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21.
G. C. Hurtt L. P. Chini S. Frolking R. A. Betts J. Feddema G. Fischer J. P. Fisk K. Hibbard R. A. Houghton A. Janetos C. D. Jones G. Kindermann T. Kinoshita Kees Klein Goldewijk K. Riahi E. Shevliakova S. Smith E. Stehfest A. Thomson P. Thornton D. P. van Vuuren Y. P. Wang 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):117-161
In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005?C2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500?C2100 at 0.5°?×?0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500?C2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005?C2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system. 相似文献
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《Marine Policy》2014
The Marine Strategy Framework Directive, adopted by the EU, and several other initiatives to improve marine environmental management emphasize the need to integrate environmental and social analyses. This article proposes and tests a general Behavior-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (BPSIR) framework for identifying and structuring environmentally relevant social data. The framework is compatible with the widely applied Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework, but emphasizes actors and their behavior and defines ‘impact’ more specifically. In particular, it distinguishes between: (i) actors directly involved in activities causing physical, chemical, and biological disturbances, and (ii) actors who indirectly affect marine resource use and the pressures on marine ecosystems. Three case studies of chemical and biological disturbances in the Swedish parts of the North and Baltic seas demonstrate the need to balance current ecosystem monitoring with systematically collected and organized data on social factors, i.e., both direct and indirect actors and stakeholders, their adaptation to policy measures, and the role of general trends in consumption and production. 相似文献
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《Marine Policy》2016
The ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) methodology is currently considered the preferred option for long-term sustainability of fisheries and ecosystem services and is widely popularised. Manuals, guidelines and training have been given to many nations, but the actual existence and execution of an EAFM plan is rare. The applicability and relevance of biological and socioeconomic tools to follow EAFM planning guidelines in a data absent area were explored in Kalpitiya, northwest Sri Lanka, where there is a population of spinner dolphins that the local community are especially dependent on through tuna-dolphin association fishing and dolphin-watching tourism. This paper provides background to the design and collection of information leading to the formulation of an EAFM management plan. Scoping and the determination of a fishery management area were completed through stakeholder consultations using a combination of interviewer-administered questionnaires, interviews, meetings, dolphin distribution data and existing management plans. Threats and stakeholder prioritisation were compiled and the final agreed fisheries management area covers a total area of 2445 km2 adjacent to the Kalpitiya peninsula. The completed EAFM plan contains 4 goals, 16 actions and 72 sub-actions agreed by stakeholders. It was concluded that both willingness of higher level stakeholders responsible for implementing regulations and working with grass-root level stakeholders are critical in developing a realistic and implementable EAFM plan. This work also highlights how data absence should not remain the bottleneck that hinders moving forward with EAFM approaches. 相似文献
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We develop a new algorithm, the simplified urban-extent (SUE) algorithm, to estimate the surface urban heat island (UHI) intensity at a global scale. We implement the SUE algorithm on the Google Earth Engine platform using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images to calculate the UHI intensity for over 9500 urban clusters using over 15 years of data, making this one of the most comprehensive characterizations of the surface UHI to date. The results from this algorithm are validated against previous multi-city studies to demonstrate the suitability of the method. The dataset created is then filtered for elevation differentials and percentage of urban area and used to estimate the diurnal, monthly, and long-term variability in the surface UHI in different climate zones. The global mean surface UHI intensity is 0.85 °C during daytime and 0.55 °C at night. Cities in arid climate show distinct diurnal and seasonal patterns, with higher surface UHI during nighttime (compared to daytime) and two peaks throughout the year. The diurnal variability in surface UHI is highest for equatorial climate zone (0.88 °C) and lowest for arid zone (0.53 °C). The seasonality is highest in the snow climate zone and lowest for equatorial climate zone. While investigating the change in the surface UHI over a decade and a half, we find a consistent increase in the daytime surface UHI in the urban clusters of the warm temperate climate zone (0.04 °C/decade) and snow climate zone (0.05 °C/decade). Only arid climate zones show a statistically significant increase in the nighttime surface UHI intensity (0.03 °C/decade). Globally, the change is mainly seen during the daytime (0.03 °C/decade). Finally, the importance of vegetation differential between urban and rural areas on the spatiotemporal variability is examined. Vegetation has a strong control on the seasonal variability of the surface UHI and may also partly control the long-term variability. The complete UHI data are available through this website (https://yceo.yale.edu/research/global-surface-uhi-explorer) and allows the user to query the UHI of urban clusters using a simple interface. 相似文献
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Alaska Native coastal communities interact with the marine environment in many ways, especially through the harvest of fish, marine mammals, and seabirds. The spatial characteristics of this interaction are often depicted in terms of subsistence use areas: the places where harvests and associated travel occur. Another way to consider the interaction is to examine the areas where harvested species range during their lifecycle or annual migratory path. In this paper, we compare seasonal subsistence use areas, lifetime subsistence use areas, and “calorie-sheds,” or the area over which harvested species range. Each perspective offers useful information concerning not only the nature of human–environment interactions but also the scope for potential conflict with other human activity and the means by which such conflicts could be reduced, avoided, or otherwise addressed. Seasonal subsistence use areas can be used to manage short-term activities, such as seasonal vessel traffic during community re-supply. Lifetime subsistence use areas indicate the area required to allow hunters and fishers the flexibility to adjust to interannual variability and perhaps to adapt to a changing environment. Calorie-sheds indicate the areas about which a community may be concerned due to potential impacts on the species they harvest. 相似文献
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《Marine Policy》2013
Seafloor massive sulfides (SMS) contain commercially viable quantities of high grade ores, making them attractive prospect sites for marine mining. SMS deposits may also contain hydrothermal vent ecosystems populated by high conservation value vent-endemic species. Responsible environmental management of these resources is best achieved by the adoption of a precautionary approach. Part of this precautionary approach involves the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of exploration and exploitative activities at SMS deposits. The VentBase 2012 workshop provided a forum for stakeholders and scientists to discuss issues surrounding SMS exploration and exploitation. This forum recognised the requirement for a primer which would relate concepts underpinning EIA at SMS deposits. The purpose of this primer is to inform policy makers about EIA at SMS deposits in order to aid management decisions. The primer offers a basic introduction to SMS deposits and their associated ecology, and the basic requirements for EIA at SMS deposits; including initial data and information scoping, environmental survey, and ecological risk assessment. 相似文献
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基于20年卫星遥感资料的黄海、渤海海雾分布季节特征分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
目前对海上雾分布的认识多基于沿岸测站和海上船舶、浮标观测,但这些数据非常稀少,且存在代表性和数据质量方面的问题,因此一直缺乏对海雾分布更全面、清晰的了解。卫星遥感数据空间均一、覆盖范围广、质量一致,具有对无云条件下大范围、离岸海雾监测的优势。本文通过分析算法检测出的1989-2008年黄渤海海雾及云的频数、分布百分率信息,得到了黄渤海海雾季节变化的较全面特征。除印证其他资料或研究的结论外,还发现:(1)黄海海雾频数随季节变化的幅度较渤海明显;(2)黄海、渤海海域存在冬季海雾多发时段;(3)海雾生消过程中有覆盖区变化的东传特征;(4)春夏雾季中存在黄海中部和西朝鲜湾两处海雾多发区,其中西朝鲜湾也是全年海雾最多的海域。另外,在样本充足的情况下,通过对检测出的低云、中高云覆盖百分率和海雾频数的分析统计,还能估算出黄海、渤海部分季节20年海雾发生的平均概率。 相似文献
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Orographic effects on South China Sea summer climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1