Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100     

J. M. Gregory  J. A. Church  G. J. Boer  K. W. Dixon  G. M. Flato  D. R. Jackett  J. A. Lowe  S. P. O'Farrell  E. Roeckner  G. L. Russell  R. J. Stouffer  M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001  相似文献   

A submarine canyon conduit under typhoon conditions off Southern Taiwan     

《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2006,53(2):223-240

The function of a submarine conduit under typhoon conditions is examined. The study site is the Kao-ping river, shelf, and submarine canyon (KPRSC) system located off southern Taiwan on a wave-dominated microtidal coast. The head of the canyon is located approximately 1 km off the river mouth. Two comprehensive 1-month field experiments were carried out in 2000 and 2002 during the flood season of the river. Both experiments encountered typhoons that generated significant river discharge and wave resuspension events. Particle samples collected in 2000 by sediment-traps were analyzed for coarse fraction by the wet sieving method. Among the coarse fraction, foraminiferal species and their abundance were recorded as a tracer for biogenic particles of marine origin. Stable isotopes of carbon (δ¹³C) of organic particles of sediment-trap samples were analyzed as a tracer for particles of terrestrial origin. All the measured flow and particle concentration records were analyzed by conventional time-series analytical methods. Simultaneously observed records of suspended sediment concentration at the river mouth and the volume concentration of suspended particles near the canyon floor were compared. Instantaneous flux and cumulative transport of suspended particles near the canyon floor were estimated during the deployment period. Results show that Kao-ping Submarine Canyon is a multi-level and process-dependant two-way conduit for particles of terrestrial and marine origins. In general, terrestrial signals are stronger than the marine signals in sediment-trap samples near the head of the canyon. During typhoon events, in the early distal phase of their influence nonlithogenic and biogenic marine sources are enhanced; in the later proximal phase signals of locally generated terrestrial lithogenic sources are enhanced. An episode of momentary downcanyon flushing of suspended particles near the canyon floor is observed during one typhoon occurrence. This flushing suggests nondeposition during the typhoon at the locale of deployment despite increased input of particles to the canyon floor. It also suggests a mechanism by which turbidity currents could be triggered. Yet, this flushing phenomenon is not observed in another typhoon occurrence, suggesting it is not universal in the canyon's response to the typhoon.  相似文献   

Climate change in Mt. Qomolangma region since 1971     

YANG Xuchao  ZHANG Yili  ZHANG Wei  YAN Yuping  WANG Zhaofeng  DING Mingjun  CHU Duo 《地理学报》2006,16(3):326-336

Using monthly average, maximum, minimum air temperature and monthly precipitation data from 5 weather stations in Mt. Qomolangma region in China from 1971 to 2004, climatic linear trend, moving average, low-pass filter and accumulated variance analysis methods, the spatial and temporal patterns of the climatic change in this region were analyzed. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) There is obvious ascending tendency for the interannual change of air temperature in Mt. Qomolangma region and the ascending tendency of Tingri, the highest station, is the most significant. The rate of increasing air temperature is 0.234 oC/decade in Mt. Qomolangma region, 0.302 oC/decade in Tingri. The air temperature increases more strongly in non-growing season. (2) Compared with China and the global average, the warming of Mt. Qomolangma region occurred early. The linear rates of temperature increase in Mt. Qomolangma region exceed those for China and the global average in the same period. This is attributed to the sensitivity of mountainous regions to climate change. (3) The southern and northern parts of Mt. Qomolangma region are quite different in precipitation changes. Stations in the northern part show increasing trends but are not statistically significant. Nyalam in the southern part shows a decreasing trend and the sudden decreasing of precipitation occurred in the early 1990s. (4) Compared with the previous studies, we find that the warming of Mt. Qomolangma high-elevation region is most significant in China in the same period. The highest automatic meteorological comprehensive observation station in the world set up at the base camp of Mt. Qomolangma with a height of 5032 m a.s.l will play an important role in monitoring the global climate change.  相似文献   

