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11.
Bin Wang June-Yi Lee In-Sik Kang J. Shukla C.-K. Park A. Kumar J. Schemm S. Cocke J.-S. Kug J.-J. Luo T. Zhou B. Wang X. Fu W.-T. Yun O. Alves E. K. Jin J. Kinter B. Kirtman T. Krishnamurti N. C. Lau W. Lau P. Liu P. Pegion T. Rosati S. Schubert W. Stern M. Suarez T. Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(1):93-117
We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981–2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial–temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80–90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework. 相似文献
12.
《Journal of Sea Research》2003,49(2):119-132
On wave-sheltered shores of the northeastern Pacific, the population size structure of Littorina sitkana varies with intertidal height, as larger snails are mostly found only in the upper intertidal. This pattern has been attributed to high predation rates by crabs (and perhaps fish) on large snails inhabiting low-intertidal areas; i.e., large snails are presumed to be rare there simply because predators kill them. In this study we investigate the hypothesis that predation contributes to the shore-level size gradient displayed by L. sitkana by selecting for (or inducing) earlier sexual maturation and reduced somatic growth in low-shore snails relative to high-shore individuals.In the first part of our study, we carried out laboratory dissections, field experiments (mark-release-recapture and caging), and field surveys on a wave-protected shore in Bamfield Inlet, Barkley Sound (British Columbia, Canada). The principal results were: (1) adult survivorship was greater at higher, than at lower, intertidal level, (2) snails displayed a preference for their shore level of origin, (3) immature adults from the high intertidal displayed greater rates of somatic growth relative to immature adults from the low intertidal, and (4) low-shore snails matured at a smaller size than high-shore individuals. In the second part of the study, a large-scale survey showed intra-specific variation in size at sexual maturity (point 4 above) to be relatively consistent over time (winter of 1999 and 2001 for snails from our main study site) and space (13 different sites in winter 2001), although the magnitude of these differences varied greatly from shore to shore.Our results indicate that L. sitkana individuals inhabiting upper and lower parts of their intertidal range allocate resources differently to somatic and gonadal growth, an intra-specific difference that is best interpreted as a response to spatial and size-dependent variation in predation pressure. Taken together, results of this and other recent studies indicate that phenotypic responses to contrasting selection pressures operating in upper- and lower-intertidal areas contribute to the intertidal size gradient of L. sitkana. We believe that greater consideration of evolutionary processes in ecological studies will lead to a more complete understanding of the mechanisms responsible for structuring marine coastal communities. 相似文献
13.
《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2002,20(3):289-296
There are 19 sub-tropical temperate glaciers on Mount Yulong, the southernmost currently glacier-covered area in Eurasia, controlled by the south-western monsoon climate. In the summer of 1999, a firn core, 10.10 m long, extending down to glacier ice, was recovered in the accumulation area of the largest glacier, Baishui No.1. Periodic variations of climatic signals above 7.8 m depth were apparent, and net accumulation of four years was identified by the annual oscillations of isotopic and ionic composition. The boundaries of annual accumulation were confirmed by higher values of electrical conductivity and pH, and by dirty refreezing ice layers at the levels of summer surfaces. Calculated mean annual net accumulation from 1994/95 to 1997/98 was about 900 mm water equivalent. The amplitude of isotopic variations in the profile decreased with increasing depth, and isotopic homogenization occurred below 7.8 m as a result of meltwater percolation. Variations of δ18O above 7.8 m showed an approximate correlation with the winter climatic trend at Lijiang station, 25 km away. Concentrations of Ca2+ and Mg2+ were much higher than those of Na+ and K+, indicating that the air masses for precipitation were mainly from a continental source, and that the core material accumulated during the winter period. The close correspondence of Cl − and Na+ indicated their common origin. The decreasing trend of Na+/Cl− ratios with increasing depth further reflects a progressive homogenization process caused by meltwater percolation. Concentrations of SO42− and NO3− in the core are quite low. The mean annual net accumulation in the core and the estimated ablation indicate that the average annual precipitation above the glacier's equilibrium line is 2400–3100 mm, but this needs to be confirmed by long-term observation of mass balance. 相似文献
14.
