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自20世纪70年代末期以来,西北太平洋的热带气旋在全球变暖的背景下主要发生了两种宏观的气候变化：一个是热带气旋生成频数呈现年代际减少,尤其是在东南部海域;另一个则是其生成与活动位置等总体特征有向西北偏移的趋势。本文对这两个方面的研究进展进行了概述。近些年的研究表明,垂直风切变的增强可能是夏秋季热带气旋频数减少的最主要原因,这与太平洋-印度洋海面温度变化导致的大尺度环境变化有密切联系。同样有研究认为北大西洋海面温度的多年代际振荡对近期西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的减少也非常重要。但西北太平洋西部强热带气旋的频数呈现出增加的趋势,这可能与东亚近海海面温度的显著升高有关,尽管这种变化是否可信仍有争议。近20年来,西北太平洋热带气旋活动普遍出现西北移倾向,包括生成位置和路径位置,这种变化可能受到了ENSO变异及20世纪90年代末期太平洋气候突变的调控。同时,热带环流的极向扩张又导致了热带气旋的有利环境向北扩张,因此西北太平洋热带气旋活动也出现极向迁移的趋势。 相似文献
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利用印度气象局（India Meteorological Department,IMD）、国际气候管理最佳路径档案库（International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship,IBTrACS）提供的1982—2020年阿拉伯海热带气旋路径资料,美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP）再分析资料,对近39 a阿拉伯海热带气旋源地和路径特征、活跃区域、频数及气旋累积能量（accumulated cyclone energy,ACE）指数的季节特征和年际变化特征进行分析,并结合环境因素,说明其物理成因。结果表明：阿拉伯海热带气旋多发于10°~25°N,65°~75°E海域,5—6月、9—12月发生频数较高且强度较强,1—4月、7—8月发生频数较低且气旋近中心最大风速均小于35 kn;频数的季节变化主要受控于垂直风切变要素;阿拉伯海热带气旋发生频数和ACE近年有上升趋势,年际变化主要受控于海面温度（sea surface temperature,SST）和850 hPa相对湿度要素。 相似文献
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利用印度气象局（India Meteorological Department,IMD）、国际气候管理最佳路径档案库（International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship,IBTrACS）提供的1982—2020年阿拉伯海热带气旋路径资料,美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP）再分析资料,对近39 a阿拉伯海热带气旋源地和路径特征、活跃区域、频数及气旋累积能量（accumulated cyclone energy,ACE）指数的季节特征和年际变化特征进行分析,并结合环境因素,说明其物理成因。结果表明：阿拉伯海热带气旋多发于10°~25°N,65°~75°E海域,5—6月、9—12月发生频数较高且强度较强,1—4月、7—8月发生频数较低且气旋近中心最大风速均小于35 kn;频数的季节变化主要受控于垂直风切变要素;阿拉伯海热带气旋发生频数和ACE近年有上升趋势,年际变化主要受控于海面温度（sea surface temperature,SST）和850 hPa相对湿度要素。 相似文献
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党的十八大以来，我国进入生态文明建设的新时期。随着自然岸线保有率控制制度的实施和各地规划中海岸线“占补平衡”的提出，对海岸线的管理和保护也进入占补平衡的新阶段。文章通过对海岸线和耕地进行类比分析，在梳理我国耕地占补平衡的发展历程、平衡的行政范围设置、平衡的方法等基础上，探索以生态空间支撑发展空间的海岸线可持续发展模式。包括：通过编制相关规划，做好新增具有生态功能的岸线来源储备；从岸线价值评估、搭建岸线存储平台等方面研究建立支撑技术方法；建立海岸线占补平衡管理系统平台、异地占补平衡机制、监督管理机制，形成有效的实施和监管体制，逐步建立行之有效的生态岸线指标交易市场体系。 相似文献
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The climatological features and interannual variation of winter-to-spring transition over southern China and its surrounding areas, and its possible mechanisms are examined in this study. The climatological mean winter-to-spring transition is approximately in mid-March over southern China and the northern South China Sea. During the transition stage, anomalous southwest winds prevail at low-level over southern China and its nearby regions with enhanced convergence center over southern China, bringing more moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the South China Sea (SCS) to southern China; meanwhile, the upper level is characterized by an obvious divergence wind pattern over southern China to the southwest part of Japan and enhanced upward motion. All the change of circulation is favorable to an increase of precipitation over southern China after seasonal transition. The winter-to-spring transition is predominantly on the interannual variation over southern China and the northern SCS. Early winter-to-spring transitions may induce more precipitation over southern China in spring, especially in March, while late cases will result in less precipitation. The interannual variability of the winter-to-spring transition and the related large-scale circulation are closely associated with the decaying phase of ENSO events. The warm ENSO events contribute to early winter-to-spring transitions and more precipitation over southern China. 相似文献
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A.M. Gabrielov V.I. Keilis-Borok V. Pinsky O.M. Podvigina A. Shapira V.A. Zheligovsky 《Tectonophysics》2007,429(3-4):229-251
