Managing the transition to climate stabilization     

RICHARD G. RICHELS  THOMAS F. RUTHERFORD  GEOFFREY J. BLANFORD  LEON CLARKE 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):409-428

It is becoming increasingly clear that economically efficient climate policies are unlikely to be implemented in the near term. Therefore an analysis is warranted that considers the implications of certain suboptimal transition policies. This analysis constructs a transition scenario based on realistic assumptions about the current trends in policy-making. The transition is examined in the context of varying assumptions about the stringency of the target and the availability of low- or no-carbon energy technologies in the future. In addition to evaluating the effects of suboptimal policies, the transitional analysis offers new insights about the intrinsic uncertainty regarding both the appropriate stabilization target and technology.  相似文献   

A dual quaternion-based,closed-form pairwise registration algorithm for point clouds     

《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2014

The representation of similarity transformation in three-dimensional (3D) space, especially of orientation, is a crucial issue in navigation, geodesy, photogrammetry, robot arm manipulation, etc. Considering the large amount of computer resources required by iterative algorithms designed for spatial similarity transformation, the high dependence on initial values of unknown parameters, and the instability of solving transformation parameters for large-angle registration, a closed-form solution for pairwise light detection and ranging (LiDAR) point cloud registration is proposed. In this solution, dual-number quaternions are used to represent the 3D rotation. The relationship between the rotation matrix-based representation of similarity transformation and the dual quaternion-based representation is described first. Considering that the same features from two neighboring stations coincide after pairwise registration, a dual quaternion-based error norm, which is associated with the sum of the position errors, is constructed. Based on theory of least squares and by extreme value analysis of the error norm, detailed derivations of the model and the main formulas are obtained. Once the similarities between the same features from the two neighboring LiDAR stations are constructed, the rotation matrix, the scale parameter, and the translation vector are simultaneously derived. Two experiments are conducted to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The proposed algorithm has the advantages of simplicity and ease of implementation, making it better than the traditional methods that use matrices to describe spatial rotation. Moreover, it solves the transformation parameters without the initial estimates of unknown parameters, making it better than iterative algorithms. Most importantly, in contrast to unit quaternion-based algorithms, the proposed algorithm solves seven unknown parameters simultaneously. Therefore, it effectively avoids the accumulation of introduced error in calculation and the negative impact from the inappropriate choice of initial values.  相似文献   

The effect of global climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China     

Yuyu Zhou  Jiyong Eom  Leon Clarke 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):979-992

Climate change will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate change on heating and cooling demands requires taking into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time, but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself. In this study, we explore the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling requirement by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days (HDD/CDDs) for both reference (no-policy) and 550 ppmv CO₂ concentration pathways built from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) output and three scenarios of gridded population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China are then explored by using the results of HDD/CDDs as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The results across the modeled changes in climate and population distributions indicate that unabated climate change would cause building sector’s final energy consumption to decrease modestly (6 % decrease or less depending on climate models) in both the U.S. and China by the end of the century as decreased heating consumption more than offsets increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, global climate change virtually has negligible effect on total CO₂ emissions in the buildings sector in both countries. The results also indicate more substantial implications for the fuel mix with increases in electricity and decreases in other fuels, which may be consistent with climate mitigation goals. The variation in results across all scenarios due to variation of population distribution is smaller than variation due to the use of different climate models.  相似文献   

Can radiative forcing be limited to 2.6 Wm−2 without negative emissions from bioenergy AND CO2 capture and storage?     

James Edmonds  Patrick Luckow  Katherine Calvin  Marshall Wise  Jim Dooley  Page Kyle  Son H. Kim  Pralit Patel  Leon Clarke 《Climatic change》2013,118(1):29-43