The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification to the ambient rotation effect under vertical shear is investigated. The results show that the vortices develop more rapidly with intermediate planetary vorticity, which suggests an optimal latitude for the TC development in the presence of vertical shear. This is different from the previous studies in which no mean flow is considered. It is found that the ambient rotation has two main effects. On the one hand, the boundary layer imbalance is largely controlled by the Coriolis parameter. For TCs at lower latitudes, due to the weaker inertial instability, the boundary inflow is promptly established, which results in a stronger moisture convergence and thus greater diabatic heating in the inner core region. On the other hand, the Coriolis parameter modulates the vertical realignment of the vortex with a higher Coriolis parameter, favoring a quicker vertical realignment and thus a greater potential for TC development. The combination of these two effects results in an optimal latitude for TC intensification in the presence of a vertical shear investigated. 相似文献
15.
The impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on extreme hot and cool events was investigated, by analyzing the observed and reanalysis data for the period from 1983 to 2012. It is found that the frequency of the extreme events in middle and high latitudes is significantly modulated by the BSISO convection in the tropics, with a 3–9-day lag. During phases 1 and 2 when the BSISO positive rainfall anomaly is primarily located over a northwest–southeast oriented belt extending from India to Maritime Continent and a negative rainfall anomaly appears in western North Pacific, the frequency of extreme hot events is 40% more than the frequency of non-extreme hot events. Most noticeable increase appears in midlatitude North Pacific (north of 40°N) and higher-latitude polar region.Two physical mechanisms are primarily responsible for the change of the extreme frequency. First, an upper-tropospheric Rossby wave train (due to the wave energy propagation) is generated in response to a negative heating anomaly over tropical western North Pacific in phases 1 and 2. This wave train consists of a strong high pressure anomaly center northeast of Japan, a weak low pressure anomaly center over Alaska, and a strong high pressure anomaly center over the western coast of United States. Easterly anomalies to the south of the two strong midlatitude high pressure centers weaken the climatological subtropical jet along 40°N, which is accompanied by anomalous subsidence and warming in North Pacific north of 40°N. Second, an enhanced monsoonal heating over South Asia and East Asia sets up a transverse monsoonal overturning circulation, with large-scale ascending (descending) anomalies over tropical Indian (Pacific) Ocean. Both the processes favor more frequent extreme hot events in higher-latitude Northern Hemisphere. An anomalous atmospheric general circulation model is used to confirm the tropical heating effect. 相似文献
16.
Through an oceanic mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the dominant processes contributing to the largest decay rate (− 0.37 °C/mon) in EP El Nino, the moderate delay rate (− 0.22 °C/mon) in CP El Nino and the smallest decay rate (0.13 °C/mon) in La Nina, are identified. The result shows that both dynamic (wind induced equatorial ocean waves and thermocline changes) and thermodynamic (net surface solar radiation and latent heat flux changes) processes contribute to a fast decay and thus phase transition in EP El Niño composite, whereas the thermodynamic process has less effect on the decay rate for both CP El Niño and La Niña due to the westward shift of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) centers. Thus, the difference in surface wind stress forcing is critical in contributing to evolution asymmetry between CP El Niño and La Niña, while the difference in both the wind stress and heat flux anomalies contribute to evolution asymmetry between EP El Niño and La Niña. It is interesting to note that El Nino induced anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific is stronger and shifts more toward the east during EP El Niño than during CP El Niño, while compared to CP El Niño, the center of an anomalous cyclone during La Niña shifts further to the west. As a consequence, both EP and CP El Niño decay fast and transform into a La Niña episode in the subsequent year, whereas La Niña has a much slower decay rate and re-develops in the second year.
相似文献17.
