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71.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2003,22(18-19):1859-1878
The Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) contains an extensive record of aeolian deposition through multiple glacial–interglacial cycles. Independent chronologies based on pedostratigraphy, magnetic susceptibility, radiocarbon and luminescence dating were developed for 79 sites and used to estimate aeolian mass accumulation rates (MARs) for marine isotope stages 1–5. The regional median value of MAR for Stage 2 is 310 g/m2/yr compared to an estimate of 65 g/m2/yr for Stage 5. Estimated MARs from individual sites for Stage 2 are approximately 4.3 times greater than MARs for Stage 5 and 2.1 times greater than for Stage 1. MAR values at individual sites are consistently highest in the northwest and lowest in the southwest of the CLP during all marine isotope stages. MARs estimated on sections through loess terraces are consistently higher than MAR estimates at other sites, indicating that local recycling of loess material from exposed river valley deposits has been significant throughout the last 130 kyr. Although the spatial and temporal patterns in MAR are robust, there are uncertainties about the magnitude of these changes due to (a) lack of bulk density measurements and uncertainties in the chronologies for individual sites, (b) site and chronological biases in the sampling used to derive regional estimates, and (c) the unquantified nature of human impact on accumulation rates during the late Holocene. Nevertheless, the records from the CLP pose a number of challenges which could be addressed by numerical models of the palaeo-dust cycle.  相似文献   
72.
We report initial results of data modeling and assimilation studies for several MU radar experiments. Various inputs to a one-dimensional ionospheric model are adjusted to provide agreement with observation and also to learn the sensitivity of the model to their variations. Certain observations are also used directly in the model to anchor or constrain its behavior. In particular, studies of the electron density from 100 to 500 km altitude in the ionosphere are carried out with the help of a theoretical model of O+, NO+, O+2 and N+2 densities and MU radar observations of the power, ion-drift and plasma-temperature profiles. Four typical cases are selected to study quantitatively the effects of the (A) perpendicular-north component of the plasma drift (15 December 1986), (B) atmospheric composition (7 October 1986), (C) solar EUV flux (2 August 1989) and (D) upper-boundary O+ density (5 October 1989) on the model NmF2, hmF2 and Ne profile, as well as on the neutral wind calculation from hmF2 and drift data. It is found that the measured vertical ion drift explains quantitatively well the measured hmF2 (particularly at low solar activity) while the model gives a better match with the measured Ne when it uses the hmF2-based wind rather than the measured plasma drift. Different model values of the atmospheric O/N2 ratio and EUV flux and different values of the upper-bound O+ density may modify not only NmF2 markedly but also hmF2: a lower O/N2 ratio results in higher hmF2; the EUVAC model gives higher hmF2 at high solar activity than does the EUV91 model; with a smaller upper-bound O+ density, hmF2 is lower by day but little changed by night. We specifically note that the meridional wind needed by the model to reproduce the observed hmF2 differed according to how well the model reproduced the observed NmF2. The uncertainties in the MSIS86 and EUV model predictions are also discussed. It is found that if the MSIS and EUV91 models are used together, the model gives an NmF2 higher than that measured at high solar activity. Thus the O/N2 ratio needs to be reduced from the MSIS value if EUV91 is used. If EUVAC is used, no large modification is required. At equinox for low solar activity, modeling with either EUV model produces NmF2 values lower than those measured, and so the true O/N2 ratio may be higher than that given by MSIS model.  相似文献   
73.
The global ionospheric total electron content maps (GIMs) provide integrated electron densities between the ground and the GPS satellite altitude (20,200 km). Satellite altimeter ionospheric delay corrections require integrated electron densities between the ground and altimeter satellite altitude. In the case of the Geosat Follow-On (GFO) spacecraft, flying at 800 km, we estimated that using GIM TEC data alone, up to a 2 cm path delay can be introduced into the GFO measurements for high solar activity period by not taking into account the electron content above this altitude. Furthermore, the GIMs can have errors of 20–30 TECU in low latitudes for high solar activity in areas where there is little GPS data (such as over the oceans). In this paper, we describe the results of ingesting GIM TEC data into the International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI-95) to mitigate these two effects.  相似文献   
74.
冬季降水无论对地面的生产生活还是对高空飞机航行都可能造成严重灾害,降水相态预报的准确性决定了冬季降水预报的成功,该文系统回顾了近几十年降水相态预报取得的成果.降水相态预报方法大致分为3类:第1类是基于观测或数值天气预报建立的指标以及回归方程,其中某些方法高度依赖数值天气预报模式准确率;第2类是基于数值天气预报模式的微物...  相似文献   
75.