Combining bioenergy and carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS) technologies (BECCS) has the potential to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere while producing useful energy. BECCS has played a central role in scenarios that reduce climate forcing to low levels such as 2.6 Wm^?2. In this paper we consider whether BECCS is essential to limiting radiative forcing (RF) to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100 using the Global Change Assessment Model, a closely coupled model of biogeophysical and human Earth systems. We show that BECCS can potentially reduce the cost of limiting RF to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100 but that a variety of technology combinations that do not include BECCS can also achieve this goal, under appropriate emissions mitigation policies. We note that with appropriate supporting land-use policies terrestrial sequestration could deliver carbon storage ranging from 200 to 700 PgCO₂-equiavalent over the 21st century. We explore substantial delays in participation by some geopolitical regions. We find that the value of BECCS is substantially higher under delay and that delay results in higher transient RF and climate change. However, when major regions postponed mitigation indefinitely, it was impossible to return RF to 2.6 Wm^?2 by 2100. Neither finite land resources nor finite potential geologic storage capacity represented a meaningful technical limit on the ability of BECCS to contribute to emissions mitigation in the numerical experiments reported in this paper.  相似文献   

基于静风期污染物的PM2.5排放清单空间精细化方法     

钟雨桐  韦晶  郑月明  阎福礼 《地球信息科学学报》2021,23(11):1971-1983

有利气象条件之后的静风期,极大降低了PM_2.5跨区域传输的影响,能够揭示本地源的排放状况。本文尝试性引入了静风期污染物分布揭示本地源排放特征的概念,提出了一种基于遥感数据的PM_2.5排放清单空间精细化方法：首先,利用 MODIS MCD19A2反演的ChinaHighPM_2.5数据,构建高时空分辨率PM_2.5数据融合方法;然后,构建唐山市有利气象条件之后的静风期污染物遴选方法（合理风向和风速：有利气象条件为东风,地面10 m高度风速大于3 m/s,其他风向,持续的较大风力5~10 m/s;静风期风速小于1.5~2.0 m/s）;其次,基于遴选的静风期PM_2.5数据分配MEIC清单中的PM_2.5总排放量,同时对比传统插值方法：基于GDP、人口密度、路网、土地利用类型数据,实现清单各污染源PM_2.5的1 km×1 km空间分配;最后,利用WRF-CMAQ模拟数据和地面台站实测数据进行真实性检验。研究结果表明：① PM_2.5数据填补融合方法能够有效提高PM_2.5监测数据的时空分辨率,且与地面监测值显著相关（R²=0.94,RMSE=4.64 µg/m³,NMB=2%,NME=7%）;② 引入有利气象条件后的静风期概念,提出了静风期污染物的遴选方法,有效降低了PM_2.5跨区域传输的影响,更好地反映了本地源排放的空间分布特征;③ WRF-CMAQ模拟方法的精度验证结果表明,该方法较传统面积插值法NME降低7%,NMB降低10%,RMSE降低1.54 µg/m³,R²提高11%。该方法为排放清单的空间精细化提供了新的研究思路。  相似文献   

Erratum to: Analytically Modelling Mean Wind and Stress Profiles in Canopies     

Weiguo Wang 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2014,152(1):125-125

  相似文献   

Analytically Modelling Mean Wind and Stress Profiles in Canopies     

Weiguo Wang 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2014,151(2):239-256

An analytical model for mean wind profiles in sparse canopies (W. Wang, Boundary-Layer Meteorol 142:383–399, 2012) has been further developed, with (1) an explicit solution being derived, and (2) a linear term being added to the $K$ -closure scheme to improve the shear-stress parametrization when the contribution of non-local transport is significant. Results from large-eddy simulations and from laboratory experiments are used to evaluate the model and adjust model parameters, showing that the model can well simulate canopy wind and stress profiles not only for sparse-canopy scenarios, but also for dense-canopy scenarios. The analytical solution converges exactly to the standard surface-layer logarithmic wind profile in the case of zero canopy density, and tends to an exponential wind profile for a dense canopy.  相似文献   

Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets     

Katherine Calvin  Marshall Wise  Page Kyle  Pralit Patel  Leon Clarke  Jae Edmonds 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):691-704