Cambodia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts such as floods and droughts. Study of future climate change and drought conditions in the upper Siem Reap River catchment is vital because this river plays a crucial role in maintaining the Angkor Temple Complex and livelihood of the local population since 12th century. The resolution of climate data from Global Circulation Models (GCM) is too coarse to employ effectively at the watershed scale, and therefore downscaling of the dataset is required. Artificial neural network (ANN) and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) models were applied in this study to downscale precipitation and temperatures from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios) from Global Climate Model data of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) on a daily and monthly basis. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were adopted to develop criteria for dry and wet conditions in the catchment. Trend detection of climate parameters and drought indices were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. It was observed that the ANN and SDSM models performed well in downscaling monthly precipitation and temperature, as well as daily temperature, but not daily precipitation. Every scenario indicated that there would be significant warming and decreasing precipitation which contribute to mild drought. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision makers since climate change may potentially impact future water supply of the Angkor Temple Complex (a World Heritage Site). 相似文献
18.
The southwestern coast of the Caspian Sea often experiences heavy snowfall during winter season due to the lake effect. The accurate estimation of snowfall in this region is still a challenge for weather forecasters. This study attempts to investigate the simulation of lake-effect snow (LES) event occurring along the southwest coastline of the Caspian Sea from 31 January to 4 February 2014 using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study evaluates the sensitivity of four microphysics (WSM6, Goddard, Morrison, and Thompson) schemes and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes (the Yonsei University (YSU) and the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ)), yielding eight distinct combinations. The results indicated that all the simulations overestimated the precipitation. However, the best configurations for estimation of precipitation and snow in terms of their spatiotemporal variation were the Morrison-MYJ and the Goddard-MYJ, respectively. Analyses of the vertical profiles of hydrometeor species showed that the combination of Goddard and MYJ schemes created more snow and graupel than the other configurations. Although the combination of WSM-MYJ schemes revealed the least bias, it was not appropriate for the prediction of snow. A comparison of the two boundary layer schemes showed that the MYJ scheme simulated better intensity and distribution of precipitation than the YSU scheme compared to observations. Also, the maximum radar reflectivity of the model output was useful for identifying the location of maximum precipitation. 相似文献
19.
Linear and nonlinear barotropic vorticity model frameworks are constructed to understand the formation of the monsoon trough in boreal summer over the western North Pacific. The governing equation is written with respect to specified zonal background flows, and a wave perturbation is prescribed in the eastern boundary. Whereas a uniform background mean flow leads no scale contraction, a confluent background zonal flow causes the contraction of zonal wavelength. Under linear dynamics, the wave contraction leads to the development of smaller scale vorticity perturbations. As a result, there is no upscale cascade. Under nonlinear dynamics, cyclonic (anticyclonic) wave disturbances shift northward (southward) away from the central latitude due to the vorticity segregation process. The merging of small-scale cyclonic and anticyclonic perturbations finally leads to the generation of a pair of large-scale cyclonic and anti-cyclonic vorticity gyres, straddling across the central latitude. The large-scale cyclonic circulation due to nonlinear upscale cascade can be further strengthened through a positive convection-circulation feedback.
相似文献20.
A shallow-water model with horizontally nonuniform density is used to study the dynamics of jet flows that arise under the influence of buoyancy and the Coriolis force. Within this approach, the jet is described by a self-similar compactly-localized solution and interpreted as a band of shear flow having a temperature contrast with the ambient fluid. In addition to stationary states, the dynamics of such jets admit cyclonic rotation with a constant angular velocity and transverse nonlinear pulsations. The phase portrait corresponding to this model shows that regimes with pulsating jets develop along closed trajectories bounded by the separatrix loop. The theory predicts that the period for warm jet pulsations is longer than the inertial oscillation period caused by the Earth’s rotation, while for cold jet pulsations, it is shorter. Thus, only warm jets can have a noticeable effect on the atmospheric dynamics in the synoptic range. In particular, they may well be responsible for additional spectral peaks that appear in this range of wind speed fluctuations. 相似文献