the increased snowfall. The instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is also discussed and, although no conclusive prediction to its long-term response can be made, it is argued that on a short time scale (less than about 100 y) nothing dramatically wil happen to this part of Antarctica.  相似文献   

Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar  J. Sanjay  B. K. Basu  A. K. Mitra  D. V. Bhaskar Rao  O. P. Sharma  P. K. Pal  T. N. Krishnamurti 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(3):471-485

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.  相似文献   

Editorial     

U. C. Mohanty  Sethu Raman  D. V. Bhaskar Rao 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(2):253-255

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Reflections on more than a century of climate change research     

Mark David Handel  James S. Risbey 《Climatic change》1992,21(2):91-96

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Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. R. Allen  N. P. Gillett  J. A. Kettleborough  G. Hegerl  R. Schnur  P. A. Stott  G. Boer  C. Covey  T. L. Delworth  G. S. Jones  J. F. B. Mitchell  T. P. Barnett 《Surveys in Geophysics》2006,27(5):491-544

We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary linear dune accumulation and chronostratigraphy of the southwestern Kalahari: implications for aeolian palaeoclimatic reconstructions and predictions of future dynamics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

《Quaternary Science Reviews》2007,26(19-21):2617-2630

The linear dunes of the Kalahari, now largely inactive, have long been identified as having potential palaeoenvironmental significance. The application of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to these dunes in the 1990s provided the first chronology of aeolian accumulation in this region, though field methodologies and time-consuming multiple-aliquot laboratory protocols limited both the depth of sampling in dune bodies and the total number of samples dated.In order to permit a more thorough investigation of the potential of these dunes to preserve long chronological records, this intensive study presents 71 OSL ages from the linear dunes of the southwestern Kalahari at Witpan, South Africa, sampled with coring equipment at regular and frequent intervals down to bedrock.The earliest sand accumulation recorded at Witpan is at 104 ka, and in spatially discrete locations, other evidence of dune activity is recorded at 77–76, 57–52 and 35–27 ka. Although an inherently discontinuous archive, the linear dunes of the southwestern Kalahari have the potential to record multiple phases of dune construction. Following the Last Glacial Maximum there is near continuous evidence of dune-building, with a peak of accumulation recorded from 15 to 9 ka at five individual sites. This latter period is generally recognised from other proxy evidence as being unusually arid in this region, and such periods of dune activity are likely to be related to intensification of the continental anticyclone. During the Holocene, accumulation has continued at most sites sampled, albeit at a lesser intensity. This may imply that these dunes are presently not far from thresholds of activation.  相似文献   

Interannual sea level variability in the South China Sea and its response to ENSO   总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18  

Zengrui Rong  Yuguang Liu  Haibo Zong  Yongcun Cheng   《Global and Planetary Change》2007,55(4):257-272

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2004 period, thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2004, and tide gauge records are analyzed to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship with ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Both the interannual variations of the observed sea level and the thermosteric sea level are closely related to ENSO. An ‘enigma’ that the SST and sea level in the SCS have inverse response to ENSO is revealed. It is found that the thermosteric sea level has an excellent correspondence to seawater temperature at 100 m depth, and their variations are unsynchronized to SST. Detailed analysis denotes that the warming of seawater occurs only in the upper 75 m during and after the mature phase of El Niño, while the cooling appears in the layers deeper than 75 m during El Niño years. The volume transports between the SCS and the adjacent oceans and the anomalous Ekman pumping contribute a lot for the sea level fall in the developing stage of El Niño, while the mass exchange, which is dominated by precipitation, plays a more significant role in the following continuous negative sea level anomalies.  相似文献   

在Zebiak-Cane模式中观测MJO强迫对ENSO可预报性的影响, 第1部分:对最大预报误差的影响     

PENG Yuehu  SONG Junqiang  XIANG Jie  SUN Chengzhi 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(5):39-45

With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as external forcing on El Ni(n)o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is studied. The obs...  相似文献   

Accurate polynomial expressions for the density and specific volume of seawater using the TEOS-10 standard     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

A new set of approximations to the standard TEOS-10 equation of state are presented. These follow a polynomial form, making it computationally efficient for use in numerical ocean models. Two versions are provided, the first being a fit of density for Boussinesq ocean models, and the second fitting specific volume which is more suitable for compressible models. Both versions are given as the sum of a vertical reference profile (6th-order polynomial) and an anomaly (52-term polynomial, cubic in pressure), with relative errors of ∼0.1% on the thermal expansion coefficients. A 75-term polynomial expression is also presented for computing specific volume, with a better accuracy than the existing TEOS-10 48-term rational approximation, especially regarding the sound speed, and it is suggested that this expression represents a valuable approximation of the TEOS-10 equation of state for hydrographic data analysis. In the last section, practical aspects about the implementation of TEOS-10 in ocean models are discussed.  相似文献