西北地区不同类型云的时空分布及其与降水的关系   总被引：15，自引：3，他引：15       下载免费PDF全文

陈勇航黄建平  王天河金宏春 葛觐铭 《应用气象学报》2005,16(6):717-727

利用1983年7月～2001年9月国际卫星云气候计划ISCCP D2的月平均资料，对西北不同区域不同类型云的云量和云水路径的时空分布及其与降水的关系进行了研究。结果表明:高原气候区是各种云出现最多的地区，特别是积状云的云量明显高于其他两区，但这些云的云水路径值低；西北地区大多数云云量的高值区出现在天山山区、北疆地区、陕西东南部和青藏高原的部分地区。高云和部分中云云量空间分布特征与降水有着较好的一致性:沿着天山—昆仑山—祁连山一带以及陕南和／或陇南地区是高值区，低值区在塔里木盆地—内蒙古西部戈壁沙漠—黄土高原西北部一带；绝大多数云类春夏季节云量维持较高，秋冬季节云量较少。云水路径值较大的层状云类的云量多寡与降水多寡相一致；积状云类和层积云类云量多少与降水没有一定的关系，在降水偏少时，这类云的云量大多与降水正常时相近，有些云的云量甚至比降水偏多时还要多。  相似文献   

青藏高原对亚洲夏季风爆发位置及强度的影响   总被引：14，自引：7，他引：14       下载免费PDF全文

梁潇云  刘屹岷  吴国雄 《气象学报》2005,63(5):799-805

通过数值模拟,研究了青藏高原位于不同经度位置时,亚洲夏季风的爆发和演变情况,从动力和热力学角度分析了青藏高原大地形对亚洲夏季风爆发位置的影响。结果表明,青藏高原的“热力滑轮”作用引起:高原东南面热带陆地上空的偏南气流加强,降水增加,凝结潜热加强;高原西南面热带陆地上空出现偏北气流,降水减弱,陆面的感热加热加强。青藏高原对于亚洲夏季风的爆发地点有锚定的作用,在热带海陆分布的背景下,使亚洲夏季风首先在高原东南面的海洋东岸—陆地西岸爆发,并使亚洲季风降水重新分布。  相似文献   

Likely effects of climate change on groundwater availability in a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain          下载免费PDF全文

Hassane Moutahir  Pau Bellot  Robert Monjo  Juan Bellot  Miguel Garcia  Issam Touhami 《水文研究》2017,31(1):161-176

Groundwater resources are typically the main fresh water source in arid and semi‐arid regions. Natural recharge of aquifers is mainly based on precipitation; however, only heavy precipitation events (HPEs) are expected to produce appreciable aquifer recharge in these environments. In this work, we used daily precipitation and monthly water level time series from different locations over a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain to identify the critical threshold value to define HPEs that lead to appreciable aquifer recharge in this region. Wavelet and trend analyses were used to study the changes in the temporal distribution of the chosen HPEs (≥20 mm day^?1) over the observed period 1953–2012 and its projected evolution by using 18 downscaled climate projections over the projected period 2040–2099. The used precipitation time series were grouped in 10 clusters according to similarities between them assessed by using Pearson correlations. Results showed that the critical HPE threshold for the study area is 20 mm day^?1. Wavelet analysis showed that observed significant seasonal and annual peaks in global wavelet spectrum in the first sub‐period (1953–1982) are no longer significant in the second sub‐period (1983–2012) in the major part of the ten clusters. This change is because of the reduction of the mean HPEs number, which showed a negative trend over the observed period in nine clusters and was significant in five of them. However, the mean size of HPEs showed a positive trend in six clusters. A similar tendency of change is expected over the projected period. The expected reduction of the mean HPEs number is two times higher under the high climate scenario (RCP8.5) than under the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). The mean size of these events is expected to increase under the two scenarios. The groundwater availability will be affected by the reduction of HPE number which will increase the length of no aquifer recharge periods (NARP) accentuating the groundwater drought in the region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Paleontological records indicate the occurrence of open woodlands in a dry inland climate at the present-day Arctic coast in western Beringia during the Last Interglacial     

Frank Kienast  Sebastian Wetterich  Svetlana Kuzmina  Lutz Schirrmeister  Andrei A. Andreev  Pavel Tarasov  Larisa Nazarova  Annette Kossler  Larisa Frolova  Viktor V. Kunitsky 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(17-18):2134-2159