We explore the impact of fluids migrating through a fault network on the dynamics of lithosphere, both on slow movements and seismicity. For that purpose fluids in the fault zones are incorporated into modelling of blocks-and-faults systems, which takes into account driving forces and the system's geometry. Simulations have been performed for two-dimensional models: an idealised “brick wall” structure, and a coarse image of Sinai Subplate. Migrating fluids originating in different locations are considered, as well as fluids trapped in closed pockets. Basic features of the modelled and observed seismicity are in good accord, as shown by comparison with the earthquake catalog compiled by Geophysical Institute of Israel. 相似文献
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Heng Wang Ping Zhang Shuai Hu Huayang Cai Linxi Fu Feng Liu Qingshu Yang 《水文研究》2020,34(13):2878-2894
Both natural changes (e.g., tidal forcing from the ocean and global sea level rise) and human-induced changes (e.g., dredging for navigation, sand excavation, and land reclamation) exert considerable influences on the long-term evolution of tidal regimes in estuaries. Evaluating the impacts of these factors on tidal-regime shifts is particularly important for the protection and management of estuarine environments. In this study, an analytical approach is developed to investigate the impacts of estuarine morphological alterations (mean water depth and width convergence length) on tidal hydrodynamics in Lingdingyang Bay, Southeast China. Based on the observed tidal levels from two tidal gauging stations along the channel, tidal wave celerity and tidal damping/amplification rate of different tidal constituents are computed using tidal amplitude and phase of tidal constituents extracted from a standard harmonic analysis. We show that the minimum mean water depth for the whole estuary occurred in 2006, whereas a shift in tidal wave celerity for the M2 tide component occurred in 2009. As such, the study period (1990–2016) could be separated into pre-human (1990–2009) and post-human (2010–2016) phases. Our results show that the damping/amplification rate and celerity of the M2 tide have increased by 31% (from 7 to 9.2 m−1) and 28% (from 7 to 9 m·s−1) respectively, as a consequence of the substantial impacts of human interventions. The proposed analytical method is subsequently applied to analyse the historical development of tidal hydrodynamics and regime shifts induced by human interventions, thus linking the evolution of estuarine morphology to the dominant tidal hydrodynamics along the channel. The observed tidal regime shift is primarily caused by channel deepening, which substantially enlarged the estuary and reduced effective bottom friction resulting in faster celerity and stronger wave amplification. Our proposed method for quantifying the impacts of human interventions on tidal regime shifts can inform evidence-based guidelines for evaluating hydraulic responses to future engineering activities. 相似文献
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Tropical Cyclone (TC) Dahlia occurred adjacent to over the equatorial southeastern Indian Ocean during the period 26 November – 3 December 2017 and was observed by the Bailong buoy, which provides in situ observations of high-frequency variations in the upper ocean environment. The diurnal sea surface temperature (dSST) variabilities during different stages of the passage of TC Dahlia are studied. The dSST variability is rather weak during the TC passing stage in contrast to the strong ranges before (0.35 °C) and after (0.57 °C) the TC. Before the influence of TC Dahlia, the dSST presented significant regular variability with a peak in the afternoon and minimum value in the morning, which is similar to the even larger range that occurred after TC Dahlia. During the passage of TC Dahlia, dSST decreased dramatically, and a uniform variation was presented due to the absence of strong heat fluxes and stirring and upwelling induced by strong winds. Further analysis through a one-dimensional mixed layer model (Price-Weller-Pinkel, PWP) indicated that the dominant elements responsible for the different dSST variations during distinct stages of TC Dahlia were shortwave radiation and surface wind, which strongly impacted the dSST evolution during TC Dahlia. The asymmetrical wind strength was responsible for the asymmetry of dSST variation. 相似文献