Many papers have shown that bioenergy and land-use are potentially important elements in a strategy to limit anthropogenic climate change. But, significant expansion of bioenergy production can have a large terrestrial footprint. In this paper, we test the implications for land use, the global energy system, emissions and mitigation costs of meeting a specific climate target, using a single fossil fuel and industrial sector policy instrument, but with five alternative bioenergy and land-use policy architectures. These scenarios are illustrative in nature, and designed to explore trade-offs. We find that the policies we examined have differing effects on the different segments of the economy. Comprehensive land policies can reduce land-use change emissions, increasing allowable emissions in the energy system, but have implications for the cost of food. Bioenergy penalties and constraints, on the other hand, have little effect on food prices, but result in less bioenergy and thus can increase mitigation costs and energy prices.  相似文献   

Variability and predictability of Northeast China climate during 1948–2012     

Zongting Gao  Zeng-Zhen Hu  Bhaskar Jha  Song Yang  Jieshun Zhu  Baizhu Shen  Renjian Zhang 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(3-4):787-804

In this work, authors examine the variabilities of precipitation and surface air temperature (T2m) in Northeast China during 1948–2012, and their global connection, as well as the predictability. It is noted that both the precipitation and T2m variations in Northeast China are dominated by interannual and higher frequency variations. However, on interdecadal time scales, T2m is shifted significantly from below normal to above normal around 1987/1988. Statistically, the seasonal mean precipitation and T2m are largely driven by local internal atmospheric variability rather than remote forcing. For the precipitation variation, circulation anomalies in the low latitudes play a more important role in spring and summer than in autumn and winter. For T2m variations, the associated sea surface pressure (SLP) and 850-hPa wind (uv850) anomalies are similar for all seasons in high latitudes with significantly negative correlations for SLP and westerly wind anomaly for uv850, suggesting that a strong zonal circulation in the high latitudes favors warming in Northeast China. The predictability of precipitation and T2m in Northeast China is assessed by using the Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project type experiments which are forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) and time-evolving greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Results suggest that T2m has slightly higher predictability than precipitation in Northeast China. To some extent, the model simulates the interdecadal shift of T2m around 1987/1988, implying a possible connection between SST (and/or GHG forcing) and surface air temperature variation in Northeast China on interdecadal time scales. Nevertheless, the precipitation and T2m variations are mainly determined by the unpredictable components which are caused by the atmospheric internal dynamic processes, suggesting low predictability for the climate variation in Northeast China.  相似文献   

Climate mean,variability and dominant patterns of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime mean atmospheric circulation in the NCEP CFSv2     

Peitao Peng  Arun Kumar  Bhaskar Jha 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2783-2799

In this study, the climate mean, variability, and dominant patterns of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime mean 200 hPa geopotential height (Z200) in a CMIP and a set of AMIP simulations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) are analyzed and compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the climate mean, it is found that a component of the bias in stationary waves characterized with wave trains emanating from the tropics into both the hemispheres can be attributed to the precipitation deficit over the Maritime continent. The lack of latent heating associated with the precipitation deficit may have served as the forcing of the wave trains. For the variability of the seasonal mean, both the CMIP and AMIP successfully simulated the geographical locations of the major centers of action, but the simulated intensity was generally weaker than that in the reanalysis, particularly for the center over the Davis Strait-southern Greenland area. It is also noted that the simulated action center over Aleutian Islands was southeastward shifted to some extent. The shift was likely caused by the eastward extension of the Pacific jet. Differences also existed between the CMIP and the AMIP simulations, with the center of actions over the Aleutian Islands stronger in the AMIP and the center over the Davis Strait-southern Greenland area stronger in the CMIP simulation. In the mode analysis, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection pattern in each dataset was first removed from the data, and a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis was then applied to the residual. The purpose of this separation was to avoid possible mixing between the ENSO mode and those generated by the atmospheric internal dynamics. It was found that the simulated ENSO teleconnection patterns from both model runs well resembled that from the reanalysis, except for a small eastward shift. Based on the REOF modes of the residual data, six dominant modes of the reanalysis data had counterparts in each model simulation, though with different rankings in explained variance and some distortions in spatial structure. By evaluating the temporal coherency of the REOF modes between the reanalysis and the AMIP, it was found that the time series associated with the equatorially displaced North Atlantic Oscillation in the two datasets were significantly correlated, suggesting a potential predictability for this mode.  相似文献