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951.
952.
一次浅薄低涡暴雨过程数值模拟及发展机制分析 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
运用WRF中尺度数值模式对2009年7月27日长江下游地区的一次6 h累计降水226 mm的暴雨过程进行数值模拟,利用模式输出资料,对引发此次暴雨过程的浅薄低涡移动演变和动力结构、温湿特征进行分析,探讨低涡发展东移机制。结果表明:低涡位于500 hPa西风槽前,仅出现在对流层低层,动力与温湿特征均表现其浅薄结构。低涡暴雨降水主要发生在低涡东侧暖式切变线附近。水汽来源于中国南海和东海两地,水汽辐合层深厚,达600 hPa。此次低涡具有较强的斜压结构特征。通过涡度方程分析,辐合辐散流场的维持和发展为正涡度变化率作出主要贡献,三维风场倾斜扭转项作用与正涡度变化存在重要正相关。地形的动力作用使得背风坡更有利于低涡绕山后加强。高低空急流耦合中心和水汽凝结潜热释放区均有利于引导低涡以及低涡暴雨加强东移。湿等熵面呈垂直陡立状,指示低涡已发展到成熟期。预示暴雨即将减弱。倾斜涡度发展条件C_d0的连续增强,指示斜压性、稳定度和垂直风切变的综合作用也是这次低涡保持发展加强的重要原因。 相似文献
953.
对流温度含义阐释及部分示意图隐含悖论成因分析与预报应用 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
分析和预报局地对流时常用到对流温度,对流凝结高度常被用于估计局地对流云的云底高度。对流温度和对流凝结高度用于局地对流分析时存在一定的前提,且其蕴含的物理意义非常丰富。论文剖析了几本较为经典的气象专业书籍中对流温度概念图示,指出其中隐含的悖论,包括与大气稳定度基本常识相悖、违反大气能量学理论、以及与物理量本身含义明显抵触。进一步阐释构图不够严谨、对对流温度含义理解不完全到位是出现这种悖论的根本原因。并构造了物理意义清晰、气象基本理论更为合理的对流温度示意图。利用观测资料,分析了北京夏季对流云的发生频数和生成时间,尝试用对流温度预报局地对流云的生成,用对流凝结高度预报局地对流云云底高度。结果表明,对流温度在局地对流云的预报中具有一定的指示意义,对流凝结高度能在一定程度上反映出局地对流云的云底高度。如果将最高温度不低于对流温度1℃作为判定能否产生对流云的一个标准,临界成功指数达到45%。 相似文献
954.
The evolution of spiral-band-like structures triggered by asymmetric heating in three tropical-cyclone-like vortices of different intensities is examined using the Three-Dimensional Vortex Perturbation Analyzer and Simulator (3DVPAS) model. To simulate the spiral bands, asymmetric thermal perturbations are imposed on the radius of maximum wind (RMW) of vortices, which can be considered as the location near the eyewall of real tropical cyclones (TCs). All the three vortices experience a hydrostatic adjustment after the introduction of thermal asymmetries. It takes more time for weaker and stable vortices to finish such a process. The spiral-band-like structures, especially those distant from the vortex centers, form and evolve accompanying this process. In the quasi-balance state, the spiral bands are gradually concentrated to the inner core, the wave behavior of which resembles the features of classic vortex Rossby (VR) waves. The unstable vortices regain nonhydrostatic features after the quasi-balance stage. The spiral bands further from the vortex center, similar to distant spiral bands in real TCs, form and maintain more easily in the moderate basic-state vortex, satisfying the conditions of barotropic instability. The widest radial extent and longest-lived distant bands always exist in weak and stable vortices. This study represents an attempt to determine the role of TC intensity and stability in the formation and evolution of spiral bands via hydrostatic balance adjustment, and provides some valuable insights into the formation of distant spiral rainbands. 相似文献
955.
Decadal Anomalies of Winter Precipitation over Southern China in Association with El Nio and La Nia 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1 下载免费PDF全文
Using multiple datasets, this paper analyzes the characteristics of winter precipitation over southern China and its association with warm and cold phases of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation during 1948 2011. The study proves that E1 Nifio is an important external forcing factor resulting in above-normal winter precipitation in southern China. The study also reveals that the impact ofLa Nifia on the winter precipitation in southern China has a decadal variability. During the winter of La Nifia before 1980, the East Asian winter monsoon is stronger than normal with a deeper trough over East Asia, and the western Pacific subtropical high weakens with its high ridge retreating more eastward. Therefore, anomalous northerly winds dominate over southern China, leading to a cold and dry winter. During La Nifia winter after 1980, however, the East Asian trough is weaker than normal, unfavorable for the southward invasion of the winter monsoon. The India-Burma trough is intensified, and the anomalous low-level cyclone excited by La Nifia is located to the west of the Philippines. Therefore, anomalous easterly winds prevail over southern China, which increases moisture flux from the tropical oceans to southern China. Meanwhile, La Nifia after 1980 may lead to an enhanced and more northward subtropical westerly jet over East Asia in winter. Since southern China is rightly located on the right side of the jet entrance region, anomalous ascending motion dominates there through the secondary vertical circulation, favoring more winter precipitation in southern China. Therefore, a cold and wet winter, sometimes with snowy and icy weathers, would occur in southern China during La Nifia winter after 1980. Further analyses indicate that the change in the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomaly during the La Nifia mature phase, as well as the decadal variation of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, would be the important reasons for the decadal variability of the La Nifia impact on the atmospheric circulation in East Asia and winter precipitation over southern China after 1980. 相似文献
956.