Permafrost records, accessible at outcrops along the coast of Oyogos Yar at the Dmitry Laptev Strait, NE-Siberia, provide unique insights into the environmental history of Western Beringia during the Last Interglacial. The remains of terrestrial and freshwater organisms, including plants, coleopterans, chironomids, cladocerans, ostracods and molluscs, have been preserved in the frozen deposits of a shallow paleo-lake and indicate a boreal climate at the present-day arctic mainland coast during the Last Interglacial. Terrestrial beetle and plant remains suggest the former existence of open forest-tundra with larch (Larix dahurica), tree alder (Alnus incana), birch and alder shrubs (Duschekia fruticosa, Betula fruticosa, Betula divaricata, Betula nana), interspersed with patches of steppe and meadows. Consequently, the tree line was shifted to at least 270 km north of its current position. Aquatic organisms, such as chironomids, cladocerans, ostracods, molluscs and hydrophytes, indicate the formation of a shallow lake as the result of thermokarst processes. Steppe plants and beetles suggest low net precipitation. Littoral pioneer plants and chironomids indicate intense lake level fluctuations due to high evaporation. Many of the organisms are thermophilous, indicating a mean air temperature of the warmest month that was greater than 13 °C, which is above the minimum requirements for tree growth. These temperatures are in contrast to the modern values of less than 4 °C in the study area. The terrestrial and freshwater organism remains were found at a coastal exposure that was only 3.5 m above sea level and in a position where they should have been under sea during the Last Interglacial when the global sea level was 6–10 m higher than the current levels. The results suggest that during the last warm stage, the site was inland, and its modern coastal situation is the result of tectonic subsidence.  相似文献   

Diatom‐based reconstruction of summer sea‐surface salinity in the South China Sea over the last 15 000 years     

Hui Jiang  Mads F. Knudsen  Marit‐Solveig Seidenkrantz  Meixun Zhao  Longbin Sha  Lihua Ran 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(1):208-219

We present a new reconstruction of summer sea‐surface salinity (SSS) over the past 15 000 years based on a diatom record from piston core 17940, located on the northern slope of the South China Sea (SCS). The reconstructed diatom‐based summer SSS values for the modern period are in accord with instrumental observations of summer SSS in the area. Here, the modern summer SSS is primarily controlled by river runoff, in particular from the Pearl River. The reconstruction presented in this study shows that the summer SSS varied between 33.3 and 34.2 psu over the past 15 000 years. The long‐term summer SSS trend closely followed the trend of the orbitally controlled solar insolation at 20°N, suggesting that orbital forcing was the dominant driver of changes in summer SSS in this area. Comparisons to speleothem δ¹⁸O data and studies of surface hydrography in the region suggest that changes in solar insolation affected the summer SSS through changes in the East Asian Monsoon and sea‐level changes associated with the last deglaciation. Univariate spectral analyses indicate that centennial‐scale oscillatory variations in summer SSS were superimposed on the long‐term trend. During the deglacial period (c. 12 000–9000 cal. a BP), the dominant periodicity was centred around 230–250 years, whereas a ～350‐year oscillation dominated in the period 2200–4500 cal. a BP. The balance of evidence suggests that these centennial‐scale changes in summer SSS may have been driven by solar‐induced changes in the East Asian Monsoon, but further evidence is needed to firmly establish this relationship.  相似文献   

Decomposing the meridional heat transport in the climate system     

Haijun Yang  Qing Li  Kun Wang  Yu Sun  Daoxun Sun 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(9-10):2751-2768

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Nonhumans in the practice of development: Material agency and friction in a small-scale energy program in Indonesia     

《Geoforum》2016

We develop the outlines of a new approach to study the role of nonhumans in constituting ‘implementation’ and calculative–discursive practices in development projects and programs. Developing a framework around the concept of friction (material resistance or recalcitrance encountered in processes of transformation), we analyze an Energy Self-sufficient Village program in Indonesia. Focusing on specific projects and episodes within this program, we identify multiple distinctive instances of friction. These were driven by nonhumans’ (and humans’) resistance, as remolding of development beneficiaries’ practices was attempted by project administrators, government officials, entrepreneurs and by the (scientific) calculations embedded in their policies, strategies and models. In concluding, we distill four ways in which nonhumans relationally shape development practices: (a) by resisting representations and calculations produced by human actors, (b) by re-directing planned/expected courses of action, (c) through biophysical change to their weight or textures as they move in space and time, and (d) by mediating competition for resources. Overall, nonhumans play a central role in making and unmaking asymmetric relations of power in practice and by constituting practices that diverge from prior expectations, problematize linear understandings of ‘policy implementation’. Their material and discursive agency is multiple, manifesting differently in different relational settings, which highlights the importance of broadening the range of spokespersons who speak on behalf of nonhumans and whose voices can be considered reliable and true. Our study thus provides support to calls for pluralizing and democratizing development ‘expertise’ beyond the usual suspects in science, government and civil society.  相似文献