2018年5月17—18日, 湖北省一次连续强风暴过程中先后出现了不同类型的强对流天气。利用FY-4A卫星、雷达和地基闪电观测等资料, 对相似环境背景下17日夜间鄂西北强对流(第1阶段, 下同)和18日上午鄂东强对流(第2阶段, 下同)的环境背景和天气系统特征等差异进行分析, 提炼卫星雷达和闪电资料对分类强对流的预报依据。(1)此次连续强风暴是副高稳定维持, 西南涡东移, 暖式切变线触发形成的, 强对流出现在副高外围西南气流和低涡东侧的辐合区中, 第1阶段短波快速东移后中高层转为冷平流, 上干下湿的层结利于冰雹和大风出现, 第2阶段则处在槽前暖湿气流中, 湿层深厚, 探空对流有效位能CAPE中等强度, 出现持续性强降水的概率较大。地面中尺度涡旋促使强对流发展维持, 18日冷空气南下是第2阶段雷电密集的主要原因。(2)鄂西北强对流正闪比例较大, 正闪峰值时刻和降雹时刻几乎一致, 零星地闪分布在强回波外侧35~50 dBZ回波中, ≥60 dBZ强回波中并未观测到地闪, 鄂东强对流闪电频次较多, 以负闪为主, 密集的负闪分布在35~55dBZ强回波区, 零星正闪和强回波外围25~35 dBZ层状云对应, 以上雷达特征对分类强对流预警都有很好的指示意义。(3) FY-4A闪电成像仪资料LMI、云顶亮温TBB低值区和二维地闪探测位置吻合, LMI总闪和二维地闪随TBB低值中心移动, 冰雹和对流性大风的TBB更低, 分布在230 K以下, 强降水则在250~270 K。   相似文献   
76.
利用1983—2017年湖北省汛期74个国家气象站逐小时降水数据,按长、短历时强降水事件分类研究强降水频次的时空特征,并运用普通最小二乘法(OLS)、地理加权回归(GWR)方法定量探讨强降水频次与地形因子之间的关系。(1) 湖北汛期长、短历时强降水年频次周期变化明显,年代际变化(≥10 a)存在1个主振荡模态,年代际以下尺度(<10 a)存在2个主振荡模态。(2) 长历时强降水旬频次在梅雨期达到顶峰,盛夏期减少,而短历时则在梅雨结束后的7月中旬出现跃升;长、短历时强降水频次日变化曲线都为单峰结构。(3) 湖北长、短历时强降水高频次站点多出现在地面存在准常定中尺度辐合线或涡旋的特定地形条件下。(4) 地理加权回归较传统普通最小二乘法显著提高了强降水频次与海拔高度、坡度的拟合效果。结合拟合系数显著性检验分析,地理加权回归不适用于样本偏少、站点稀疏的鄂西山地,更适用于多中小尺度地形的湖北中东部。(5) 地理加权回归模型中,海拔高度与长历时强降水频次在大别山东麓西侧正相关最大,在大别山西麓南侧负相关最大,坡度则正相反;海拔高度、坡度对短历时强降水频次的最大影响在大别山东麓西侧以及沿长江干流的低洼城市带武汉-黄石地区,武汉站分别为-0.20次/米、6.43次/度,这里地形坡度影响远超海拔高度。   相似文献   
77.
针对2016年湖北梅雨期3次(“6·19”、“7·5”和“7·19”)暴雨过程,首先对比了汉口站探空数据与汉口、咸宁两个风廓线雷达站水平风速、风向,发现“6·19”和“7·5”过程汉口风廓线雷达站3 km以下水平风速和探空数据较为接近,而3次过程中咸宁风廓线雷达站8 km以下水平风向、风速和汉口站探空数据基本吻合。在此基础上利用风廓线雷达资料并结合常规、加密自动气象站资料,对3次过程中水平风场、平均垂直速度及其变率、水平风速垂直切变、大气折射率结构常数(C_(n)^(2))等进行分析。结果表明:(1)降水开始前西南风速明显增大,中层干冷空气入侵和地面冷池形成的中尺度偏东气流是“6·19”过程50站出现大于等于17.2 m·s^(-1)大风的主要原因,“7·5”和“7·19”过程西南急流长时间维持及1 km以下的偏东气流则是短时强降水持续时间较长的诱因;(2)梅雨期暴雨期间风廓线雷达观测的水平风速垂直切变、平均垂直速度及其变率随高度变化较小,较强上升运动区域主要集中在4 km高度以下;(3)C_(n)^(2)显示强降水发生前大气水汽含量有一增加过程,且整层水汽含量深厚,C_(n)^(2)大值区的消失对应降水结束。  相似文献   
78.