LI Chongyin LING Jian SONG Jie PAN Jing TIAN Hu CHEN Xiong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,28(5):671-692
Tropical intraseasonal oscillation (including the Madden-Julian oscillation) is an important element of the atmospheric circulation system. The activities and anomalies of tropical intraseasonal oscillations affect weather and climate both inside and outside the tropical region. The study of these phenomena therefore represents one of the frontiers of atmospheric sciences. This review aims to synthesize and summarize studies of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) by Chinese scientists within the last 5-10 years. We focus particularly on ISO's mechanisms, its numerical simulations (especially the impacts of diabatic heating profiles), relationships and interactions with ENSO (especially over the western Pacific), impacts on tropical cyclone genesis and tracks over the northwestern Pacific, and influences on the onset and activity of the South and East Asian monsoons (especially rainfall over China). Among these, focuses of ongoing research and unresolved issues related to ISO are also discussed. 相似文献
957.
The sea-land breeze circulation (SLBC) occurs regularly at coastal locations and influences the local weather and climate significantly. In this study, based on the observed surface wind in 9 conventional meteorological stations of Hainan Island, the frequency of sea-land breeze (SLB) is studied to depict the diurnal and seasonal variations. The statistics indicated that there is a monthly average of 12.2 SLB days and an occurrence frequency of about 40%, with the maximum frequency (49%) in summer and the minimum frequency (29%) in autumn. SLB frequencies (41%) are comparable in winter and spring. A higher frequency of SLB is present in the southern and central mountains due to the enhancement effect of the mountain-valley breeze. Due to the synoptic wind the number of SLB days in the northern hilly area is less than in other areas. Moreover, the WRF model, adopted to simulate the SLBC over the island for all seasons, performs reasonably well reproducing the phenomenon, evolution and mechanism of SLBC. Chiefly affected by the difference of temperature between sea and land, the SLBC varies in coverage and intensity with the seasons and reaches the greatest intensity in summer. The typical depth is about 2.5 km for sea breeze circulation and about 1.5 km for land breeze circulation. A strong convergence zone with severe ascending motion appears on the line parallel to the major axis of the island, penetrating 60 to 100 km inland. This type of weak sea breeze convergence zone in winter is north-south oriented. The features of SLBC in spring are similar both to that in summer with southerly wind and to that in winter with easterly wind. The coverage and intensity of SLBC in autumn is the weakest and confined to the southwest edge of the central mountainous area. The land breeze is inherently very weak and easily affected by the topography and weather. The coverage and intensity of the land breeze convergence line is significantly less than those of the sea breeze. The orographic forcing of the cen 相似文献
958.
The results of this study prove that there is significant troposphere biennial oscillation (TBO) in the South Asian climate, especially with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In order to explore the mechanism of TBO in the South Asian region, we defined a unified South Asian monsoon index to depict South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and South Asian winter monsoon (SAWM) and the transition features between SASM and SAWM. Through further analysis, the connection between the abnormity of SASM and SAWM was discovered. Normally, a strong SAWM is beneficial for a weak SASM later, while a weak SAWM favors a strong SASM. Meanwhile, a strong SASM is favorable for a weak SAWM and a weak SAWM always happens after a weak SASM. Such results suggest the evolution of the South Asian monsoon, which may be an important mechanism to excite TBO in South Asia. 相似文献
959.
ATOVS资料同化方案对暴雨模拟效果的影响 总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2
本文利用WRF 模式及其3DVar 同化系统,以2009 年6 月29 日00 时到30 日00 时的湖北鹤峰暴雨为研究个例,对ATOVS 探测器的AMSU-A、AMSU-B 和HIRS 三类资料进行了不同的同化方案试验。结果表明:同化ATOVS 三类资料对暴雨模拟的影响不同,HIRS 资料对暴雨模拟效果改进最大,AMSU-B 次之,AMSU-A 最小。同时同化ATOVS 三类资料时,AMSU-A 资料起主要作用,其同化效果与同时同化ATOVS 三类资料相近,优化组合同化AMSU-B 和HIRS 资料的效果最好。同化ATOVS 不同资料对初始要素场的影响不同,AMSU-A 资料主要影响大气温度场,AMSU-B 资料对中高空要素场的影响较大,HIRS 资料对低空湿度场及风场的协同改变最有利于降水模拟的改善。同时ATOVS 资料的稀疏分辨率也是影响同化效果的一个因子,在模式分辨率不变时,同化资料稀疏分辨率可能存在最佳选择。 相似文献
960.
根据湖北省孝感气象观测站1960—2010年逐月平均气温数据,利用趋势分析、小波变换、M-K突变检验等方法,研究了孝感市近50年来平均气温的时间变化特征。结果表明:孝感市年平均气温总体以0.017℃/年的速率上升,其中冬、春季上升幅度最为显著,夏季呈微下降趋势。年代际尺度上40年以上的周期振荡起主导作用,年际尺度上主要表现为准4年、准2~4年或准3年的周期变化。1997年是年平均气温发生突变的节点。 相似文献