BDS (BeiDou Navigation Satellite System) ground tracking stations are equipped with high accuracy atomic clocks, and they are synchronized with the BDS time scale (BDT) via the Precise Orbit Determination (POD) processing. During the periods of satellite maneuver and post-maneuver, station clocks are kept fixed as known values in the POD processing. To improve the real-time POD capability, station clocks need to be predicted. In this paper, the performance of three clock prediction models is evaluated, including quadratic polynomial model (QP), periodical term model (PM), and grey model (GM). The precision of clock fitting and prediction, as well as the performance of the prediction models in POD are compared. Data of six stations are used for test, and the results show that: the mean fitting accuracy of quadratic polynomial model, periodical term model, and grey model is 0.14 ns, 0.05 ns, 0.27 ns, respectively; the 1 h and 2 h prediction precision of the three models is 1.17 ns, 0.88 ns, 1.28 ns, and 2.72 ns, 2.09 ns, 2.53 ns, respectively. Applying the 1 h and 2 h predicted station clocks in the POD, the 3D orbit accuracy reaches the best using the periodical term model, while the radial accuracy of satellite orbit is rather close for the three models with the difference within 3 cm.  相似文献   
79.
Satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is playing an increasingly important role in the observation of coseismic surface deformation caused by earthquakes, and has been used to invert for subsurface fault structure and reveal earthquake source mechanisms. However, the mapping of complex non-planar or curved (e.g., listric-shaped) faults still remains a challenging task due to variable dips along the underground depth and the impenetrability of the deep crust. Here, we develop a set of new inversion algorithms to determine the listric fault geometry with InSAR- and GPS-observed surface deformation as the significant constraints. The fault surface with variable dip angles is discretized into consecutive sub-fault layers along the down-dip direction. A nonlinear iteration algorithm is used to minimize the objective function to determine the dip angle for each sub-fault layer. The proposed method is first tested using synthetic data to show its effectiveness for retrieval of varying fault geometry dips, and then applied to the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake that ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault for over 320 km along the southwest-northeast strike. The inversion shows that the dip angle of the seismogenic fault is up to 76° near the surface layer, and gradually decreases along the down-dip direction. A significant decrease in dip occurs within the depths of 6–15 km with a dip of 32° at a depth of 15 km. The dip angle decreases to 2° at a depth of 20 km, and finally merges with the subparallel PengGuan fault, which is basically consistent with geological investigations and seismic waveform data inversion. Using the inferred fault geometry, the slip model associated with the event is estimated. Five high-slip concentrations along the strike of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault are recognized. The inversion misfit of InSAR data is reduced to 7.1 cm with a significant improvement compared to previous studies.  相似文献   
80.
Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) are bacterial membrane lipids, ubiquitously present in soils and peat bogs, as well as in rivers, lakes and lake sediments. Their distribution in soil is controlled mainly by pH and mean annual air temperature, but the controls on their distribution in lake sediments are less well understood. Several studies have found a relationship between the distribution of branched GDGTs in lake sediments and average lake water pH, suggesting an aquatic source for them, besides that for soil transported to the lake via erosion. We sampled the surface water suspended particulate matter (SPM) from 23 lakes in Minnesota and Iowa (USA), that vary widely in pH, alkalinity and trophic state. The SPM was analyzed for the concentration and distributions of core lipid (presumed fossil origin) and intact polar lipid (IPL, presumed to derive from living cells) branched GDGTs. The presence of substantial amounts (18–48%) of IPL-derived branched GDGTs suggests that branched GDGTs are likely of autochthonous origin. Temperature estimates based on their distribution using lake-specific calibrations agree reasonably with water temperature at time of sampling and average air temperature of the season of sampling. Importantly, a strong correlation between the distribution of branched GDGTs and lake water pH was found (r2 0.72), in agreement with a predominant in situ production. An stronger correlation was found with lake water alkalinity (r2 0.83), although the underlying mechanism that controls the relationship is not understood. Our results raise the potential for reconstructing pH/alkalinity of past lake environments, which could provide important knowledge on past developments in lake water chemistry.  相似文献   
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